The Conservative leadership contest

保守黨領(lǐng)袖競選

Dealers and no-dealers

談判者與不愿談判者

Hardliners say it would be fine, moderates say it could be stopped. Both may be in for a nasty surprise

強(qiáng)硬派說這（脫歐）沒問題，溫和派說可以阻止。但兩方人士都可能遭遇令人不快的意外結(jié)果

詞匯

Nasty/令人不快的事物

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FULLY TEN leadership candidates faced a first ballot of Conservative MPs as we went to press. In hopes of being one of the final two to go through to a vote by party members, they are vying to promise the most extravagant tax and spending plans. But the immediate challenge for the winner, who will take office in late July, will be Brexit, which is due to happen three months later. And here the promises vary from instant renegotiation of Britain’s exit deal to withdrawing with no deal at all.

截至發(fā)稿時，共有10名領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人候選人面臨著保守黨議員的首輪投票。為了成為最后兩名通過黨員投票的候選人之一，他們正競相承諾最奢侈的稅收和支出計劃。但對于將于7月底上任的獲勝者來說，迫在眉睫的挑戰(zhàn)將是如何處理英國退歐事項，這將在3個月后執(zhí)行。這些承諾從立即重新談判英國脫歐協(xié)議，到?jīng)]有達(dá)成任何協(xié)議就脫歐，不一而足。

詞匯

Vying——vie/ ?爭；競爭

extravagant /奢侈的；浪費(fèi)的

take office/就職

The timing is tight. Parliament is likely to go into recess just after the new prime minister is installed, and the European Union will go on holiday. MPs come back in September, but for less than two weeks before their party conferences. Brussels will be preoccupied with getting a new commission approved by the European Parliament by November 1st. A summit of EU leaders on October 17th-18th will come just a fortnight before the Brexit deadline.

時間緊迫。新首相上任后，議會很可能立即休會，歐盟也將休假。國會議員們將于9月重返議會，但離他們的政黨會議只有不到兩周的時間。布魯塞爾將忙于在11月1日前讓歐洲議會批準(zhǔn)一個新的委員會。10月17日至18日舉行的歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會距離英國退歐的最后期限只有兩周時間。

詞匯

Recess/休息；休會

MP/國會議員（Member of Parliament）

Preoccupied/全神貫注的；心事重重的；被先占的

The EU has made clear that it will not reopen the withdrawal agreement, which includes the backstop to avert a hard border in Ireland. Even so, most Tory leadership candidates promise a swift renegotiation, and many are talking of a time limit to the backstop. Although a new prime minister would be listened to politely, it is fanciful to expect the EU to abandon the Irish—especially for a mistrusted hardliner such as Boris Johnson, the early favourite. That raises the chances of no-deal.

歐盟已明確表示，他們不會重議脫歐協(xié)議，其中包括為避免愛爾蘭邊境陷入僵局而提供的后備方案。即便如此，大多數(shù)保守黨領(lǐng)袖候選人承諾迅速重新談判，許多人都在談?wù)摵髠浞桨傅臅r限。盡管新首相的意見會被禮貌地聽取，但是期望歐盟拋棄愛爾蘭是不切實際的——尤其是對于像鮑里斯?約翰遜這樣不被信任的強(qiáng)硬派來說，他是早期的寵兒。這增加了無法達(dá)成協(xié)議的可能性。

詞匯

Backstop/后備方案

Avert/避免，防止；轉(zhuǎn)移

Tory /保守主義的；保守D員

Fanciful/想象的；稀奇的

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And here two misconceptions kick in. The first is the claim that Parliament is sure to prevent a no-deal Brexit. A majority of MPs have voted against the idea. In March backbenchers even took control of the agenda to call for an extension. The speaker of the Commons, John Bercow, is willing to change the usual rules if necessary. Somehow or other, the argument goes, Westminster would stop a prime minister who is bent on leaving without a deal.

這里有兩個誤解。第一種說法是，英國議會肯定會阻止“無協(xié)議退歐”。大多數(shù)議員投票反對這個想法。今年3月，后座議員甚至控制了會議議程，要求延期。下議院議長約翰·伯考(John Bercow)愿意在必要時改變常規(guī)規(guī)則。有人認(rèn)為，無論如何，威斯敏斯特都會阻止一位決意不達(dá)成協(xié)議就離開的首相。

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This may turn out to be correct, but it is not a certainty. No-deal is the default option in the absence of other action before October 31st. Any further extension of the deadline also requires the unanimous approval of EU governments. Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, believes they may agree, but adds that some exasperated leaders just want Brexit out of the way, deal or no deal.

這可能是正確的，但不是一定的。如果在10月31日之前沒有其他行動，無條件脫歐是默認(rèn)選項。任何對最后期限的進(jìn)一步延長的做法也需要得到歐盟各國政府的一致批準(zhǔn)。智庫歐洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)的查爾斯?格蘭特(Charles Grant)認(rèn)為，他們可能會同意這一觀點，但他補(bǔ)充稱，一些惱怒的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人只是想讓英國退歐問題得到解決，不管是否達(dá)成協(xié)議。

詞匯

Unanimous/全體一致的；意見一致的；無異議的

Exasperated/惱怒的；煩惱的；憤怒的

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Hardline leadership candidates like Dominic Raab have suggested suspending Parliament until November to stop it interfering. The attorney-general is reported to have called this unconstitutional but not illegal. Yet most candidates have condemned it as too anti-democratic to be a serious proposal. What is more, suspension is a royal prerogative, and no serious leader would want to draw the queen into political controversy.

像多米尼克·拉布這樣的強(qiáng)硬派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人候選人建議暫停議會直到11月，以阻止其干預(yù)。據(jù)報道，總檢察長稱此舉違憲，但并不違法。然而，大多數(shù)候選人譴責(zé)該提案過于反民主，不可能成為一個嚴(yán)肅的提案。更重要的是，停職是王室的特權(quán)，沒有哪個嚴(yán)肅的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人愿意把女王卷入政治爭議。

詞匯

attorney-general /司法部長；總檢察長；首席檢察官

suspension/懸??；暫停；停職

prerogative/特權(quán)

Still, there are limits to what MPs can do. The March gambit—taking over the parliamentary timetable to pass a law demanding another extension—relied on there being legislation or an amendable motion before MPs. Brexiteers believe they can avoid both. On June 12th Labour lost by 11 votes an attempt to secure a day to try to block no-deal by law. It may have another go, but a new prime minister could deny it the necessary debating time.

盡管如此，議員們所能做的還是有限的。3月的這場鬧劇——接管了議會的時間表，通過了一項要求延長期限的法律——這一切都發(fā)生在議員們的面前，而這些鬧劇的發(fā)生依賴于英國立法或是說“可修正”的法案（這里參考之前我翻譯的一篇講英國的法律沒有章法的文章）。脫歐派認(rèn)為他們可以避免這兩種情況。6月12日，工黨以11票之差輸?shù)袅嗽噲D通過法律阻止無協(xié)議脫歐的那天。工黨們可能會再次嘗試，但新首相可能會拒絕給予必要的辯論時間。

詞匯

Gambit/話題

Amendable/可修正的

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The nuclear option might be a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. Yet any such vote is likely only in late October, after the EU summit. It might not be carried, as Tory MPs fear an election.

對核武器的使用權(quán)可能是對首相投不信任票。然而，任何此類投票都可能在10月底歐盟峰會之后進(jìn)行。由于保守黨議員擔(dān)心選舉，該法案可能無法通過。

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Even if it were, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act allows 14 days for a new prime minister to try to form a new government. If no one could do so, the outgoing prime minister could defer the date of a new election beyond October 31st. Hannah White of the Institute for Government, another think-tank, concludes that, though MPs may do their utmost to stop no-deal, a determined prime minister might thwart them.

即使是這樣，《定期議會法案》也允許新首相在14天內(nèi)組建新政府。如果沒有人能做到這一點，即將離任的首相可以將新選舉的日期推遲到10月31日之后。另一家智庫政府研究所的漢娜?懷特得出結(jié)論，盡管議員們可能會盡最大努力阻止“無協(xié)議脫歐”，但一位堅定的首相可能會阻撓他們。

詞匯

Thwart/反對；阻礙

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This brings in the second big misconception, which is that no-deal would soon lead to friendly talks on a speedy free-trade agreement similar to Canada’s, during which both sides could agree not to impose trade barriers. This is highly unlikely. A no-deal Brexit in October would be acrimonious, especially if a new prime minister refused to pay the ￡39bn ($50bn) that Britain has agreed it owes. That would scupper hopes for a series of “mini-deals” to reduce disruption, as some candidates promise.

這帶來了第二大誤解，即不達(dá)成協(xié)議將很快導(dǎo)致就一項類似于加拿大的快速自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定進(jìn)行友好談判，在談判中雙方可以同意不設(shè)置貿(mào)易壁壘。這是極不可能的。如果英國在10月份達(dá)成無協(xié)議脫歐協(xié)議，將是一場惡戰(zhàn)，尤其是如果一位新首相拒絕償還英國同意償還的390億英鎊(合500億美元)債務(wù)。正如一些候選人承諾的那樣，這將使一系列旨在減少混亂的“迷你協(xié)議”的希望破滅。

詞匯

Speedy/

Acrimonious/嚴(yán)厲的；辛辣的；刻薄的

Any bid to start trade negotiations would see the EU putting all the demands in the withdrawal agreement back on the table as preconditions. It would also be impossible to exploit the rules of the World Trade Organisation that can allow trade barriers to be avoided. The WTO’s non-discrimination provisions permit this only if both parties agree and are well on the way to forming a new customs union or free-trade deal, neither of which would be the case after a no-deal Brexit.

任何啟動貿(mào)易談判的努力，都將看到歐盟將退出協(xié)議中的所有要求作為先決條件扯回到談判桌上。利用世界貿(mào)易組織(wto)的規(guī)則來避免貿(mào)易壁壘也是不可能的。世貿(mào)組織的非歧視條款只有在兩黨都同意并在建立新的關(guān)稅同盟或自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的道路上進(jìn)展順利的情況下才允許這樣做，而在無協(xié)議脫歐之后，這兩種情況都不會發(fā)生。

詞匯

Provision/規(guī)定；條款

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No-deal also has serious legal implications. Britain would become a third country. That not only implies tariffs and non-tariff barriers, but also falling out of most of the EU’s regulatory agencies. Membership of the Europol crime-fighting agency would lapse, as would eligibility to use the European Arrest Warrant. Replacing any of these would be time-consuming.

不達(dá)成協(xié)議還會帶來嚴(yán)重的法律后果。英國將成為第三個國家。這不僅意味著關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅壁壘，而且還意味著大多數(shù)歐盟監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)將退出。歐洲刑警組織打擊犯罪機(jī)構(gòu)的成員資格將失效，使用歐洲逮捕令的資格也將失效。其中任何一個法規(guī)的更替都將是耗時的。

詞匯

Implication/暗指，暗示

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And there is a treaty obstacle. So far Brexit negotiations have come under Article 50, allowing a deal to be agreed by a majority of EU governments and approved only by the European Parliament. Once Britain is a third country, any negotiations would fall under a different provision, probably Article 218, which requires not just unanimous agreement but also ratification by all national and several regional parliaments. After Britain had repudiated the negotiated withdrawal agreement, the temptation for one of these bodies to reject any replacement deal would be large.

此外還有一個條約障礙。到目前為止，英國脫歐談判是根據(jù)《里斯本條約》第50條進(jìn)行的，該條款允許協(xié)議得到歐盟多數(shù)國家政府的同意，并僅得到歐洲議會(European Parliament)的批準(zhǔn)。一旦英國成為第三國，任何談判都將受到另一項條款的約束，很可能是第218條，這不僅需要一致同意，還需要所有國家和幾個地區(qū)議會的批準(zhǔn)。在英國否決了經(jīng)談判達(dá)成的撤離協(xié)議后，這些體制中任何一方拒絕任何替代協(xié)議的誘惑都將是巨大的。

詞匯

Ratification/ ?批準(zhǔn)；承認(rèn)，認(rèn)可

Repudiate/拒絕；否定

The risk of a no-deal Brexit under a new prime minister is greater than many think, and the consequences more serious. Any would-be Tory leader should acknowledge this. The worry is that many of them don’t even seem to realise it.

在新首相的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，不達(dá)成協(xié)議的英國脫歐風(fēng)險比許多人想象的要大，其后果也更為嚴(yán)重。任何未來的保守黨領(lǐng)袖都應(yīng)該承認(rèn)這一點。令人擔(dān)憂的是,他們中的許多人甚至似乎意識不到,

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