What a difference a couple of years makes. In spring 2020 the murder of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, by a police officer in Minneapolis brought millions of people out of covid-19 lockdowns all over the world and onto the streets. After a wave of furious protests, and riots, some politicians on the American left adopted the protesters’ slogan: that the way to ensure that black lives mattered was to “defund the police”. The Democratic mayors of New York and San Francisco, among others, promised to cut police budgets.

幾年的時間改變了多少。2020年春天，明尼阿波利斯一名警察謀殺了手無寸鐵的黑人喬治·弗洛伊德，這使世界各地?cái)?shù)百萬人擺脫了新冠的封鎖限制，走上街頭。在一波憤怒的抗議和騷亂之后，一些美國左翼政客采用了抗議者的口號：確保黑人的生命受到重視的方法就是“撤資警察”。紐約和舊金山等地的民主黨市長承諾削減警察預(yù)算。

Today, few people think that is a good idea. As our special report in this issue explains, murders have surged in America. In 2020 the number of people killed was 28% higher than it was in 2019—the single biggest increase recorded in more than a century. In 2021 many cities saw further rises. Almost nowhere has been spared, including suburbs and rural areas.?

如今，很少有人認(rèn)為“撤資警察”是一個好主意。正如我們本期的特別報道所解釋的那樣，美國的謀殺案激增。2020年，死亡人數(shù)比2019年高出28%，這是一個多世紀(jì)以來的僅有一次的最大增幅。2021年，許多城市的死亡人數(shù)進(jìn)一步上漲。幾乎沒有地方可以幸免，包括郊區(qū)和農(nóng)村地區(qū)。

By rich-world standards, America is a staggeringly violent country. The murder rate is six times higher than it is in Britain, France or Germany and 20 times higher than in Japan. In 2020, one in 700 black men aged 18 to 24 was murdered. Violence is now not only cutting short the lives of over 24,000 people a year. It is also devastating entire communities, as businesses and middle-class people leave crime-ridden neighbourhoods. Plausible estimates put the social cost of murder at over $400bn per year, around 2% of America’s gdp.?

按照發(fā)達(dá)國家的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，美國是一個暴力程度驚人的國家。其謀殺率是英國、法國和德國的6倍，是日本的20倍。2020年，每700名18至24歲的黑人男子中就有一人被謀殺。暴力現(xiàn)在不僅每年縮短了24000多人的生命。隨著企業(yè)和中產(chǎn)階級離開犯罪猖獗的街區(qū)，它也在摧毀整個社區(qū)。據(jù)合理估計(jì)，每年謀殺的社會成本超過4000億美元，約占美國GDP的2%。

Republicans campaigning for the midterm elections have tarred Democrats as tough on cops and soft on crime. No serious Democratic politician now promises to defund the police. Last month President Joe Biden proposed to direct $37bn to tackle crime, partly through the hiring of 100,000 more police officers. Though some activists, such as the American Civil Liberties Union, which criticised Mr Biden’s plan, pretend otherwise, this is a problem that cannot be solved without investment in policing.

參加中期選舉的共和黨人指責(zé)民主黨人對警察強(qiáng)硬，對犯罪軟弱?，F(xiàn)在沒有一個嚴(yán)肅的民主黨政治家承諾撤資。上月，美國總統(tǒng)喬?拜登提議撥出370億美元用于打擊犯罪，部分方式是新增10萬名警察。盡管一些活動人士，如批評拜登計(jì)劃的美國公民自由聯(lián)盟，佯稱這是一個不投資于治安就無法解決的問題。

The rise in violence since 2020 has many causes. Gun sales have soared; the pandemic shut many social services. But the fact that violence has not risen as much in any other comparable country suggests that the American public’s loss of faith in their police that summer played a part. People in high-crime areas became more reluctant to call or co-operate with the cops. Many officers, sensing a loss of political support, pulled back from such places, or stayed in their cars.

自2020年以來暴力事件的增加有許多原因。槍支銷量飆升；疫情導(dǎo)致許多社會服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)關(guān)閉。但事實(shí)上，暴力事件在其他任何類似國家都沒有上升那么多，這表明美國公眾在那個夏天對警察失去信心是一個原因。在犯罪率高的地區(qū)，人們更不愿意給警察打電話或與警察合作。許多警官感到失去了政治支持，從這些地方撤退，或留在自己的車?yán)铩?/p>

The share of murders that result in an arrest or identification of a dead suspect has dropped from about 70% in the 1980s to 54% in 2020. If criminals get away with murder, others will resort to “street justice”. As Robert Peel, founder of London’s police, argued, good policing requires “the willing co-operation of the public”.

導(dǎo)致逮捕或確認(rèn)死亡嫌疑人的謀殺案的比例已從20世紀(jì)80年代的約70%下降到2020年的54%。如果罪犯逍遙法外，其他人將訴諸“街頭正義”。正如倫敦警察的創(chuàng)始人羅伯特?皮爾所言，良好的治安需要“公眾的自愿合作”。

The protesters who raged that hot summer were right to demand change. But that should mean reform, not retrenchment. Mr Biden’s programme to hire more cops is a necessary start. Though it spends vastly more on prisons, America devotes roughly 20% less as a share of its gdp on policing than the European Union average.

在那個炎熱的夏天，憤怒的抗議者要求改變是正確的。但這應(yīng)該意味著改革，而不是緊縮開支。拜登雇傭更多警察的計(jì)劃是一個必要的開始。盡管美國在監(jiān)獄上的投入遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于歐盟，但美國在治安上的投入占GDP的比例卻比歐盟平均水平低20%左右。

However, more money will produce lasting improvement only if it is coupled with sustained reform aimed at rebuilding trust in the police. In the 1990s New York and Los Angeles both proved that policy change can reduce violence dramatically. Police chiefs should devote more of their officers to investigating and prosecuting serious violence. Training should focus more clearly on teaching police officers that they are public servants, not warriors. Mayors and prosecutors should not back down from firing and indeed locking up those who use unjustifiable violence. And cops who do not want to get on board should find another profession.

不過，只有與旨在重建對警察信任的持續(xù)改革相結(jié)合，更多的資金才能產(chǎn)生持久的改善。在20世紀(jì)90年代，紐約和洛杉磯都證明了政策改變可以顯著減少暴力。警察局長應(yīng)該投入更多警力調(diào)查和起訴嚴(yán)重暴力事件。培訓(xùn)應(yīng)該更明確地集中在教導(dǎo)警察他們是公仆，而不是武士。市長和檢察官應(yīng)該解雇那些使用不合理暴力的人，甚至將他們關(guān)進(jìn)監(jiān)獄。那些不愿意加入的警察應(yīng)該另謀職業(yè)。