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【中英】經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人| 這屆年輕人錢花在哪里了?

2023-01-17 10:36 作者:二寶學(xué)長(zhǎng)  | 我要投稿

How the young spend their money


They are woke, broke and complicated. Businesses should take note

Young people have always perplexed their elders. Today’s youngsters are no different; indeed, they are baffling. They have thin wallets and expensive tastes. They prize convenience and a social conscience. They want their shopping to be at once seamless and personal. They crave authenticity while being constantly immersed in an ersatz digital world. As these youngsters start spending in earnest, brands are trying to understand what these walking paradoxes want and how they shop. The answers will define the next era of consumerism.

年輕人總是讓他們的長(zhǎng)輩感到困惑。今天的年輕人也不例外;的確,他們讓人困惑。他們沒(méi)錢但品味很高。他們崇尚便利和社會(huì)良知。他們希望他們的購(gòu)物既是無(wú)縫的又是個(gè)人的。他們渴望真實(shí)性,同時(shí)又不斷沉浸在一個(gè)虛假的數(shù)字世界中。隨著這些年輕人開(kāi)始認(rèn)真地消費(fèi),品牌商正試圖了解這些行走的矛盾體想要什么以及他們?nèi)绾钨?gòu)物。這些答案將決定下一個(gè)消費(fèi)時(shí)代的到來(lái)。

Their absolute numbers are formidable. The European Union is home to nearly 125m people between the ages of ten (who will become consumers in the next few years) and 34. America has another 110m of these Gen-zs and millennials, a third of the population. The total annual spending of households headed by American Gen-zs and millennials hit $2.7trn in 2021, around 30% of the total. Although they are the group with the least to spend per head today, by 2026 American Gen-zs (those born between 1997 and 2012) may make up the majority of the country’s shoppers.

他們的絕對(duì)數(shù)量是非常大的。歐盟擁有近 1.25 億年齡在 10 歲(將在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)成為消費(fèi)者)和 34 歲之間的人。美國(guó)還有 1.1 億這樣的 "z 世代 "和 "千禧一代",占人口的三分之一。2021 年,以美國(guó) Z 世代和千禧一代為戶主的家庭年支出總額達(dá)到 27 萬(wàn)億美元,約占總數(shù)的 30%。盡管他們是今天人均消費(fèi)最少的群體,但到 2026 年,美國(guó) Z 世代(1997 年至 2012 年出生的人)可能會(huì)占到全國(guó)購(gòu)物者的大多數(shù)。

A good place to start dissecting the psyche of the young consumer is to consider the economy that has moulded them. At the older end of the scale, today’s 30-somethings came of age in the midst of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the ensuing recession. Their younger peers had a bit more luck, beginning their careers in years when tightening labour markets had pushed up wages. Until, that is, the covid-19 pandemic upended many of their lives.

剖析年輕消費(fèi)者的心理的一個(gè)好地方是考慮塑造他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。在規(guī)模較大的一端,今天的 30 多歲的人是在 2007-09 年的全球金融危機(jī)和隨后的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中長(zhǎng)大的。他們的年輕同齡人則比較幸運(yùn),在勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊縮推高工資的年代開(kāi)始他們的職業(yè)生涯。直到新冠疫情改變了他們的許多生活。

These two big shocks, of the sort that their parents were mostly spared in a more benign economic era between 1990 and the mid-2000s, have fostered pessimism among the young people who experienced them. A study by McKinsey, a consultancy, published in 2022, found that a quarter of Gen-zs doubted they would be able to afford to retire. Less than half believed they would ever own a home.

這兩次大的沖擊,是他們的父母在 1990 年至 2000 年代中期的一個(gè)更良性的經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代大多幸免于難的那種沖擊,在經(jīng)歷過(guò)這些沖擊的年輕人中培養(yǎng)了悲觀情緒。麥肯錫咨詢公司在 2022 年發(fā)表的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),四分之一的 Z 世代懷疑他們是否能夠負(fù)擔(dān)得起退休費(fèi)用。不到一半的人認(rèn)為他們會(huì)擁有一個(gè)家。

Uncertainty about the future may be encouraging impulsive spending of limited resources in the present. The young were disrupted more by covid than other generations and are now enjoying the rebound. According to McKinsey, American millennials (born between 1980 and the late 1990s) spent 17% more in the year through to March 2022 than they did the year before. Despite a short-term rebound from the dark days of the pandemic, their long-term prospects are less good. American millennials and Gen-zs have accumulated less wealth than Gen-x or Boomers at the same age.

對(duì)未來(lái)的不確定性可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)人們?cè)诂F(xiàn)在沖動(dòng)地花費(fèi)有限的資源。與其他幾代人相比,年輕人受疫情的干擾更大,現(xiàn)在正在享受恢復(fù)。根據(jù)麥肯錫的數(shù)據(jù),美國(guó)千禧一代(出生于 1980 年至 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代末)在截至 2022 年 3 月的一年中的支出比前一年多 17%。盡管短期內(nèi)從大流行病的黑暗時(shí)期回升,但他們的長(zhǎng)期前景卻不那么好。美國(guó)千禧一代和 z 世代積累的財(cái)富比同齡的 x 世代或 boomers 少。

Easy access to means of spreading payments may also encourage splashing out. According to another McKinsey survey from October 2022, 45% of Europeans in their teens and early 20s intended to make some kind of splurge in the next three months whereas 83% of baby boomers, born before 1964, said “no” to such profligacy. Forrester, a market-research firm, found that most users of “buy now, pay later” apps are a few years either side of 20. Megan Scott, a 20-year-old student from London, speaks for many of her peers by admitting that, when it comes to shopping, she has no restraint—until, she chuckles, the bill arrives.

分期付款的方式更容易鼓勵(lì)揮霍。 根據(jù)麥肯錫 2022 年 10 月的另一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,45%的十幾歲和二十出頭的歐洲人打算在未來(lái)三個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)行某種揮霍,而在 1964 年以前出生的嬰兒潮一代中,83%的人對(duì)這種揮霍表示 "不"。市場(chǎng)研究公司 Forrester 發(fā)現(xiàn),大多數(shù) "先買后付 "應(yīng)用程序的用戶都在 20 歲左右。來(lái)自倫敦的 20 歲學(xué)生梅根-斯科特 (Megan Scott) 代表她的許多同齡人承認(rèn),在購(gòu)物方面,她沒(méi)有任何約束,直到她笑著說(shuō),賬單到了。

In many ways youngsters’ shopping habits—like their lives—are defined by the “attention economy”, where buying stuff has been made far easier without a trip to the shops. A proliferation of social media means that there are many new ways of attracting consumers’ eyeballs. Most young shoppers never knew a world without smartphones. More than two-thirds of 18- to 34-year-old Americans spend four hours or more on their devices each day. A heightened expectation of convenience comes with being raised in the age of Airbnb, Amazon and Uber. Young people want their shopping to be totally hiccup-free.

在許多方面,年輕人的購(gòu)物習(xí)慣和他們的生活一樣,都是由 "注意力經(jīng)濟(jì) "決定的,在這里,購(gòu)買東西已經(jīng)變得非常容易,不用去商店。社交媒體的激增意味著有許多新的方式來(lái)吸引消費(fèi)者的眼球。大多數(shù)年輕的購(gòu)物者從來(lái)不知道一個(gè)沒(méi)有智能手機(jī)的世界。超過(guò)三分之二的 18 至 34 歲的美國(guó)人每天花四個(gè)小時(shí)或更多時(shí)間在他們的設(shè)備上。在 Airbnb、亞馬遜和 Uber 時(shí)代長(zhǎng)大的人,對(duì)便利性的期望越來(lái)越高。年輕人希望他們的購(gòu)物能完全不打嗝。

The light-speed online world also appears to have lowered tolerances for long delivery times. A study by Salesforce, a business-software giant, found that Gen-z?Americans are the likeliest of all age groups to want their groceries delivered within an hour. They are more likely than the rest of the population to use their phones to pay for shopping, according to Forrester, and are put off if the range of payment methods is limited.

光速的網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界似乎也降低了對(duì)漫長(zhǎng)的交貨時(shí)間的容忍度。商業(yè)軟件巨頭 Salesforce 的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在所有年齡組中,Z 世代的美國(guó)人最希望他們的雜貨在一小時(shí)內(nèi)送到。根據(jù) Forrester 的數(shù)據(jù),他們比其他人群更有可能使用手機(jī)支付購(gòu)物,如果支付方式的范圍有限,他們就會(huì)放棄。

These “always-on purchasers”, as McKinsey has christened them, often shun a weekly shop for quicker fixes of everything from fashion to furniture. They like subscriptions, frequently favouring shared access to products rather than outright ownership. This has buoyed online-rental sites (like Rent the Runway for fashion) and streaming services. Investors may have fallen out of love with Netflix but Gen-z?has not; the company remains one of the most popular brands among that age group in America.

正如麥肯錫所稱,這些 "永遠(yuǎn)在線的購(gòu)買者",通常不愿意每周購(gòu)物,而是為了快速解決從時(shí)尚到家具的一切問(wèn)題。他們喜歡訂閱,經(jīng)常傾向于分享產(chǎn)品的使用權(quán),而不是徹底的所有權(quán)。這為在線租賃網(wǎng)站(如 Rent the Runway 時(shí)裝)和流媒體服務(wù)提供了動(dòng)力。投資者可能已經(jīng)不愛(ài) Netflix 了,但 Z 世代并沒(méi)有;該公司仍然是美國(guó)該年齡組中最受歡迎的品牌之一。

The internet has also changed the way the young discover brands. Print, billboard or television advertising has given way to social media. Instagram, part of Meta’s empire, and TikTok, a Chinese-owned video-sharing app, are where the young look for inspiration, particularly for goods where looks matter such as fashion, beauty and sportswear. TikTok’s user-generated videos can propel even tiny brands to speedy viral fame. Such apps are increasingly adding features that allow users to shop without ever leaving the platform. According to McKinsey, by 2021 six in ten Americans under the age of 25 had completed a purchase on a social-media site. Some are following the Chinese model of “social commerce” by mixing live-streamed entertainment with the chance to shop.

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)也改變了年輕人發(fā)現(xiàn)品牌的方式。印刷品、廣告牌或電視廣告已經(jīng)讓位于社交媒體。 Instagram 和 TikTok 是年輕人尋找靈感的地方,尤其是對(duì)于時(shí)尚、美容和運(yùn)動(dòng)服裝等外觀重要的商品。TikTok 的用戶生成的視頻甚至可以將小品牌能夠像病毒一樣迅速傳播。 這類應(yīng)用程序越來(lái)越多地增加了允許用戶不離開(kāi)平臺(tái)就能購(gòu)物的功能。根據(jù)麥肯錫的數(shù)據(jù),到 2021 年,每 10 個(gè) 25 歲以下的美國(guó)人中就有 6 個(gè)在社交媒體網(wǎng)站上完成過(guò)購(gòu)買。一些人正在效仿中國(guó)的 "社交商務(wù) "模式,將現(xiàn)場(chǎng)直播的娛樂(lè)活動(dòng)與購(gòu)物機(jī)會(huì)相結(jié)合。

For the time being, though, young Western consumers prefer to make purchases outside social media, and often scour sites like Amazon for bargains from the brands they have discovered. According to a survey by Cowen, an investment bank, spending on subscriptions to Prime, Amazon’s home delivery and entertainment service, trails only phone bills, food and travel in young people’s shopping baskets.

但就目前而言,年輕的西方消費(fèi)者更喜歡在社交媒體之外進(jìn)行購(gòu)買,并經(jīng)常在亞馬遜等網(wǎng)站上尋找他們發(fā)現(xiàn)的品牌的便宜貨。根據(jù)投資銀行 Cowen 的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,在年輕人的購(gòu)物籃中,訂閱 Prime(亞馬遜的送貨和娛樂(lè)服務(wù))的支出僅次于電話費(fèi)、食品和旅游。

Physical shops are not entirely shunned, as long as the experience feels personal and, ideally, integrates virtual and physical worlds. Nike, for example, is successfully targeting young buyers by allowing them to design their own trainers on its website, to pick up in person after attending an in-store dance class, and then encouraging them to tag the brand in a review on TikTok or Instagram.

實(shí)體店并不完全被回避,只要體驗(yàn)感覺(jué)是個(gè)人的,而且最好是將虛擬和實(shí)體世界結(jié)合起來(lái)。例如,耐克公司成功地瞄準(zhǔn)了年輕買家,允許他們?cè)谄渚W(wǎng)站上設(shè)計(jì)自己的運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋,在參加店內(nèi)舞蹈課后親自去取,然后鼓勵(lì)他們?cè)?TikTok 或 Instagram 上給品牌做評(píng)論。

The new world of shopping has also allowed the young to take a more informed view of the companies that they buy from. The attention economy’s information overload has not dulled youngsters’ senses. On the contrary, it appears to have made them hypersensitive, especially to any brand that pretends to be something it isn’t. Edelman, a public-relations firm, found that seven in ten Gen-zs across six countries fact-check claims made in adverts. Citing survey data that show some teens have stopped using certain brands because of their shady ethics, Forrester has taken to calling young consumers “truth barometers”.

新的購(gòu)物世界也讓年輕人對(duì)他們購(gòu)買的公司有了更明智的看法。注意力經(jīng)濟(jì)的信息過(guò)載并沒(méi)有使年輕人的感官變得遲鈍。相反,它似乎使他們變得敏感,尤其是對(duì)任何假裝自己不是的品牌。公共關(guān)系公司愛(ài)德曼 (Edelman) 發(fā)現(xiàn),在六個(gè)國(guó)家中,十分之七的青少年會(huì)對(duì)廣告中的說(shuō)法進(jìn)行事實(shí)核查。Forrester 引用調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,一些青少年因?yàn)槟承┢放频牟坏赖滦袨槎V故褂眠@些品牌,并將年輕消費(fèi)者稱為 "真相晴雨表"。

Brands that do not match up to the long list of requirements had better watch out. If they do not get what they want and how they want it, youngsters are happy to try something new. According to another McKinsey survey from October 2022, nine in ten Gen-z?and millennial Europeans had changed how they shopped, where they shopped or the brands they bought in the previous three months.

那些不符合一長(zhǎng)串要求的品牌最好小心點(diǎn)。如果他們沒(méi)有得到他們想要的東西和他們想要的方式,年輕人很樂(lè)意嘗試新的東西。根據(jù)麥肯錫 2022 年 10 月的另一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,在過(guò)去的三個(gè)月里,十分之九的歐洲 Z 世代和千禧一代改變了他們的購(gòu)物方式、購(gòu)物地點(diǎn)或他們購(gòu)買的品牌。

How the young shop is clearly in flux. What they buy, too, is changing. What older generations consider discretionary, such as wellness and luxury, have become essentials. Self-care is all the rage. On the hunt for clothing that will set them apart, the young are turning to posh brands at an ever more tender age. According to Bain, a consultancy, the average Gen-z?shopper makes their first luxury purchase when they are 15; their 30-something counterparts were 19 when they entered the luxury market. Some buy posh items as a hedge, believing that such items can hold value even during tough times. Helpfully, these can now be traded easily on second-hand sales platforms such as Vinted and Vestiaire Collective.

年輕人的購(gòu)物方式顯然在不斷變化。他們購(gòu)買的東西也在變化。老一代人認(rèn)為可自由支配的東西,如健康和奢侈品,已經(jīng)成為必需品。自我保健是所有的流行趨勢(shì)。為了尋找能讓他們與眾不同的服裝,年輕人在越來(lái)越小的年齡就轉(zhuǎn)向了高檔品牌。根據(jù)咨詢公司貝恩(Bain)的數(shù)據(jù),Z 世代的購(gòu)物者平均在 15 歲時(shí)購(gòu)買第一件奢侈品;他們 30 多歲的同行在 19 歲時(shí)進(jìn)入奢侈品市場(chǎng)。一些人購(gòu)買高檔物品作為保值,認(rèn)為這些物品即使在困難時(shí)期也能保持價(jià)值。令人欣慰的是,這些東西現(xiàn)在可以在 Vinted 和 Vestiaire Collective 等二手銷售平臺(tái)上輕松交易。

More broadly, young consumers profess to be more values-driven than previous generations. Research by Forrester shows that this attitude is even more common among teenagers and 20-somethings than among slightly older counterparts. Some of these values are centred around identity (race, gender and so on). Others stem from things the young care about, such as climate change.?kpmg, an accounting firm, found that the Gen-z?crowd across 16 countries worry more about climate change and natural disasters than any other generation. According to a survey by Credit Suisse, a bank, the young in emerging markets are more fretful still.

更廣泛地說(shuō),年輕消費(fèi)者自稱比前幾代人更注重價(jià)值觀。Forrester 的研究表明,這種態(tài)度在青少年和 20 多歲的年輕人中甚至比年齡稍大的人更普遍。這些價(jià)值觀有些是圍繞著身份(種族、性別等)。會(huì)計(jì)公司 Kpmg 發(fā)現(xiàn),16 個(gè)國(guó)家的 Z 世代人群比其他任何一代人都更擔(dān)心氣候變化和自然災(zāi)害。根據(jù)瑞士信貸銀行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,新興市場(chǎng)的年輕人更加憂慮。

Revealed preferences paint a more nuanced picture. On the one hand, Forrester has identified Patagonia, a premium outdoor-clothing brand with a record of green do-goodery, as a Gen-z?favourite in the rich world. The young are the most likely of all age groups to try—and stick with—alternative proteins such as oat milk and plant-based meat alternatives. But not at any price. Credit Suisse found that on average, consumers globally will pay an average premium of 9% for more environmentally friendly grub. Young consumers in the rich world are less willing to pay premiums for these alternatives than their counterparts in emerging markets.

揭示的偏好描繪了一個(gè)更細(xì)微的畫(huà)面。一方面,F(xiàn)orrester 認(rèn)為 Patagonia 是一個(gè)高端戶外服裝品牌,有綠色環(huán)保的記錄,是富人世界中 Z 世代的最愛(ài)。年輕人是所有年齡段中最有可能嘗試并堅(jiān)持使用替代性蛋白質(zhì)的群體,如燕麥牛奶和植物性肉類替代品。但不是以任何價(jià)格。瑞士信貸發(fā)現(xiàn),平均而言,全球消費(fèi)者將為更環(huán)保的食物支付平均 9%的溢價(jià)。與新興市場(chǎng)的消費(fèi)者相比,富裕國(guó)家的年輕消費(fèi)者不太愿意為這些替代品支付溢價(jià)。

Youngsters’ appetite for instant gratification is also fuelling some distinctly ungreen consumer habits. The young generation has virtually invented quick commerce, observes Isabelle Allen of?kpmg. And that convenience is affordable because it fails to price in all its externalities. The environmental benefits of eating plants rather than meat can be quickly undone if meals are delivered in small batches by a courier on a petrol-powered motorbike. Shein, a Chinese clothes retailer that is the fastest in fast fashion, tops surveys as a Gen-z?favourite in the West, despite being criticised for waste; its fashionable garments are cheap enough to throw on once and then throw away. Like everyone else the young are, then, contradictory—because, like everyone else, they are only human.

年輕人對(duì)即時(shí)滿足的胃口也助長(zhǎng)了一些明顯不綠色的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣。Kpmg 的 Isabelle Allen 指出,年輕一代實(shí)際上已經(jīng)發(fā)明了快速商務(wù)。這種便利是可以承受的,因?yàn)樗鼪](méi)有對(duì)其所有的外部因素進(jìn)行定價(jià)。如果由騎著汽油摩托車的快遞員小批量送餐,那么吃植物而不是吃肉的環(huán)境效益就會(huì)迅速消失。中國(guó)的服裝零售商 Shein 在快速時(shí)尚領(lǐng)域發(fā)展最快,盡管被批評(píng)為浪費(fèi),但在西方的調(diào)查中,Shein 是年輕人的最愛(ài);其時(shí)尚的服裝足夠便宜,穿一次就扔掉。像其他所有人一樣,年輕人是矛盾的—因?yàn)?,像其他所有人一樣,他們只是人類?/p>


【中英】經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人| 這屆年輕人錢花在哪里了?的評(píng)論 (共 條)

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