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Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think

通貨膨脹將比市場想象的更難降低

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GIVEN HOW woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.

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鑒于股票和債券投資在過去大約一年的時(shí)間里表現(xiàn)如此糟糕，你可能沒有注意到金融市場正因樂觀的情緒而上揚(yáng)。然而，已經(jīng)沒有方式來描述今天的投資者，他們自秋季以來越來越多地打賭通貨膨脹，這個(gè)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中的最大問題，將會(huì)平靜地消失。許多人認(rèn)為，央行將在2023年底降息，這將有助于世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體——最重要的是美國——避免衰退。投資者正在“金發(fā)女孩經(jīng)濟(jì)”股票定價(jià)，在這種經(jīng)濟(jì)中，公司利潤健康增長，而資本成本下降。

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In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the S&P 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.

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出于對(duì)這一可喜變化的預(yù)期，美國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)自年初以來已經(jīng)上漲了近8%。公司的估值約為其預(yù)期收益的18倍——按疫情后的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看較低，但處于2002年至2019年期間普遍存在的區(qū)間高點(diǎn)。到2024年，這些收入預(yù)計(jì)將激增近10%。

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It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying blessings of a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.

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不僅僅是美國市場上漲。歐洲股市漲幅更大，部分原因是暖冬抑制了能源價(jià)格。資金涌入新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，它們正享受著美元貶值的好處，這是對(duì)美國放松貨幣政策的預(yù)期的結(jié)果。

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This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.

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這是一幅樂觀的場景。但不幸的是，正如我們本周所解釋的，這很可能誤導(dǎo)的結(jié)果。世界與通貨膨脹的斗爭遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。這意味著市場可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的回調(diào)。

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For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the OECD.

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要想知道是什么讓投資者燃起了希望，請(qǐng)看2月14日發(fā)布的美國最新的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至1月份的三個(gè)月通脹率低于2021年初以來的任何時(shí)候。許多最初導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹加劇的因素已經(jīng)消失。全球供應(yīng)鏈不再因商品需求的激增而不堪重負(fù)，也不再受疫情的干擾。隨著對(duì)花園家具和游戲機(jī)的需求降溫，商品價(jià)格下跌，微芯片供過于求。如今的油價(jià)比一年前俄烏沖突前還要低。通貨膨脹下降的景象在世界各地重復(fù)出現(xiàn):在經(jīng)合組織的36個(gè)主要富裕國家中，有25個(gè)國家的整體通貨膨脹率在下降。

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Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.

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然而，總體通脹的波動(dòng)往往掩蓋了潛在趨勢(shì)。細(xì)究一下，不難看出通貨膨脹問題并沒有解決。美國的“核心”價(jià)格，不包括波動(dòng)性較大的食品和能源，在過去的三個(gè)月里以每年4.6%的速度增長，并且已經(jīng)開始緩慢加速。目前，通脹的主要來源是服務(wù)業(yè)，該行業(yè)更容易受到勞動(dòng)力成本的影響。在美國、英國、加拿大和新西蘭，工資增長仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于與他們各自中央銀行2%的通脹目標(biāo)；歐元區(qū)的工資增長較低，但工資在西班牙等重要經(jīng)濟(jì)體上升。

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That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the G7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.

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鑒于勞動(dòng)力市場的強(qiáng)勁，這不應(yīng)令人感到意外。由富裕大國組成的七國集團(tuán)(G7)中，有六個(gè)國家的失業(yè)率處于或接近本世紀(jì)以來的最低水平。美國的失業(yè)率是自1969年以來最低的。在勞動(dòng)力市場依然如此緊張的情況下，很難看出潛在通脹會(huì)如何消散。較低的失業(yè)率讓許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通貨膨脹率保持在3-5%左右。這將沒有過去兩年的經(jīng)歷那么可怕。但這對(duì)央行的從業(yè)者來說是個(gè)大問題，因?yàn)樗麄兪歉鶕?jù)自己的目標(biāo)來評(píng)判的。這也將打破投資者的樂觀預(yù)期。

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Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.

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無論接下來發(fā)生什么，市場動(dòng)蕩似乎都有可能發(fā)生。最近幾周，債券投資者開始預(yù)測(cè)央行不會(huì)降息，而是將利率保持在高位?？梢韵胂蟆獌H僅是——在通脹繼續(xù)下降的同時(shí)，利率保持在高位而不會(huì)嚴(yán)重削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將提振市場。然而，持續(xù)走高的利率將給債券投資者帶來損失，而持續(xù)高企的無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)率將使股票以較高市盈率交易變得更加困難。

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It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.

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然而，更有可能的是，高利率會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)。在現(xiàn)代，中央銀行不擅長實(shí)現(xiàn)“經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”,即完成一輪利率上升而沒有發(fā)生隨之而來的衰退。歷史上有很多這樣的例子:投資者錯(cuò)誤地預(yù)測(cè)，在一輪貨幣緊縮結(jié)束時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長，結(jié)果卻是經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷。即使在通貨膨脹率沒有今天這么高的情況下也是如此。如果美國是唯一一個(gè)進(jìn)入衰退的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，世界其他大部分地區(qū)仍將被拖累，尤其是如果投資者的避險(xiǎn)行為令美元走強(qiáng)的話。

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There is also the possibility that central banks, faced with a stubborn inflation problem, do not have the stomach to tolerate a recession. Instead, they might allow inflation to run a little above their targets. In the short run that would bring an economic sugar rush. It might also bring benefits in the longer run: eventually interest rates would settle higher on account of higher inflation, keeping them safely away from zero and giving central banks more monetary ammunition during the next recession. For this reason, many economists think the ideal inflation target is above 2%.

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還有一種可能性是，面對(duì)頑固的通脹問題，各國央行沒有勇氣容忍經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。相反，他們可能會(huì)允許通脹率略高于他們的目標(biāo)。從短期來看，這將帶來一場經(jīng)濟(jì)上的熱潮。從長期來看，這也可能帶來好處:最終，由于通貨膨脹率上升，利率會(huì)穩(wěn)定在更高的水平，使其安全地遠(yuǎn)離零，并在下一次衰退期間給央行更多的貨幣手段。出于這個(gè)原因，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為理想的通脹目標(biāo)是2%以上。

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Yet managing such a regime shift without wreaking havoc would be an enormous task for central banks. They have spent the past year emphasising their commitment to their current targets, often set by lawmakers. Ditching one regime and establishing another would be a once-in-a-generation policymaking challenge. Decisiveness would be key; in the 1970s a lack of clarity about the goals of monetary policy led to wild swings in the economy, hurting the public and investors alike.

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然而，對(duì)于央行來說，在不嚴(yán)重破壞現(xiàn)狀下轉(zhuǎn)變當(dāng)今的體制是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)。過去一年，他們一直在強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)當(dāng)前目標(biāo)的承諾，這些目標(biāo)通常是由立法者設(shè)定的。拋棄一種制度，建立另一種制度，將是千載難逢的決策挑戰(zhàn)。果斷將是破題的關(guān)鍵；上世紀(jì)70年代，貨幣政策目標(biāo)的不明確導(dǎo)致了經(jīng)濟(jì)的劇烈波動(dòng)，傷害了公眾和投資者。

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Back to Earth

回到地面

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So far central bankers in the rich world are showing no signs of reversing course. But even if inflation falls or they give up fighting it, policymakers are unlikely to execute a flawless pivot. Whether it is because rates stay high, recession strikes or policy enters a messy period of transition, investors have set themselves up for disappointment.

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到目前為止，發(fā)達(dá)國家的央行行長們沒有顯示出改變政策的跡象。但即使通脹下降或他們放棄對(duì)抗通脹，政策制定者也不太可能實(shí)施完美的轉(zhuǎn)向。無論是因?yàn)槔示痈卟幌?、?jīng)濟(jì)衰退來襲還是政策進(jìn)入混亂的過渡期，投資者都讓自己失望了。