陽光地帶曾是美國人退休后的好去處，但氣候變化改變了這一切

珍妮·蘭根·布里斯是一名61歲的退休人員。她居住在佛羅里達(dá)的那不勒斯，常在每天早上7點(diǎn)打網(wǎng)球。她說即使在這么早的時(shí)間，球場(chǎng)上也是酷熱難耐。

這里的酷熱與康涅狄格州的韋斯特波特市相去甚遠(yuǎn)，她在那里與丈夫把三個(gè)孩子撫養(yǎng)成人。與她的家鄉(xiāng)紐約州水牛城相比則更是弗如遠(yuǎn)甚，水牛城因其冬季的暴風(fēng)雪和極端低溫而聞名。

布里斯仍然很喜歡在佛羅里達(dá)西南部的生活，她在6年前搬到這里照看自己年邁的父母。但氣候變化帶來了挑戰(zhàn)。據(jù)說由于海平面的上升，那不勒斯是全美最有可能受其影響而造成房屋財(cái)產(chǎn)損失的城市之一。由于極端高溫，布里斯說她“一天能換兩三件衣服。”

2023年的夏天，那不勒斯和美國大部分地區(qū)都經(jīng)受著烤爐一般的高溫。這個(gè)夏天，高達(dá)三位數(shù)的溫度困擾著千萬美國人，而且這種現(xiàn)象將會(huì)成為陽光地帶（美國南部地區(qū)）的常態(tài)。

今年7,8月份是美國有史以來最熱的夏天，在南部和西南部州尤為明顯。一周又一周的酷熱天氣困擾著老年人，他們中許多人選擇搬遷到陽光地帶享受暖冬，卻忽視了由氣候變化帶來的夏季極端高溫。

厭倦了累人又危險(xiǎn)的鏟雪工作，許多退休人員憧憬著像是佛羅里達(dá)，亞利桑那，北卡羅來納，德克薩斯和南卡羅來納等一些退休圣地。但陽光地帶的老年人體驗(yàn)到了意料之外的溫暖天氣。

2023年夏天破紀(jì)錄的熱浪使得這些地點(diǎn)變成了“人間地獄”，一位受無情高溫?cái)[布的居無定所的鳳凰城民眾說到。

在鳳凰城，突破110度的高溫持續(xù)了驚人的31天。不只有亞利桑那：厄爾巴索和德克薩斯持續(xù)了44天的三位數(shù)高溫；邁阿密連續(xù)46天的氣溫超過了100華氏度。當(dāng)然，許多人在家吹空調(diào)，但是也有人希望在退休后可以外出散步和運(yùn)動(dòng)——今年夏季的高溫使這些都成為了泡影。

幫助退休人員計(jì)劃他們晚年的一些機(jī)構(gòu)和專家已經(jīng)開始建議他們舍棄原來的退休計(jì)劃，推薦他們?nèi)ツ切┦苋蜃兣绊戄^小的地區(qū)。

我們并不是僅僅再談退休人員的安置。極端高溫給每個(gè)人都帶來了災(zāi)難，但對(duì)老年人的影響尤為顯著。今年夏天，亞利桑那州馬里科帕先有24人死于高溫相關(guān)事件，其中一半以上的人年齡在65歲以上。中暑對(duì)于老年人來說極其危險(xiǎn)，它會(huì)使健康狀況惡化，引發(fā)包括心肺和腎臟疾病，甚至還會(huì)誘發(fā)精神錯(cuò)亂。糟糕的空氣質(zhì)量使得老年人呼吸困難，尤其是對(duì)那些已經(jīng)有呼吸短促問題的人來說。即使溫度在80華氏度，也會(huì)對(duì)一些有潛在健康問題的老年人造成危險(xiǎn)。

處方藥的服用使得老年人對(duì)于高溫更加敏感?？鼓憠A能藥——一類用于治療胃腸道疾病，慢性阻塞性肺病和其他疾病的藥物——會(huì)弱化老年人的排汗和降溫能力，β受體阻滯劑和利尿劑會(huì)導(dǎo)致脫水。

同時(shí)，長時(shí)間待在空調(diào)房中會(huì)使老年人情緒低落和感到寂寞。開空調(diào)所產(chǎn)生的高額電費(fèi)對(duì)于一個(gè)固定收入的家庭也是一筆不小的開支。即使不開空調(diào)，一些移動(dòng)能力受身體狀況限制的老人也很難前往有冷氣的公共場(chǎng)所——如果他們附近有的話。

長遠(yuǎn)來看，像2023年的夏季熱浪會(huì)不會(huì)使老年人不敢前往南方的退休圣地？或者說，他們是否會(huì)認(rèn)為2023年的夏季高溫只是一次特例，是否依舊會(huì)成群結(jié)隊(duì)地去諸如佛羅里達(dá)和亞利桑那這些地方，是否會(huì)拋開氣候問題，優(yōu)先考慮康樂設(shè)施和低生活成本等因素？這些問題尚無定論，但是我們強(qiáng)烈建議老年人在他們的搬遷計(jì)劃中重點(diǎn)考慮氣候因素。我們的研究表明陽光地帶的極端高溫是人為造成氣候變化的直接結(jié)果，并或?qū)⒊蔀槌B(tài)。

如果老年人持續(xù)遷移到亞利桑那，佛羅里達(dá)和加利福尼亞的沙漠地區(qū)，持續(xù)上升的高溫和老齡化人口所產(chǎn)生的老年人健康需求會(huì)為這些州、城市和縣鎮(zhèn)帶來前所未有的壓力。這包括投資建設(shè)便利的帶有冷氣的公共中心，訓(xùn)練急救人員以幫助在高溫或其他極端天氣影響下不愿出戶的老年人。

另一方面，老年人應(yīng)不應(yīng)該住在更涼爽的地區(qū)，像是新英格蘭，臨近太平洋的西北地區(qū)和上中西部地區(qū)，以躲避陽光地帶的極端高溫？沒有這個(gè)必要。北部地區(qū)的氣溫可能會(huì)更涼爽，但實(shí)際上升溫也更加快。以“人度日”（person-degree days）為指標(biāo)來衡量人們長期暴露在高溫下的時(shí)間，到2050年這一指標(biāo)將在全國范圍內(nèi)增長兩倍。但在一些位于大西洋中部和上中西部的州，比如密歇根和威斯康星，這一指標(biāo)將增長5倍，在新英格蘭將增長6倍。

我們的研究只關(guān)注熱暴露，但氣候變化也會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他的極端天氣，比如干旱，山火，颶風(fēng)，洪水和暴雪等。一些資源像是氣候復(fù)原力和適應(yīng)能力測(cè)繪（CMRA）能夠提供退休目的地的氣候信息。

退休者還應(yīng)當(dāng)調(diào)查目標(biāo)退休地所在州是否有涵蓋到老年人特殊需求的健全的氣候方案。退休者需要了解目的地是否有高溫或其他天氣的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，目標(biāo)社區(qū)附近是否有帶冷氣的公共中心，其城市綠地是否能緩解城市“熱島效應(yīng)”，為抵御高溫是否能申請(qǐng)類似低收入家庭能源補(bǔ)貼項(xiàng)目的補(bǔ)助。

未來，城市規(guī)劃者和決策者必須做好準(zhǔn)備，通過對(duì)氣候變化的知識(shí)、應(yīng)對(duì)能力和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施進(jìn)行投資，來應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化影響和人口老齡化所帶來的雙重挑戰(zhàn)。

氣候系統(tǒng)的慣性意味著溫度上升是不可避免的，同時(shí)也是全國性的。謹(jǐn)慎地調(diào)查和計(jì)劃可以幫助退休者找到他們能夠安享晚年的地方。

Original Article:

The Sunbelt was the retirement destination of choice. That was before climate change

Retiree Jeanne Langan Burris, 61, a resident of Naples, Florida, often starts her daily tennis match at 7 a.m. Even at that early hour, however, she says she sometimes finds herself baking on the court in oppressively hot temperatures.

The torrid heat is a far cry from Westport, Connecticut, where Burris and her husband raised their three children. It’s even further removed from Buffalo, New York — a city renowned for blizzards and brutally cold temperatures — where she grew up.

Burris still loves life in southwest Florida, where she moved a half-dozen years ago to be nearer her aging parents, but climate change has brought challenges. Naples is said to be one of the US cities most likely to suffer the loss of home and property because of rising sea levels. And because of the intense heat, Burris said, “I change two or three times a day,” she said.

The summer of 2023 continues to punish Naples – and huge swaths of the United States – with furnace-like weather. Triple-digit heat afflicted tens of millions of people across the center of the country this summer and may prove to be a permanent feature of life in the Sunbelt.

July and August, which saw the hottest summer on record in the US, were particularly brutal in the southern and southwestern states. And week upon week of blisteringly hot weather is especially worrisome for older adults, many of whom chose to relocate to Sunbelt regions in search of balmy winter weather – never counting on the dangerously elevated summer heat that has come with climate change.

Visions of ditching the wearying (and potentially dangerous) task of shoveling snow from their driveways have long attracted retirees to places like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and South Carolina, which are the most popular retirement magnets. But older adults in the Sunbelt got warmer weather than they bargained for.

The record-breaking heat waves of summer 2023 (not to mention the already established pattern of temperature records tumbling summer after summer in recent years) has made these localities seem like “hell on earth,” in the words of one unhoused resident of Phoenix who found himself at the mercy of the unrelenting heat.

In Phoenix, 110-degree-plus temperatures continued for an astonishing 31 consecutive days. Arizona is not alone: El Paso, Texas, saw 44 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures, and the heat index in Miami topped 100 degrees for 46 straight days. Many people find respite indoors in air conditioning of course, but part of the appeal of retirement is being able to stroll and do sports out-of-doors – something that this summer’s stifling heat has made all but impossible.

Organizations and professionals who help retirees plan their golden years have begun counseling that they toss out the old retirement playbook and consider retiring in places where the effects of global warming have so far been less pronounced.

We’re not just talking about personal comfort. Extreme heat is miserable for everyone, but can be particularly lethal for older adults. More than half of the two dozen people who died of heat-related causes in Maricopa County, Arizona, this summer were 65 or older. Heat stress is especially harmful to older people, worsening common health conditions like heart, lung and kidney disease, and even triggering delirium. Poor air quality makes it hard to breathe, especially for those who already struggle with shortness of breath. Even temperatures as low as 80 degrees can be dangerous for older people with underlying health problems.

Prescription medications make older people even more sensitive to heat: Anticholinergics — a class of drugs prescribed for gastrointestinal conditions, COPD and other ailments — reduce their capacity to sweat and cool down, while beta-blockers and--diuretics can cause dehydration.

Meanwhile, being confined to an air-conditioned apartment for days on end can leave older adults depressed and isolated. High energy bills that go along with the air conditioning that makes life bearable in warmer climates can also be a significant burden for those living on a fixed income. And seniors with limited physical mobility may find it difficult to travel to a public cooling center — if they are lucky enough to have one nearby.

Will heat waves like the summer of 2023 scare away older adults from southern retirement destinations over the long haul? Or will retirees continue to flock to places like Florida and Arizona in the hope that the summer 2023 swelter is a fluke — and prioritize other enticements like recreational amenities and a low cost of living? The jury is still out, but we urge older adults to seriously factor climate issues into their relocation plans. Our research shows that Sunbelt heat extremes — a direct consequence of human-induced climate change — are here to stay.

If older adults continue to migrate to Arizona, Florida and desert regions of California, the dual forces of rising temperatures and aging populations will place unprecedented demands on cities, counties and states to meet older adults’ pressing health needs. That includes investing in conveniently located cooling centers and training first responders to work with adults who may be reluctant to leave their homes during a heat wave or other weather emergency.

One the other hand, should older adults living in cooler locales like New England, the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest stay put to avoid the heat extremes of the Sunbelt? Not necessarily. Northern climates may be cooler, but they are actually heating up faster. Chronic exposure of populations to heat, measured by an indicator called person-degree days, will triple nationwide by 2050 — but will increase by five times in the Mid-Atlantic and upper midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and a factor of six in New England.

Our research focused on heat exposure only, but climate change drives other extreme weather events, such as droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding and intense blizzards. Resources like Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation provides helpful weather-related information on potential retirement destinations.

Retirees also should research whether a potential future home state has a well-developed climate plan that considers older adults’ distinctive needs. Does your ideal destination have heat and/or weather advisory warning systems? Does your dream neighborhood have cooling (or warming) centers close by? Are there urban green spaces like parks that can protect against the urban “heat island” effect? Could you access supports like Low Income Home Energy Assistance Programs for hardening your home against weather extremes?

In the future, city planners and policymakers must prepare to face the twin challenges of climate change impacts and population aging by investing in knowledge, capacity and infrastructure for adaptation.

The climate system’s inertia means that warming is inevitable, with potential effects nationwide. Careful research and planning can help retirees find a home where they can live out their golden years in relative safety and comfort.

?原網(wǎng)址：

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/01/opinions/seniors-retirees-arizona-florida-climate-change-heat-wave-carr-wing-falchetta/index.html