How companies use AI to set prices

公司如何用AI定價(jià)

The pricing of products is turning from art into science

產(chǎn)品的定價(jià)正從技巧轉(zhuǎn)為科學(xué)

?FEW AMERICAN business tactics are as peculiar in a freewheeling capitalist society as the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. P.H. Hanes, founder of the textile mill that would eventually become HanesBrands, came up with it in the 1920s. That allowed him to use adverts in publications across America to deter distributors from gouging buyers of his knitted under garments. Even today many American shopkeepers hew to manufacturers’ recommended prices, as much as they would love to raise them to offset the inflationary pressures on their other costs. A growing number, though, resort to more sophisticated pricing techniques.

在美國這個(gè)自由放任的資本主義社會(huì)，很少有商業(yè)策略像“制造商建議零售價(jià)”那般古怪突兀。這個(gè)定價(jià)機(jī)制是P.H.哈內(nèi)斯（P.H. Hanes）上世紀(jì)20年代提出的，他創(chuàng)建的紡織廠最終發(fā)展成了漢佰百貨（HanesBrands）。他在美國各地的出版物上刊登建議零售價(jià)的廣告，防止經(jīng)銷商對(duì)購買他的針織內(nèi)衣的買家漫天要價(jià)。即使在今天，許多美國店家仍然堅(jiān)守制造商建議的價(jià)格，盡管他們也很想抬價(jià)以抵消通脹帶來的其他成本壓力。不過，越來越多的公司正訴諸于更復(fù)雜的定價(jià)方式。

A seminal study from 2010 by McKinsey, a consultancy, estimated that raising prices by 1% without losing sales can boost operating profits by 8.7%, on average. Getting this right can be tricky. Set prices too high and you risk losing customers; set them too low and you leave money on the table. Retailers have historically used rules of thumb, such as adding a fixed margin on top of costs or matching what competitors charge. As energy, labour and other inputs go through the roof, they can no longer afford to treat pricing as an afterthought.

咨詢公司麥肯錫在2010年開展的一項(xiàng)開創(chuàng)性研究估計(jì)，在不損失銷售額的情況下，每提價(jià)1%平均可以讓營業(yè)利潤提升8.7%。要把握好這個(gè)度會(huì)很難。定價(jià)過高，可能會(huì)失去顧客；定價(jià)太低，就得不到應(yīng)得的最大利益。零售商歷來都采用經(jīng)驗(yàn)法則，比如在成本之上加上固定的利潤額，或者跟上競爭對(duì)手的開價(jià)。隨著能源、勞動(dòng)力和其他投入的價(jià)格飛漲，它們已經(jīng)承擔(dān)不起把定價(jià)放到后頭考慮了。

To gain an edge, shopkeepers have been turning to price-optimisation systems. These predict how customers will respond to different pricing scenarios, and recommend those that maximise sales or profits. At their core are mathematical models that use oodles of transaction data to estimate price elasticities—how much demand increases as the price falls and vice versa—for thousands of products. Price-sensitive items can then be discounted and price-insensitive ones marked up. Merchants can fine-tune the algorithms to prevent undesirable outcomes, such as double-digit price surges or larger packages costing more by unit of weight than smaller ones.

為能駕馭局面，零售商們已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)而使用價(jià)格優(yōu)化系統(tǒng)。這些系統(tǒng)預(yù)測顧客對(duì)不同定價(jià)方案的反應(yīng)，推薦那些讓銷售額或利潤最大化的方案。系統(tǒng)的核心是利用大量交易數(shù)據(jù)來評(píng)估成千上萬種產(chǎn)品價(jià)格彈性的數(shù)學(xué)模型。所謂價(jià)格彈性，就是隨著價(jià)格的升降，需求增加或減少的程度。然后對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的商品可以打折，對(duì)價(jià)格不敏感的商品可以加價(jià)。商家可以微調(diào)算法以避免不合理的后果，比如兩位數(shù)的大漲價(jià)，或者大包裝的重量單價(jià)反而高于小包裝。

These systems are becoming cleverer thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Whereas older models used historical sales data to estimate price elasticities for individual items, the latest crop of AI-powered ones can spot patterns and relationships between multiple items. Makers of pricing software are incorporating new data sources into their models, from customers’ tweets to online product reviews, says Doug Fuehne of Pricefx, one such firm. The cloud-based platform developed by Eversight, another provider, allows retailers to test how slight increases or decreases in the price of, say, Heinz ketchup at different stores affect sales not just of that specific condiment but across the category. It is used by big manufacturers such as Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson, as well as some supermarkets (Raley’s) and clothes-sellers (JCPenney).

隨著人工智能（AI）的進(jìn)步，這些系統(tǒng)正變得愈發(fā)聰明。舊的模型用歷史銷售數(shù)據(jù)估算單個(gè)商品的價(jià)格彈性，而最新一代AI模型可以發(fā)現(xiàn)多個(gè)商品之間的模式和關(guān)系。定價(jià)軟件的開發(fā)者正在把顧客的推文和網(wǎng)上產(chǎn)品評(píng)價(jià)等新的數(shù)據(jù)源整合進(jìn)自己的模型中，道格·福涅（Doug Fuehne）表示。他就職的軟件公司Pricefx就是其一。另一家軟件公司Everight開發(fā)了基于云計(jì)算的平臺(tái)，可以讓零售商測試一種商品價(jià)格的小幅上調(diào)或下調(diào)——比如對(duì)不同商店里的亨氏番茄醬調(diào)價(jià)——會(huì)如何影響該商品的銷量，乃至整個(gè)品類的銷量。使用這一平臺(tái)的有可口可樂、強(qiáng)生等大型制造商，也有一些超市（Raley's）和服裝賣場（JCPenney）。

All this makes pricing systems “much more three-dimensional”, observes Chad Yoes, a former executive at Walmart who oversaw pricing at the retail behemoth. Retail bosses are keen to promote this sophistication to investors, who value firms’ pricing power at a time of high inflation. In February Starbucks, a chain of coffee shops, boasted about its use of analytics and AI to model pricing “on an ongoing basis”. US Foods, a food distributor, has touted its pricing system’s ability to use “over a dozen different inputs” to boost sales and profits.

所有這些都讓定價(jià)系統(tǒng)變得“立體得多了”，曾在零售巨頭沃爾瑪負(fù)責(zé)定價(jià)的前高管查德·尤斯（Chad Yoes）表示。零售業(yè)的老板們熱衷于向投資者宣傳這類復(fù)雜精密的系統(tǒng)，因?yàn)橥顿Y者在高通脹時(shí)期看重公司的定價(jià)能力。今年2月，連鎖咖啡店星巴克聲稱自己利用分析技術(shù)和AI為定價(jià)“實(shí)時(shí)”建模。食品分銷商美國食品（US Foods）自詡其定價(jià)系統(tǒng)能夠運(yùn)用“十幾種不同的輸入數(shù)據(jù)”提升銷售額和利潤。

Price-optimisation may make prices more volatile. “Retailers are pricing faster today than they ever have before,” says Matt Pavich of Revionics, another pricing-software firm. That is especially true in the fast-moving world of e-commerce. But even Walmart reviews the prices of many items in its stores 2-4 times a year, says Mr Yoes, up from once or twice a few years ago.

價(jià)格優(yōu)化可能會(huì)讓價(jià)格更不穩(wěn)定。另一家定價(jià)軟件公司Revonics的馬特·帕維奇（Matt Pavich）說：“現(xiàn)在零售商定價(jià)比以往任何時(shí)候都要快?！痹谒蚕⑷f變的電子商務(wù)世界尤其如此。但尤斯表示，就算是沃爾瑪，每年也會(huì)對(duì)店內(nèi)許多商品的價(jià)格做二到四次評(píng)估，而幾年前只做一兩次。

What pricing systems do not do is lead inexorably to higher prices. Mr Pavich calls this misconception “one of the biggest myths” about products like his. Sysco, a big food distributor which rolled out new pricing software last year, is a case in point. The firm says the system allows it to lower prices on “key value items”—as price-sensitive bestsellers are known in the trade—and raise them on other products. It can thus increase profits by expanding sales while maintaining margins. That keeps investors content and shoppers sweet. ■

定價(jià)系統(tǒng)并不是讓價(jià)格只漲不跌。帕維奇稱這種誤解是對(duì)像他的這類產(chǎn)品“最大的謬見之一”。去年應(yīng)用了新定價(jià)軟件的大型食品分銷商Sysco就是一個(gè)很好的例子。該公司表示，該系統(tǒng)讓它能夠降低“關(guān)鍵價(jià)值商品”（業(yè)內(nèi)對(duì)價(jià)格敏感暢銷品的稱法）的價(jià)格，并提高其他產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格。這樣一來可以擴(kuò)大銷售而不損害利潤空間，從而增加盈利。這既讓投資者滿意，也討好了顧客。