Turning inward

Why the old development strategy of import substitution has gained a new lease of life

As poor-country politicians often point out when pressed by rich-world leaders to liberalise, many of today’s advanced economies practised elements of an ISI?strategy as they industrialised. Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, used tariffs to protect domestic manufactures and reduce its dependence on Britain. In the 19th century European rivals worried that abundant British manufactures would stunt?industrial development and leave them at a permanent military disadvantage. Governmentserected?tariff barriers and mobilised domestic capital, often?squeezed out of the agricultural sector, towards state-supported industry. Russia and Japan followed western Europe in promoting domestic industry as a matter of national security.

Stunt /st?nt/ n. 噱頭，手腕；絕技vt. 阻礙…的正常生長或發(fā)展vi. 表演特技；作驚人表演

Erect /??rekt/?adj. 豎立的，筆直的；因性刺激而勃起的；（毛發(fā)）豎起的v. （使）豎立；建造；創(chuàng)立；安裝；勃起

Still, past experience also shows why the renewed interest in ISI?may be misguided. Its intellectual?heyday was in the 1950S, when economists like Raül Prebisch and Gunnar Myrdal (the latter a Nobel prizewinner) argued against a laissez-faire approach?to trade in developing economies. Their views were informed by the constraints of their era. Poor countries were desperately short of hard currency with which to obtain imports after the second world war. The replacement of some imports with domestic production was seen as a way to ration foreign exchange.More generally, advocates for ISI?rejected the idea that specialisation and trade would leave every economy better off. Poor countries that stuck to their comparative advantage would remain exporters of primary products for ever, it was thought, never making the leap to industrialisation and the higher incomes it would bring.

Heydayy ??n. /?he?de?/ ?最為強(qiáng)大（或成功、繁榮）的時期?? In its heyday , the company ran trains every fifteen minutes. 公司在最興隆時期每隔十五分鐘就開出一列火車。

laissez-faire：自由放任，一種經(jīng)濟(jì)模式，反對政府干預(yù)商業(yè)，強(qiáng)調(diào)遵循商業(yè)自有的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律

The flaws of ISI?rather quickly became apparent, though. Many governments used it to bestow?favours upon domestic industries based on political self-interest rather than rational economic calculation. The enthusiasts among economists lost interest. Tariff barriers left some countries nearly closed off to trade. Meanwhile, import-substituting economies in Latin America and South Asia fell behind?a handful of?others that?opted?instead to promote exports made with abundant cheap labour. Export-orientation was not a sure route to development; success stories like South Korea and Taiwan were rare before the emerging-market acceleration of the 1990s. Nor was it a laissez-faire endeavour; the governments of the Asian Tigers meddled?extensively in their economies, subsidising favoured industries and firms. But global competition placed?relentless pressure on exporters, forcing them to become more efficient and encouraging the acquisition of technical know-how. Those in ISI?economies, sheltered behind high tariffs, tended instead to be small, inefficient and?complacent.

Bestow??v. /b??st??/ ~ sth (on/upon sb) （將…）給予，授予，獻(xiàn)給?? It was a title bestowed upon him by the king. 那是國王賜給他的頭銜。

a handful of?一把；少量的；一小部分

Opt??v. /?pt/ ?~ (for/against sth) 選擇；挑選?? After graduating she opted for a career in music. 畢業(yè)后她選擇了從事音樂工作。

1.?OPT ?IN (TO STH)?決定加入；選擇參與

2.?OPT ?OUT (OF STH)?(1) 決定退出；選擇不參與??Employees may opt out of the company's pension plan. 雇員可選擇不參加該公司的養(yǎng)老金計劃。(2) (英國的學(xué)校或醫(yī)院) 選擇不受地方當(dāng)局管理

meddle ?v. /?medl/ ?1.~ (in/with sth)管閑事；干涉；干預(yù)??He had no right to meddle in her affairs. 他無權(quán)干涉她的事情。2.~ (with sth) ?瞎搞，亂弄（尤指不應(yīng)管或不懂的事物）?Somebody had been meddling with her computer. 有人擅自擺弄過她的電腦。

?relentless ?adj. /r??lentl?s/ ?1.不停的；持續(xù)強(qiáng)烈的；不減弱的??her relentless pursuit of perfection 她對完美的不懈追求??The sun was relentless. 太陽還是那么熱。 2.不放棄的；嚴(yán)格的；苛刻的；無情的??a relentless enemy 殘酷的敵人

complacent ?adj. /k?m?ple?snt/ ~ (about sb/sth) 自滿的；自鳴得意的；表現(xiàn)出自滿的? a dangerously complacent attitude to the increase in unemployment 對失業(yè)增加抱滿不在乎的危險態(tài)度

A matter of great imports

What does all this mean for the revival in ISI?today? In economies with large domestic markets and capable states, import substitution may well allow governments to achieve strategic goals without nudging?firms into growth-sapping?complacency. China probably fits the bill. In India, with its poorer and less integrated domestic market, the strategy is riskier.

Nudge /n?d?/ ?v. （用肘）輕推；輕撞；推開；往前擠；勸說；接近n. 推動；（用肘）輕推；觸發(fā)；激起；說服

nudge ?nudge, ?wink ?wink / a ?nudge and a ?wink 眉來眼去

?They've been spending a lot of time together, nudge nudge, wink wink. 他們長期廝混在一起，卿卿我我的

sap /s?p/?

名詞1.（植物體內(nèi)運(yùn)送養(yǎng)分的）液，汁??Maple syrup is made from sap extracted from the sugar maple tree. 槭糖漿是用糖槭樹中提取的樹液制成的。2.笨蛋；易上當(dāng)?shù)娜?/span>

動詞?~ sth~ sb (of sth) 使虛弱；削弱；逐漸破壞??The hot sun sapped our energy. 火辣辣的太陽烤得我們虛軟無力。 ?Years of failure have sapped him of his confidence. 連年失敗使他逐漸喪失了自信

In smaller economies with weak institutions, however, ISI-related policies are doomed to fail.The consumers, competition and technologies that developing economies can only find on global markets are a crucial prerequisite?for their industrialisation. If the world’s biggest economies focus on their own strategic interests alone, they will deprive others of access to these precious resources and the golden age of emerging-market growth will become an ever more faded memory.

prerequisite ?n. /?pri??rekw?z?t/ ~ (for/of/to sth)先決條件；前提；必備條件

譯文

As poor-country politicians often point out when pressed by rich-world leaders to liberalise, many of today’s advanced economies practised elements of an ISI?strategy as they industrialised. Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, used tariffs to protect domestic manufactures and reduce its dependence on Britain. In the 19th century European rivals worried that abundant British manufactures would stunt?industrial development and leave them at a permanent military disadvantage. Governments erected?tariff barriers and mobilised domestic capital, often?squeezed out of the agricultural sector, towards state-supported industry. Russia and Japan followed western Europe in promoting domestic industry as a matter of national security.

正如貧窮國家的政治家們經(jīng)常指出的那樣，當(dāng)富裕國家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人敦促窮國實行自由化時，許多當(dāng)今的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體在工業(yè)化過程中實踐了“替代出口工業(yè)化”。Alexander Hamilton，美國第一位財政部長采用關(guān)稅政策保護(hù)國內(nèi)制造商及用來減少對英國的依賴。在19世紀(jì)，歐洲的競爭對手擔(dān)心英國完善的制造業(yè)會阻礙他們的工業(yè)發(fā)展，使他們在軍事上永遠(yuǎn)處于劣勢。政府豎起貿(mào)易壁壘，動用國家資本轉(zhuǎn)向國家主導(dǎo)的工業(yè)化，其資本常常以壓榨農(nóng)業(yè)的方式獲得。俄羅斯和日本追隨西歐的步伐，從國家安全的角度推動國內(nèi)工業(yè)化。

Still, past experience also shows why the renewed interest in ISI?may be misguided. Its intellectual?heyday was in the 1950S, when economists like Raül Prebisch and Gunnar Myrdal (the latter a Nobel prizewinner) argued against a laissez-faire approach?to trade in developing economies. Their views were informed by the constraints of their era. Poor countries were desperately short of hard currency with which to obtain imports after the second world war. The replacement of some imports with domestic production was seen as a way to ration foreign exchange.More generally, advocates for ISI?rejected the idea that specialisation and trade would leave every economy better off. Poor countries that stuck to their comparative advantage would remain exporters of primary products for ever, it was thought, never making the leap to industrialisation and the higher incomes it would bring.

當(dāng)然過去經(jīng)驗顯示重燃的“替代進(jìn)口工業(yè)化”戰(zhàn)略有可能是歧途。它在學(xué)術(shù)上的巔峰時期是在20世紀(jì)50年代，當(dāng)時Raül Prebisch與諾貝爾獲獎?wù)逩unnar Myrdal還在反對與發(fā)展中國家貿(mào)易采取自由放任的方式。他們的觀點(diǎn)受自身所在的時代約束。二戰(zhàn)后窮國極度缺乏硬通貨用以進(jìn)口商品。用國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品替代一些進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品被視為一種限制外匯的方式。更通俗的說，“替代進(jìn)口工業(yè)化”的提倡者拒絕了專業(yè)化和貿(mào)易會讓每個經(jīng)濟(jì)體變得更好的觀點(diǎn)。人們認(rèn)為，堅持自己比較優(yōu)勢的貧窮國家將永遠(yuǎn)保持初級產(chǎn)品出口國的地位，永遠(yuǎn)無法實現(xiàn)工業(yè)化的飛躍和工業(yè)化帶來的更高收入。

The flaws of ISI?rather quickly became apparent, though. Many governments used it to bestow?favours upon domestic industries based on political self-interest rather than rational economic calculation. The enthusiasts among economists lost interest. Tariff barriers left some countries nearly closed off to trade. Meanwhile, import-substituting economies in Latin America and South Asia fell behind?a handful of?others that?opted?instead to promote exports made with abundant cheap labour. Export-orientation was not a sure route to development; success stories like South Korea and Taiwan were rare before the emerging-market acceleration of the 1990s. Nor was it a laissez-faire endeavour; the governments of the Asian Tigers meddled?extensively in their economies, subsidising favoured industries and firms. But global competition placed?relentless pressure on exporters, forcing them to become more efficient and encouraging the acquisition of technical know-how. Those in ISI?economies, sheltered behind high tariffs, tended instead to be small, inefficient and?complacent.

然而，“替代進(jìn)口工業(yè)化”的缺陷很快就顯現(xiàn)出來了。許多政府基于自身政治利益，而非理性的經(jīng)濟(jì)考量，利用它來給國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)提供好處。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家中的狂熱愛好者也失去了興趣。關(guān)稅壁壘幾乎讓一些國家近似貿(mào)易鎖國。與此同時，拉美與南亞采取替代進(jìn)口的經(jīng)濟(jì)體落后于少數(shù)幾個采取利用豐富廉價勞動力促進(jìn)出口的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。出口主導(dǎo)型不一定是發(fā)展的正確道路。在90年代新興市場加速發(fā)展之前，韓國和臺灣地區(qū)的成功非常罕見。這也不是自由放任政策下的結(jié)果，亞洲四小龍的政府對他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行了廣泛的干預(yù)，補(bǔ)貼偏好的行業(yè)和企業(yè)。但全球化的競爭為出口商帶來了無窮無盡的壓力，迫使他們變得更有效率，刺激他們獲取技術(shù)工藝知識。在采取“替代進(jìn)口策略”的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，被高關(guān)稅保護(hù)，將會變得弱小、缺乏效率以及自滿。

A matter of great imports

What does all this mean for the revival in ISI?today? In economies with large domestic markets and capable states, import substitution may well allow governments to achieve strategic goals without nudging?firms into growth-sapping?complacency. China probably fits the bill. In India, with its poorer and less integrated domestic market, the strategy is riskier.

這對現(xiàn)在復(fù)興的ISI策略意味著什么？在擁有巨大國內(nèi)市場和強(qiáng)政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，替代進(jìn)口非常有可能讓政府達(dá)成戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)，而不需要推動企業(yè)陷入“削弱增長式的自滿”。中國應(yīng)該滿足要求。而印度，由于相對較差而且不完整的國內(nèi)市場，這個策略會具有更大風(fēng)險。

In smaller economies with weak institutions, however, ISI-related policies are doomed to fail.The consumers, competition and technologies that developing economies can only find on global markets are a crucial prerequisite?for their industrialisation. If the world’s biggest economies focus on their own strategic interests alone, they will deprive others of access to these precious resources and the golden age of emerging-market growth will become an ever more faded memory.

管理相對較差的小經(jīng)濟(jì)體，替代進(jìn)口相關(guān)的政策注定失敗。發(fā)展中國家工業(yè)化的關(guān)鍵前提條件：消費(fèi)者、競爭以及技術(shù)只能在全球化的市場中找到。如果全球最大的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體只關(guān)注自身戰(zhàn)略利益，他們也會剝奪他人獲取這些資源的機(jī)會。新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長的黃金年代將會變成一段越來越褪色的記憶。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人11月刊

UP說：文章中的觀點(diǎn)能代表西方國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家或者精英人士或者其他人看待事物的觀點(diǎn)，具有參考作用，不能有他說的就一定是正確的的想法，看的時候大家要辯證的思考。