Reference：https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/03/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

The credit crunch is getting worse and bankruptcies are on the rise

Analysis by Nicole Goodkind, CNN

Published 7:30 AM EDT, Mon July 3, 2023

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The strength and resiliency（彈性） of the US economy during the first half of the year defied the expectations of economists who largely expected the country to fall into recession.

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Still, many expect the second half of the year to bring some volatility（反復(fù)無常）as Federal Reserve policymakers indicate they plan to continue making painful interest rate hikes（繼續(xù)加息）.

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While inflation rates are slowly falling, price pressures persist, and the Fed has hinted that its benchmark interest rates（基準(zhǔn)利率） will stay higher for longer.

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Banks also look set to continue tightening lending standards in the second half of the year. That will make it more difficult and costly for small and midsize businesses (and US households) to secure funding.

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Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise and so are consumer debt delinquencies（delinquency 過失）.

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David Tesher（ a senior analyst with S&P Global）: Before we were forecasting a short and shallow recession, but we no longer think there’s going to be a recession. Now, it’s a situation where growth prospects are slower, but we’re not predicting imminent recession.

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The US consumer has been resilient, but obviously, persistent inflation is definitely eroding（erode 侵蝕；損害）?their purchasing power（購買力）. Less wealthy consumers are definitely feeling a lot more pressure, they’re using more credit card debt. Households are bleeding through the cash pile that they had accumulated during the pandemic. Hard decisions are being made, and that’s going to feed back into corporate growth prospects.

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Chiza Vitta: There isn’t a broad downturn across the market, but there’s a lot of risk for less established companies. So yes, some corporations are distressed（煩惱的）, but this isn’t something affecting the entire market, which is what you’d associate with a broad credit crunch（財政困難）.

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Vitta: When it comes to ratings, the size of the company is a major factor. Sectors like tech and energy, where there’s a lot of profitability（收益性）, are in good shape. It’s going to take a prolonged（持續(xù)很久的）?period of distress for them to get to a point where they are downgraded, let alone face a default. We’re not expecting something like that. Generally speaking, it’s deeply speculative（投機的）?companies where you’re seeing interest rates as much as double. We would say that public companies may be experiencing slower growth but not a high level of distress.

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Big Tech is back with a vengeance

Last year was rough for tech companies: Tech stocks fell more than 30% in 2022, while the overall market dropped 20%.

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Ives forecasts that the tech sector will be up another 12%-15% in the second half of this year.

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But not all analysts agree.

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Markets sentiment（市場情緒）?appears to be excessively inflated, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. That means stocks will likely become choppy（波動起伏）?in the near term, she added.

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“What we have seen this year is the dangerous pattern when investors let the fear of missing out (aka FOMO) override disciplined due diligence,”

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Fourth of July road trip, anyone?

And yet gasoline prices are much lower. The national average for regular gasoline dipped to $3.55 a gallon on Thursday, according to AAA. A year ago, a gallon of regular sold for an average of $4.87 a gallon.

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That kind of price drop is almost unprecedented.