Noise pollution—Humans are imperfect, inconsistent decision-makers

In their new book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein offer strategies for improvement

NOISE IS UNWANTED variation in judgments that should be identical, which leads to inaccurate and unfair decisions. It is all around people all the time, though individuals fail to notice it. To get a sense of how it happens, perform a “noise audit” right now: open your phone’s stopwatch app and practice counting ten seconds. Now, with your eyes closed, count several times, hitting the lap button each time you believe ten seconds have elapsed.

inconsistent? 英 /??nk?n?s?st?nt/? adj. 不一致的；前后矛盾的

elapse ?v. /??l?ps/ (通常不用于進(jìn)行時(shí)) [ V ]（時(shí)間）消逝，流逝?? Many years elapsed before they met again. 過了許多年他們才再次相見。

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark. And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias too, which is a?different form of error (you counted too guickly or slowly).?

The problem of?bias?in decisions is well known and there are strategies that people can adopt to minimise it. For example,?customers may be?"anchored" on the first price they are presented with in a transaction,?so they learn to consciously discard?it before they negotiate.?But noise is different precisely because it is?less?apparent.?"It becomes visible only when we think statistically about an ensemble of similar?judgments. Indeed,?it then becomes hard to miss,"??Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein write in their new book.

anchor /???k?(r)/ 名詞，1.錨?to drop anchor 拋錨；2.給以安全感的人（或物）；精神支柱；頂梁柱 ?the anchor of the family 全家的頂梁柱。動(dòng)詞1.拋錨；下錨 ?We anchored off the coast of Spain. 我們?cè)谖靼嘌姥睾佸^停泊。2. 使固定；扣牢；系牢 ?Make sure the table is securely anchored. 務(wù)必要把桌子固定好。 3.~ sb/sth (in/to sth) 使扎根；使基于 ?Her novels are anchored in everyday experience. 她的小說取材自日常生活經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 4. ( NAmE ) ?主持（電視、廣播節(jié)目） ?She anchored the evening news for seven years. 她主持了七年晚間新聞報(bào)道。

discard /d?s?kɑ?d/ 動(dòng)詞，~ sb/sth (as sth) 丟棄；拋棄 ?The room was littered with discarded newspapers. 房間里到處是亂扔的報(bào)紙。 名詞，被拋棄的人（或物）；（尤指紙牌游戲中）墊出的牌

ensemble ?n. /?n?s?mbl/ 1.樂團(tuán)，劇團(tuán)，舞劇團(tuán)（全體成員）??a brass/wind/string, etc. ensemble 銅管樂器、管樂器、弦樂器等合奏組；2.全體；整體；3.全套服裝

The divergences?are?stark.?In?a?courthouse in Miami,?one?judge would grant refugees asylum in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of?the time.?A?large study of radiologists?found that the false-positive rate ranged from?1% to 64% meaning that two-thirds of the time,?a radiologist said?a?mammogram?showed cancer when it was not cancerous. Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the?end of a?long day.?Judges made harsher?decisions leading?up to their?breaks and on hotter?days.?An insurance firm's?underwriters assessed premiums that varied by?55%,?a difference that was five times greater?than its management had imagined.

Divergence?/da??v??d??ns/ n. 差異；分歧；分散，發(fā)散；（氣流或海洋的）分開處

radiologist ?n. /?re?di??l?d??st/放射科醫(yī)生；X光科的醫(yī)生

cancerous /?k?ns?r?s/ADJ 癌的?? The production of these cancerous cells suppresses the production of normal white blood cells. 這些癌細(xì)胞的產(chǎn)生抑制了正常白血球的生成。

mammogram ?n. /?m?m?ɡr?m/乳房X光檢查

opioid /???p????d/ 1. 類鴉片活性肽；2.類鴉片活性肽的; 與類鴉片活性肽有關(guān)的

譯文

In their new book, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein offer strategies for improvement。

在Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony和Cass Sunstein 的新書中提供了應(yīng)對(duì)噪音的策略。

NOISE IS UNWANTED variation in judgments that should be identical, which leads to inaccurate and unfair decisions. It is all around people all the time, though individuals fail to notice it. To get a sense of how it happens, perform a “noise audit” right now: open your phone’s stopwatch app and practice counting ten seconds. Now, with your eyes closed, count several times, hitting the lap button each time you believe ten seconds have elapsed.

噪音是判斷中不受歡迎的變量，會(huì)導(dǎo)致判斷不精準(zhǔn)、不公正，應(yīng)當(dāng)使該變量保持不變。它一直都在人們身邊,?盡管個(gè)人沒有注意到它。為了了解它是如何發(fā)生的,?現(xiàn)在執(zhí)行一個(gè)“噪音審計(jì)”：打開你的手機(jī)時(shí)間應(yīng)用程序,?練習(xí)數(shù)10秒?，F(xiàn)在，閉著眼睛?，自我計(jì)時(shí)幾次，每次自己相信已過10秒的時(shí)候，就按下計(jì)時(shí)按鈕。

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark. And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias too, which is a?different form of error (you counted too guickly or slowly).

你的回答并不完美而且有偏差：略高于或低于10秒。如果你總是在一個(gè)方向上錯(cuò)的，那么也存在偏差，這是另一種形式的錯(cuò)誤(你計(jì)數(shù)太快或太慢)。

The problem of?bias?in decisions is well known and there are strategies that people can adopt to minimise it.?For example,?customers may be?"anchored" on the first price they are presented with in a transaction,?so they learn to consciously discard?it before they negotiate.?But noise is different precisely because it is?less?apparent.?"It becomes visible only when we think statistically about an ensemble of similar?judgments. Indeed,?it then becomes hard to miss,"??Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein write in their new book.

決策偏差問題廣為人知，并且有相關(guān)策略可以使用以減輕偏差。例如，交易中，客戶可能會(huì)“錨定”他們遇到的第一個(gè)價(jià)格，所以他們學(xué)會(huì)在談判前有意識(shí)地放棄這個(gè)價(jià)格。但噪音的區(qū)別恰恰在于它不太明顯。作者Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony 和?Cass Sunstein教授在書中寫到：只有在大家從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的角度考慮一系列類似的判斷時(shí)，它才變得可見。而且，（統(tǒng)一角度進(jìn)行描述）噪音就變得很難被忽略。

The divergences?are?stark.?In?a?courthouse in Miami,?one?judge would grant refugees asylum in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of?the time.?A?large study of radiologists?found that the false-positive rate ranged from?1% to 64% meaning that two-thirds of the time,?a radiologist said?a?mammogram?showed cancer when it was not cancerous. Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the?end of a?long day.?Judges made harsher?decisions leading?up to their?breaks and on hotter?days.?An insurance firm's?underwriters assessed premiums that varied by?55%,?a difference that was five times greater?than its management had imagined.

分歧是明顯的。在邁阿密的一所法院，同時(shí)段一名法官對(duì)88%的案件難民授予庇護(hù),而另一名法官則是5%。一項(xiàng)對(duì)放射科醫(yī)生的大型研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，假陽性率在1%到64%之間，這意味著放射科醫(yī)生說乳房X光片顯示癌癥時(shí)，有三分之二的概率不是。在漫長(zhǎng)的一天結(jié)束后，醫(yī)生更有可能開出鴉片類藥物。在休息前和炎熱的天氣里，裁判會(huì)做出更嚴(yán)厲的決定。一家保險(xiǎn)公司的承保人評(píng)估的保費(fèi)差異范圍為55%，這一差異比其管理層想象的要大5倍。