中文目錄
1.黑手黨的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響：公司層面的證據(jù)
2.長期氣候變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響：來自小冰河時期的證據(jù)
3.從模仿到創(chuàng)新：中國的研發(fā)都去哪兒了
4.從人口增長到企業(yè)人口統(tǒng)計(jì)
5.數(shù)據(jù)密集型創(chuàng)新與國家：來自中國人工智能公司的證據(jù)
6.反家暴法與婦女福利：來自中國自然實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

1.The Economic Effects of Mafia: Firm Level Evidence（AER2022）

We analyze the effects of Mafia infiltration in the legal economy. Combining information from investigative records with panel data on firms' governance and balance sheets, we build an indicator of infiltration in firms located in an area with no tradition of Mafia. We show that Mafia targets young and less efficient firms and that infiltration generates a significant rise in firms' revenues, with no proportionate growth in production inputs and a deterioration of the firm's financial situation leading to market exit. These findings are consistent with a story of predatory behavior in which infiltration is used for money laundering or rent extraction.

2.The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age(JPE,forthcoming)

Recent studies consistently find important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. I study the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change over 250 years in the Little Ice Age (1600–1850), during which people and economies had time to adapt. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Temperature impacted the economy through its effect on agricultural productivity and mortality. To adapt to the Little Ice Age, economies increased trade and changed land use. I discuss the relevance of these results for understanding the impact of today’s climate change, especially in developing countries.

3.From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is All That Chinese R&D Going?(ECTA2022)

We construct an endogenous growth model with random interactions where firms are subject to distortions. The TFP distribution evolves endogenously as firms seek to upgrade their technology over time either by innovating or by imitating other firms. We use the model to quantify the effects of misallocation on TFP growth in emerging economies. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007–2012. The estimated model fits the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan and perform counterfactuals to study the effect of alternative policies. R&D misallocation has a large effect on TFP growth.

4.From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share(ECTA2022)

In the U.S., large firms now account for a greater share of economic activity, new firms are being created at slower rates, and workers are receiving a smaller share of GDP. Changes in population growth provide a unified quantitative explanation. A decrease in population growth lowers firm entry rates, shifting the firm-age distribution toward older firms. Firm aging accounts for (i) the concentration of employment in large firms, (ii) and trends in average firm size and exit rates, key determinants of firm entry rates. Feedback effects from firm demographics generate two-thirds of the effect. Prior to the decrease, entry rates rose steadily reflecting the earlier baby boom. The glut of firms due to the baby boom lead to rich transitional dynamics within the feedback effects, accounting for more than half the total change. Baby boom induced changes in the firm-age distribution provide a driving force for the post-WWII rise and fall in the aggregate labor share. Ignoring changes in population growth attributes all the long run decline in entry rates to a decrease in firm exit rates, which in reality have been only one-third as large.

5.Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI Firms in China(RES forthcoming)

Developing AI technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceeds in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contracts in China’s facial recognition AI industry. We quantify the data accessible through contracts by measuring public security agencies’ capacity to collect surveillance video. Using a triple-differences strategy, we find that?data-rich?contracts, compared to?data-scarce?ones, lead recipient firms to develop significantly and substantially more commercial AI software. Our analysis suggests a contribution of government data to the rise of China’s facial recognition AI firms, and that states’ data collection and provision policies could shape AI innovation.

6.The anti-domestic violence law and women's welfare: Evidence from a natural experiment in China(JEBO2022)

China's first national Anti-Domestic Violence Law was enacted in March 2016. It offers legal protection to the victims of domestic violence. This paper estimates the intent-to-treat effect of its implementation on women's welfare. Using a nationally representative dataset, our difference-in-differences estimator shows that the law has significantly increased the life satisfaction of married women. Further exploration shows that the increase in life satisfaction is greater for women with higher salaries, better education, and of younger age than their respective counterparts. The increase in life satisfaction is realized through women's increased self-confidence, health status, and intra-household bargaining power as measured by household expenditures on goods favored by women. We also show that the law's implementation might have a broader effect on women's social status, reflected through their increased probability of being promoted and higher salaries.