Introduction

What is the chance of the human race surviving the 21st century? There are many dangers – climate change for example, or nuclear war, or a pandemic, or planet Earth being hit by a giant asteroid. Sam and Neil discuss our future and whether we need to start panicking but not before they teach you some useful vocabulary.

This week's question

Which island the dodo was from? Was it:

a) The Galapagos

b) Mauritius

c) Fiji

Listen to the programme to find out the answer.

Transcript

Note: This is not a word for word transcript?

Neil

Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Neil.?

Sam

And I’m Sam.

Neil

In this programme, we’ll be?looking at some of the many dangers facing humanity, from climate change and global pandemics to asteroid impacts and nuclear war. We’ll be finding out whether human civilisation can survive these risks and looking at some of the related vocabulary as well.

Sam

Do you really think humans could become extinct and end up as dead as the dodo?

Neil

Ah, so of course you’ve heard of the dodo?

Sam

Yes, dodos were large, metre-high birds which died out in the 1600s after being hunted to extinction by humans.

Neil

That’s right. Dodos couldn’t fly and weren’t very clever. They didn’t hide when sailors with hunting dogs landed on their island. The species was hunted so much that within a century, every single bird had died out. But do you know which island the dodo was from, Sam? That’s my quiz question for today. Was it:

a) The Galapagos

b) Mauritius

c) Fiji

Sam

I’ll guess the Galapagos, Neil, because I know many exotic animals live there. By the way, that’s also cheered me up a bit because as humans we are much smarter than the dodo! We’re far too clever to die out, aren’t we?

Neil

I’m not sure I agree, Sam. Lots of the?existential risks?- the worst possible things that could happen to humanity, such as nuclear war, global pandemics or rogue artificial intelligence, are human-made. These threats could have catastrophic consequences for human survival in the 21st century.?

Sam

That’s true. But existential risks don’t only threaten the survival of the human species. Instead, they could destroy civilisation as we know it, leaving pockets of survivors to struggle on in a post-apocalyptic world.

Neil

And it wouldn’t be the first time that has happened, as the BBC World Service programme?The Inquiry?found out. Simon Beard of the?Centre for the Study of Existential Risk?at Cambridge University explains:

Simon Beard

The historical record?suggests that about once every thousand years an event occurs that?wipes out?about a third of the human population – so in the Middle Ages, this was the Black Death - huge?plague?that covered Eurasia, while there was also dramatic global cooling at that time which many people think was related to volcanic eruptions and about a third of the global population died.

Sam

So, humanity has been facing these risks throughout history, according to?the historical record?– the collection of all written and recorded past events concerning the human race.

Neil

Yes. Wars and?plagues?–infectious, epidemic diseases which spread between countries can quickly?wipe out?– or completely destroy, millions of people.

Sam

And there’s not much we can do to stop disasters like that!

Neil

True, Sam, but what about individuals who actively work to bring about the end of the world - like apocalyptic terrorists, rampage shooters and fundamentalist cults like those who organised the poisonous gas attack on the Tokyo subway.

Sam

Those are people who want to end human life on Earth and bring about?Doomsday?- another word for the final, apocalyptic day of the world’s existence.

Neil

Right. And things got even scarier in modern times with the invention of nuclear weapons. During the Cuban Missile Crisis between America and the USSR for example, risk experts estimated a 41% probability that human life would be completely wiped out! Seth Baum of New York’s?Global Catastrophic Risk Institute?explains how human error almost brought about Doomsday:

Seth Baum

There are some ways that you could get to a nuclear war without really intending to, and probably the biggest example is if you have a false alarm that is mistaken as a nuclear attack, and there have been a number of, maybe even very serious false alarms, over the years, in which one side or the other genuinely believed that they were under nuclear attack, when in fact they were not at all under nuclear attack.

Sam

One such?false alarm?- an incorrect warning given so that people wrongly believe something dangerous is about to happen, came about in 1995, when the US sent missiles up into the Earth’s atmosphere to study the?aurora borealis, the northern lights.

Neil

Soviet radars picked up the missiles, thinking they were nuclear warheads and almost retaliated. Nuclear Armageddon was only averted by the actions of one clear-thinking Russian general who decided not to push the red button

Sam

Phew! A close shave then! Well, Neil, all this doomongering has made me want to just give it all up and live on a desert island!

Neil

Like the dodo eh, Sam? So, which island would that be? If you remember, today’s quiz question asked where the dodo was from.

Sam

I said The Galapagos.

Neil

And I’m afraid to say it was b) Mauritius.?So, to recap, in this programme we’ve been discussing?Doomsday?– the final day of life on Earth and other?existential threats?- dangers threatening the survival of humans on the planet.

Sam

We looked back throughout?the historical record?- all recorded human history, to see examples of threats which have?wiped out, or killed millions of people in the past, including wars and?plagues?which spread epidemic diseases between populations.

Neil

And we’ve seen how modern dangers, like nuclear war and climate change, further reduce the probability of human survival. But Sam, it’s not all doom and gloom! The same scientific intelligence which spilt the atom could also find solutions to our human-made problems in the 21st century, don’t you think?

Sam

So, the end of the world might be a?false alarm?– or unfounded warning – after all!

Neil

Let’s hope we’ll all still be here next time for another edition of 6 Minute English. Bye for now!

Sam

Bye.

From?: BBC 6 MINUTES

Vocabulary

existential risks

dangers that threaten the continuation of human life on Earth

the historical record

the collection of all written and recorded past events concerning the human race

wipes out

completely destroys leaving nothing remaining

plague

infectious, epidemic disease

Doomsday

final day of the world’s existence; apocalypse

false alarm

warning given incorrectly so that people wrongly believe something dangerous is about to happen

雙語版Transcript

Hello. This is6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I'm Neil.

大家好。這里是BBC教學英語的《六分鐘英語》。我是尼爾。

And I'm Sam.

我是薩姆。

In thisprogramme, we'll be asking looking at some of the many dangers facinghumanity,?from climate change and global pandemics to asteroid impacts andnuclear war.

在本期節(jié)目中，我們將探討人類面臨的一些危險，從氣候變化和全球流行病到小行星撞擊與核戰(zhàn)爭。

We'll befinding out whether human civilisation can survive these risks,?andlooking at some of the related vocabulary as well.

我們將看看人類文明是否能承受住這些風險，并了解一些相關(guān)的詞匯。

Do you reallythink humans could become extinct and end up as dead as the dodo?

你真的認為人類會滅絕，像渡渡鳥一樣死透了嗎？

Ah, so ofcourse you've heard of the dodo?

啊，所以你一定聽說過渡渡鳥吧？

Yes, dodos werelarge, metre-high birds which died out in the 1600s after being hunted toextinction by humans.

是的，渡渡鳥是一種1米高的大鳥，在17世紀被人類獵殺至滅絕后消失了。

That's right.

沒錯。

Dodos couldn'tfly and weren't very clever.

渡渡鳥不會飛，也不是很聰明。

They didn'thide when sailors with hunting dogs landed on their island.

當水手們帶著獵犬登上它們所在的島嶼時，它們沒有躲藏起來。

The species washunted so much that within a century, every single bird had died out.

這個物種被獵殺的如此之多，以至于不到一個世紀，它們就都滅絕了。

But do you knowwhich island the dodo was from, Sam?

但是，薩姆，你知道渡渡鳥來自哪個島嗎？

That's my quizquestion for today.

那就是我今天的測試問題。

Was it: a) TheGalapagos, b) Mauritius, or c) Fiji?

是……a)加拉帕哥斯群島，b)毛里求斯，還是c)斐濟？

I'll guess theGalapagos, Neil, because I know many exotic animals live there.

尼爾，我猜是加拉帕哥斯群島，因為我知道那里生活著許多奇珍異獸。

By the way,that's also cheered me up a bit because as humans we are much smarter than thedodo!

順便說一句，那也讓我感到高興，因為作為人類，我們比渡渡鳥聰明多了！

We're far too cleverto die out, aren't we?

我們太聰明了，不會滅絕，不是嗎？

I'm not sure Iagree, Sam.

我不確定自己是否贊同，薩姆。

Lots of theexistential risks - the worst possible things that could happen tohumanity,?such as nuclear war, global pandemics or rogue artificialintelligence, are human-made.

許多生存風險——人類可能遭遇的最糟糕的事情，如核戰(zhàn)爭、全球流行病或人工智能異常，都是人為的。

These threatscould have catastrophic consequences for human survival in the 21st century.

這些威脅可能在21世紀給人類生存帶來災(zāi)難性后果。

That's true.

確實如此。

But existentialrisks don't only threaten the survival of the human species.

但生存風險不僅威脅著人類的生存。

Instead, theycould destroy civilisation as we know it,?leaving pockets of survivors tostruggle on in a post-apocalyptic world.

相反，它們可能會摧毀我們所知的文明，讓一小部分幸存者在末日后的世界里掙扎求生。

And it wouldn'tbe the first time that has happened, as the BBC World Service programme TheInquiry found out.

BBC全球服務(wù)節(jié)目發(fā)現(xiàn)，那種事情并不是第一次發(fā)生。

Simon Beard ofthe Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge Universityexplains:?The historical record suggests that about once every thousandyears an event occurs that wipes out about a third of the humanpopulation?– so in the Middle Ages, this was the Black Death - huge plaguethat covered Eurasia,?while there was also dramatic global cooling at thattime which many people think was related to volcanic eruptions,?and abouta third of the global population died.

劍橋大學生存風險研究中心的西蒙·比爾德進行了解釋：歷史記錄表明，大約每隔幾千年就會發(fā)生一個摧毀約三分之一人口的事件——所以在中世紀時是黑死病——覆蓋亞歐大陸的大瘟疫，而且當時全球也急劇變冷，許多人認為那和火山爆發(fā)有關(guān)，全球約三分之一的人口死亡。

So, humanityhas been facing these risks throughout history, according to the historicalrecord?– the collection of all written and recorded past events concerningthe human race.

因此，根據(jù)歷史記錄，人類在整個歷史上一直面臨著這些風險——歷史記錄是指書面記錄下來的和人類有關(guān)的事件集合。

Yes. Wars andplagues – infectious, epidemic diseases which spread between countries canquickly wipe out?– or completely destroy, millions of people.

是的。戰(zhàn)爭和瘟疫——在國家間傳播的傳染性流行病，可以迅速消滅——或完全摧毀數(shù)百萬人。

And there's notmuch we can do to stop disasters like that!

阻止那樣的災(zāi)難我們無能為力！

True, Sam, butwhat about individuals who actively work to bring about the end of theworld,?like apocalyptic terrorists, rampage shooters and fundamentalistcults,?like those who organised the poisonous gas attack on the Tokyosubway.

沒錯，薩姆，但是那些想要造成世界末日的人呢？比如制造災(zāi)難的恐怖分子，瘋狂的槍擊者和原教旨主義邪教，比如組織用毒氣襲擊東京地鐵的人。

Those arepeople who want to end human life on Earth and bring about Doomsday?-another word for the final, apocalyptic day of the world's existence.

那些人想要結(jié)束地球上人類的生命，導致世界末日——世界的最后一天，世界的末日的另一種說法。

Right. Andthings got even scarier in modern times with the invention of nuclear weapons.

是的。在現(xiàn)代，隨著核武器的發(fā)明，情況變得更可怕。

During theCuban Missile Crisis between America and the USSR for example,?riskexperts estimated a 41% probability that human life would be completely wipedout!

例如，在美蘇之間的古巴導彈危機期間，風險專家估計人類生命被徹底摧毀的可能性為41%。

Seth Baum ofNew York's Global Catastrophic Risk Institute explains how human error almostbrought about Doomsday:

紐約全球災(zāi)難風險研究所的塞思·鮑姆解釋了人為因素是如何幾乎導致世界末日的。

There are someways that you could get to a nuclear war without really intending to,?andprobably the biggest example is if you have a false alarm that is mistaken as anuclear attack,?and there have been a number of, maybe even very seriousfalse alarms over the years,?in which one side or the other genuinelybelieved that they were under nuclear attack,?when in fact they were notat all under nuclear attack.

在沒有真的打算引發(fā)核戰(zhàn)爭的情況下有一些方法可能會引發(fā)核戰(zhàn)爭，可能最典型的例子就是當你得到一個誤認為是核襲擊的假警報時，而且多年來有很多甚至是非常嚴重的假警報，一方或另一方真的覺得自己要遭到核襲擊，而事實上他們并沒有遭到核襲擊。

One such falsealarm - an incorrect warning given so that people wrongly believe somethingdangerous is about to happen, came about in 1995,?when the US sentmissiles up into the Earth's atmosphere to study the aurora borealis, thenorthern lights.

這樣的一個假警報——給出的錯誤警告，讓人們錯誤地相信危險的事情即將發(fā)生——發(fā)生在1995年，當時美國將導彈發(fā)射到地球大氣層中來研究北極光。

Soviet radarspicked up the missiles,?thinking they were nuclear warheads and almostretaliated.

蘇聯(lián)雷達發(fā)現(xiàn)了這些導彈，認為它們是核導彈彈頭，差一點進行反擊。

NuclearArmageddon was only averted by the actions of one clear-thinking Russiangeneral who decided not to push the red button.

一名思路清晰的俄羅斯將軍決定不按下紅色按鈕進行反擊，他的行為避免了核對峙。

Phew! A closeshave then!

??！真驚險??！

Well, Neil, allthis doomongering has made me want to just give it all up and live on a desertisland!

好吧，尼爾，所有這種末日言論讓我想放棄一切，去荒島上生活！

Like the dodoeh, Sam?

像渡渡鳥一樣，是嗎，薩姆？

So, whichisland would that be?

那么，應(yīng)該是哪個島呢？

If youremember, today's quiz question asked where the dodo was from.

如果你還記得，今天的測試問題是渡渡鳥來自哪里。

I said TheGalapagos.

我說是加拉帕哥斯群島。

And I'm afraidto say it was b) Mauritius.

恐怕答案是b)毛里求斯。

So, to recap,in this programme we've been discussing Doomsday – the final day of life onEarth,?and other existential threats - dangers threatening the survival ofhumans on the planet.

總而言之，在這個節(jié)目中，我們一直在討論世界末日——地球上生命的最后一天，以及其它生存威脅——威脅到地球上人類生存的危險。

We looked backthroughout the historical record - all recorded human history,?to seeexamples of threats which have wiped out, or killed millions of people in thepast,?including wars and plagues which spread epidemic diseases betweenpopulations.

我們回顧了所有歷史記錄——所有記載下來的人類歷史，來看看一些關(guān)于威脅的例子，它們在過去已經(jīng)毀掉或殺死了數(shù)百萬人，這些威脅包括戰(zhàn)爭以及在人口之間傳播流行病的瘟疫。

And we've seenhow modern dangers, like nuclear war and climate change, further reduce theprobability of human survival.

我們已經(jīng)看到了像核戰(zhàn)爭和氣候變化這樣的現(xiàn)代危險是如何進一步降低人類生存可能性的。

But Sam, it'snot all doom and gloom!

但是，薩姆，也并不全是厄運與苦難！

The samescientific intelligence which spilt the atom could also find solutions to ourhuman-made problems in the 21st century,?don't you think?

原子方面的相同科學智慧也可以找到21世紀人為問題的解決方法，你不這樣認為嗎？

So, the end ofthe world might be a false alarm – or unfounded warning – after all!

所以，世界末日可能終究是虛驚一場——或毫無根據(jù)的警告！

Let's hopewe'll all still be here next time for another edition of 6 Minute English.

希望我們下次還會在這里播報另一期《六分鐘英語》。

Bye for now!

再見了。

Byebye.