International Economic Review 2023年第2期

Volume 64,?Issue 2 May 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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PUBLIC DEBT BUBBLES IN HETEROGENEOUS AGENT MODELS WITH TAIL RISK

具有尾部風險的異質代理模型中的公共債務泡沫

Narayana R. Kocherlakota

This article studies the public debt implications of an analytically tractable class of incomplete insurance macroeconomic models in which agents face a near-zero probability of a highly adverse outcome. In generic models of this kind, there exists a public debt bubble, so that the real interest rate is perpetually below the growth rate (set to zero). There is no upper bound on the deficit level or debt level that is sustainable in a bubbly equilibrium. In a public debt bubble, ex ante steady-state welfare is higher if the government chooses policies that give rise to a larger level of debt.

?本文研究了一類分析上易于處理的不完全保險宏觀經濟模型的公共債務含義，其中代理人面臨高度不利結果的概率接近于零。在這類通用模型中，存在公共債務泡沫，因此實際利率永遠低于增長率(設定為零)。在泡沫均衡中，赤字水平或債務水平沒有可持續(xù)的上限。在公共債務泡沫中，如果政府選擇導致更高債務水平的政策，事前穩(wěn)態(tài)福利就會更高。

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A COMPARISON OF LIVING STANDARDS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

美國各地生活水平的比較

Elena Falcettoni,??Vegard M. Nygaard

We use an expected utility model to examine how living standards, or welfare, vary across the United States and how each state's welfare has evolved over time, accounting for cross-state variations in mortality, consumption, education, leisure, and inequality. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in welfare levels. This is robust to allowing for endogenous interstate migration and to computing welfare conditional on education, gender, and race. Although states experienced heterogeneous welfare growth rates between 1999 and 2015 (1.68–3.73% per year), there is no evidence of convergence in welfare levels, including during the subperiods preceding and following the Great?Recession.

我們使用預期實用新型來研究生活水平或福利在美國各地的差異，以及每個州的福利如何隨著時間的推移而演變，考慮到死亡率、消費、教育、休閑和不平等的跨州差異。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)福利水平在各州之間存在相當大的異質性。這對于允許內生的州際移民和計算以教育、性別和種族為條件的福利是強有力的。盡管各州在1999年至2015年間經歷了不同的福利增長率(每年1.68-3.73%)，但沒有證據表明福利水平趨同，包括在大衰退之前和之后的子時期。

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SETTLING LAWSUITS WITH PIRATES

解決與盜版者的訴訟

Xinyu Hua,??Kathryn E. Spier

A firm licenses a product to overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. Consumers may purchase the product, pirate/steal it, or forego it. Higher consumer types enjoy higher gross benefits and are caught stealing at a higher rate. The firm may commit to an out-of-court settlement policy that is “soft” on pirates, so high types purchase the product and low types steal it until caught. Settlement contracts, which include both cash payments and licenses for future product use, facilitate price discrimination. Settlement may either create social value by expanding the market or destroy value by limiting market access and possibly deterring more efficient?entrants.

公司將產品授權給不同世代的消費者。消費者可以購買該產品，盜版/竊取，或放棄它。更高的消費者類型享受更高的總利益，偷竊被抓住的幾率也更高。公司可能會承諾庭外和解政策，對盜版者采取“溫和”的態(tài)度，這樣高階層的人就會購買產品，而低階層的人則會偷走產品，直到被抓到為止。結算合同既包括現(xiàn)金支付，也包括對未來產品使用的許可，這助長了價格歧視。結算可能通過擴大市場來創(chuàng)造社會價值，也可能通過限制市場準入并可能阻止更高效的進入者來破壞價值。

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UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

大衰退時期的不確定性和貨幣政策

Giovanni Pellegrino,??Efrem Castelnuovo,??Giovanni Caggiano

We employ a nonlinear proxy-VAR approach to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework that we employ to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q4. We find such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008–2014 period. Our model also points to the powerful role played by the Federal Reserve's systematic monetary policy in limiting the loss of output during the Great Recession.

我們采用非線性代理- var方法來記錄實際活動在大衰退期間和之后對金融不確定性沖擊的巨大反應。我們用一個估計的DSGE框架來復制這一證據，我們使用該框架來量化由于2008年第四季度出現(xiàn)的巨大不確定性沖擊而造成的產出損失。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種沖擊可以解釋2008-2014年期間約60%的產出損失。我們的模型還指出，在大衰退期間，美聯(lián)儲(fed)的系統(tǒng)性貨幣政策在限制產出損失方面發(fā)揮了強有力的作用。

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THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF MANDATORY REEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS: COMBINING A STRUCTURAL MODEL AND EXPERIMENTAL DATA

強制性再就業(yè)計劃的福利效應:結構模型與實驗數(shù)據的結合

Jonas Maibom

This article estimates a model of job search with utility costs and benefits triggered by mandatory reemployment programs. I use data from an experiment that generates exogenous variation in the threat of program participation and an increase in the job finding rate. I calculate the impact of the experiment on worker welfare, and find that participants would be willing to give up 1.5–1.7 weeks of unemployment benefits to avoid participation. These welfare costs vary across workers and are larger for workers with weaker employment prospects. Overall, welfare costs are substantial and therefore important to take into?account.

本文估計了一個由強制性再就業(yè)計劃引發(fā)的具有效用成本和收益的求職模型。我使用了一個實驗的數(shù)據，這個實驗產生了參與項目的威脅和求職率的增加的外生變化。我計算了實驗對工人福利的影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)參與者愿意放棄1.5-1.7周的失業(yè)救濟金來避免參與。這些福利成本因工人而異，對就業(yè)前景較弱的工人來說更大?？偟膩碚f，福利成本是巨大的，因此必須加以考慮。

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VACCINE HESITANCY, PASSPORTS, AND THE DEMAND FOR VACCINATION

疫苗猶豫、護照和疫苗接種需求

Joshua S. Gans

Vaccine hesitancy is modeled as an endogenous decision within a behavioral epidemiological model with endogenous agent activity. It is shown that policy interventions that directly target costs associated with vaccine adoption may counter vaccine hesitancy whereas those that manipulate the utility of unvaccinated agents will either lead to the same or lower rates of vaccine adoption. This latter effect arises with vaccine passports whose effects are mitigated in equilibrium by reductions in viral/disease prevalence that themselves reduce the demand for vaccination.

疫苗猶豫被建模為具有內源性病原體活性的行為流行病學模型中的內源性決策。研究表明，直接針對與疫苗采用相關的成本的政策干預可能會抵消疫苗猶豫，而那些操縱未接種疫苗代理人效用的政策干預要么會導致相同的疫苗采用率，要么會降低疫苗采用率。疫苗護照產生后一種影響，其影響由于病毒/疾病流行率的降低而得到平衡緩解，而病毒/疾病流行率本身也減少了對疫苗接種的需求。

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THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MULTILATERAL TRADE POLICY WITH EXPORT CHURNING

多邊貿易政策與出口攪動的動態(tài)效應

Carter Mix

This article examines the relationship between export churning and the aggregate response to trade policy. I show that export churning—the share of bilateral exports by new or exiting exporters—varies systematically across export destinations and build a multicountry model with destination-specific investments in exporting capacity that is consistent with churning patterns. The model then predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth than liberalizations with major export destinations, and the data support this prediction. Furthermore, the aggregate effects of trade policy depend critically on the pattern of export churning in the?model.

本文考察了出口攪動與對貿易政策的總體反應之間的關系。我展示了出口流失——新的或現(xiàn)有的出口商在雙邊出口中所占的份額——在不同的出口目的地之間有系統(tǒng)的變化，并建立了一個針對特定目的地的出口能力投資的多國模型，該模型與流失模式相一致。然后，該模型預測，出口目的地較小的貿易自由化比出口目的地較大的貿易自由化提供更高的雙邊出口增長，數(shù)據支持這一預測。此外，貿易政策的總體效應在很大程度上取決于模型中出口攪動的模式。

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MONETARY POLICY AND INEQUALITY: HOW DOES ONE AFFECT THE OTHER?

貨幣政策與不平等:一個如何影響另一個?

Eunseong Ma

This article studies a labor-supply-side channel affecting the relationship between monetary policy and income inequality. To this end, I build a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian economy with indivisible labor in which both macro and micro labor supply elasticities are endogenously generated. First, I find that monetary policy shocks have distributional consequences due to a substantial heterogeneity in labor supply elasticity across households. Second, a more equal economy is associated with more effective monetary policy in terms of output. I document supporting empirical evidence for the key mechanism of the model using microlevel data and state-level data in the United States.

?本文研究了影響貨幣政策與收入不平等關系的勞動供給側通道。為此，我構建了一個具有不可分割勞動力的異質代理新凱恩斯經濟，其中宏觀和微觀勞動力供給彈性都是內生產生的。首先，我發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策沖擊具有分配后果，這是由于家庭間勞動力供給彈性的巨大異質性。其次，就產出而言，更平等的經濟與更有效的貨幣政策相關聯(lián)。我用美國的微觀數(shù)據和州級數(shù)據為模型的關鍵機制提供了支持性的經驗證據。

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THE POWER OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR

美聯(lián)儲主席的權力

Alessandro Riboni,??Francisco Ruge-Murcia

This article examines the influence exerted by the Federal Reserve chair on monetary policy decisions. We construct a voting model where the chair selects the proposal that is initially put to a vote but is subject to an acceptance constraint that incorporates the preferences of the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and the probability of counterproposals. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using real-time data from FOMC meetings. Results for all chairs in our sample show that the chair's proposal is the result of a compromise, reflecting a stable balance of power within the?FOMC.

本文考察了美聯(lián)儲主席對貨幣政策決策的影響。我們構建了一個投票模型，其中主席選擇最初提交投票的提案，但受制于接受約束，該約束包含了聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)成員的中位數(shù)偏好和反提案的概率。該模型是通過使用FOMC會議實時數(shù)據的最大可能性來估計的。我們樣本中所有主席的結果都表明，主席的提議是妥協(xié)的結果，反映了FOMC內部穩(wěn)定的權力平衡。

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DECIDING WHEN TO DECIDE: COLLECTIVE DELIBERATION AND OBSTRUCTION

決定何時決定:集體商議和阻撓

Vincent Anesi,??Mikhail Safronov

We study the impact of deliberation rules on collective learning and decision making in committees. In contrast to much of the existing literature, this article makes a distinction between the final votes over policy proposals and the cloture votes that bring them about. We show how deliberation rules can cause Pareto-inefficient outcomes and failures to bring good proposals to a final vote, and how they affect the distribution of power among committee members in the deliberative process. We further show that deliberation rules are dynamically stable, even when they generate Pareto-inefficient?outcomes.

我們研究了審議規(guī)則對委員會集體學習和決策的影響。與現(xiàn)有的許多文獻相反，本文對政策提案的最終投票和最終投票進行了區(qū)分。我們展示了審議規(guī)則如何導致帕累托效率低下的結果和未能將好的提案帶入最終投票，以及它們如何影響審議過程中委員會成員之間的權力分配。我們進一步證明了審議規(guī)則是動態(tài)穩(wěn)定的，即使它們產生了帕累托無效的結果。

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EXCESSIVE COMPETITION ON HEADLINE PRICES

總體價格的過度競爭

Roman Inderst,??Martin Obradovits

In a variety of purchasing situations, consumers may focus primarily on headline prices, disregarding the full costs associated with acquiring and maintaining a product or service contract. Even when this is the case, the literature has delineated various circumstances where intense competition can protect consumers through the so-called “waterbed effect.” In this article, we however show that when consumers have context-dependent preferences, competition may rather exacerbate their and society's harm by distorting product choice and provision. Then, consumer protection policy must sufficiently constrain hidden fees so that competition, along with high-quality firms' incentives to educate consumers, can restore?efficiency.

在各種購買情況下，消費者可能主要關注標題價格，而忽略了與獲取和維持產品或服務合同相關的全部成本。即使在這種情況下，文獻也描述了激烈競爭可以通過所謂的“水床效應”保護消費者的各種情況。然而，在本文中，我們表明，當消費者具有情境依賴偏好時，競爭可能會扭曲產品選擇和供應，從而加劇他們和社會的傷害。其次，消費者保護政策必須充分限制隱性費用，這樣競爭以及高質量公司教育消費者的動機才能恢復效率。

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NO CREDIT, NO GAIN: TRADE LIBERALIZATION DYNAMICS, PRODUCTION INPUTS, AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

沒有信貸，就沒有收益:貿易自由化動態(tài)、生產投入和金融發(fā)展

David Kohn,??Fernando Leibovici,??Michal Szkup

We study the role of financial development on the aggregate implications of reducing import tariffs on capital and intermediate inputs. We document empirically that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower aggregate response following trade liberalization. To quantify these effects, we set up a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to collateral constraints and estimate it using Colombian plant-level data. We find that low financial development substantially limited the gains from trade liberalization in Colombia in the early 1990s. More broadly, we find that low financial development substantially limits both the aggregate and welfare gains from tariff?reductions.

我們研究了金融發(fā)展對降低資本和中間投入進口關稅的總體影響的作用。我們的經驗證明，金融不發(fā)達的經濟體在貿易自由化后的總體反應較慢。為了量化這些影響，我們建立了一個受抵押品約束的異質公司的一般均衡模型，并使用哥倫比亞工廠水平的數(shù)據進行估計。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在20世紀90年代初，低金融發(fā)展嚴重限制了哥倫比亞貿易自由化的收益。更廣泛地說，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)低金融發(fā)展實質上限制了關稅削減帶來的總收益和福利收益。

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DIRECTED SEARCH WITH PHANTOM VACANCIES

有幽靈空缺的定向搜索

James Albrecht,??Bruno Decreuse,??Susan Vroman

When vacancies are filled, the job ads often remain, creating phantom vacancies. Older listings more likely represent phantoms. We assume job seekers direct their search based on listing age. Forming a match with an age-a?vacancy creates an age-a?phantom with probability β and generates an externality affecting vacancies aged?a?and older. Thus, the externality decreases with the match's listing age. Relative to efficient behavior, job seekers overapply to younger listings. We calibrate using U.S. data. The contribution of phantoms to inefficiency is large, but, given their existence, the planner cannot improve much on the directed search allocation.?

當職位空缺被填滿時，招聘廣告通常會保留下來，造成虛幻的職位空缺。較舊的房源更像是幽靈。我們假設求職者根據應聘年齡進行搜索。與年齡匹配的空缺產生了概率為β的年齡幻象，并產生了影響年齡大于等于a的空缺的外部性。因此，外部性隨著公司上市年齡的增加而降低。相對于高效的行為，求職者過度申請年輕職位。我們使用美國的數(shù)據進行校準。幽靈對低效率的貢獻很大，但是，考慮到它們的存在，計劃者無法對定向搜索分配進行很大的改進。

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