“在無畏契約季前邀請賽的第一把NRG森寒冬港上半場3-9的劣勢情況下，換邊之后出現(xiàn)了出奇翻盤并取得圖一森寒冬港勝利。不論是下到平常競技組排還是上到職業(yè)比賽，我們不禁有個(gè)問題:9-3魔咒真的存在嗎？由官方玩家反饋收集組發(fā)布的文章-9:3魔咒，調(diào)查并總結(jié)了9-3魔咒。”

原文來自2022年12月20日于官方發(fā)布的資料大揭秘

以下是正文與譯文

WHAT IS THE “9-3 CURSE?” 何為9:3魔咒？

Somewhere in the years since VALORANT’s release, the legend of the 9-3 curse was born. Believers in the curse quickly turn to panic mode when they enter halftime with a leading score of 9 round wins to 3. The “curse” being that the team with the 3 round wins has an unusually high chance to come back and either win the whole game, or bring it back to a 12-12 tie, leading to an overtime.?

??畏契約發(fā)布以來，93孕育??。上半場拿到9分時(shí)有些玩家便開始驚慌失措，?對?擁有扳回下 半場的神秘?量，亦或是打進(jìn)加時(shí)賽?

So what does the actual data say??

?實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)反映了什么？

BY THE NUMBERS 數(shù)據(jù)說話

For the purposes of this article, the VALORANT Insights team gathered data from a query that examined over 25 million competitive matches. A nice, juicy sample size.?

出于本?的宗旨，?畏契約玩家反饋收集團(tuán)隊(duì)（以下簡稱我們團(tuán)隊(duì)）收集了2500萬場競技?賽數(shù) 據(jù)，得到了?份清晰??豐富的樣本

So first, let’s look at a simple graph—Real World Comeback Rate, or the rate at which the teams in our sample were able to mount a comeback when behind at the half. For this article, we considered a comeback to be either a 13-round win or a forced overtime by the team that was trailing at the half, regardless of whether that team won or lost in OT.?

?先，先看看圖表-競技實(shí)際翻盤率，樣本中隊(duì)伍能夠在下半場扳回?賽的?例。在本?，我們認(rèn)為 落后的隊(duì)伍在加時(shí)賽不論如何，要么扳回下半場，要么打進(jìn)加時(shí)?

When we look at the average comeback rate of a team in relation to the number of rounds that team is trailing at the half, we start to see a pretty obvious trend.?

我們觀察隊(duì)伍平均翻盤率以及隊(duì)伍輪換差距的回合關(guān)系時(shí)，我們開始注意到?分明顯的趨勢 For example, a team that’s trailing 5-7 at the half still wins or forces overtime 40.28% of the time. And a team that’s down 0-12 only pulls off a reverse sweep to win or force OT 0.05% of the time—approximately a 1 in 2000 chance. Oof.?

?如說，上半場隊(duì)伍拿了5-7有40.28%概率翻盤或者打進(jìn)加時(shí)賽，?上半場零封的隊(duì)伍僅有渺茫的 0.05%概率翻盤或者打進(jìn)加時(shí)賽，估計(jì)2000場?賽僅有1場是這樣，omg！?

This chart shows that in over 25 million games, teams trailing 3-9 at the half only have an 11.18% chance to tie or win by the end of the game. But that's just the tip of the iceberg.?

表格顯示在我們收集的2500多萬的對局中，上半場3-9的隊(duì)伍僅有11.18%概率翻盤或者平局，可這 只是冰???罷了

DIGGING DEEPER?深?探索

An 11.18% chance to lose a 9-3 lead doesn’t seem like quite enough to spark up rumors of a curse.?

以11.18%概率被翻似乎并??夠引起9-3詛咒的謠??

So the Insights team decided to conjure up some mathematical wizardry to create projections for how a team should theoretically perform in a given situation. These projections help us find out how much better or worse teams are performing compared to the mathematical odds against them.?

因此，我們團(tuán)隊(duì)決定引?數(shù)學(xué)知識(shí)，在特定條件下為隊(duì)伍預(yù)期表現(xiàn)提出預(yù)測。這些有助于我們發(fā)現(xiàn) 隊(duì)伍的發(fā)揮相?于數(shù)學(xué)概率是好還是壞。

For the projected rates in this second graph, the team looked at factors like map, attacking/ defending side, and rounds-won at halftime. Then, they looked at the actual win rates observed in those 25 million+ comp matches.?

圖?的預(yù)測?例，是我們團(tuán)隊(duì)考慮了地圖、陣營以及上半場得分這些因素。然后查看了從2500萬多場?賽中得到的實(shí)際勝率的結(jié)果

?Ascent 亞海懸城 意境空島?

Bind 源?重鎮(zhèn) 劫境之地?

Breeze 微?島嶼 熱帶樂園?

Fracture 裂變峽? 天漠之峽

Haven 隱世修所 遺落境地?

Icebox 森寒冬港 極地寒港?

Pearl 深海明珠 深海遺珠

For example, according to the calculations, a team trailing 4-8 at the half on Ascent should have a Z% chance to win the game. But when we looked at the numbers, we found that players were actually winning Z+4.75% of the time. Basically, teams are beating the odds by nearly 5 percentage points. Here’s where things start to get interesting.?

舉個(gè)例?，根據(jù)計(jì)算結(jié)果，在亞海懸城4-8的落伍應(yīng)該有?個(gè)確切的機(jī)會(huì)翻盤。但觀察數(shù)字時(shí)，發(fā)現(xiàn) 玩家其實(shí)有略?機(jī)會(huì)翻盤。?

If you look at the two graphs above, one would expect them to follow a similar downward trend as the overall comeback rates—the more rounds you’re behind, the less likely you are to beat the odds. But what we actually see is a big hump with 8-4 and 9-3 scores. And the differences between 8-4 and 9-3 are surprisingly close.?

如果?起分析倆張圖表，預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)按照?賽翻盤率呈類似地下降趨勢，就是越落后，越難翻盤。但實(shí) 際上我們看到的是8-4和9-3分?jǐn)?shù)的?峰值，?倆者的差別有著出?意料的接近?

As we said, teams trailing 4-8 beat the projected odds 4.75% of the time more often than they should. And teams trailing 3-9 beat those odds 4.41% of the time. This is more than twice the jump in odds than we see at 7-5 or 10-2 and it accounts for that peak in the data with 9-3 and 8-4 scores.?

如上?所?，4-8落后的隊(duì)伍有著?預(yù)期更?的4.75%概率翻盤，?3-9有4.41%的概率翻盤。這? 我們看到的7-5和10-2提升了兩倍多勝率，也說明了9-3和8-4的數(shù)據(jù)峰值?

So what’s going on?

因此這發(fā)?了什么？

CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND YOU (DOLLA DOLLA BILLS, Y’ALL)?

經(jīng)濟(jì)?上(?錢灑滿)

?PISTOL+ECO+BONUS 簡寫P.E.B，即?槍局，ECO局，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)局?

?槍局是指雙?在上下半場第?回合開始利?最初的800信幣進(jìn)??賽的回合?

獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)局是指?槍局勝者在第?回合勝利后，利用第二回合留下來的武器在第三回合與長槍全甲全技能的手槍局?jǐn)》竭M(jìn)行比賽

ECO局是指??隊(duì)伍在本回合經(jīng)濟(jì)不?或者絕?部分隊(duì)友?法為下?回合?槍全技能決定為第三回合?槍全甲全技能省錢?

以上是為方便看懂下文做的介紹

There’s a lot of talk about the economy these days, and VALORANT is no exception. The Insights team had a hunch that econ was playing a big role in 9-3 curse perception since each team gets a big economic reset at the half.?

最近有很多關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)的話題，??畏契約也毫不例外。我們團(tuán)隊(duì)猜測經(jīng)濟(jì)從隊(duì)伍換邊重置開始在9-3 魔咒起關(guān)鍵作??

And since our projected numbers in the previous section cannot factor in either team’s economy, the team wanted to take a closer look at our real world data to see how an economic advantage or disadvantage could change the outcome of a game—especially when a 9-3 score was recorded at the half.?

?我們在上?節(jié)預(yù)測數(shù)字不能在考慮雙?經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，我們團(tuán)隊(duì)想更近?步查看數(shù)據(jù)以發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢 與劣勢是如何改變對戰(zhàn)結(jié)果，尤其是9-3下半場?

Because the first few rounds of each half are often played in a very similar way, the team knew it would be important to capture how the outcomes of these rounds affect the odds. And when we visualize the data, it starts to paint a very clear picture of just how crucial that halftime econ reset actually is.?

因?yàn)樯舷掳雸龅那??回合通常?分相似，隊(duì)伍明?贏下前??回合會(huì)如何影響到后續(xù)回合。 我們整理數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，中場經(jīng)濟(jì)重置開始顯得重要起來

So let’s look at the real world comeback rate for trailing teams based on some different halftime-reset win conditions in relation to their starting score at the half. According to the data, the odds of a comeback increase or decrease dramatically depending on how well a team performs in what we internally refer to as the P.E.B. rounds—the pistol round that starts the half, the following eco round, and/or the bonus income round.?

因此，先來看看基于不同中場經(jīng)濟(jì)重置勝利條件有關(guān)半場起始分的落伍翻盤率。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果，翻盤率劇烈起伏由隊(duì)伍在P.E.B局-上下半場開始第?回合，?槍局后的eco局以及?槍局勝者的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)局 發(fā)揮如何決定它的變化?

From that graph, we can see that in 25M+ competitive games, teams who were trailing 3-9 only won 0.33% of games when they lost all three P.E.B. rounds at the half, effectively making their score 3-12. And on the flip side, 3-9 teams who won the pistol, eco, and bonus rounds win 36.33% of games and bring their score to 6-9 with a very large economic advantage. That’s a more than a 1 in 3 chance to win the game when trailing 3-9 if you win the first three rounds at the halftime switch—raising your odds to win by over 100x when compared to winning no P.E.B. rounds.?

上?的圖表，得出在龐?的競技?賽?，3-9落后的隊(duì)伍在PEB局失敗后僅有0.3%勝率翻盤，實(shí)際 結(jié)果為3-12。相反的，如果他們贏下，就有更?的36.33%概率以龐?的經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢追到6-9。如果贏下下半場的前三回合就有超三分之?的概率扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤，?輸?shù)羟叭睾咸?了超100倍的概率?

Now that’s starting to look much more common than we thought. With these numbers in- mind, we can start to make some even better predictions.?

現(xiàn)在開始這些?起預(yù)期的看起來更家常便飯了。有了這些數(shù)據(jù)，我們能作出更?膽的預(yù)測了

PRIORITIZE THE P.E.B.?

搶占先機(jī)(優(yōu)先考慮P.E.B)

Once again, these numbers look pretty definitive when viewed in a statistics vacuum. But that’s not what statisticians do. It’s important to apply more context, rather than just interpreting the raw data alone. So the Insights team conjured up some more mathematical projections that factor in variables like map, attacking/defending side, and halftime score.

同樣的，以不嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)氖聦?shí)看待時(shí)，這些數(shù)據(jù)看起來太靠譜了?？蛇@并不是數(shù)據(jù)師們?的活。與其單 獨(dú)把起初的數(shù)據(jù)講給他們，結(jié)合上下?更重要。因此我們引?了?些更多的數(shù)學(xué)模型，把地圖、雙?陣容以及半場得分作為考慮因素?

And the comparisons between the projected comeback rates and real world comeback rates confirmed that the halftime reset is no joke. For teams trying to flip the script, prioritizing P.E.B. rounds is serious business.?

以預(yù)期和實(shí)際翻盤率做對?，證實(shí)半場重置是真的。因?yàn)槁湮閭円P，拿下前三回合是重中之重?

For example, we already mentioned that a team that’s trailing 3-9 at the half has an 11.18% chance of winning the game or forcing an OT. But if that same team manages to win all P.E.B. rounds, they end up winning Z+28.91% of their games, where Z is their projected odds to win at halftime. On the flip side, if that team loses all three rounds, their win rate plummets to Z-7%.?

打個(gè)??：我們已經(jīng)提到過3-9的落伍?有11.18%概率翻盤或者打進(jìn)加時(shí)。但如果相同的隊(duì)伍成功 贏下前三回合，那么他們以Z+28.91%的概率結(jié)束并贏下這場?賽，這?的Z是指半場得分的預(yù)期概率。另?邊，如果隊(duì)伍輸?shù)羟叭睾希瑒俾蕰?huì)降到Z-7%?

So sweeping or getting swept in the P.E.B. rounds means the difference between a healthy 1 in 3 chance to mount a comeback, or a dismal 1 in 300 chance to do so.?

因此拿下前三回合還是輸?shù)粢馕吨A下有三分之?的概率扳回局勢，或者說有三百分之?的概率隨緣贏

SOO… 9-3 CURSE—REAL OR MYTH? 是真的嗎

Answer: It’s complicated. 只能說：誰也說不清

If you’re one of those players who thinks a 9-3 lead is an automatic loss, then it’s safe to say, sorry—myth busted. But if your idea of the curse is simply that something feels weird about a 9-3 halftime score, then yes, you might be onto something.?

如果你是上述信服魔咒的玩家，那么能肯定地說-抱歉，魔咒不?。但如果你對魔咒的上半場得分感 到奇怪，那么你可能中招了（換句話說：越感到質(zhì)疑越容易發(fā)?）?

From the numbers, we can confidently state that your overall chances of winning a game when trailing 3-9 are much lower than the chances of the other team (and also much lower than if you were down 4-8 instead). But that does come with some caveats.?

從上?表格來看，我們能?信地說在處于3-9劣勢時(shí)本場勝利機(jī)會(huì)要低于其他?分的（同時(shí)也會(huì)低于 4-8的隊(duì)伍），但是也會(huì)激發(fā)你們的戰(zhàn)??

As we saw in the second graph, the real world trends for 9-3 scores are a liiiittle different from their projections in relation to the others scores on the graph. So something is happening when a 9-3 score occurs at the half. But what??

正如第?表格分析，全球?qū)嶋H9-3?分趨勢相?圖表其他?分有?絲絲不同。因此上半場9-3時(shí)會(huì)有 神秘事件發(fā)?，但會(huì)是什么呢？

Are winning teams getting spooked? Are trailing teams getting motivated? Is it all about the economy? 領(lǐng)先的隊(duì)伍會(huì)被翻嗎？?落后隊(duì)伍會(huì)乘勝追擊嗎？經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)是魔咒的?切嗎？

We gave our primary researcher, Ash “Riot Kona” Garrett, the last word on their findings.?

我們請來了主要研究員，Ash “Riot Kona” Garrett，做本?的收尾

“I personally don’t think there’s anything inherent to a 9-3 score that causes players to lose games. Rather, it’s probably more likely that players are overestimating the safety that a 9-3 lead provides,” Ash said. “According to our projections, a 9-3 lead shouldn’t actually be too uncommon between evenly matched teams. We might have cases of leading teams seeing a skill diff that actually isn’t there and getting a little too comfortable, while trailing teams are taking advantage of both an economic and mental reset—with a little help from the myth of the ‘curse.’”。?

她說：“我個(gè)?不認(rèn)為9-3分?jǐn)?shù)導(dǎo)致玩家輸?shù)?賽的固有因素，相反，玩家會(huì)更有可能?估領(lǐng)先的安全感”。她再次說道“根據(jù)我們的預(yù)測，實(shí)際上9-3在實(shí)?相似地雙?之間應(yīng)該很常?，我們有好? 例top隊(duì)伍發(fā)現(xiàn)雙?勢均?敵，能帶來雙?都盡興的?賽，?落后隊(duì)伍在魔咒的??加持下有著經(jīng)濟(jì)和?理調(diào)節(jié)的優(yōu)勢”。