全球貨幣范式的一次轉(zhuǎn)變即將到來？

作者：Warren Coats 發(fā)表于 2021 年 8 月 9 日

翻譯：魏子龍，審校：翟東升 王雪瑩

譯者按：在2003年從國際貨幣基金組織退休之前，Warren Coats博士曾長期擔(dān)任特別提款權(quán)SDR部門負(fù)責(zé)人。蘇東劇變之后，他曾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了對二十多個國家（包括阿富汗、波斯尼亞、埃及、伊拉克、哈薩克斯坦、肯尼亞、吉爾吉斯斯坦、塞爾維亞、南蘇丹、土耳其和津巴布韋）中央銀行的技術(shù)援助工作，指導(dǎo)這些國家的市場化央行體系的建設(shè)與貨幣制度改革。2003-10年間，他曾擔(dān)任開曼群島金融管理局董事會成員。Warren Coats擁有加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的經(jīng)濟學(xué)學(xué)士學(xué)位和芝加哥大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位，目前受聘為約翰·霍普金斯大學(xué)克里格藝術(shù)與科學(xué)學(xué)院、應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究所、全球健康和企業(yè)研究的研究員。翟東升教授曾與Coats博士合作發(fā)表學(xué)術(shù)論文Why the world need a reserve currency with a hard anchor，對1971年以來的美元為主導(dǎo)的無錨貨幣體系提出學(xué)術(shù)批判。

中文版：

2021年8月15日是著名的“尼克松沖擊”50周年的日子。1971年的這一天，理查德·尼克松總統(tǒng)采取了關(guān)閉“美元-黃金兌換窗口”等一系列政策以擺脫美國的經(jīng)濟困局，這一“沖擊”的強大影響力一直延續(xù)到今日。50年前，尼克松總統(tǒng)宣布美國財政部將不再以每盎司35美元的價格兌換黃金。在接下來的幾年里，世界各國的貨幣定價方式出現(xiàn)了轉(zhuǎn)變。一國貨幣的價格不再錨定黃金的市場價格，而是轉(zhuǎn)而取決于央行的貨幣供給[a1]?與市場的貨幣需求決定的貨幣價值，貨幣之間的兌換價格在外匯市場上浮動。中央銀行采用各種方法確定其貨幣供應(yīng)量，現(xiàn)今大多數(shù)央行以各種方式將控制通貨膨脹率（通常為每年2%）作為貨幣發(fā)行的目標(biāo)。

隨著加密貨幣的興起，下一次貨幣范式的轉(zhuǎn)變是否即將到來成為人們關(guān)注的熱點。美元作為主要的國際儲備貨幣的地位可能會因為加密貨幣的興起被取代嗎？為了探索這個問題，我們需要了解現(xiàn)有的貨幣體系是如何運作的，以及加密貨幣的廣泛使用如何豐富或改變現(xiàn)有體系。

在描述現(xiàn)存和未來可能的貨幣體系時，我們需要區(qū)分“貨幣”與“支付手段”?！柏泿拧笔侨藗冊趦斶€債務(wù)或購買商品與服務(wù)時接受的資產(chǎn)。美元和歐元都是“貨幣”?！爸Ц妒侄巍笔侵溉绾螌⒇泿沤桓督o收款人。您是否親自將美元鈔票和硬幣交給星巴克收銀員，或開出支票（銀行匯票）并將其郵出，或通過 eWire、Zelle、Venmo、PayPal 以及其他電子方式將“貨幣”從您的銀行賬戶轉(zhuǎn)移到亞馬遜商家，或使用其他數(shù)字支付服務(wù)呢？也許，您通過Visa、萬事達(dá)卡、美國運通卡等借款購買商品和服務(wù)，并在每個月末或一段時間內(nèi)償還。抑或，如果您沒有銀行賬戶（數(shù)字貨幣的形式之一），您可以親自將實物貨幣交付給 Hawala經(jīng)手人、速匯金或西聯(lián)匯款辦事處，無論收款人在天涯海角，都可以以電子方式匯至距其最近的辦事處。如果您支付的貨幣與收款人希望收到的貨幣不同，您的貨幣將在外匯市場上進行相應(yīng)的兌換。

對加密貨幣的討論既包括日新月異的支付方式（數(shù)字支付技術(shù)），也包括新的、私人創(chuàng)造的貨幣，例如比特幣、以太坊或瑞波幣。私人貨幣的價值決定方式存在極大差異。我所說的私人貨幣并不包括由私人創(chuàng)造的、可贖回法定貨幣的資產(chǎn)，例如我們的銀行賬戶。舉個例子，當(dāng)我們談到美元時，總是包括銀行賬戶中的美元余額、通過Visa卡支付的美元款項等。這些都是私人創(chuàng)造，但最終可以兌換為美聯(lián)儲發(fā)行貨幣或某個聯(lián)邦儲備銀行存款的資產(chǎn)。它們是可信的、對美國法定貨幣的所有權(quán)。（事實上，）大多數(shù)美元是私人創(chuàng)造的。

所有貨幣的價值都由其供求關(guān)系決定。對貨幣的需求源于使用該貨幣支付債務(wù)的可接受性，以及此類債務(wù)的數(shù)量（通常與我們的收入密切相關(guān)）。在每個國家或地區(qū)，收款人必須接受該國或地區(qū)的法定貨幣（例如，美國的美元）。尤其是，法定貨幣必須可以用于向當(dāng)?shù)卣Ц抖愂铡Ｕ嬲乃饺素泿牛ǜ鶕?jù)最新的統(tǒng)計超過 11,000 種）在這方面面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。很少有個人或企業(yè)會接受比特幣或任何其他此類私人加密貨幣。 因此，實際支付中對此類貨幣的需求非常低。例如，對比特幣的需求幾乎完全是投機性的，更像是一種賭博形式，就如同對彩票的需求一樣。這種私人貨幣在法定貨幣迅速（因）通脹（而貶值）或幣值不穩(wěn)定的國家（例如委內(nèi)瑞拉）更具吸引力。

貨幣在跨境支付中的可接受性是一個特殊的挑戰(zhàn)。一國貨幣不太可能在其他國家/地區(qū)普遍使用。舉例來說，當(dāng)某墨西哥人需要向德國人付款時，付款方通常希望使用墨西哥比索，而收款方則希望獲得歐元。因此，付款方需要在外匯市場上將比索兌換成歐元以完成交易。對于外匯市場的交易商們來說，將全球約200 種貨幣兩兩搭配，維持多元貨幣庫存并進行交易的成本是十分高昂的。事實證明，將付款方持有的貨幣兌換成美元，再將美元兌換成收款方想要的貨幣更符合經(jīng)濟常理，成本更低。由此一來，美元成為了國際貨幣體系的媒介貨幣。

所謂媒介貨幣的經(jīng)濟性可以用語言的使用來譬喻。2021年日本奧運會有206個國家參加。為了與東道國日本交流，參與者可以都學(xué)習(xí)日語。但期望日本東道主學(xué)習(xí)205種外語是不現(xiàn)實的。那如何與來自其他205個國家的參與者交流呢？為此，英語成為他們默認(rèn)的第二語言。與更孤僻的美國人不同，大多數(shù)歐洲人會說多種語言，但英語總是其中之一。作為通用語言的英語在語言使用方面的地位相當(dāng)于作為媒介貨幣的美元（在國際貨幣體系中的地位）。

關(guān)于貨幣價值的另一半故事聚焦貨幣的供應(yīng)上。比特幣的優(yōu)點是具有非常明確的、以程序方式?jīng)Q定的漸進增長率，直到其供應(yīng)量在2040年左右達(dá)到2100萬。如今（2021年8月）的供應(yīng)量為1877萬。請參閱我之前的文章：“加密貨幣——比特幣現(xiàn)象”[1]。其他 11,000 多種加密貨幣都有自己的規(guī)則來確定其供應(yīng)量，有些是清晰的，有些則相當(dāng)神秘。所謂的“穩(wěn)定幣”是與特定的“錨”相關(guān)聯(lián)，并且通?？梢詢稉Q為該“錨”，如美元或其他一些貨幣，這些“錨”的可信度各不相同。

大獲成功的E-gold（1996年至2006年）是數(shù)字貨幣的一個例子，它擁有明確和嚴(yán)格的背書，并能以固定的價格贖回某種商品?！癊-gold”這種貨幣的供應(yīng)取決于該固定價格下的市場需求——我在別處稱之為貨幣局制度。我在關(guān)于建立波斯尼亞和黑塞哥維那中央銀行的書中描述了貨幣局制度的運作方式[2]。

美元在跨境支付中的主導(dǎo)地位遠(yuǎn)不止作為媒介貨幣。許多全球交易的商品，例如石油，都以美元定價，故此類交易以美元結(jié)算。僅以一種貨幣為全球市場上的同質(zhì)商品交易定價，使該市場更有效率（同貨同價）。以美元（或任何其他單一貨幣）進行跨境支付還避免了在外匯市場上換匯的昂貴支出。美元被最廣泛地使用是因為它的價值相對穩(wěn)定，而且它擁有成熟且流動性較高的證券市場，各經(jīng)濟體可在其中持有用于跨境支付的美元外匯儲備。

那么，當(dāng)前加密貨幣的發(fā)展有多大可能催化（全球貨幣體系）由美元轉(zhuǎn)向其他貨幣和支付方式呢？美國政策的數(shù)個因素提高了許多國家對尋找替代方案的興趣。具體來說，在我最近發(fā)表于《中央銀行雜志》，關(guān)于國際貨幣基金組織價值6500億美元特別提款權(quán)分配的文章中，陳述了如下幾點：

（1）繁瑣的支付技術(shù)。

通過 Swift 進行跨境支付的現(xiàn)有安排在技術(shù)上是粗糙且過時的。

（2）美元的武器化。

美國濫用美元在跨境支付中的重要地位，通過（對別的國家）威脅阻斷美元的使用，從而迫使其他國家違背自身意愿配合其政策。

（3）美元價值的風(fēng)險越來越大。

對美元通脹的預(yù)期越來越高，以及美國財政赤字的飆升，都增加了持有和交易美元的風(fēng)險。

多數(shù)中央銀行正在升級其支付系統(tǒng)。但中國人民銀行 (PBoC) 是開發(fā)中央銀行數(shù)字貨幣 (CBDC，即數(shù)字人民幣)的領(lǐng)跑者。然而，數(shù)字人民幣幾乎沒有取代美元的潛力，這主要是因為，其一，美聯(lián)儲也在對其支付技術(shù)進行現(xiàn)代化改造，包括探索自己央行數(shù)字貨幣的設(shè)計，如有必要可在不久的將來與中國的支付技術(shù)相匹敵；其二也是更重要的是，中國的資本管制、尚不成熟的人民幣金融市場以及尚不完善的法治建設(shè)，使人民幣作為美元的替代品并不具有吸引力。然而，后面這些問題對于歐元而言較輕。

使用國際貨幣，而不是尋找另一種國家貨幣來代替美元有如下好處，包括更輕松地進行跨境支付，以及降低政治操縱或貨幣政策管理不善的風(fēng)險。例如，比特幣可以在世界任何地方進行支付，而不受政府的管控。比特幣區(qū)塊鏈支付技術(shù)的嚴(yán)重缺陷，可能會被某種上位替代性技術(shù)克服。但要成為一種嚴(yán)格意義上的貨幣，比特幣在支付中的廣泛接受程度必須在現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)上大幅提升。在支付中更廣泛的接受程度有助于穩(wěn)定比特幣目前飄忽不定的價格。然而這似乎不太可能。以黃金為“錨”的貨幣，例如早期的E-gold，享有眾所周知且歷史悠久的“錨”帶來的優(yōu)勢。然而，近年來黃金的價值一直非常不穩(wěn)定，（因此，以黃金為“錨”的貨幣幣值也很難穩(wěn)定）。鋁價非常穩(wěn)定，并且鋁材的供應(yīng)具有彈性，未來幾周將推出以鋁為“錨”的鋁幣[3]。

但現(xiàn)今，已有由國際發(fā)行并監(jiān)管的貨幣，那就是國際貨幣基金組織的特別提款權(quán)（SDR）。即使不能替代美元，也能作為其補充。國際貨幣基金組織剛剛批準(zhǔn)大幅增加其供應(yīng)量（“The IMF’s 650bn SDR allocation and a future digital SDR” [4] ?）。特別提款權(quán)的價值取決于其估值籃子中（目前為止）五種主要貨幣的市值。這五種貨幣的價值已然相對穩(wěn)定，由這五種貨幣組合成的籃子（投資組合）價值更加堅挺。特別提款權(quán)的供應(yīng)、用途及定價的規(guī)則已經(jīng)確立且相當(dāng)透明，由國際貨幣基金組織的190個成員國管理。 簡而言之，特別提款權(quán)是真正具有國際性的。但是，它只能被國際貨幣基金組織成員國和世界銀行、國際清算銀行等10家國際金融機構(gòu)使用。

雖然特別提款權(quán)在增加中央銀行外匯儲備方面發(fā)揮了有限的作用，但由于私營部門未在國際貿(mào)易和金融產(chǎn)品（如債券）中用其計價，并且特別提款權(quán)尚無可供私人使用的數(shù)字支付方式，因此它未能發(fā)揮作為國際貨幣的關(guān)鍵作用。如果國際貨幣基金組織真的要讓特別提款權(quán)成為重要的國際貨幣，它應(yīng)該重視鼓勵其在私營部門使用。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看，國際貨幣基金組織應(yīng)采用貨幣局制度發(fā)行官方特別提款權(quán)，并將其價值與一小籃子商品的市場價值錨定，而非與主要貨幣掛鉤。

[1]?? https://wcoats.blog/2014/01/25/cryptocurrencies-the-bitcoin-phenomena/

[2]?? https://wcoats.blog/2008/08/13/one-currency-for-bosnia-creating-the-central-bank-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina/

[3] https://luminiumcoin.com/

[4]https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/payments/7857111/the-imfs-650bn-sdr-allocation-and-a-future-digital-sdr

英文原文

A shift in monetary regimes?

Posted on August 9, 2021 by wcoats

By Warren Coats[1]

This Sunday, August 15, is the 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s closing of the gold window as part of the “Nixon Shock.” “Fifty years later Nixon’s August surprise still reverberates”? He announced on that day that the U.S. Treasury would no longer redeem its dollars for gold at $35 an ounce. Over the subsequent few years, the world moved from national currencies whose values were anchored to the market value of gold, to currency values determined by central banks’ regulation of their supply relative to the market’s demand. The value of one currency for another floated in the foreign exchange market. Central banks have deployed various approaches to determining the supplies of their currencies and most have now settled on targeting an inflation rate (often 2% per year) in one way or another.

With the rapidly increasing interest in cryptocurrencies, some have asked whether we are on the brink of another monetary paradigm shift? Specifically, might the dollar be replaced as the dominant international reserve currency. To explore that question we need to understand how the existing monetary systems work and how the widespread use of cryptocurrencies might add to or change these systems.?

In describing the existing and potential future monetary systems, we need to distinguish “money” from the “means of payment.” Money is the asset that people accept in payment of debts or for the purchase of goods and services. The U.S. dollar and the Euro are “money.” The means of payment refers to how money is delivered to the person being paid. Do you personally hand dollar bills and coins to the Starbucks cashier, write out a check (bank draft) and put it in the mail, or electronically transfer “money” from your bank account to an Amazon merchant via eWire, Zelle, Venmo, PayPal, or some other digital payment service? Or perhaps you purchase goods and services with borrowed money (Visa, MasterCard, American Express) that you pay back at the end of each month or over time. Or if you don’t have a bank account (a form of digital money) you might hand-deliver physical currency to a Hawala dealer or a MoneyGram or Western Union office to be electronically transferred to their office nearest to the person you are sending it to, potentially anywhere in the world. If you are paying in a currency that is different than the one the payee wishes to receive, your currency will be exchanged accordingly along the way in the foreign exchange market.

Discussions of cryptocurrencies include both the latest and evolving means of payment (digital payment technologies) as well as new, privately created moneys such as bitcoin, Ethereum, or Ripple.? Private currencies vary enormously with regard to how their value is determined. By private currencies I do not mean privately created assets redeemable for legal tender, such as our bank accounts. When we speak, for example, of the U.S. dollar, we invariably include dollar balances in our bank accounts, dollar payments made via our Visa card, etc. These are all privately produced assets that are ultimately redeemable for Federal Reserve currency or deposits at a Federal Reserve Bank. They are credible claims on the legal tender of the United States. Most U.S. dollars are privately created.

The value of all money is determined by its supply and demand. The demand for money arises from its acceptability for payment of our obligations and the quantity of such obligations (generally closely related to our incomes). Within each country, its legal tender money (e.g., the U.S. dollar in the U.S.) must be accepted by payees. In particular, it must be accepted by the government in payment of taxes.? Truly private currencies (those not redeemable for legal tender, of which there are over 11,000 at last count) have a serious challenge in this regard. Very few people or businesses will accept bitcoin, or any other such private cryptocurrency. As a result, the demand for such currencies for actual payments is very low. The demand for bitcoin, for example, is almost totally speculative–a form of gambling like the demand for lottery tickets. Such private currencies are more attractive in countries whose legal tender is rapidly inflating or has unstable value (e.g., Venezuela).

The acceptability of a currency in cross border payments raises special challenges. My currency is not likely to be the currency in general use in other countries. Someone in Mexico paying someone in Germany will generally have Mexican pesos and the recipient in Germany will want Euros. The pesos will need to be exchange for Euro in the foreign exchange market. It would be very costly for dealers in the FX market to maintain inventories of and transact in every bilateral combination of the world’s 200 or so currencies. It has proven more economical to exchange your currency for U.S. dollars and to exchange the U.S. dollars for the currency wanted by the payee. The dollar has become what is called a vehicle currency.

The economy of a so-called vehicle currency can be illustrated with languages. Two hundred and six countries are participating in the 2021 Olympic Games in Japan. To communicate with their Japanese hosts participants could all learn Japanese. It is unrealistic to expect the Japanese hosts to learn 205 foreign languages. But what about communicating with their fellow participants from the other 205 countries. For this purpose, English has become the default second language in which they all communicate. Unlike more isolated Americans, most Europeans speak several languages, but one of them is always English. English as the common language is the linguistic equivalent of the dollar as a vehicle currency.?

The rest of the value of money story focuses on its supply. Bitcoin has the virtue of having a very well defined, programmatically determined gradual growth rate until its supply reaches 21 million in about 2040. The supply today (Aug 2021) is 18.77 million. See my earlier explanation: “Cryptocurrencies-the bitcoin phenomena”? The other 11,000 plus cryptocurrencies each have their own rules for determining their supply, some explicit and some rather mysterious. The class of so called “stable coins” are linked to and often redeemable for a specific anchor, sometimes the U.S. dollar or some other currency. The credibility of these anchors varies.

The highly successful E-gold (from 1996-2006) is an example of a digital currency that had well-defined and strict backing and redemption for a commodity at a fixed price. “E-gold”? The supply of such currencies is determined by market demand for it at its fixed price–what I have elsewhere called currency board rules. I describe how currency board rules work in my book about establishing the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina:?? “One currency for Bosnia-creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina”

The dominance of the U.S. dollar in cross border payments reflects far more than its use as a vehicle currency. Many globally traded commodities, such as oil, are priced in dollars and thus payments for such purchases are settled in dollars. Pricing a homogeneous commodity trading in the global market in a single currency makes that market more efficient (the same price for the same thing).? Making cross border payments in dollars (or any other single currency) also avoids the costly need to exchange one for another in the FX market. The dollar is most often chosen because its value is relatively stable, and it has deep and liquid securities markets in which to hold dollars in reserve for use in cross border payments.

So, what are the chances that current cryptocurrency developments might precipitate a shift from the dollar to some other currency and means of payment. Several factors of U.S. policy have heightened interest by many countries in finding an alternative.? Specifically, from my recent article in the Central Banking Journal on the IMF’s $650 billion SDR allocation:

“Cumbersome payment technology. Existing arrangements for cross-border payments via Swift are technically crude and outmoded.

The weaponization of the dollar. The US has abused the importance of its currency for cross-border payments to force compliance with its policy preferences that are not always shared by other countries, by threatening to block the use of the dollar.

The growing risk of the dollar’s value. The growing expectation of dollar inflation and the skyrocketing increase in the US fiscal deficit are increasing the risk of holding and dealing in dollars.”? “The IMF’s 650bn SDR allocation and a future digital SDR”

Most central banks are upgrading their payment systems. But the Peoples Bank of the Republic of China (PBRC) is one of the most advanced in developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the e-CNY. However, it has little potential for displacing the dollar for several reasons. The Federal Reserve is also modernizing its payment technology, including exploring the design of its own CBDC, and can match China’s payment technology in the near future if necessary. More importantly, China’s capital controls, less developed Yuan financial markets, and less reliable rule of law make the Yuan an unattractive alternative to the dollar. These latter impediments do not apply to the Euro, however. “What will be impact of China’s state sponsored digital currency?”

Rather than looking for another national currency to replace the dollar, there are several advantages to using an international one. These include greater ease in making cross border payments and the reduced risk of political manipulation, or a national currency’s domestic mismanagement.? Bitcoin, for example, can make payments anywhere in the world without being controlled by any one of them. The serious drawbacks of Bitcoin’s blockchain payment technology might be overcome with one or another overlaid technology. But to become a serious currency, bitcoin must be dramatically more widely accepted in payment than it is now. Widespread acceptance in payments could generate the demand to hold them for payments, which would tend to stabilize its very erratic value. This seems very unlikely. A digital gold-based currency, such as the earlier E-gold, would enjoy the advantage of an anchor that is well known and that has enjoyed a long history. However, gold’s value has been very unstable in recent years. Aluminum has enjoyed a very stable price and elastic supply and will be the anchor for Luminium Coin to be launched in the coming weeks: https://luminiumcoin.com/

But the world has already established the internationally issued and regulated currency meant to supplement if not replace the dollar, the Special Drawing Rights of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has just approved a very large increase in its supply.? “The IMF’s 650bn SDR allocation and a future digital SDR”? The SDR’s value is determined by the market value of (currently) five major currencies in its valuation basket. While all five of these currencies have a relatively stable value, the value of the basket (portfolio) of these five is more stable still. The rules for determining the SDR’s value and supply, as well as its uses, are well established and transparent and governed by the IMF’s 190 member countries. In short, the SDR is truly international. However, it can only be used by IMF member countries and ten international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements.

While the SDR has played a limited useful role in augmenting central bank foreign exchange reserves, it has failed to achieve a significant role as an international currency because of the failure of the private sector to invoice internationally traded goods and financial instruments (such as bonds) in SDRs and the absence of a private digital SDR for payments. If the IMF is serious about making the SDR an important international currency it should turn its attention to encouraging these private sector uses of the unit. “Free Banking in the Digital Age”

In the long run the IMF should issue its official SDR according to currency board rules and anchor its value to the market value of a small basket of commodities rather than key currencies: “A Real SDR Currency Board”

?[a1]原文是 central banks’ regulation of their supply relative