Bagehot

白芝浩

The night-watchman welfare state

守夜人福利國家

How Britain ended up with the worst of all worlds

英國是如何把小政府主義和福利制度都搞砸了

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1 ALTHOUGH FOREVER associated with the term, William Beveridge never liked the phrase “welfare state”. The man who 80 years ago this month published the blueprint for Britain’s post-war welfare state thought it conjured up an image of a “brave new world”, rather than the culmination of 50 years of reform by Conservative, Liberal and, eventually, Labour politicians. Newspaper cartoonists ignored his objections. One turned a besuited Beveridge into a steaming mug being toasted by a British soldier in 1942: “Here’s to the brave new world!”

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盡管威廉-貝弗里奇（William Beveridge）永遠(yuǎn)和“福利國家”聯(lián)系在一起，但他從來不喜歡這個(gè)短語。80年前的這個(gè)月，他發(fā)表了英國戰(zhàn)后福利國家藍(lán)圖，他認(rèn)為這讓人聯(lián)想到一個(gè) "美麗新世界"，而不是保守黨、自由黨以及最終工黨政治家50年改革成果。報(bào)紙上的漫畫家無視他的意見。其中一幅漫畫將穿著西裝的貝弗里奇變成了一個(gè)熱氣騰騰的馬克杯，在1942年一名英國士兵用它敬酒，喊道："為勇敢的新世界干杯！"

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2 A plan to combat the five giants of want, ignorance, squalor, idleness and disease was the defining political quest of the first half of the 20th century. It replaced a rather 19th- century idea of a “night-watchman state”, where the government saw its role as offering physical security and not much more. Skip forward eight decades and Britain has ended up with the worst of both worlds. Britain is a libertarian’s nightmare, with the state expanding to 45% of GDP; the tax burden is likely to creep towards levels not seen since Clement Attlee, the Labour prime minister who put Beveridge’s plan into practice. Yet it also manages to be a social democrat horror show, achieving little despite its vast size.

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20世紀(jì)上半葉的決定性政治追求是與貧困、缺乏教育、衛(wèi)生水平低下、失業(yè)率高和疾病這五大巨頭作斗爭。它取代了19世紀(jì)的"守夜人國家"的設(shè)想，該設(shè)想中的政府僅僅提供人身安全保護(hù)。八十年后，英國最終得到了這兩個(gè)世界中最糟糕的結(jié)果。英國是一個(gè)自由主義者的噩夢(mèng)，政府預(yù)算擴(kuò)張到了GDP的45%；稅收負(fù)擔(dān)可能會(huì)爬升到工黨首相克萊門特··艾德禮（英國首相1945—1951年）以來的最高水平，貝弗里奇的計(jì)劃就是在其任期內(nèi)實(shí)施的。然而，它還成為一個(gè)社會(huì)民主主義者的恐怖秀，盡管英國規(guī)模龐大，但成就甚少。

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3 Increasingly the Conservative government provides a welfare state in name, but a bare bones night-watchman state in practice. The police will probably find your killer but they will make no effort to find your stolen bicycle. If you’re hit by a car, the NHS is likely to save your life. But if you require a hernia operation, you may wait a year or two (or give up and go private). A 19th-century concept of the state has collided with a 20th-century vision to create an intolerable 21st-century chimera.

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保守黨政府越來越多地在名義上提供一個(gè)福利國家，但在實(shí)踐中卻是一個(gè)事實(shí)上的守夜人國家。警察可能會(huì)找到殺害你的兇手，但他們不會(huì)努力去尋找你被盜的自行車。如果你被車撞了，英國國民醫(yī)療服務(wù)體系可能會(huì)救你的命。但如果你需要做疝氣手術(shù)，你可能要等上一兩年（或者放棄公立醫(yī)院，去私人醫(yī)院）。19世紀(jì)的國家概念與20世紀(jì)的愿景相碰撞，產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)難以容忍的21世紀(jì)幻想。

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4 The promise of a cradle-to-grave system has been replaced by a cradle-and-grave one, with the middle largely forgotten. Working-age benefits are terrible. Unemployment benefit is set slightly above destitution levels, at barely ￡80 ($91) per week, says the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank. That equates to 14% of average earnings or roughly half the level it was in the 1970s. In the Netherlands, this payment starts at 75% of someone’s last payslip.

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一個(gè)從搖籃到墳?zāi)沟母＠到y(tǒng)承諾已經(jīng)被一個(gè)搖籃和墳?zāi)沟南到y(tǒng)所取代，中間的部分基本上被遺忘。工作年齡段的福利很糟糕。智囊團(tuán)決議基金會(huì)（Resolution Foundation）表示，失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的設(shè)定略高于赤貧水平，每周僅有80英鎊（91美元）。這相當(dāng)于平均收入的14%，或大約是1970年代水平的一半。在荷蘭，失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的起點(diǎn)是失業(yè)者最后工資單的75%。

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5 In theory, the night-watchman state does little but is, at least, cheap. A welfare state may cost a lot but it provides a lot. The current British state falls between these two stools. Britain still has a comparatively low tax take compared with other rich European countries. But some people within the system are hammered, suffering Scandinavian-level marginal tax rates for South Carolinian services. A recent graduate earning ￡30,000 faces an almost Scandi marginal tax rate of just over 41% once national insurance and student-loan deductions (which behave like a tax) are included.

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從理論上講，守夜人國家做得很少，但至少其成本是很低的。一個(gè)福利國家可能花費(fèi)很多，但它也提供了很多。目前的英國國家介于這兩種路線之間。與其他富裕的歐洲國家相比，英國的稅收仍然相對(duì)較低。但是，稅收系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的一些人受到了打擊，他們只享受到南卡羅來納州（美國貧困州）的服務(wù)水平卻承受著北歐的高稅收。一個(gè)收入為3萬英鎊的應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生，一旦將國家保險(xiǎn)和學(xué)生貸款扣除（其行為類似于稅收），就會(huì)面臨幾乎是北歐的邊際稅率，即41%以上。

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6 This situation will get worse. Einstein is said to have joked that compound interest was the most powerful force in the universe. He might have added: the second-most-powerful force is fiscal drag. If the government freezes the threshold for the higher tax rate of 40% at ￡50,000, a senior teacher will end up in a tax bracket designed for well-paid solicitors. As an added blow, once-universal perks, such as child benefit, are whittled when incomes hit ￡50,000. If nominal wage growth remains healthy, come 2027 a Londoner on an average salary (currently ￡42,000) would begin to lose their child benefit. Beveridge pushed his reforms with the slogan: “Bread for all…before cake for anyone”. Now the mantra is bread for some and cake is off the menu.

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這種情況會(huì)越來越糟。據(jù)說愛因斯坦曾開玩笑說，復(fù)利是宇宙中最強(qiáng)大的力量。他可能還說：第二大力量是財(cái)政阻力。如果政府將40%的高稅率起征點(diǎn)凍結(jié)在5萬英鎊，那么一位高級(jí)教師最終將進(jìn)入為高薪律師設(shè)計(jì)的稅率等級(jí)。還有一個(gè)額外的打擊，曾經(jīng)普遍存在的福利，如兒童補(bǔ)助金，在收入達(dá)到5萬英鎊時(shí)就會(huì)被削減。如果名義工資保持健康增長，到2027年，一個(gè)平均工資（目前為42,000英鎊）的倫敦人將開始失去他們的兒童補(bǔ)助金。貝弗里奇推動(dòng)改革時(shí)提出的口號(hào)是："為所有人提供面包......而不是為任何人提供蛋糕"?，F(xiàn)在的口號(hào)是為一些人提供面包，而蛋糕則不在菜單上。

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7 Taxes are high enough to create big expectations, but too low for them to be met. The contributory system, which allows people who pay in more to take out more, has enabled many northern European countries to remain generous. In Britain that principle is dead. National insurance is a bog-standard tax, even if people like to pretend it is a pot of money with their name on it. Pensioners are aggrieved that the state pension is lower than in, say, Ireland, even if it is much more generous than it was. Younger voters are fed up that the state provides so little yet takes so much, largely to hand money to older generations. There is little optimism that they will benefit in turn.

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稅收高到足以產(chǎn)生巨大的期望，但實(shí)際回報(bào)卻又太低，無法滿足這些期望。繳費(fèi)制度允許繳費(fèi)多的人拿出更多的錢，這使得許多北歐國家能夠保持慷慨。在英國，這一原則已經(jīng)失效。國民保險(xiǎn)是一種平平無奇的稅收，即使人們喜歡假裝它是一個(gè)有自己名字的存錢罐。養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者對(duì)其金額低于愛爾蘭等國感到不滿，盡管養(yǎng)老金以前要慷慨得多。年輕的選民對(duì)國家提供如此之少福利卻拿走如此之多收入感到厭煩，稅收主要是為了把錢交給老一輩。他們對(duì)自己能夠得到的受益并不樂觀。

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8 Even the literal night-watchman part of the state is asleep on the job. The proportion of crimes that lead to a charge has fallen from 16% in 2016 to 5.6% today. Petrol theft is in effect legal—at least according to a flow-chart that dictates whether an officer from the Metropolitan Police bothers to investigate the crime. Unless the number plate of the driver has been captured in the same situation before, the police will close the case. People can show the cops a live GPS tracker of their missing laptop and be told that there is nothing that can be done. A stolen car is written off with an apologetic automated email from the police. The long arm of the law is rather short.

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即使是字面上守夜人的部分，也在工作中睡著了。足以提出指控的犯罪比例已從2016年的16%下降到今天的5.6%。盜竊汽油實(shí)際上是合法的--至少根據(jù)一個(gè)警察流程圖，該流程圖決定了倫敦警察局的警官是否會(huì)去調(diào)查該罪行。除非司機(jī)的車牌曾經(jīng)在同樣的情況下被拍到過，否則警察就會(huì)結(jié)案處理。人們向警察展示他們丟失筆記本電腦的實(shí)時(shí)GPS追蹤器，但卻被告知無計(jì)可施。汽車偷盜案件被撤銷了，警察會(huì)發(fā)來一封自動(dòng)生成的道歉郵件。法律的權(quán)威是相當(dāng)有限的。

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A broken light

一盞破損的燈

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9 Spared the worst of austerity, the National Health Service (NHS) is the only adequately funded part of the British state, and then barely. At times the NHS seems itself to be a pale imitation of the welfare state. Doctors will prescribe food vouchers for people to claim at a food bank, since in-work benefits are too low. One hospital trust has set up its own supported-living unit because the council is too broke to fund theirs. Elsewhere, a charitable wing of a hospital pays for local low-traffic neighbourhoods rather than the council that is actually responsible for roads. The NHS is burdened with such tasks while waiting lists are at historic highs of 7m. It has become the state of last resort.

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英國國家衛(wèi)生服務(wù)系統(tǒng)（NHS）沒有受到最嚴(yán)重的財(cái)政緊縮的影響，是英國政府中唯一資金充足的部門，除了它就沒有了。有時(shí)，NHS本身似乎是對(duì)福利國家的一種蒼白的模仿。由于在職福利太低，醫(yī)生會(huì)給人們開出食品券，讓他們?nèi)ナ澄镔c濟(jì)處領(lǐng)取食品。一家由英國財(cái)政支持的醫(yī)院已經(jīng)建立了自己的生活輔助設(shè)施，因?yàn)楫?dāng)?shù)氐恼?wù)委員會(huì)太窮了，無法資助他們的生活。在其他地方，一家醫(yī)院的慈善機(jī)構(gòu)為當(dāng)?shù)氐徒煌康慕謪^(qū)支付維護(hù)費(fèi)用，而不是由實(shí)際負(fù)責(zé)該道路的政務(wù)委員會(huì)支付。在醫(yī)療等待名單達(dá)到700萬的歷史高位時(shí)，NHS卻要還承擔(dān)這些額外的任務(wù)。它已經(jīng)成為英國政府最后的遮羞布。

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10 Britain has always attempted to provide a welfare state on the cheap. An ageing population, forcing ever greater demands on a struggling state, means that this approach has run out of road. A part-watchman, part-welfare state does not work very well. In 1942, as the second world war raged, Beveridge wrote that “a revolutionary moment in the world’s history is a time for revolutions, not for patching”. Once again, the time for patching is over.

run out of road 行不通 ?

英國一直試圖提供一個(gè)廉價(jià)的福利國家。人口老齡化，迫使一個(gè)苦苦掙扎的國家面臨更大的財(cái)政需求，這意味著之前的方法已經(jīng)走不通了。一個(gè)半守夜人、半福利的國家并不能很好地運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。1942年，當(dāng)?shù)诙问澜绱髴?zhàn)肆虐時(shí)，貝弗里奇寫道："世界歷史上的變革契機(jī)是為了巨變，而不是修補(bǔ)"。如今再一次提醒，打補(bǔ)丁的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去了。