今天我們一起精讀《The。Economist》2023.5.17刊

Finance & economics版塊：

How to Invest in Artificial Intelligence

如何投資人工智能行業(yè)

【外刊導讀】

生成式AI的興起，激發(fā)了新一輪對于人工智能公司的投資押注。投資者們期望能夠找到下一個超高市值的科技公司，但問題在于如何投資。一方面，許多革命性創(chuàng)新技術的價值往往被老牌科技巨頭所占有。但另一方面，創(chuàng)業(yè)公司不會像科技巨頭那樣過度追求利潤，因此更愿意在全新的市場和全新的技術上投入探索。但弄清創(chuàng)新是否具有顛覆性，對于找到下一個超高市值的科技公司至關重要。此外，看清革命性技術能否帶來革命性的商業(yè)價值也同樣重要。

這篇文章共8段，加油！

譯文及學習筆記：

*序號按照原文段落順序排列

*中文譯文為筆者自譯，僅供學習交流使用，如有任何錯誤或不同意見，誠請批評指正!

1

It has been a?torrid?18 months for investors who bet on tech. SoftBank, a Japanese investment firm that?epitomised?the 2010s boom in venture capital for companies with rapid-growth ambitions, is still?smarting?from the shift to a world of higher interest rates and lower corporate valuations. But there is one area in which the firm, run by Son Masayoshi, its?charismatic?founder, wants to?peek above the parapet: investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

軟銀是一家日本投資公司，是二十一世紀初期掀起的風險投資熱潮的縮影，它們專為擁有快速增長野心的公司注入資金。這些押注了軟銀的投資者們煎熬了18個月，但仍然為高利率和低公司股價感到扎心。但仍有一個領域的公司不同，這家公司由富有魅力的創(chuàng)始人孫正義經營，他力排眾議：投資人工智能。

Torrid

本意是干燥，torrid zone熱帶，想象一下熱帶沙漠撒哈拉，torrid用來描述非常炎熱和干燥的事物，引申為過度和強烈，不僅是熱的，而且令人無法抗拒和承受。

Epitomize

指概括人、物或概念的典型特征。epi-表示在…之上，-tom表示切入，如atom本意是不可再分的粒子。Epitomize其實是指在深入了解之后得出的總結和概括。

vt.成為…的典范(或典型)

The fighting qualities of the team are epitomized by the captain.

這個隊的戰(zhàn)斗精神從隊長身上體現(xiàn)出來。

These movies seem to epitomize the 1950s.

這些影片似乎就是20世紀50年代的縮影。

Smart

在這里是熟詞生義，smart除了表示聰明的以外，還可表示引起刺痛的。大概聰明的頭腦容易說出令人刺痛的話吧。

Charismatic

形容一個人具有無法抵御的吸引力和感染力，能夠贏得人們的信任和支持，并達成自己想要實現(xiàn)的目標或愿望。一些政治領袖往往會有Charisma。

Peek above the parapet

是指突出自己的意見或建議，在團隊或集體中發(fā)表不同于常規(guī)的觀點。這個習語來源于軍事作戰(zhàn)中設置在壕溝前面的矮墻，軍人需趴在其后方探頭窺視敵軍情況，并使自己的身體暴露在敵軍火力下。因此這種行為往往也會面臨其他人的反對、批評和壓力。"Parapet"是提供防護和額外支撐的構筑物，用于城堡、要塞等建筑物。

parapet

/?p?r?p?t/

n.防護矮墻

2

The advances of generative-AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, have left just about every investor discussing what to make of the?incipient?industry, and which firms it might upturn. Mr Son sees parallels with the early period of the internet. Generative AI could provide a new pipeline of initial public offerings—and the foundation for the next generation of mega-cap tech firms.

生成式AI平臺的進步，如ChatGPT，幾乎每位投資者都在討論如何看待這個剛剛起步的行業(yè)，以及它可能會顛覆哪些公司。孫正義看出了早期互聯(lián)網時期的相似性。生成式AI可以為首次公開募股提供一條新的通道——成為下一代大型科技公司的根基。

incipient

adj.初期的;早期的;初始的;剛開始的，指一個事物處于其初期的階段，還沒有完全成熟。例如"incipient technology"可以表示一項高新技術，將來可能有很大的發(fā)展前途。

3

Investors face two questions. The first is which frontier technologies will make market leaders a fortune. That is difficult enough. The second,?establishing?whether the value will?accrue to?upstarts backed by venture capital or existing technology giants, is at least as tricky. Nobody knows if it is better to have the best chatbot or plenty of customers—having a head start in a?whizzy?new tech is not the same as being able to make money from it. Indeed, lots of the value of revolutionary innovation is often captured by existing giants.

投資者面臨兩個問題。第一個是，哪些前沿技術將為領導者帶來財富？這個問題十分困難。第二個是，確認由風險投資和現(xiàn)有的技術巨頭支持的新貴是否能夠實現(xiàn)資產增值？這個問題也同樣棘手。沒有人知道擁有最好的聊天機器人更好還是足夠多的用戶更好——創(chuàng)業(yè)公司在技術革新中擁有先發(fā)優(yōu)勢和能從中賺錢不是一回事。實際上，很多革命性創(chuàng)新的價值通常被現(xiàn)有的巨頭公司所占據(jù)。

accrue

v.累積;(逐漸)增長，增加;(使錢款、債務)積累

Establish

vt.創(chuàng)立;設立;建立(尤指正式關系);確立;使立足;使穩(wěn)固;獲得接受;查實

He has just set up his own business but it will take him a while to get established .

他剛建立起自己的公司，但要站穩(wěn)腳跟還得花上一段時間。

That link is an established medical fact.

那一關聯(lián)是已經證實的醫(yī)學事實。

Medical tests established that she was not their own child...

醫(yī)學化驗證實她不是他們的親骨肉。

Whizzy

技術革新的；技術先進的，這個詞最初在計算機技術和互聯(lián)網領域中被廣泛使用，用來形容某種程序或軟件能夠快速、有效地實現(xiàn)某個功能或者任務。

Wizzy, wizard, sorcerer, 巫師；witch女巫

4

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are three of the seven largest listed companies in America, worth a combined $3.4trn. They were founded between 1994 and 2004, emerging at a time when internet technology was new and people were spending an increasing amount of time online. Alibaba, a?..e-commerce giant, is another similar example (SoftBank’s early $20m stake in the company helped?cement?Mr Son’s reputation as an investor). Spotting tech trends, and developing the best platforms, generated a?gargantuan?amount of value for early and even not-so-early investors. Legacy firms struggled to jump on the?bandwagon.

Alphabet、亞馬遜和Meta是7大美國上市公司找中的三家，合計市值達3.4兆億美元。它們在1994年至2004年之間成立，那個時代互聯(lián)網科技還很新，而且人們上網的時間越來越長。..的電商巨頭阿里巴巴是另一個相似的例子（軟銀早期對該公司投資的2000萬美元穩(wěn)固了孫正義投資者的地位）。發(fā)現(xiàn)科技趨勢、開發(fā)最好的平臺為早期甚至不那么早期的投資帶來了巨大財富。當時的傳統(tǒng)公司也在奮力趕上這一浪潮。

Cement

N.(干燥后硬化的)水泥;膠合劑;膠接劑;黏固劑;紐帶，凝聚力

vt.(用水泥、膠等)粘結，膠合;加強，鞏固(關系等)

gargantuan

/ɡɑ?r?ɡ?nt?u?n/

adj.巨大的;龐大的

a gargantuan appetite/meal

食欲極佳；豐盛的大餐

...a marketing event of gargantuan proportions.

大規(guī)模的促銷活動

bandwagon

/?b?ndw?ɡ?n/

n.風靡的活動;時尚

The World Cup bandwagon is starting to roll.

世界杯足球賽熱潮即將涌起。

So what is really happening as the information bandwagon starts to roll?

當信息大潮滾滾而來的時候究竟發(fā)生了些什么呢？

5

Will the story be the same this time around? The insights of?Clayton Christensen, a management?guru?who pioneered a theory of innovation just as the internet giants were bursting onto the scene, can provide a useful guide. Christensen noted that smaller companies often?gain traction?in low-end markets and entirely new ones, which the largest incumbents?eschew. The?incumbents?focus on deploying new technology for their existing customers and lines of business. They are not incompetent or ignorant of technological progress. Instead, they follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximising perspective—until it is too late and they are fatally undermined.

這次的故事還會一樣嗎？在互聯(lián)網巨頭們嶄露頭角之際，管理學泰斗克萊頓·克里斯坦森開創(chuàng)了創(chuàng)新理論，為它們提供了有利的指導?？死锼固股赋?，小公司往往容易在低端市場和全新市場中受歡迎，而現(xiàn)存的大型公司都會盡力避開。這些公司專注于為現(xiàn)有用戶和業(yè)務線使用新技術。他們并不是對技術進步一無所知或漠不關心，相反，從利潤最大化的角度來看，他們似乎走的是正確道路——但直到為時已晚，損失慘重。

Clayton M. Christensen

克萊頓·克里斯坦森（Clayton M. Christensen)世界創(chuàng)新大師、哈佛商學院教授,曾兩次獲得“麥肯錫獎”,榮獲2011年《哈佛商業(yè)評論》“當代50名最具影響力的商業(yè)思想家”，曾在 1990?年代中期提出了顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論。

guru

[?ɡ?ru?]

n. 古魯(印度教或錫克教的宗教導師或領袖); 專家; 權威; 大師

Gain traction

越來越受歡迎;獲得引力

The coronavirus pandemic has helped the idea of a four-day workweek gain traction as the health crisis causes people to spend more time at home.

疫情危機導致人們有更多的時間待在家里，因此每周四天工作制的想法也越來越受歡迎。

a market I was finding hard to gain traction in as a woman.

作為一個女人，我發(fā)現(xiàn)很難在這市場得到吸引力。

Incumbent

/?n?k?mb?nt/

n.在職者;現(xiàn)任者

6

Investors like Mr Son, excited about the future of startups that focus on AI, are?implicitly?presuming that a period of disruptive innovation is under way. But most of the recent excitement about generative-AI platforms has focused on their potential as a new technology to be deployed, not as companies which could open up brand new markets. In the case of other recent technological innovations, incumbents have won the day. Elad Gil, a venture capitalist, has noted that the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued almost entirely to incumbents.?The early internet startups have benefited, as have Microsoft and chip firms like Nvidia and Micron. The earlier stages of machine learning produced no listed firms that might be considered the Amazon or Google of their niche.

像孫正義這樣的投資者，對專注于AI的初創(chuàng)公司的未來感到興奮，他們都暗自認為破壞性創(chuàng)新時代正在來臨。但是最近大部分關于生成式AI平臺的興頭都集中在其作為一種有待使用的新技術的潛力，而非可以開辟全新市場的企業(yè)。就其他技術創(chuàng)新而言，這些現(xiàn)存企業(yè)贏得了勝利。風險投資者埃拉德·吉爾(Elad Gil)指出，此前在機器學習方面取得的進步（生成式AI平臺只是一部分）的價值幾乎全部歸功于現(xiàn)有大型科技公司。早期的互聯(lián)網初創(chuàng)公司收益頗豐，微軟和英偉達、美光等芯片公司也從中獲益。機器學習發(fā)展的早期階段沒有產生能有亞馬遜或谷歌這種市場地位的上市公司。

Implicitly

含蓄地;無保留地;暗中地;不明顯地;無疑問地

注：這是文章觀點的核心支持證據(jù)：the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued almost entirely to incumbents。（機器學習領域革新幾乎全部來自現(xiàn)有大型科技公司，而生成式人工智能也屬于機器學習技術的一部分。

7

Christensen’s insights make clear that revolutionary innovation does not always end up being revolutionary in business terms. Yet existing tech firms are now spending enormous sums on AI, suggesting they should be well-placed if the tech does turn out to revolutionise business. It is possible an investment in a broad index fund tracking existing listed tech firms will end up?outperforming?the equivalent investment in private, strictly AI-focused startups.

克里斯坦森的觀點說明革命性的創(chuàng)新并不總會導致商業(yè)方面的變革。然而，現(xiàn)存的科技公司正在為AI豪擲千金，這表明，如果這項技術真的能夠變革商業(yè)，他們應該會處于有利地位。在同樣的投資規(guī)模下，投資跟蹤廣義指數(shù)基金的現(xiàn)有上市科技公司，最后可能會跑贏投資私營的、嚴格專注于AI的新創(chuàng)公司。

Outperform

勝過、超過

In recent years the Austrian economy has outperformed most other industrial economies...

近幾年，奧地利的經濟發(fā)展超過了其他多數(shù)工業(yè)國。

8

Theories about why innovation is sometimes disruptive and sometimes not are more often discussed by students of business and management than stockpickers. But the difference between the two possibilities is crucial in assessing whether the next generation of listed tech companies, with market capitalisations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, is to be found among private AI firms. As things stand, it looks more likely that the market value of the technology will end up as a new string to the bow of already giant tech firms.

關于為什么創(chuàng)新有時具有破壞性，而有時沒有的原理，商業(yè)與管理專業(yè)的學生往往比股民探討得更多。但在評估私人AI公司中是否會出現(xiàn)市值高達數(shù)千億美元的下一代上市科技公司時，這兩種可能性之間的差異就變得至關重要。就目前情況而言，這項技術的市場價值最終有可能成為現(xiàn)有大型科技公司新的機會和方向。

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