International trade：?Changing places?

The pandemic will not end globalisation, but it will reshape it? ?

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Unhappily, the political appeal of protectionism grows during slumps. When economies lack demand, governments covet?spending that leaks overseas on imports.This is what led to a devastating round of protectionism in the 1930S. Protection also rose after the financial crisis.?It does not help that China’s stimulus has tried to keep production going, whereas rich-world governments have supported household incomes. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, notes that China’s current-account surplus, which was shrinking, has exploded this year. Its exports have recovered strongly, outward flows of tourists have all but stopped and commodity prices have fallen, making imports cheaper. Were China’s trade surplus in July sustained for a year it would add up to $700bn, surely enough to worsen the trade war with America even if Joe Biden replaces Mr Trump.

covet ?v. /?k?v?t/ ?渴望；貪求（尤指別人的東西）；覬覦? He had long coveted the chance to work with a famous musician. 他一直渴望有機會與著名音樂家一起工作。

current-account 活期存款賬戶的；往來賬戶的

surplus /?s??pl?s/ ?

名詞?1.過剩；剩余；過剩量；剩余額?food surpluses 過剩的食物

2.盈余；順差??a trade surplus of ￡400 million 4億英鎊的貿(mào)易盈余

形容詞：~ (to sth) ?過剩的；剩余的；多余的??surplus cash 剩余的現(xiàn)金??These items are surplus to requirements (= not needed) . 這幾項不需要。

Such is the confluence of forces?bearing down?on global trade organic slowbalisation, trade wars, suspicion of supply chains that some draw comparisons between today and the early 20th century. Then, a peak in globalisation collapsed under the weight of the first world war, Spanish flu and then the 1930S depression.

Confluence??n. /?k?nflu?ns/ ?1.(術(shù)語 ) （河流的）匯合處，匯流處，交匯處?2.（事物的）匯合，匯聚，匯集?a confluence of social factors 多種社會因素的匯集

bear down：擊敗，壓倒；用力產(chǎn)出胎兒；用力壓；加倍努力；逼近

Organic??adj./???ɡ?n?k/ ?1.(食品、耕作方式等)有機的；不使用化肥的；綠色的??organic cheese/vegetables/wine, etc. 有機奶酪、蔬菜、酒等?2. 有機物的；生物的??organic compounds 有機化合物?3.(術(shù)語) 器官的；器質(zhì)性的；官能的??organic disease 器官疾病4.有機的；統(tǒng)一的；關(guān)聯(lián)的??the view of society as an organic whole 視社會為一有機體的觀點?5.逐漸的；演進(jìn)的；自然的?the organic growth of foreign markets 國外市場的逐步發(fā)展

The comparison is too pessimistic. Trade has not done as badly as feared. In April the WTO forecast that goods trade would fall by 13-32% this year; today it seems more likely to be just 10%. The IMF says the decline in trade will be commensurate?with the slump in demand from the recession. That is in contrast to the?aftermath?of the financial crisis, when trade fell by more than its usual relationship with GDP suggested. It also shows that supply chains have not been wholly wrecked. They were crucial for the response to PPE shortages, argues Sebastien Miroudot?of the?OECD?club of mostly rich countries. South Korea, which has been exporting millions of test kits to America and Europe, was uniquely placed to?ramp up production using existing supply chains and relationships.

Commensurate??adj./k??men??r?t/ ?~ (with sth)（在大小、重要性、質(zhì)量等方面）相稱的，相當(dāng)?shù)?? Salary will be commensurate with experience. 薪金將會與資歷相稱。

aftermath ?n. /?ɑ?ft?m?θ/ ?/?mɑ?θ/ ?（戰(zhàn)爭、事故、不快事情的）后果，創(chuàng)傷?? A lot of rebuilding took place in the aftermath of the war. 戰(zhàn)后進(jìn)行了大量的重建工作。

Wrecked??adj./rekt/ 1.失事的；遇難的；毀壞的??a wrecked ship/marriage 遇難的船只；破裂的婚姻?2.喝得爛醉

?OECD：Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ?經(jīng)合組織，經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織（工業(yè)化國家鼓勵貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的組織）

ramp up增加; 使增加

The logic of turning inward in response to the pandemic is shaky. A recent working paper by Barthelemy Bonadio of the University of Michigan and three co-authors studies 64 countries and finds that one-quarter of the drop in GDP this year was transmitted along supply chains, but that reshoring production would not have reduced the damage.Mr Miroudot distinguishes a supply chain's robustness?(the ability to keep working through a crisis), from its resilience (the ability to bounce back from?one). The history of supply chains is that they are not robust but they are resilient, because companies are quick to find workarounds. Their robustness could be improved, but not by repatriating?production, since disaster can strike at home as well.Had New York been the centre of mask production when covid-19 struck, the result would have been a "real big mess", argues Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Robustness /r???b?stn?s/[自] 魯棒性；[計] 穩(wěn)健性；健壯性

bounce ?back?恢復(fù)健康（或信心等）；重整旗鼓

Workaround??/?w??k?ra?nd/ (計) 應(yīng)變方法；變通方法

repatriate ?v. /?ri??p?trie?t/ ?1.遣送回國；遣返??The refugees were forcibly repatriated. 難民被強制遣送回國。 2.(商) 寄（錢）回國；將（利潤）調(diào)回本國

譯文

Unhappily, the political appeal of protectionism grows during slumps. When economies lack demand, governments?covet?spending that leaks overseas on imports.This is what led to a devastating round of protectionism in the 1930S. Protection also rose after the financial crisis.?It does not help that China’s stimulus has tried to keep production going, whereas rich-world governments have supported household incomes. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, notes that China’s current-account surplus, which was shrinking, has exploded this year. Its exports have recovered strongly, outward flows of tourists have all but stopped and commodity prices have fallen, making imports cheaper. Were China’s trade surplus in July sustained for a year it would add up to $700bn, surely enough to worsen the trade war with America even if Joe Biden replaces Mr Trump.

不幸地是，貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的政治訴求在經(jīng)濟衰退期增長。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟需求不足，政府垂涎進(jìn)口漏出的每一筆支出。這種想法導(dǎo)致了19世紀(jì)30年代貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義毀滅性的浪潮。保護(hù)主義也在金融危機后滋生。中國出臺刺激政策刺激生產(chǎn)；富裕國家正在苦苦支撐家庭收入，這加劇貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭。智囊機構(gòu)對外關(guān)系委員會的Brad Setser提到中國對外的往來賬戶剩余本已經(jīng)萎縮，而今年卻極速增長。中國出口恢復(fù)迅速，海外旅游行業(yè)全部停止，大宗商品價格下跌，讓進(jìn)口變得更加容易。如果中國的貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)一年，應(yīng)該會達(dá)到7000億美元，則肯定會在中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)上雪上加霜。即使拜登上臺也不能緩解。

Such is the confluence of forces?bearing down?on global trade organic slowbalisation, trade wars, suspicion of supply chains that some draw comparisons between today and the early 20th century. Then, a peak in globalisation collapsed under the weight of the first world war, Spanish flu and then the 1930S depression.

這些力量匯聚在一起迫使全球貿(mào)易自然放緩。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)、對供應(yīng)鏈的不信任讓有心人將現(xiàn)在與20世紀(jì)初進(jìn)行比較。那時候全球化在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)、西班牙流感的重壓下崩塌，然后迎來了20世紀(jì)30年代的大蕭條。

The comparison is too pessimistic. Trade has not done as badly as feared. In April the WTO forecast that goods trade would fall by 13-32% this year; today it seems more likely to be just 10%. The IMF says the decline in trade will be commensurate?with the slump in demand from the recession. That is in contrast to the?aftermath?of the financial crisis, when trade fell by more than its usual relationship with GDP suggested. It also shows that supply chains have not been wholly wrecked. They were crucial for the response to PPE shortages, argues Sebastien Miroudot?of the?OECD?club of mostly rich countries. South Korea, which has been exporting millions of test kits to America and Europe, was uniquely placed to?ramp up production using existing supply chains and relationships.

當(dāng)然這樣的比較悲觀。貿(mào)易并沒有像擔(dān)憂的那樣差。4月，WTO預(yù)測今年貨物貿(mào)易會下降13%-32%，而現(xiàn)在看起來頂多10%。國際貨幣基金組織表示貿(mào)易削減量與經(jīng)濟衰退期間的需求量下滑相當(dāng)。這與08年金融危機的后果不太一樣，那時候貿(mào)易下降幅度超過它與GDP通常關(guān)系所展示的水平。全球富國組成的經(jīng)合組織成員Sebastien Miroudot辯道，這表明供應(yīng)鏈并沒有完全被破壞。這對于個人防護(hù)用品短缺進(jìn)行反應(yīng)是非常關(guān)鍵的。韓國已經(jīng)向歐美出口了數(shù)以百萬計的測試劑。它利用得天獨厚的地理條件和現(xiàn)有供應(yīng)鏈及與歐美的關(guān)系使得產(chǎn)能快速增加。

The logic of turning inward in response to the pandemic is shaky. A recent working paper by Barthelemy Bonadio of the University of Michigan and three co-authors studies 64 countries and finds that one-quarter of the drop in GDP this year was transmitted along supply chains, but that reshoring production would not have reduced the damage.Mr Miroudot distinguishes a supply chain's robustness?(the ability to keep working through a crisis), from its resilience (the ability to bounce back from?one). The history of supply chains is that they are not robust but they are resilient, because companies are quick to find workarounds. Their robustness could be improved, but not by repatriating?production, since disaster can strike at home as well.Had New York been the centre of mask production when covid-19 struck, the result would have been a "real big mess", argues Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

因為疫情而轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)發(fā)展的邏輯并不牢固。最近由密歇根大學(xué)Barthelemy Bonadio 和其他三位聯(lián)合作者通過研究64個國家發(fā)現(xiàn)今年GDP下降的4四分之一是通過供應(yīng)鏈傳遞的，但制造業(yè)回流并不能減少損失。Miroudot 先生通過供應(yīng)鏈的彈性（從損害中恢復(fù)的能力）分辨供應(yīng)鏈魯棒性（抗風(fēng)險能力）。供應(yīng)鏈的歷史表明它不具有魯棒性但是它有彈性，因為企業(yè)能快速找到變通方法。供應(yīng)鏈魯棒性可以被提高但并不是通過制造業(yè)回流達(dá)到該目的，因為災(zāi)害也會在家鄉(xiāng)發(fā)生。對外關(guān)系委員會?Shannon O'Neil表示如果疫情期間紐約是口罩生產(chǎn)中心，那會造成巨大的混亂。

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經(jīng)濟學(xué)人11月刊