「釋義」

戰(zhàn)略展望一種結(jié)構和文化分析方法，可以幫助企業(yè)在早期發(fā)現(xiàn)不可持續(xù)的缺陷，解釋缺陷帶來的后果，并且制定有效的長期生存和興旺的模式。

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「應用場景」

戰(zhàn)略展望就是一種可行的辦法，筆者研究其歷史、理論及實踐已有數(shù)年。戰(zhàn)略展望的目的不是預測未來，而是增強我們感受、描繪和適應今后幾年各種事件的能力，以這種創(chuàng)造性的方式想象多種多樣的未來。戰(zhàn)略展望不是讓我們確定自己未來該思考些什么，而是幫助我們學習如何思考未來。

Strategic foresight—the history, theory, and practice of which I have spent years researching—offers a way forward. Its aim is not to predict the future but rather to make it possible to imagine multiple futures in creative ways that heighten our ability to sense, shape, and adapt to what happens in the years ahead. Strategic foresight doesn’t help us figure out?what?to think about the future. It helps us figure out?how?to think about it.

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誠然，越來越多的研究表明，即使是在地緣政治學等混亂的領域，也有可能做出更加準確的預測。我們應當盡可能地將這類預測技術運用到極致。不過，等到預測工具到達了極限，我們就需要轉(zhuǎn)向戰(zhàn)略展望。無法消解的未來不確定性，正是戰(zhàn)略展望的起點。在高度不確定的情況下，戰(zhàn)略展望可以幫助領導者做出更好的決定。

To be sure, a growing body of research has demonstrated that it is possible to make more-accurate predictions, even in chaotic fields like geopolitics. We should use those techniques to the extent we can. But when predictive tools reach their limits, we need to turn to strategic foresight, which takes the irreducible uncertainty of the future as a starting point. In that distinctive context, it helps leaders make better decisions.

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《從未來學習》

彼得·斯科布里克

2020年7月刊

“Learning from the Future”

by J. Peter Scoblic

編輯：馬冰侖?