Capital controls

資本管制

In full flight

全速外流

As Chinese tourists venture overseas, their money will follow them

隨著中國(guó)游客去海外旅游，他們的錢也一同前去

?

A RAILWAY TOUR of Laos, a trip to the far corner of Russia to see the Northern Lights, or a polar cruise in the Arctic. These are some of the adventurous options being marketed in China as the country reopens. The urge to travel seems strong: Ctrip, a travel agent, has reported a quadrupling of inquiries in the space of a month; students are searching more for study-abroad opportunities, too. In Macau, a gambling centre, two of the fanciest hotels are fully booked this month. If pre-pandemic patterns reassert themselves, China’s travel spending could increase by $160bn this year, according to Natixis, a bank.

?

老撾鐵路旅行，去俄羅斯的偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)看北極光，或者是乘船游覽北極風(fēng)光。隨著中國(guó)重新開(kāi)放，這些是在中國(guó)不斷推銷的一些旅行選擇。人們旅游的沖動(dòng)似乎很強(qiáng)烈:據(jù)旅行社攜程報(bào)道，在一個(gè)月的時(shí)間里，旅游咨詢量翻了兩番；學(xué)生們也在更多地尋找出國(guó)留學(xué)的機(jī)會(huì)。在博彩中心澳門(mén)，兩家最高檔的酒店本月被預(yù)訂一空。根據(jù)法國(guó)外貿(mào)銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，如果疫情前的旅行模式重新發(fā)揮作用，今年中國(guó)的旅游消費(fèi)將增加1600億美元。

?

After three years of covid-19 restrictions, this wanderlust is understandable. But alongside the obvious motives—sun, sea, sand and study—is another unstated one: spiriting money out of the country. Capital controls limit the foreign currency Chinese citizens can buy. The movement of people across borders creates cover for the movement of money. In 2017, for example, China’s authorities reported how an individual from Tianjin got hold of 39 bank cards and withdrew more than C$2.4m ($1.8m) “in the name of studying abroad”.

?

經(jīng)過(guò)三年的新冠肺炎管制，這種旅行癖是可以理解的。但是除了這些顯而易見(jiàn)的動(dòng)機(jī)——陽(yáng)光、大海、沙灘和學(xué)習(xí)——還有另一個(gè)沒(méi)有明說(shuō)的動(dòng)機(jī):把錢帶出這個(gè)國(guó)家。資本管制限制了中國(guó)公民可以購(gòu)買的外匯。人員跨境流動(dòng)為資金流動(dòng)提供了掩護(hù)。例如，2017年，中國(guó)當(dāng)局報(bào)告稱，一名天津人持有39張銀行卡，并“以留學(xué)為名”提取了逾240萬(wàn)加元(合180萬(wàn)美元)。

?

A paper published in 2017 by Anna Wong, then at America’s Federal Reserve, tried to calculate how much money was leaking out of China by this route. She examined a variety of sources in 20 popular destinations, including their balance of payments, their tallies of visitor numbers and surveys of how much a typical Chinese visitor spends. This allowed her to compare outbound spending reported in China’s balance of payments with its mirror image: inbound spending reported by countries of destination. In principle, the inbound and outbound measures should have matched. From 2014, though, a large gap emerged between the two. It reached $100bn in 2015, or 1% of China’s GDP. Ms Wong found a similarly large gap between China’s reported travel expenditure and the level predicted by an economic model, based on factors like the GDP of destination countries, their distances from the mainland and China’s own economic size.

?

2017年，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的Anna Wong發(fā)表了一篇論文，試圖推測(cè)出有多少資金通過(guò)這種途徑流出中國(guó)。她調(diào)查了20個(gè)熱門(mén)旅游目的地的各種信息來(lái)源，包括它們的國(guó)際收支、游客數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)以及普通中國(guó)游客的消費(fèi)調(diào)查。這使她能夠?qū)⒅袊?guó)國(guó)際收支平衡表中報(bào)告的出境支出與其鏡像(目的地國(guó)報(bào)告的入境支出)進(jìn)行比較。原則上，入境資金和出境資金應(yīng)該相匹配。然而，從2014年開(kāi)始，兩者之間出現(xiàn)了巨大的差距。2015年達(dá)到1000億美元，相當(dāng)于中國(guó)GDP的1%。王女士發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)報(bào)告的旅游支出與一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型預(yù)測(cè)的水平之間存在類似的巨大差距，該模型基于目的地國(guó)家的GDP、它們與中國(guó)內(nèi)地的距離以及中國(guó)自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模等因素。

?

Since then, policymakers have tightened the country’s capital controls and scrutinised transactions more closely. They have also revised past data, removing some illicit financial transactions from figures for travel spending. But a suspicious gap persists. China’s own figures for travel spending still exceed those derived from destination countries and global sources. In a report released on February 14th Natixis estimated that the gap was almost $68bn in 2020 (roughly 0.5% of China’s GDP), despite the sharp drop in travel.

?

自那以后，政策制定者收緊了該國(guó)的資本管制，并更加密切地審查交易行為。他們還修改了過(guò)去的數(shù)據(jù)，從旅游支出數(shù)據(jù)中剔除了一些非法金融交易。但是可疑的缺口依然存在。中國(guó)自己的旅游支出數(shù)據(jù)仍然超過(guò)了來(lái)自目的地國(guó)家和全球的數(shù)據(jù)。在2月14日發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中，法國(guó)外貿(mào)銀行估計(jì)，盡管旅游大幅下降，但2020年的缺口仍接近680億美元(約為中國(guó)GDP的0.5%)。

?

As China reopens, chances for circumventing capital controls will increase. The country’s currency is stable and growth this year looks likely to be strong, but Chinese households accumulated a large stash of deposits in the pandemic. The property market, historically a favoured destination for the country’s wealth, remains moribund. Thus many will be keen to diversify their assets. Most people travel to broaden their horizons. The Chinese also like to broaden their portfolios.

?

隨著中國(guó)重新開(kāi)放，規(guī)避資本管制的機(jī)會(huì)將會(huì)增加。該國(guó)貨幣穩(wěn)定，今年的增長(zhǎng)看起來(lái)可能會(huì)很強(qiáng)勁，但中國(guó)家庭在疫情期間積累了大量存款。在過(guò)去，中國(guó)財(cái)富青睞的目的地為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，但該市場(chǎng)仍處于停滯狀態(tài)。因此，許多人將熱衷于分散他們的資產(chǎn)。雖然大多數(shù)人旅行是為了開(kāi)闊視野，但中國(guó)人也喜歡拓寬自己的投資組合。