The ravages of time

時間的摧殘

Throughout history, pandemics have had profound economic effects

縱觀歷史，流行病對經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響

Pandemic//既代表瘟疫，也有流行病的意思，該次表意輕重在文中隨內(nèi)容改變

Long-run economic effects are not always dreadful

長期的經(jīng)濟影響并不總是可怕的

PANDEMICS ARE the inevitable attendants of economic progress. 流行病是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的必然產(chǎn)物。 Interconnected trade networks and teeming cities have made societies both richer and more vulnerable, from the empires of antiquity to the integrated global economy of the present.從古代帝國到今天的全球經(jīng)濟一體化，相互聯(lián)系的貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)和擁擠的城市讓社會變得更富有，也讓社會變得更脆弱。 The effects of covid-19 will be very different from those of past pathogens, which struck populations far poorer than people today, and with less knowledge of things like viruses and bacteria. covid-19的影響將與過去的致病菌大不相同，過去致病菌襲擊的人群較當(dāng)下群體更窮，人們對病毒和細(xì)菌等致病因素的了解也更少。The toll should be on a different scale than that exacted by the Black Death or Spanish flu. (如今的疫情)死亡人數(shù)應(yīng)該與黑死病或西班牙流感造成的死亡人數(shù)有所不同。Even so, the ravages of the past offer some guide as to how the global economy may change as a result of the coronavirus.即便如此，過去的災(zāi)難也為全球經(jīng)濟如何因冠狀病毒而改變提供了一些指導(dǎo)。

詞匯

Attendants/隨員，陪從

Teeming/熱鬧的，擁擠的

Antiquity/ ?高齡；古物；古代的遺物

Pathogen/病原體；病菌

Though the human costs of pandemics are dreadful, the long-run economic effects are not always so. 盡管疫情造成的人類損失是可怕的，但長期的經(jīng)濟影響并不總是如此。The Black Death carried off an astounding one-third to two-thirds of the population of Europe, leaving lasting scars. 黑死病奪去了歐洲令人驚駭?shù)娜种坏饺种娜丝?，留下了永恒的的傷疤?But in the wake of the plague there was far more arable acreage than workers to farm it. 但在鼠疫之后，可耕種的土地面積遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了工人的耕種面積。 The sudden scarcity of workers raised labourers’ bargaining power relative to landlords and contributed to the breakdown of the feudal economy. 工人的突然短缺提高了勞動者相對于地主的議價能力，并導(dǎo)致了封建經(jīng)濟的崩潰。

詞匯

Astounding/令人震驚的；令人驚駭?shù)?/p>

Arable/可耕種的，適宜耕種的

Landlord/老板；地主

It seems also to have ushered parts of north-west Europe onto a more promising growth path. 這似乎也將歐洲西北部的部分地區(qū)引入了一條更有前途的增長道路。Real incomes of European workers rose sharply following the pandemic, which struck the continent from 1347 to 1351. 從1347年到1351年，在疫情爆發(fā)之后，歐洲工人的實際收入大幅增長。In pre-industrial times, higher incomes usually enabled faster population growth, which eventually squeezed incomes back to subsistence levels (as observed by Thomas Malthus). 在前工業(yè)時代，更高的收入通常會帶來更快的人口增長，這最終會將收入壓縮到僅能維持生計的水平(正如托馬斯?馬爾薩斯(Thomas Malthus)所觀察到的)。But in parts of Europe, Malthusian rules did not reassert themselves after the pandemic receded. 但在歐洲部分地區(qū)，馬爾薩斯規(guī)則并沒有在疫情消退后重新確立。 Nico Voigtl?nder, of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Hans-Joachim Voth, now of the University of Zurich, argue that the high incomes induced by plague led to more spending on manufactured goods produced in cities, and thus to higher rates of urbanisation. 加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的Nico Voigtlander和現(xiàn)在蘇黎世大學(xué)的Hans-Joachim Voth認(rèn)為，由疫情引起的高收入導(dǎo)致了更多的消費在城市生產(chǎn)的制成品上，從而導(dǎo)致了更高的城市化率。 The plague effectively shoved parts of Europe from a low-wage, less urbanised equilibrium on a path more congenial to the development of a commercial, and then an industrial, economy. 這場瘟疫有效地將歐洲部分地區(qū)從低工資、低城市化的均衡狀態(tài)，推到了一條更適合商業(yè)、然后是工業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的道路上。

詞匯

Usher/迎接；開辟

Subsistence/生活；生存；存在

Reassert/重復(fù)主張；再斷言

Urbanisation/ ?城市化

Equilibrium/均衡；平靜；保持平衡的能力

Something similar occurred in the aftermath of the Spanish flu, which killed between 20m and 100m people from 1918 to 1920. 類似的情況也發(fā)生在西班牙流感之后。1918年至1920年，西班牙流感導(dǎo)致2000萬至1億人死亡。The industrial economies of the early 20th century were no longer bound by Malthusian constraints. 20世紀(jì)初的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟不再受馬爾薩斯規(guī)則的約束。Even so, reckon Elizabeth Brainerd, now at Brandeis University, and Mark Siegler, of California State University, American states harder hit by the disease grew faster in its aftermath. 盡管如此，現(xiàn)在布蘭迪斯大學(xué)的Elizabeth Brainerd和加州州立大學(xué)的Mark Siegler認(rèn)為，美國受艾滋病打擊更嚴(yán)重的州在災(zāi)后發(fā)展得更快。After controlling for a range of economic and demographic factors, they find that one additional death per thousand people was associated with an increase in average annual growth of real income per person over the next decade of at least 0.15 percentage points. 在控制了一系列經(jīng)濟和人口因素后，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)每千人多死一人，在未來十年人均實際收入的年平均增長率至少會增加0.15個百分點。Though the toll of covid-19 is likely to be too low to boost real wages, it may force firms to embrace new technologies in order to operate while warehouses and offices are empty, with lasting effects on growth and productivity. 盡管cod -19的也許帶來的影響（災(zāi)害）不大，無法提高實際工資，但它可能會迫使企業(yè)采用新技術(shù)，以便在倉庫和辦公室空無一人的情況下運營，從而對增長和生產(chǎn)率產(chǎn)生持久影響。

詞匯

Aftermath/后果；余波

More often, though, a pandemic’s economic consequences are unambiguously negative. 不過，更常見的情況是，流行性疾病帶來的經(jīng)濟后果無疑是負(fù)面的。Trade links which spread a pathogen can themselves be undone by its effects. 傳播病原體的貿(mào)易鏈接本身也可能因其影響而被破壞。 During the Roman Empire, a high degree of specialisation and trade lifted incomes to levels that would not be reached again for more than a millennium. 在羅馬帝國時期，高度的專業(yè)化和貿(mào)易使人們的收入達(dá)到了一個千年以后才會達(dá)到的水平。 Alas, the same links facilitated the spread of disease. 唉，這種的鏈接也促進(jìn)了疾病的傳播。The Roman economy was dealt a blow in the late second century AD, when an outbreak of what is thought to have been smallpox ravaged the empire. 公元二世紀(jì)晚期，羅馬經(jīng)濟遭受重創(chuàng)，當(dāng)時爆發(fā)了一場被認(rèn)為是天花的疾病，摧毀了羅馬帝國。A century later, the Plague of Cyprian, which may have been a haemorrhagic fever, emptied many Roman cities and coincided with a sharp and permanent decline in economic activity, as measured by numbers of shipwrecks (a proxy for trade volumes) and levels of lead pollution (generated by mining activity). 一個世紀(jì)后，塞浦路斯的瘟疫可能是一種出血熱，它使許多羅馬城市變得空空如也，同時經(jīng)濟活動也出現(xiàn)了急劇和永久性的下降，這是通過沉船數(shù)量(貿(mào)易總量的一個指標(biāo))和鉛污染水平(由采礦活動產(chǎn)生)來衡量的。 Reduced trade fed a cycle of falling incomes and weakened state capacity from which the western empire never recovered. 貿(mào)易的減少導(dǎo)致了收入的下降和國家能力的削弱，西羅馬帝國再也沒有從中恢復(fù)過來。

詞匯

Millennium/千年期

Alas/唉（表悲傷、遺憾）

Smallpox/天花

Haemorrhagic/出血的

Shipwreck/?海難；遇難船

?

More recently, trade may well have tumbled as a result of Spanish flu, had the first world war not already brought a curtain down on the industrialised world’s first great era of globalisation. 最近，如果第一次世界大戰(zhàn)還沒有給工業(yè)化世界第一個偉大的全球化時代畫上句號，貿(mào)易很可能已經(jīng)因為西班牙流感而大幅下滑 。Covid-19 also strikes at what may be the tail end of a long period of rapid global integration, which is likewise threatened by great-power competition. Covid-19同樣打擊了可能是長期快速全球一體化的終點，而全球一體化同樣受到大國競爭的威脅。The circumstances are not identical, and trade is unlikely to suffer as badly as it did in the 1910s. 情況并不相同，貿(mào)易不太可能像20世紀(jì)10年代那樣受到嚴(yán)重影響。Still, it would not be surprising if historians identify the pandemic as one of several consequences of globalisation that eventually precipitated a new era in global trade.

盡管如此，如果歷史學(xué)家把這場疫情視為全球化的幾個后果之一，也就不足為奇了。全球化最終促成了全球貿(mào)易的一個新時代。

詞匯

Just as pandemics have a way of demarcating historical eras, they can also pinpoint shifts in the fortunes of some places relative to others. 正如流行病有一種劃分歷史時期的方法一樣，它們也可以精確地指出某些地方相對于其他地方的命運的變化。 The Black Death lifted real incomes across Europe. 黑死病提高了整個歐洲的實際收入。But the fortunes of Europeans subsequently diverged, and disease again played a role. 但歐洲人的命運隨后發(fā)生了變化，疾病再次扮演了重要角色。Plague returned to the continent in the 17th century in several deadly waves. 17世紀(jì)，鼠疫在幾次致命的浪潮中又回到了歐洲大陸。 The effects of these outbreaks varied greatly across Europe, argues Guido Alfani, of Bocconi University in Milan. 米蘭博科尼大學(xué)的Guido Alfani認(rèn)為，這些爆發(fā)的影響在歐洲各地差異很大。Though at most a tenth of the population of England and Wales was lost to plague, for example, more than 40% of Italians may have died from the disease over the course of the century. 例如，盡管英格蘭和威爾士至多有十分之一的人口死于鼠疫，但在本世紀(jì)內(nèi)，可能有超過40%的意大利人死于鼠疫。 While Italy’s population stagnated and rates of urbanisation tumbled, north-west Europe continued to benefit from growth and urbanisation despite the pandemic. 在意大利人口停滯不前、城市化率大幅下降的同時，盡管瘟疫的爆發(fā)，西北歐仍繼續(xù)從增長和城市化中受益。The fiscal capacity of Italian states suffered badly, as did the textile industries of northern Italy, and northern and southern Europe embarked on quite different economic trajectories. 意大利各州的財政能力嚴(yán)重受損，意大利北部的紡織業(yè)也是如此，北歐和南歐走上了截然不同的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展道路。

詞匯

Demarcate/劃分，界定

Stagnate/停滯；淤塞；變蕭條

Disease is not destiny

?

In the battle against covid-19, countries’ fates are in their own hands to a far greater degree than in the pre-industrial past. 在與covid-19的斗爭中，各國的命運掌握在自己手中的程度，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了工業(yè)化前的過去。 Governments know much more about how epidemics can be managed. 各國政府對如何控制流行病了解得更多。 Different experiences with the disease are as much an indicator of underlying state capacity as a cause of future economic divergence. 與這種疾病有關(guān)的不同經(jīng)歷既是潛在國家能力的一個指標(biāo)，也是未來經(jīng)濟分化的一個原因。Still, history reveals how pandemics nudge societies listing in one direction or another in a decisive and consequential direction. 盡管如此，歷史揭示了瘟疫如何推動社會朝著一個或另一個方向，朝著一個決定性和結(jié)果性的方向發(fā)展。We cannot know what long-run effects covid-19 may have, but we can feel reasonably sure there will be some.我們無法知道covid-19可能會產(chǎn)生什么長期影響，但我們可以合理地肯定會有一些影響。