大家好，歡迎來到Grey Eminence第19期開發(fā)日記！

Hello and welcome to the 19th development diary of Grey Eminence!

今天，我們將繼續(xù)介紹針對貿(mào)易的系列開發(fā)日志。 在上一期日志中，我們對貿(mào)易系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)（市場和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施）進(jìn)行了籠統(tǒng)的概述 - 現(xiàn)在，我們將探討系統(tǒng)中兩個最重要的流程，定價和交易。

Today, we're continuing the series of dev diaries dedicated to?trade. In the previous edition, we gave a high-level overview of the structure of the trade system (markets and infrastructure) - now, we'll explore two of the most important processes within the system,?pricing?and?transactions.

發(fā)布時間：2023年4月1日18:09，原標(biāo)題：Dev Diary #19: Trade Pt. 2

副翻譯者：Trihex

定價

Pricing

在單一市場內(nèi)的任何時間，每種商品都有特定的價格————由該市場前一個月的迭代決定（因此定價與物流一樣每月更新）。 此定價影響該市場內(nèi)所有經(jīng)濟(jì)參與者在下一次迭代中的行為————而這些行為反過來又會影響下次迭代產(chǎn)生的價格。

At any time within a single market, each good has a particular price - determined by the previous monthly iteration of that market (so pricing updates monthly, same as logistics). This price drives the behavior of all economic actors within that market for the next iteration - and that behavior in turn impacts the price for the iteration after that.

那么，一種商品的價格究竟是如何計算的呢？ 我們之前提到過，價格主要是由供給和需求決定的，也就是每個市場中的生產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量。給定市場生產(chǎn)的商品相對于消費(fèi)量越多，其價格就會越低（反之亦然），這聽起來很簡單，事實(shí)也確實(shí)如此。

So, how exactly is the price of a good calculated? We mentioned before that it's primarily driven by?supply?and?demand, represented by production and consumption respectively in each market. The more a given market produces a good compared to consuming it, the lower its price will be (and vice versa), which sounds pretty straightforward and it is.

然而，由于市場相互連接并形成更長的長途貿(mào)易路線（這種情況在游戲時間線的前半段，在鐵路解鎖跨省市場之前尤其突出），定價公式還考慮了進(jìn)口和出口。 這有助于我們解決將商品來源與可能存在的與多個市場連接的遙遠(yuǎn)節(jié)點(diǎn)聯(lián)系起來的問題：如果不考慮進(jìn)出口，中間市場將無法讓商品沿貿(mào)易路線充分流動，除非先囤積大量倉儲。

However, since markets are interconnected and form larger long-distance trade routes (especially in the first half of the game, prior to railroads unlocking multi-province markets), the pricing formula also considers?imports?and?exports. This helps us solve the problem of linking a source of goods to a distant sink that might be multiple market connections away: without considering imports and exports, intermediary markets wouldn't be able to adequately move goods along the chain without first building up massive stockpiles.

定價公式的確切參數(shù)仍可能發(fā)生變化，但其核心本質(zhì)上是基本價格（基本價格取決于其供應(yīng)鏈的復(fù)雜性，對每件商品都是靜態(tài)的）乘以生產(chǎn)量+進(jìn)口量與消費(fèi)量+出口量之間的差異比率 . 例如（使用的變量），如果一種商品的基本價格為1，但其消費(fèi)量+出口量是生產(chǎn)量+進(jìn)口量的5 倍，則該市場的最終價格將為 5。

The exact parameters of the pricing formula are still subject to change, but at its core it's essentially the?base price?(which is static per good depending on its supply chain complexity) multiplied by a ratio of the difference between production+imports and consumption+exports. As an example (with non-final variables), if a good has a base price of 1, but its consumption+exports outpaces production+imports by a factor of 5, the final price in that market will be 5.

我們在定價機(jī)制中添加了一些平衡，以使其對重大波動和沖擊更具彈性：對于任何給定的迭代，新價格被限制在舊價格的 +/-50% 以內(nèi)。 當(dāng)然，這不會阻止由于真正的短缺而導(dǎo)致的價格飆升，但確實(shí)讓市場有足夠的余地來消除臨時問題造成的輕微貿(mào)易中斷，例如禁運(yùn)導(dǎo)致的貿(mào)易路線重建。

There are a couple of balancing mechanisms we've added to the pricing mechanism to make it more resilient to major fluctuations and shocks: for any given iteration, the new price is clamped to be within +/-50% of the old one. Of course, this won't prevent price spikes due to genuine shortages, but it does provide just enough leeway to smooth out minor disruptions caused by temporary issues such as re-routing of goods flow due to embargoes.

交易

Transactions

從根本上說，定價系統(tǒng)的存在是為了實(shí)現(xiàn)交易——在給定市場的商人與其供應(yīng)方/需求方之間，或在兩個相連市場的商人之間。 這些交易使商品移動并推動游戲的整個經(jīng)濟(jì)過程，因此它們是正確模擬的關(guān)鍵過程。 請注意，我們已經(jīng)對交易系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了多次迭代——上述機(jī)制可能不是最終成品——但我們相信我們已經(jīng)得到了一個總體上非常令人滿意的解決方案。

Fundamentally, the pricing system exists to enable transactions - between the merchants of a given market and their suppliers/customers, or between the merchants of two connected markets. These transactions move goods around and facilitate the entire economic process of the game, so they're an important process to get right. Note that we've gone through multiple iterations of the transaction system - and the one described above might not be the final one - but we're confident that we've arrived at a pretty satisfactory solution overall.

讓我們從本地交易開始——發(fā)生在市場內(nèi)商人與供應(yīng)商或需求方之間的交易。 正如我們之前確認(rèn)的那樣，每個市場都有自己的每種商品倉儲。 該倉儲由該特定市場的商人擁有（在多省市場的情況下，倉儲被視為由市場組成省份的所有商人共同擁有）。 每當(dāng)建筑生產(chǎn)商品時，它都會立即將這些商品出售給當(dāng)?shù)厥袌龅膫}儲。 同樣，每當(dāng)人口（或建筑、角色）消費(fèi)商品時，它都會從當(dāng)?shù)厥袌龅膫}儲中購買商品。

Let's start by covering?local transactions?- those that occur within a market between its merchants and either suppliers or customers. As we confirmed previously, each market has its own stockpile for each good. This stockpile is owned by the merchants of that particular market (in the case of multi-province markets, the stockpile is considered to be owned jointly by all merchants in the market's constituent provinces). Whenever a building produces goods, it immediately sells those goods to its local market's stockpile. Similarly, whenever a population (or building, or character) consumes goods, it buys them from its local market's stockpile.

因此，本地交易總是通過商人發(fā)生，他們被設(shè)計為永久中間人。 商人無處不在，總是進(jìn)行本地交易————他們總是以當(dāng)前市場價格從本地生產(chǎn)商/消費(fèi)者那里購買/銷售商品。 作為對他們無法自主決定交易的補(bǔ)償，我們對所有本地交易的價格進(jìn)行了輕微的加價，以支持商人。 確保他們始終有一個小的基準(zhǔn)利潤水平，從而確保當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)（特別是自給經(jīng)濟(jì)，在 1356 年占主導(dǎo)地位）能夠平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。 雖然加價目前是固定的（一如既往，具體數(shù)值可能會發(fā)生變化），但我們計劃將其與一個國家經(jīng)濟(jì)法聯(lián)系起來，但這是另一個話題了。

Thus, local transactions always occur via the merchants, who serve as?permanent middlemen?by design. Due to their omnipresence, merchants cannot refuse local transactions - they'll always buy/sell from/to local producers/consumers at the current market price. As compensation for their inability to consent, we've added a slight?markup?to the price of all local transactions in favor of the merchants. This ensures that they'll always have a small baseline level of profit, which ensures that local economies (particularly subsistence ones, which predominate in 1356) can run smoothly. While the markup is currently fixed (and, as usual, is subject to change), we're planning on linking it to one of a country's economic laws, but that's a topic for another time.

現(xiàn)在我們將繼續(xù)討論發(fā)生在兩個相連市場之間的外部交易。在外部交易中我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)商人有比本地交易時更多的自主權(quán)--事實(shí)上，外部交易總是商人自愿的，總是由利潤驅(qū)動的。在貿(mào)易系統(tǒng)的每次迭代中，每個市場都會遍歷相連接的市場，尋找有利可圖的訂單（綜合考慮運(yùn)輸成本、關(guān)稅等因素）。與我們在消費(fèi)/生產(chǎn)中使用的結(jié)算方法類似，一旦所有這些進(jìn)出口訂單被匯總，所有訂單將被完全履行（如果倉儲允許）或按其實(shí)際規(guī)模部分成交（如果倉儲不足）。最重要的是，商人支付了所有外部交易的初始成本--并因此也承擔(dān)了其所有的倉儲商品在未來的貿(mào)易系統(tǒng)迭代中價值降低的風(fēng)險。

Now we'll continue on to?external transactions, which occur between two connected markets. Here we’ll find significantly more consent than in local transactions - in fact, external transactions are always voluntary and are always driven by profit. During each iteration of the trade system, each market scans connected markets looking for profitable import trades (accounting for transport costs, tariffs and so on). Similarly to the partial fulfillment we utilize in consumption/production, once all such import requests are aggregated, they're fulfilled entirely (if stockpiles permit) or partially in proportion to their size (if stockpiles are insufficient). Crucially, it is the importer who pays all initial costs - and thus takes on the risk of his stockpile being less valuable in future iterations of the trade system.

這種相對簡單（并且純粹基于本地/鄰地信息）的行為允許跨越數(shù)十個市場的長途貿(mào)易路線有機(jī)地出現(xiàn)。 在此過程中的每一步，當(dāng)?shù)厣倘硕家垣@利的方式進(jìn)口商品，而根本不知道周圍環(huán)境之外的任何信息。 當(dāng)然，這確實(shí)意味著供應(yīng)/需求的變化需要時間才能在整個貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)中傳播，而重新建立路線需要市場狀況在整個網(wǎng)絡(luò)中徑向傳播（而不是一條路線終止之后所有商人離奇地立即找到下一條最佳路線），然而，考慮到其輸入數(shù)據(jù)，該系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果之逼真程度讓人驚訝。

This relatively simple (and purely local/neighbor-aware) behavior allows for the organic emergence of?long-distance trade routes?spanning dozens of markets. At each step along the way, local merchants import goods at a profit, without ever being aware of any information beyond their immediate surroundings. Of course, this does mean that changes in supply/demand take time to propagate across the network and re-routes require a radial propagation across all connections (rather than magically knowing the next-best optimal path after the one that just closed), but nevertheless the system produces surprisingly realistic outcomes considering its input data.

總結(jié)

Conclusion

本期日志到此為止！ 我們正在繼續(xù)努力準(zhǔn)備封閉Alpha測試，但由于我們的資金有限，我們正在放慢速度。 考慮到當(dāng)前的開發(fā)速度，我們認(rèn)為可以肯定游戲在2023年不可能發(fā)布————盡管我們?nèi)匀粯酚^地認(rèn)為，隨著時間的推移，我們的社區(qū)將發(fā)展到無需外部融資即可合理完成游戲的程度。 此外，我們也再次暫時停止發(fā)布新的開發(fā)日志————我們的首要任務(wù)是封閉Alpha測試，我們需要將100%的資源集中于此。

That's all this time around! We're continuing to work on getting the closed alpha ready, but due to our limited funding we're doing so at a reduced pace. Considering the current speed of development, we feel that it's safe to rule out a 2023 release for the game - though we remain optimistic that with time our community will grow to the point where we can reasonably finish the game without external financing. In addition, we're also once again temporarily suspending the release of new dev diaries - our top priority is the closed alpha and we need to concentrate 100% of our resources on it.

感謝您的閱讀，感謝您在這個充滿挑戰(zhàn)的時期給予的堅(jiān)定支持！ 一如既往，我們很樂意回答任何問題并在我們的Discord中聊天————您還應(yīng)該確保加入我們的Subreddit，并在YouTube、Facebook 和 Twitter上關(guān)注我們。

Thank you for reading and for your unwavering support through these challenging times! As always, we'll be happy to answer any questions and to chat in our Discord - and you should also make sure to join our Subreddit, and to follow us on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter.

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