Apple has started the new year by disappointing investors with its first profit warning in 17 years. The company said that poor sales of its latest range of iPhones has helped to weaken its first financial quarter (September to December 2018). Apple now expects revenues of US$84 billion (￡66 billion) with a gross profit margin of 38%, having initially expected between US$89 billion and US$93 billion. In the same quarter last year, Apple brought in US$88.3 billion on a gross margin of 42%.

蘋果公司以令投資者失望的方式開始了新的一年，它發(fā)出了17年來的第一次盈利預警。該公司表示，其最新系列iPhone銷量不佳，這有助于削弱其第一個財政季度（2018年9月至12月）。蘋果目前預計營收為840億美元(660億英鎊)，毛利率為38%，最初預計為890億美元至930億美元。去年同一季度，蘋果公司實現(xiàn)了883億美元的收入，毛利率為42%。

This revision caused the company’s stock to drop 10% to its lowest level in 21 months. It is time to find culprits, and I will not be surprised to see headlines like, “Tim Cook is not up to the Job(s)” or: “Seven years after Jobs’ death, Apple is starting to rot.” We mustn’t believe them, however.

這一調整導致該公司股價下跌10%，降至21個月來的最低水平。是時候找罪魁禍首了，看到這樣的頭條新聞我也不會感到驚訝，“蒂姆·庫克不能勝任工作”或“喬布斯去世七年后，蘋果開始腐爛?！比欢?，我們不能相信這些新聞報道。

In other words, if Apple’s profit margin is 38%, Tim Cook would be able to add or detract 1.5% at most. The same is true in reverse of Steve Jobs’ achievements during his two periods at the helm (1976-85 and 1997-2011). We can’t attribute Apple’s once skyrocketing stock to his tenure because we don’t know what the alternative best-case scenario would have been.

換句話說，如果蘋果的利潤率是38%，蒂姆·庫克最多只能增加或減少1.5%。史蒂夫·喬布斯在他的兩個執(zhí)掌期間(1976-85年和1997-2011年)所取得的成就也是如此。我們不能把蘋果一度飆升的股票歸因于他的任期，因為我們不知道其他可以替代的最佳方案會是什么。

In my view, Apple’s problems are primarily caused by external events. Cook explains in his recent letter that, with the exception of the services business – which includes the App Store and iTunes and accounted for 14% of revenues in financial 2018 – all the other Apple businesses will be “constrained”. This means Macs, iPads, iWatches but most importantly iPhones, which accounted for 62.7% of total Apple revenues in 2018, compared to 63.4% in 2016.

在我看來，蘋果的問題主要是由外部事件引起的。庫克在他最近的信中解釋說，除了服務業(yè)務-（包括AppStore和iTunes，占2018年財政收入的14%）-所有其他蘋果公司的業(yè)務都將受到“限制”。這意味著Mac、iPad、iWatches，但最重要的是iPhone（2018年占蘋果總收入的62.7%，而2016年為63.4%）

What is causing this constraint? The increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi – but also from Google, LG and Samsung – has eroded the once dominant position of Apple in the smartphone market. Competition has been particularly damaging in emerging markets, which Cook is blaming on a strong dollar and weaker macroeconomic conditions – as opposed to any faulty Apple strategy in this part of the world.

什么導致了這種限制？來自華為和小米等中國制造商以及谷歌、LG和三星的競爭日益激烈，削弱了蘋果在智能手機市場曾經(jīng)的主導地位。新興市場的競爭尤其具有破壞性，庫克將此歸咎于美元走強和宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境走弱，而不是蘋果在這一地區(qū)的任何錯誤戰(zhàn)略
。
With respect to markets where the iPhone has enjoyed a more dominant position – especially the US – Apple recognises that customers don’t replace their devices as often as they used to. A recent report by BayStreet Research estimated that, while the average user upgraded her iPhone every 24 months as recently as 2015, by the last quarter of 2018 this holding period had jumped to 36 months.

在iPhone占據(jù)主導地位的市場-尤其是美國-蘋果認識到，消費者不會像過去那樣經(jīng)常更換自己的設備。BayStreet Research最近發(fā)布的一份報告估計，2015年消費者平均每24個月就升級一次iPhone，但到2018年最后一個季度，這一持有期已躍升至36個月。

This is due to fewer carrier subsidies, according to Apple – but also, in my opinion, to the fact that the new devices do not have much more to offer. I use an iPhone 7, which I bought in 2016, and I am honestly not inclined to spend US$1,000 for I-am-not-sure-which new features on a newer version. I already get much more from my current device than I need.

據(jù)蘋果公司稱，這是由于運營商補貼減少所致，但是，在我看來，新的設備并沒有提供更多的東西。我使用的是我在2016年購買的iPhone 7，老實說，我不想花1000美元買新版本的新功能。我現(xiàn)在的設備已經(jīng)比我需要的功能多了。

Apple’s problem

蘋果的問題

It worries me that Apple is a single-product company. Among its other revenues, iPad sales are one-tenth of iPhone sales eight years after tablets were launched. By comparison, Samsung mobile phone sales only represent 36.6% of its total revenues. Wearables by Apple are not taking off either – and the company is not monetising its platform business by selling customer data to the same extent as digital rivals such as Google, Amazon and Facebook.

蘋果是一家單一產(chǎn)品的公司，這讓我擔心。在其他收入中，iPad的銷量是iPhone銷量的十分之一，盡管平板電腦已經(jīng)推出了8年。相比之下，三星手機的銷售額僅占其總收入的36.6%。蘋果的可穿戴設備也沒有起色——而且該公司也沒有像谷歌、亞馬遜和Facebook這樣的數(shù)字競爭對手那樣通過******來實現(xiàn)平臺業(yè)務的貨幣化。

Author
Arturo Bris
Professor of Finance, IMD Business School

作者
Arturo Bris
瑞士洛桑管理學院金融學教授

評論翻譯

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David Warburton-Burley
logged in via Facebook
My understanding of Apple’s problem is that it sought to offset reduced sales by increasing unit cost. Presumably they banked on brand loyalty and FOMO being sufficient to carry them into the future but were wrong.

我對蘋果問題的理解是，它試圖通過增加單位價格來抵消銷量下降的影響。據(jù)推測，他們依靠的是品牌忠誠度和FOMO足以讓他們進入未來，但這是錯誤的。

David Morley
One of the issues for Apple is that it’s brand is intimately tied to the idea of innovation, individuality and creativity. A non innovating Apple just wouldn’t be Apple.

蘋果的一個問題是，它的品牌與創(chuàng)新、個性和創(chuàng)造力的理念緊密相連。一個不創(chuàng)新的蘋果將不再是蘋果。

Charlie Chan
logged in via Google
Steve jobs looked at market segments and identified where opportunities existed. It appears cook is just using current product ranges and running them to their max.

史蒂夫·喬布斯觀察了市場細分市場，并找出了存在機會的地方。庫克只是在使用目前的產(chǎn)品系列，并將其運行到最大限度。