When I think about the rise of AI,?I'm reminded by the rise of literacy.?A few hundred years ago,?many people in society thought?that maybe not everyone needed to be able to read and write.?Back then, many people were tending fields or herding sheep,?so maybe there was less need for written communication.?And all that was needed?was for the high priests and priestesses and monks?to be able to read the Holy Book,?and the rest of us could just go to the temple or church?or the holy building?and sit and listen to the high priest and priestesses read to us.?Fortunately, it was since figured out that we can build a much richer society?if lots of people can read and write.

當(dāng)我想到 AI （人工智能）的崛起之時(shí)，?我聯(lián)想了讀寫能力的崛起。?幾百年前，?社會(huì)上的很多人覺得?也許不是每個(gè)人都得會(huì)讀會(huì)寫。?那時(shí)候， 很多人從事農(nóng)業(yè)或者牧羊，?對書面交流的需求沒有那么多。?只有主教和僧侶?需要讀得懂《圣經(jīng)》和最高經(jīng)典，?其他人只要去寺廟、教堂?或者圣所?坐等主教讀給我們聽就行了。?幸運(yùn)的是，人們后來發(fā)現(xiàn) 如果很多人能讀能寫，?我們的社會(huì)會(huì)富裕得多。

Today, AI is in the hands of the high priests and priestesses.?These are the highly skilled AI engineers,?many of whom work in the big tech companies.?And most people have access only to the AI that they build for them.?I think that we can build a much richer society?if we can enable everyone to help to write the future.

如今，AI 被掌握在 “主教”手中。?這些主教就是 那些技術(shù)高超的 AI 工程師，?其中很多就職于科技巨頭公司。?很多人只能接觸到 為他們設(shè)計(jì)的 AI。?我認(rèn)為，如果我們能讓 每個(gè)人參與譜寫未來，?我們就能創(chuàng)造一個(gè)更富裕的社會(huì)。

But why is AI largely concentrated in the big tech companies??Because many of these AI projects have been expensive to build.?They may require dozens of highly skilled engineers,?and they may cost millions or tens of millions of dollars?to build an AI system.?And the large tech companies,?particularly the ones with hundreds of millions?or even billions of users,?have been better than anyone else at making these investments pay off?because, for them, a one-size-fits-all AI system,?such as one that improves web search?or that recommends better products for online shopping,?can be applied to [these] very large numbers of users?to generate a massive amount of revenue.?But this recipe for AI does not work?once you go outside the tech and internet sectors to other places?where, for the most part,?there are hardly any projects that apply to 100 million people?or that generate comparable economics.

但是為什么大部分 AI 技術(shù) 都集中在科技巨頭手中呢？?因?yàn)殚_發(fā)這些 AI 項(xiàng)目太貴了。?這些項(xiàng)目需要一大群 技術(shù)高超的工程師，?要開發(fā)一個(gè) AI 系統(tǒng) 可能要花上幾百萬幾千萬美元。?這些大型科技公司，?尤其是手握幾億 幾十億用戶的公司，?最擅長套回這些投入，?因?yàn)閷τ谒鼈儊碚f， 一個(gè)普適的 AI 系統(tǒng)，?比如優(yōu)化搜索引擎?或者為網(wǎng)購?fù)扑]更佳商品的系統(tǒng)，?可以直接適用于龐大的用戶群體，?產(chǎn)生巨額收益。?但是一旦你走出科技互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)，?去向別的領(lǐng)域， 這個(gè) AI 的秘方可能就不會(huì)奏效，?因?yàn)樵诖蠖鄶?shù)情況下，?幾乎沒有一個(gè)項(xiàng)目 可以覆蓋一億人，?或產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)?shù)慕?jīng)濟(jì)效益。

Let me illustrate an example.?Many weekends, I drive a few minutes from my house to a local pizza store?to buy a slice of Hawaiian pizza?from the gentleman that owns this pizza store.?And his pizza is great,?but he always has a lot of cold pizzas sitting around,?and every weekend some different flavor of pizza is out of stock.?But when I watch him operate his store,?I get excited,?because by selling pizza,?he is generating data.?And this is data that he can take advantage of?if he had access to AI.

我來舉一個(gè)例子。?我總會(huì)在周末從家里開車去 當(dāng)?shù)匾患遗_店?向店主買一塊夏威夷披薩。?他的披薩很不錯(cuò)，?但是總是有一大堆披薩滯銷到冷掉，?每個(gè)周末都會(huì) 有幾個(gè)口味的披薩缺貨。?但是當(dāng)我看著他 運(yùn)營他的小店的時(shí)候，?我激動(dòng)萬分，?因?yàn)樵谒u披薩的過程中，?也產(chǎn)生了數(shù)據(jù)。?如果他能用上 AI， 就可以從這些數(shù)據(jù)中獲益。

AI systems are good at spotting patterns when given access to the right data,?and perhaps an AI system could spot if Mediterranean pizzas sell really well?on a Friday night,?maybe it could suggest to him to make more of it on a Friday afternoon.?Now you might say to me, "Hey, Andrew, this is a small pizza store.?What's the big deal?"?And I say, to the gentleman that owns this pizza store,?something that could help him improve his revenues?by a few thousand dollars a year, that will be a huge deal to him.

如果輸入了合適的數(shù)據(jù)， AI 系統(tǒng)就會(huì)很善于識(shí)別規(guī)律，?也許能有一個(gè) AI 系統(tǒng)識(shí)別出 周五晚上地中海披薩?賣得特別好，?也許這就能告訴他 周五下午多做一點(diǎn)地中海披薩。?你有可能想這么對我說： “嘿，安德魯（Andrew），?這只是個(gè)小披薩店。?有什么了不起的？”?而我想說，對于店主來說，?如果有什么可以幫他每年?多賺幾千美元， 那就很了不起了。

I know that there is a lot of hype about AI's need for massive data sets,?and having more data does help.?But contrary to the hype,?AI can often work just fine?even on modest amounts of data,?such as the data generated by a single pizza store.?So the real problem is not?that there isn’t enough data from the pizza store.?The real problem is that the small pizza store?could never serve enough customers?to justify the cost of hiring an AI team.?I know that in the United States?there are about half a million independent restaurants.?And collectively, these restaurants do serve tens of millions of customers.?But every restaurant is different with a different menu,?different customers, different ways of recording sales?that no one-size-fits-all AI would work for all of them.

我知道，人們普遍認(rèn)為 AI 需要大量數(shù)據(jù)集，?有了更多數(shù)據(jù)確實(shí)會(huì)有幫助。?但是如果沒有大量數(shù)據(jù)，?AI 通常也可以在?只有少量數(shù)據(jù)的情況下正常運(yùn)作，?比如一家披薩店產(chǎn)生的數(shù)據(jù)。?真正的問題不是?披薩店沒有足夠的數(shù)據(jù)。?真正的問題是 這小小的披薩店?沒有足夠的客源?平衡雇傭一組 AI 人員的支出。?我知道美國?有大約 50 萬家獨(dú)立餐廳。?這些餐廳總計(jì)服務(wù)了幾億顧客。?但是每一家餐廳都是不同的， 有著不同的菜單，?不同的顧客， 不同的記賬方式，?沒有一個(gè)通用的 AI 系統(tǒng) 可以適用于全部的餐廳。

What would it be like if we could enable small businesses?and especially local businesses to use AI??Let's take a look at what it might look like?at a company that makes and sells T-shirts.?I would love if an accountant working for the T-shirt company?can use AI for demand forecasting.?Say, figure out what funny memes to prints on T-shirts?that would drive sales,?by looking at what's trending on social media.?Or for product placement,?why can’t a front-of-store manager take pictures of what the store looks like?and show it to an AI?and have an AI recommend where to place products to improve sales??Supply chain.?Can an AI recommend to a buyer whether or not they should pay 20 dollars?per yard for a piece of fabric now,?or if they should keep looking?because they might be able to find it cheaper elsewhere??Or quality control.?A quality inspector should be able to use AI?to automatically scan pictures of the fabric they use to make T-shirts?to check if there are any tears or discolorations in the cloth.

如果我們可以讓小型企業(yè)?尤其是本土企業(yè)都能用上 AI， 會(huì)怎么樣呢？?我們來看看 AI 應(yīng)用于一家?制造、銷售 T 恤的公司 會(huì)是什么樣的情形。?如果這家 T 恤公司的會(huì)計(jì)?可以用 AI 預(yù)測需求， 那就會(huì)很不錯(cuò)。?比如，通過研究 社交媒體上的潮流，?鎖定一些印在 T 恤上增加銷量的?好玩表情包。?就上架策略而言，?門店經(jīng)理可以拍下店鋪情況，?提交給 AI，?讓 AI 推薦商品的擺放位置， 提高銷量。?供應(yīng)鏈。?AI 是不是可以推薦 買家是否應(yīng)該?以 20 美元一碼的 價(jià)格購入一塊布料，?還是應(yīng)該貨比三家，?因?yàn)閯e家的價(jià)格 有可能會(huì)更低廉呢？?質(zhì)量管理。?一名質(zhì)檢員 應(yīng)該能夠使用 AI?自動(dòng)掃描 T 恤的面料照片，?檢查布料是否有裂縫或褪色。

Today, large tech companies routinely use AI to solve problems like these?and to great effect.?But a typical T-shirt company or a typical auto mechanic?or retailer or school or local farm?will be using AI for exactly zero of these applications today.?Every T-shirt maker is sufficiently different from every other T-shirt maker?that there is no one-size-fits-all AI that will work for all of them.?And in fact, once you go outside the internet and tech sectors?in other industries, even large companies?such as the pharmaceutical companies,?the car makers, the hospitals,?also struggle with this.

如今，AI 已經(jīng)成為大型科技公司 處理此類問題的常規(guī)手段，?成果顯著。?但是現(xiàn)在沒有一家普通的 T 恤公司、普通的汽修店、?零售店、學(xué)校、本地農(nóng)場?會(huì)用 AI 運(yùn)營。?每一家 T 恤制造商的情況 都是截然不同的，?沒有一個(gè)通用的 AI 系統(tǒng) 可以適用于全部商家。?其實(shí)，如果不看互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和科技領(lǐng)域，?去看一些別的領(lǐng)域， 就算是一些大公司，?比如醫(yī)藥公司、?汽車制造商、醫(yī)院，?都會(huì)飽受這個(gè)問題的困擾。

This is the long-tail problem of AI.?If you were to take all current and potential AI projects?and sort them in decreasing order of value and plot them,?you get a graph that looks like this.?Maybe the single most valuable AI system?is something that decides what ads to show people on the internet.?Maybe the second most valuable is a web search engine,?maybe the third most valuable is an online shopping product recommendation system.?But when you go to the right of this curve,?you then get projects like T-shirt product placement?or T-shirt demand forecasting or pizzeria demand forecasting.?And each of these is a unique project that needs to be custom-built.?Even T-shirt demand forecasting,?if it depends on trending memes on social media,?is a very different project than pizzeria demand forecasting,?if that depends on the pizzeria sales data.?So today there are millions of projects?sitting on the tail of this distribution that no one is working on,?but whose aggregate value is massive.

這就是 AI 的長尾效應(yīng)。?你可以把所有 已有和潛在的 AI 項(xiàng)目?以價(jià)值降序排列后作圖，?就會(huì)得到這樣一張圖。?也許最有價(jià)值的 AI 系統(tǒng)?決定了在網(wǎng)上 給人們展示什么廣告。?也許第二有價(jià)值的系統(tǒng) 是網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索引擎，?第三有價(jià)值的系統(tǒng)是 網(wǎng)購商品推薦系統(tǒng)。?但是如果你看向曲線的右側(cè)，?就會(huì)看到像 T 恤商品陳列、?T 恤需求預(yù)測和披薩店需求預(yù)測 這樣的項(xiàng)目。?每一個(gè)這樣的項(xiàng)目 都需要定制。?就算是 T 恤需求預(yù)測，?如果它由社交媒體上的 流行表情包決定，?也與披薩店需求預(yù)測 是兩種涇渭分明的項(xiàng)目，?披薩店的預(yù)測由銷售數(shù)據(jù)決定。?如今成千上萬的項(xiàng)目?就處于這個(gè)無人問津的分布長尾上，?但是它們的合計(jì)價(jià)值是不可小覷的。

So how can we enable small businesses and individuals?to build AI systems that matter to them??For most of the last few decades,?if you wanted to build an AI system, this is what you have to do.?You have to write pages and pages of code.?And while I would love for everyone to learn to code,?and in fact, online education and also offline education?are helping more people than ever learn to code,?unfortunately, not everyone has the time to do this.?But there is an emerging new way?to build AI systems that will let more people participate.?Just as pen and paper,?which are a vastly superior technology to stone tablet and chisel,?were instrumental to widespread literacy,?there are emerging new AI development platforms?that shift the focus from asking you to write lots of code?to asking you to focus on providing data.?And this turns out to be much easier for a lot of people to do.

我們該如何讓小型企業(yè)和個(gè)人?有能力搭建對他們 十分重要的 AI 系統(tǒng)呢？?在過去的幾十年中，?如果你想搭建一個(gè) AI 系統(tǒng)， 你需要做這些事。?你需要寫長篇累牘的代碼。?雖然我覺得人人都該學(xué)寫代碼，?線上和線下教育也確實(shí)?讓學(xué)習(xí)編程的人數(shù)達(dá)到了高峰，?不幸的是， 不是人人都有時(shí)間學(xué)習(xí)編程。?但是，我們現(xiàn)在 有了一個(gè)全新的方式，?創(chuàng)造 AI 系統(tǒng)， 讓更多人參與編程。?就像紙筆?是比石板和鑿子 先進(jìn)得多的科技，?在普及讀寫的過程中功不可沒，?現(xiàn)在也有一些 新的 AI 開發(fā)平臺(tái)?不再讓你寫一大堆代碼，?而是只讓你提供數(shù)據(jù)。?這對大規(guī)模人群來說更容易實(shí)現(xiàn)。

Today, there are multiple companies working on platforms like these.?Let me illustrate a few of the concepts using one that my team has been building.?Take the example of an inspector?wanting AI to help detect defects in fabric.?An inspector can take pictures of the fabric?and upload it to a platform like this,?and they can go in to show the AI what tears in the fabric look like?by drawing rectangles.?And they can also go in to show the AI?what discoloration on the fabric looks like?by drawing rectangles.?So these pictures,?together with the green and pink rectangles?that the inspector's drawn,?are data created by the inspector?to explain to AI how to find tears and discoloration.?After the AI examines this data,?we may find that it has seen enough pictures of tears,?but not yet enough pictures of discolorations.?This is akin to if a junior inspector had learned to reliably spot tears,?but still needs to further hone their judgment about discolorations.?So the inspector can go back and take more pictures of discolorations?to show to the AI,?to help it deepen this understanding.?By adjusting the data you give to the AI,?you can help the AI get smarter.?So an inspector using an accessible platform like this?can, in a few hours to a few days,?and with purchasing a suitable camera set up,?be able to build a custom AI system to detect defects,?tears and discolorations in all the fabric?being used to make T-shirts throughout the factory.

現(xiàn)在有很多公司在做這樣的平臺(tái)。?我的團(tuán)隊(duì)也在做這類平臺(tái)， 我來給大家介紹其中一個(gè)。?舉個(gè)例子，檢測員?需要 AI 的幫助 檢測布料瑕疵。?檢測員可以拍下布料的照片，?上傳到這樣的平臺(tái)上，?然后他們可以用矩形做標(biāo)記，?告訴 AI 布料裂縫長什么樣。?他們也可以通過標(biāo)記矩形，?告訴 AI 布料褪色長什么樣。?這些圖片?與檢測員標(biāo)記的綠色和粉色矩形框?就是檢測員創(chuàng)建的數(shù)據(jù)，?告訴 AI 如何檢測裂縫和褪色。?AI 檢查了數(shù)據(jù)之后，?我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)， AI 已經(jīng)讀取了足夠的裂縫圖片，?但是沒有足夠的褪色圖片。?這就類似于一個(gè)初級檢測員 已經(jīng)學(xué)會(huì)了如何準(zhǔn)確地識(shí)別裂縫，?但是還得再磨練一下對褪色的判斷。?這個(gè)檢測員可以回去 再拍幾張褪色的照片，?提交給 AI，?加深它對褪色的理解。?通過調(diào)整輸入 AI 的數(shù)據(jù)，?你可以讓 AI 變得更聰明。?檢測員使用這樣容易操作的平臺(tái)，?在幾小時(shí)至幾天內(nèi)，?再采購一套合適的攝影設(shè)備，?就能在搭建起一個(gè) 定制化 AI 系統(tǒng)，?檢測工廠中所有 T 恤面料上的 瑕疵、裂縫和褪色情況。

And once again, you may say,?"Hey, Andrew, this is one factory.?Why is this a big deal?"

你可能又想說：?“嘿，安德魯，這就是一家工廠，?有什么了不起的？”

And I say to you,?this is a big deal to that inspector whose life this makes easier?and equally, this type of technology can empower a baker to use AI?to check for the quality of the cakes they're making,?or an organic farmer to check the quality of the vegetables,?or a furniture maker to check the quality of the wood they're using.

我想告訴你，?對那個(gè)減負(fù)的檢測員來說， 這很了不起，?同樣，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)可以讓 一名烘焙師使用 AI?檢查手中蛋糕的質(zhì)量，?讓一名有機(jī)農(nóng)場主 檢查蔬菜的質(zhì)量，?讓一個(gè)家具制造商 檢查木材原料的質(zhì)量。

Platforms like these will probably still need a few more years?before they're easy enough to use for every pizzeria owner.?But many of these platforms are coming along,?and some of them are getting to be quite useful?to someone that is tech savvy today,?with just a bit of training.?But what this means is that,?rather than relying on the high priests and priestesses?to write AI systems for everyone else,?we can start to empower every accountant,?every store manager,?every buyer and every quality inspector to build their own AI systems.

這類平臺(tái)也許還需要一些時(shí)間?將操作難易度調(diào)節(jié)至 適用于每一個(gè)披薩店店主。?但是很多平臺(tái)都在進(jìn)步，?有些平臺(tái)只需要少量培訓(xùn)，?就已經(jīng)對如今懂技術(shù)的人來說 非常有幫助了。?這也就意味著，?我們不需要再依賴于主教?為所有人編寫 AI 系統(tǒng)，?我們的每位會(huì)計(jì)、?每位門店經(jīng)理、?每位買家、每位質(zhì)檢員都有能力 搭建自己的 AI 系統(tǒng)。

I hope that the pizzeria owner?and many other small business owners like him?will also take advantage of this technology?because AI is creating tremendous wealth?and will continue to create tremendous wealth.?And it's only by democratizing access to AI?that we can ensure that this wealth is spread far and wide across society.

我希望披薩店店主?和其他像他這樣的小型企業(yè)主?都可以用上這項(xiàng)技術(shù)，?因?yàn)?AI 創(chuàng)造著巨大財(cái)富，?也將在未來持續(xù)創(chuàng)造巨大財(cái)富。?只有讓人人都有機(jī)會(huì)用上 AI，?我們才能將這樣的財(cái)富 播撒到社會(huì)的每個(gè)角落。

Hundreds of years ago.?I think hardly anyone understood the impact?that widespread literacy will have.?Today, I think hardly anyone understands?the impact that democratizing access to AI will have.?Building AI systems has been out of reach for most people,?but that does not have to be the case.?In the coming era for AI,?we’ll empower everyone to build AI systems for themselves,?and I think that will be incredibly exciting future.

幾百年前。?我覺得幾乎沒有人懂得?普及讀寫的重要性。?我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在幾乎沒有人懂得?讓每個(gè)人有機(jī)會(huì) 用上 AI 的重要性。?大多數(shù)人沒有機(jī)會(huì) 搭建 AI 系統(tǒng)，?但是未來不一定會(huì)是如此。?在接下來的 AI 時(shí)代中，?我們會(huì)讓每一個(gè)人有能力 為自己搭建 AI 系統(tǒng)，?我覺得這就是我們 振奮人心的未來。