DEFINE & VALIDATE

In the next section we'll talk about the work that you and your team can do to validate product hypotheses, including customer research, segmentation and lean testing.

在下一節(jié)中，我們將討論你和團隊可以進行的工作，以驗證產品假設，包括客戶研究、細分和精益測試。

Validation is a critical part of the product development process.

驗證是產品開發(fā)過程中至關重要的一部分。

Although it might seem to slow things down, taking some time up front to ensure that you're building the right thing ensures that you don't waste everyone's time.

盡管這可能會使事情變慢，但在前期花費一些時間來確保你正在構建正確的東西，可以確保不浪費大家的時間。

Validation can be down by a relatively small tiger team of individuals.

驗證可以由相對較小的“精英團隊”來完成。

On the other hand, once bigger teams are assigned to a project, it becomes significantly more painful to change course and pivot if you discover that your conpect won't work.

另一方面，一旦較大規(guī)模的團隊被分配到一個項目中，如果發(fā)現你的概念行不通，改變方向和轉向將變得非常困難。

Moreover, building a high quality software product is expensive.

此外，構建高質量的軟件產品是昂貴的。

Properly built products are scalable, they have high reliability and solid test coverage, they are secure, they can be localized, they meet accessibility requirements and so on.

正確構建的產品具有可擴展性，具有高可靠性和全面的測試覆蓋率，具備安全性，可以進行本地化，滿足無障礙要求等等。

All of these steps are costly and potentially entirely unnecessary if the product concepts flawed.

如果產品概念有缺陷，所有這些步驟都是昂貴的，而且有可能完全是不必要的。

LEAN: Desirability, Viability and Possibility

One of the major innovations in product development process in the past decade has been LEAN, a concept popularized by Eric Reese with his book The Lean Startup.

過去十年中產品開發(fā)過程的一項重要創(chuàng)新是“精益開發(fā)”（LEAN），這個概念由埃里克·里斯在他的書《精益創(chuàng)業(yè)》中廣為流傳。

Reese argues that your goal as a product developer is to achieve product market fit which occurs when customers find and understand value in your product at a price is attractive.

里斯認為，作為產品開發(fā)者，你的目標是實現產品與市場的契合，這在當產品價格合適，并且客戶發(fā)現和理解你的產品的價值時實現。

Lean advocates rapid iterations to maximize learning with the goal of minimizing waste and reducing the time needed to achieve product market fit.

精益方法倡導快速迭代，以最大程度地獲取學習，目標是最大程度地減少浪費，并縮短實現產品與市場契合所需的時間。

Reese argues that this model is not just an imperative for startups, large companies can increase the probability of success of innovation projects by adopting LEAN principles.

里斯認為，這個模式不僅適用于初創(chuàng)公司，大公司通過采用精益原則可以增加創(chuàng)新項目成功的可能性。

Product market fit occurs when a product achieves the intersection of three areas: desirability, viability and possibility. ?

當產品在以下三個方面實現交集時，就達到了產品與市場的契合：合意性（Desirability）、可行性（Viability）和可能性（Possibility）。

These are simple pass, fail tests and if any of them fail you need to iterate until it passes or pivot to another opportunity.

這些是簡單的“通過/不通過”測試，如果其中任何一個測試失敗，你需要進行迭代，直到通過或轉向另一個機會。

In order for something to be financially attractive or viable in the market place, you need to first know whether the market is big enough and whether it's growth or decline.

為了讓某個產品在市場中具備財務上的吸引力或可行性，你首先需要知道市場是否足夠大，以及市場的增長或衰退情況。

You should have a directional line on these based on your worked in the planning phase.

你應該在規(guī)劃階段的工作中對這些問題有一個大致的方向。

Then you need to ask whether it's possible to address the market profitably, for that you'll need a forecast models which we'll talk about shortly.

然后你需要問自己是否有可能以盈利的方式開發(fā)市場，為此你需要一個預測模型，我們馬上就會討論這個問題。

Next we need to be sure that the concept is possible technically.

接下來，我們需要確保概念在技術上是可行的。

This is not typically the biggest source of failure in achieving product market fit in software, but we will talk about some options to test this at the end of this section.

在軟件產品的產品與市場契合中，這通常不是最大的失敗原因，但我們將在本節(jié)的最后討論測試這一點的方法。

Finally and most importantly is the desirability from a customer's perspective.

最后，也是最重要的是從客戶的角度來看的合意性。

This is the most likely culprit if there is a missmatch in the product market fit equation and so you'll want to test this area rigorously.

如果產品與市場需求存在不匹配的情況，這很可能是罪魁禍首，因此你應該對這一方面進行嚴格的測試。

Desirability

As the product manager you need to ensure that the problem space is real and that customers have a strong enough need that they would be willing to change their current process and behavior.

作為產品經理，你需要確保問題空間是真實存在的，并且客戶有足夠強烈的需求，以至于他們愿意改變當前的習慣和行為。

Inertia is a powerful thing so your job is to ensure that the problem is acute and that you're building a pill rather than a vitamin.

慣性是一種強大的力量，因此你的任務是確保問題的緊迫性，并且你正在構建的是一種藥片而不是維生素。

Secondly and this is both a product and a marketing question, you want confidence that customers believe that your solution will in fact solve their needs and that is dramatically better than the status quo alternative.

其次，這既是一個產品問題，也是一個市場問題，你希望獲得客戶的信心，確信他們相信你的解決方案確實能夠滿足他們的需求，并且明顯優(yōu)于現有的替代方案。

Testing desirability is challenging, customer services and focus groups are notoriously misleading with customers indicating strong interesting when asked but after launch product sales fail to materializes.

測試合意性是具有挑戰(zhàn)性的，客戶服務和焦點小組在這方面常常具有誤導性，因為當被詢問時，客戶會表示出很強的興趣，但產品上市后銷售卻未能成功。

Many people, might self-included, argues that customer struggle and may in fact unintentionally mislead you when you ask them to describe their desired solutions or their intent to purchases.

很多人，包括我在內，認為客戶在描述他們期望的解決方案或購買意向時可能會有困難，實際上可能會無意中誤導你。

Customer Research

However, with properly constructed customer research, perspective of current customers can effectively articulate their pain points.

然而，通過正確構建的客戶研究，現有客戶的觀點可以有效地表達出他們的痛點。

Sometimes refers to job to be down.

有時也可以指明需要完成的任務。

And if you dig deep by asking why several times, you can identify root causes that represent opportunities for your product.

如果你通過多次追問為什么的方式深入挖掘，你可以確定市場機遇的根本原因。

Qualitative research consisting of interviews and observation during site or field visits is sometimes referred to as customer development.

定性研究，包括在實地或外出訪問期間進行的訪談和觀察，有時被稱為用戶開發(fā)。

In addition to qualitative data you should also look at quantitative of customer data including data mining and analysis and AB testing when you validating your product strategy.

除了定性數據，你還應該查看定量的客戶數據，包括數據挖掘、分析和AB測試，以驗證你的產品策略。

So how do you choose the right customer research methods.

所以，如何選擇正確的用戶研究方法。

Tristan Cromer developed this framework to classify different research methods.

Tristan Cromer提出了一個框架來分類不同的研究方法。

Depending on what you need to learn, you should apply different methods.

根據你需要研究的內容，而采用不同的方法。

First he differentiates between generative and evaluative.

首先，他區(qū)分了生成性研究和評估性研究

With generative questions you are seeking inspiration and direction.

在生成性問題中，你尋求的是靈感和方向。

You don't yet have a strong hypothesis regarding the answer.

你對答案還沒有一個強烈的假設。

Evaluative research seeks to validate or disprove an existing hypothesis.

評估性研究旨在驗證或否定現有的假設。

In this type of research, customers are responding to something that you're already designed or built and are giving feedback.

在這類研究中，客戶對你已經設計或構建的產品或服務進行回應，并提供反饋意見。

Evaluative experiments are often quantitative, meaning that they are conducted with larger samples of customers and can be statistically significant.

評估性實驗通常是定量的，這意味著它們使用更大規(guī)模的客戶樣本進行，并且具有統(tǒng)計性。

The second axis differentiates between whether you are trying to learn about your market or your product what you should build.

第二個軸區(qū)分了你是在嘗試了解市場還是你應該構建什么樣的產品。

So market questions that are generative include "Who is a potential customer for this type of product", or "What needs exist in this customer segments" or "How do i reach this audience".

因此，生成性的市場問題包括“誰是這類產品的潛在客戶”，“這個客戶群體存在哪些需求”或“我如何接觸到這個受眾”。

Evaluative questions for the market could include "Price testing" or "Testing different marketing messages".

評估性的市場問題可能包括“價格測試”或“測試不同的營銷信息”。

Generative product questions include "What is the minimally viable product that will satisfy my customers", "What should we build first" or "What kind of design resonates with my audience".

生成性的產品問題包括“什么是能滿足客戶需求的最小可行產品”，“我們應該先構建什么”或“什么樣的設計能與我的受眾產生共鳴”。

Evaluative product questions include "Are people using this feature", "Why do people like or dislike my product or that of a competitor" and "How do I optimize my marketing in UX design".

評估性的產品問題包括“人們是否在使用這個功能”，“為什么人們喜歡或不喜歡我的產品或競爭對手的產品”，以及“如何在用戶體驗設計中優(yōu)化我的營銷”。

Cromer's model then recommends various research methods for each of these.

Cromer的模型隨后針對每個類別推薦了各種研究方法。

I have included a few methods here but there dozens of possible research tactics beyond usability studies and interviews and surveys.

我在這里列舉了一些方法，但除了可用性研究、訪談和調查之外，還有許多可能的研究策略。

If you'd like to learn more I've included a link in the resources to his vedio on the topic.

如果你想了解更多信息，我已在資源中包含了他在這個主題上的視頻鏈接。

Protoypes

Prototypes are often developed in the validation phase and are an evaluative product research tool.

原型/樣品是一種常用于驗證階段的產品研究工具。

In addition to getting customer feedback they can be used in a number of other ways including internal and external funding pitches, design reviews, internal vision communication and sales marketing.

除了獲取客戶反饋之外，原型還可以在許多其他方面使用，包括內部和外部的資金籌集、設計審查、內部愿景傳達以及銷售營銷等方面。

One note of caution, it's rare that a single prototype can do all these things elegantly.

需要注意的是，很少有單個原型能夠精確地完成所有這些任務。

Make sure that your objective are clear up front so that your team develops for the appropriate use and audience.

確保你的目標清晰明確，這樣你的團隊就能為適當的受眾開發(fā)出好用的產品。

For example, prototypes can be built at varying levels of fidelity.

例如，原型可以以不同的保真度級別進行構建。

Everything from concepts sketches on paper or with intentionally rough looking wireframing tools all the way to polished fully interactive design models for example an HTML 5 software app.

從紙上的概念草圖或故意粗糙的線框工具，一直到精細的、完全互動的設計模型，例如基于HTML5的軟件應用程序，各種不同保真度的原型都可以制作。

You want to minimize effort while still getting the validate learning that you're seeking.

你希望在盡量減少工作量的同時，仍能獲取你所追求的驗證效果。

In fact it's often better to under produce mock-ups when you're still testing concepts and user flows because the graphic design choices such as color and font can often distract attention and become the central focus for feedback rather than the more fundamental issues you'd like to learn about.

事實上，當你仍在測試概念和用戶流程時，制作簡化的模型往往更好，因為圖形設計選擇，如顏色和字體，往往會分散注意力，并成為反饋的中心焦點，而不是你想要了解的那些更基本的問題。

So choose the prototype fidelity that matches with your objective.

因此，選擇與你的目標相匹配的原型保真度。

Segmentation

Next we'll look at two related tools for entering new markets and prioritizing your efforts, market segmentation and personas.

接下來，我們將介紹兩個與進入新市場和優(yōu)先考慮努力的相關工具：市場細分和用戶畫像

One of the key insights that you want to derive from customer research is a prioritized set of target customer segments from which you can develop personas.

從客戶研究中得出的關鍵啟示之一是：目標用戶細分集合的優(yōu)先級排序，從中你可以制定用戶畫像。

Not all companies use segments and personas, and in my opinion these tools are limited help in products that have already reached mass market adoption among tens of millions of customers.

并非所有的公司都使用市場細分和用戶畫像，而且在我看來，對于已經在數千萬客戶中實現了大規(guī)模市場采用的產品來說，這些工具的幫助有限。

But for new products B to B or high consideration B to C products, customer segmentation can be beneficial in a few ways.

但對于新的B2B產品或高度考慮的B2C產品，客戶細分可以在某些方面帶來好處。

When you segment your market, you divide it into groups of customers with similarities and intentionally prioritize certain segments with the understanding that you may lose out on customers outside of those groups.

當你對市場進行細分時，你將其劃分為具有相似性的客戶群體，并有意識地優(yōu)先考慮特定的細分群體，理解到這樣做可能會失去那些不屬于這些群體的客戶。

Even mass market products such as Facebook first started with a much smaller target market of college students in US IVY league schools.

即使是像Facebook這樣的大眾市場產品，最初也是以美國常春藤聯盟學校的大學生為目標市場。

Segmenting allows you to focus your limited resources in design, development and marketing.

細分市場可以讓你將有限的資源集中在設計、開發(fā)和營銷上。

Design can focus on the target segment's most critical user cases and de-prioritize other user cases in terms of their prominence and polish.

設計可以專注于目標細分市場最關鍵的用戶案例，并根據其他用戶案例的突出性和潤色度來降低其優(yōu)先級。

Development will be faster with fewer features and user stories to build and test.

需要構建和測試的功能和用戶需求更少，開發(fā)速度將會更快。

And marketing will be both more targeted and more likely to yield word-of-mouth referrals with homogeneous customer segments.

營銷將更具針對性，更有可能在同質客戶群體中產生口碑和相互推薦。

There are multiple ways you can segment your market, for example based on industry, location, demographics or their usage behavior and benefits that they seek.

你可以通過多種方式細分市場，例如基于行業(yè)、位置、人口統(tǒng)計數據或他們的使用行為和他們尋求的好處。

And in a customer segmentation exercise, you use market research and your own customer data to find ovserable characteristics that predict similar product requirements.

在客戶細分練習中，你可以使用市場研究和你自己的客戶數據來查找預測類似產品需求的可疊加特征。

When you select your first one or two segments to focus on, you want them to have the following characteristics.

當你選擇了要關注的前一兩個細分市場時，你會希望它們具有以下特征

The segment should be large enough to be variable from a near-term growth perspective.

從近期增長的角度來看，該細分市場應該足夠大并足夠靈活。

And these customers should be sufficiently available that you can find them to participate in customer research.

這些客戶應該有足夠的可用性，以便你可以找到他們參與客戶研究。

From a marketing perspective it's ideal if the segment is targetable as a group.

從營銷角度來看，理想情況是細分市場可作為一個群體進行定位。

For example they attend conferences together or read similar publications in which you might advertise. ?

例如，他們一起參加會議或閱讀你可能在其中做廣告的類似出版物。

This allows you to focus your marketing spend and sales channel efforts.

這讓你可以專注于你的營銷花費以及銷售渠道的成效。

Moreover when segments spend time together digitally and particularly in person, their likelihood of recommonding products to friends and peers is much higher.

并且當這些細分市場在網絡上聚集在一起，尤其是以個人身份時，他們有很大的可能會給他們的朋友、同齡人推薦產品。

The customers within the segments need a very high overlap of needs.

細分市場中的客戶需要有非常高的需求重疊。

Software is a unique product in that there is high up front costs.

軟件是一種獨特的產品，因為前期成本很高。

But if you find a sufficiently consistent segment, the same product can be sold to multiple customers and generate large profits.

但是，如果您找到一個足夠一致的細分市場，則可以將同一產品出售給多個客戶并產生巨額利潤。

But it's not a great business or at least it's a different business consulting, if you're having to make changes for every customer.

但這不是一項偉大的業(yè)務，或者至少它是一個不同的業(yè)務咨詢，如果你必須為每個客戶做出改變。

Traditional segmentation methods like demographics or industry sectors often do surprisingly poorly in this respect.

傳統(tǒng)的細分方法，如根據人口統(tǒng)計或行業(yè)部門，在這方面往往做得很差。

Just because someone is a soccer mom they may or may not have any interest in home meal delivery for example.

例如，僅僅因為某人是愛好足球的寶媽，她們可能對家庭送餐感興趣，也可能不感興趣。

You want the basis of your segmentation to accurately describe why someone would need your services.

你希望你細分市場的方法能夠準確描述為什么有人需要你的服務。

To take this one step further, the best segments are predictive, meaning the people in that segment would almost always adopt your product or competitive one if they knew about it.

更進一步，最好的細分市場是預測性的，這意味著該細分市場中的人如果知道你的或競爭產品，幾乎總是會采用您的產品。

Finally it's ideal if winning in that segment opens up opportunities to succeed in adjacent segments.

最后，最理想的情況是，在該細分市場中獲勝并為在相似細分市場中取得成功提供了機會。

Basically a Bowlling pin effect where knocking over one pin impacts others nearby.

這是一種保齡球效應，其中的一個會影響附近的其它的。

For example, you may find that by providing technology that become standard among train operators, ?you naturally have exposure to and credibility with entities that manage other forms public transportation.

例如，你會發(fā)現在成為火車運營商標準技術的提供者后，你自然會接觸到其他形式公共交通的管理部門并具有可信度。

Personas

Personas are a specific named customer archetype which you may have seen as posters up on office walls, often accompanied by a cheesy stock photo and quotes that the person might say.

畫像是一種特殊命名的客戶原型，你可能已經看到過辦公室墻上的海報，通常伴隨著俗氣的照片和該人可能會說的名言。

Personas are a bit different than segments in that, ?for example in a single B to B segment for point of sale systems, you may have separate personas for the buyer, the end user and other key influencers in the purchase decision.

用戶畫像與市場細分略有不同，例如，在一個單個的 B2B 細分市場中，你可能會將用戶畫像分別為購買者、最終用戶和其他能夠影響購買決定的關鍵因素。

Personas can be useful in the design and development phase to target user stories or requirements which we'll discuss more in the build section. ?

用戶畫像在設計及開發(fā)階段中，對于獲取用戶需求和故事是很有幫助的，關于這一點我們會在建設部分詳細討論。

And further aid team discussions on whether something is useful or usable.

并進一步討論援助團隊是否有用或可用。

The goal of using personas is to put a face on your customer where you can think through real-life scenarios and how that person would react.

使用用戶畫像的目的是給你的顧客打上標簽，借此你可以在通過它來思考現實生活中的場景以及用戶的反應。

Often we start to get abstracted from real customers relating to them only as users or metrics.

通常，我們先將客戶的部分特質抽象出來，僅將其作為用戶或指標。

Personas are meant to ground the team in the humanity of the individuals using your products.

用戶畫像旨在讓該細分市場的用戶沉溺于你的產品。

Often a persona description includes demegraphics such as age, gender and occupation.

通常，用戶畫像包含如年齡、性別、職業(yè)之類的基礎信息。

Though description should focus on that person's key need and goals relating to your product.

盡管畫像描述應該聚焦于用戶與你的產品相關聯的關鍵需求和目標。

You and your team should be able to visualize and describe that customer's journey in terms of discovering and adapting your solution.

你和你的團隊應該讓客戶在發(fā)現和應用你的解決方案時的路徑可視化并加以描述。

While meaning PMs and UX professionals can go overboard describing a backstory for a persona.

盡管這意味著PM和UX設計會過度描繪用戶畫像。

If personal detailes such as whether Ben the bakery owner has a dog or drives an SUV don't impact the personas use or purchase your product, it's best to leave them out.

如果諸如面包店老板是養(yǎng)狗還是開SUV之類的信息并不影響用戶畫像的使用，以及消費，那最好不要將它們考慮進用戶畫像

Customer research, segmentation and personas are all tools that we can use to help answer the top question about desirability.

用戶研究、市場細分和用戶畫像都是我們可以利用來幫助解答有關于用戶合意性的問題的工具。

Getting the product market fit for desirability may require adjustments in product concepts, advertising and marketing or assumptions on target customer segments.

要使產品符合市場需求，需要調整產品概念、廣告投入和營銷策略或對目標用戶群的假設。

As a result, validation requires close partnerships between prodcut management, development, marketing and data analytics.

最后，驗證需要產品管理、開發(fā)、市場營銷和數據分析之間緊密的合作。

Financial and technology viability

Next we'll circle back to talk about financial and technology viability.

下一步我們將回過頭來討論資金和技術的可行性

Having covered desirability let's take a few moments to talk about financial viability and technical risk.

在討論完合意性之后，我們來花一些時間談談財務可行性和技術風險。

Financial viability

When I first introduced this product fit model, I explained that financial viability is base on size and growth of the market and whether your company can profitably built the product and acquire and serve customers in that market.

當我首次介紹這個產品適配模型時，我解釋說財務可行性是基于市場的規(guī)模和增長，以及你的公司是否能夠開發(fā)出盈利的產品、獲取并為該市場的客戶提供服務。

We talked about market size, share and growth analysis earlier in this course.

我們在之前的課程中已經討論過市場規(guī)模、份額和增長分析。

Forecasting is another important tool here.

預測是另一個重要的工具。

Not only for brand-new products and businesses, but really for any sizeable investment of team resources including larger features.

不僅適用于全新的產品和業(yè)務，而且適用于任何需要團隊資源投入的重要投資，包括較大的功能更新。

My personal rule of them is that product managers or business analysts should build at least a quick forecast model for any effort that will take more than a month to build for a sprint team.

根據我的個人經驗，對于需要超過一個月時間完成的任何工作，產品經理或業(yè)務分析師應該至少建立一個快速預測模型。

Why forecast? First it's a good guide check to understand how many customers you need to serve and what price points, or levels of traffic if AD supported in order to be profitable.

為什么要進行預測呢？首先，它是一個很好的指導檢查，可以了解你需要為多少客戶提供服務，以及以何種價格點或廣告支持的流量水平才能盈利。

It helps for you to challenge your assumptions and understand where the value comes from in a project.

它有助于你質疑假設，并理解項目中的價值來源。

I've personally been surprised when I started inputting assumptions and trend historical data into a forecast model that some aspects of a feature I wanted were far more valuable than others.

我個人在將假設和歷史趨勢數據輸入預測模型時，發(fā)現一些特定功能的價值遠超其他方面，這讓我感到驚訝。

Likewise, you may find that you're surprised about the costs involved with providing a service on an ongoing basis.

同樣，你可能會對提供持續(xù)服務的成本感到驚訝。

These insight can change the team's priorities and potentially allow you to cut scope.

這些洞見可以改變團隊的優(yōu)先事項，并有可能讓你減少思考范圍。

Forecasting also highlights the most sensitive variables.

預測還能突出顯示最敏感的變量

It lets you identify the things you don't know and what you need to focus on testing to reduce risk.

它讓你能夠識別到你不知道的事情，以及你需要集中測試以降低風險的部分。

Startup don't get funded without a model for how they intend to grow and eventually be profitable.

創(chuàng)業(yè)公司如果沒有一個能夠說明他們如何增長并最終盈利的模型，就很難獲得資金支持。

A surprising number of large internal projects get approved without a model.

令人驚訝的是，許多大型內部項目在沒有模型的情況下也被批準了。

But that's a mistake.

但那是錯誤的。

In LEAN, Resees argues that product teams need to be accountable for systematically learning and making progress to change the trajectory of a business.

在《精益創(chuàng)業(yè)》中，Reese提出了產品團隊需要對系統(tǒng)性學習和取得進展負責以調整業(yè)務軌跡。

Things like increasing conversion or retention rates.

比如提高轉化率或留存率等方面的事情。

As a product manager advocating lager projects, you and the team need to have a clearly stated metric for success and actually follow up and measure after launch.

作為一個支持大型項目的產品經理，你和團隊需要有明確的成功指標，并在產品發(fā)布后進行實際跟進和測量。

You should be honest when a hypothesis doesn't work out and be ready to try other approach to achieving your objectives.

當假設沒有成功時，您應該誠實，并準備好嘗試其他方法來實現您的目標。

That said there are two important notes.

話雖如此，有兩個重要的注意事項需要提醒。

First don't expect a forecast to be accurate.

首先，不要期望預測是精準的。

There is a wide margin of error in any forecast.

在任何預測中都存在很大的誤差范圍。

Particularly when you're trying to predict the value of unreleased features.

特別是當你試圖預測未發(fā)布功能的價值時。

But even order of magnitude projections provide valuable insights around priorities, risks and whether a project is worthwhile.

但即使是數量級的預測也能提供有價值的洞察，幫助確定優(yōu)先事項、風險以及項目是否值得進行。

A second point of caution is that when you use forecasts, you will find the internal groups would try to game the system, so that their projects appeare to offer bigger upsides.

第二個需要注意的問題是，在使用預測時，你會發(fā)現內部團隊會試圖操縱系統(tǒng)，使他們的項目看起來具有更大的優(yōu)勢。

I've been on many teams where the projections for sales were far too rosy for example.

我參與過許多團隊，在這些團隊中，銷售們的預測常常過于樂觀。

One way to offset this tendency is to transparently apply discount factors to forecasts from individuals and teams base on their recent actual results.

抵消這一傾向的方法之一是根據個人和團隊最近的實際結果，透明地對其預測進行相應的折扣。

Technology Possibility

We talk about technical feasibility as another pass fail test for product market fit.

我們將技術可行性作為產品能否與市場適配的另一個測試指標進行討論。

Of course, some products may be so cutting edge that there is a risk to whether they are even technical possible.

當然，有些產品的技術非常尖端，以至于它們在技術可行性上存在風險。

But more often than not, the key question you'll need to answer is whether a product or feature is possible and reasonable amount of time and budget.

但更多時候，你需要回答的關鍵問題是一個產品或功能是否可以在合理的時間和預算內完成。

One of the approaches to reducing technical risk is to have your engineering team conduct one or more spikes.

減少技術風險的方法之一是讓你的工程團隊進行一個或多個探索性實驗。

This is a term in agile to descirbe a sprint or other period of time dedicated to researching technical feasibility and possible approaches.

這是敏捷開發(fā)中的一個術語，用來描述專門用于研究技術可行性和可能方法的沖刺開發(fā)或其他一段時間。

Prototypes can also be used in research spikes in determining feasibility.

原型也可以在研究探索中用于確定可行性。

One important concept that is intended to address both technical possibility and market desirability is MVP or Minimally Viable Product.

一個既涉及技術可行性又涉及市場吸引力的重要概念是MVP（最小可行產品）。

And MVP is a shift product that customers pay for or exchange their time or personal information in the case of AD sponsored products.

MVP是一種交互性產品，客戶通過支付費用或在廣告贊助產品的情況下交換他們的時間或個人信息來使用該產品。

The goal of an MVP is to maximize learning.

MVP的目標是最大程度地促進學習。

In the very early stages, prototypes and non-technical concierge or wizard of testing may suffice as MVPs.

在早期階段，原型和非技術領域的客戶代表或測試向導可能足以作為MVP。

But in order to test both technical and market risk you need to ship products to real paying customers.

但是為了測試技術和市場風險，你需要向真實的付費客戶交付產品。

MVP does not mean low quality, it means that you don't wait for nice to have features before shipping.

MVP并不意味著低質量，它意味著無需等待產品開發(fā)至完美便可發(fā)布產品。

Instead you focus on delivering your core value proposition to market as quickly as possible.

相反，你將重點放在盡快向市場提供核心價值主張上。

In doing so you get validated learning that either tells you that you are on the right path or provide evidence that you need to adjust your products or marketing.

通過這樣做，你可以得到被驗證的經驗，這告訴你是否走在正確的道路上，或者提供證據表明你需要調整你的產品或市場營銷策略。

So how do you know when you have product fit.

所以如何知道你已經實現了產品與市場的適配呢

I've heard the head of one startup incubator say that it's when customers try to rip the product from your hand once hear about it.

我聽說過一個創(chuàng)業(yè)孵化的負責人說，當客戶一聽說產品后就試圖從你手中奪走它時，就代表實現了產品市場適配。

That's a bit tough to measure of course.

這是一種難以衡量的情況

A common metric used is net promoter score or NPS, which reflects how many people will enthusiastically recommend your product minus anyone who is unhappy or neutral.

一個常用的指標是凈推薦值（Net Promoter Score，簡稱NPS），它反映了有多少人會熱情地推薦你的產品，減去那些不滿意或持中立態(tài)度的人數。

Instructions for how to survey and calculate NPS are readily available if you search online.

如果你在網上搜索，就可以找到有關如何進行調查和計算NPS的說明。

If there is a sizeable positive gap between your NPS and that of your competition, chances are good that you've achieved product market fit for desirability.

如果你的競爭對手的NPS與你相比存在較大的差距，那么很有可能你已經實現了產品與市場的適配。

We've talked about the tools that you could use to validate your product hypothesis and reduce risk.

我們已經討論了可以用來驗證產品假設并降低風險的工具。

All of which happenes before the development teams starts building the production-ready qulity product.

所有這些都發(fā)生在開發(fā)團隊開始構建符合生產質量標準的產品之前。

Those include customer research, segmentation and personas, forecast models and MVP testing.

這些包括客戶研究、市場細分和人物畫像、預測模型以及MVP測試。

Build, Buy, Acquire

Occasionally you'll discover that internal development is not the best approach for some components or even an entire product concept.

有時你會發(fā)現內部開發(fā)并不是開發(fā)某些組件甚至整個產品的最佳方法。

In these cases you need to work with business development and potentially corporate development to partner with third parties.

在這些情況下，你需要與業(yè)務發(fā)展部門和潛在的企業(yè)發(fā)展部門合作，與第三方合作伙伴。

We cover that topic briefly in our next section.

我們在下一節(jié)中會簡要介紹這一話題。

There are times when it ?doesn't make sense to build technology in-house.

有時候，在公司內部進行技術開發(fā)并不是一個明智的選擇。

And it is not available as open source.

同樣也不是開源技術

So you'd better off working with outside partner.

因此，與外部合作伙伴合作可能更加合適。

Several considerations come into play as to whether you should build versus buy or rent technology, including the time it would take to build internally, cost, the degree of customization you require and how central the tech is in your future roadmap.

在決定是自己開發(fā)還是購買或租用技術時，需要考慮多個因素，包括內部開發(fā)所需的時間和成本、所需的定制程度以及該技術在你未來路線圖中的重要程度。

Nearly all tech companies rely on partners including use of commercial APIs or SDKs.

幾乎所有的科技公司都依賴于合作伙伴，包括使用商業(yè)API或SDK。

Many times there are straight forward deals because the terms are standard and published.

很多時候，這些交易都很簡單，因為條款是標準的并且公開發(fā)布的。

For example integrating the Google Map's API.

例如谷歌地圖的API

But in other cases your company will need to negotiate a custom agreement.

但在其他情況下，你的公司需要進行定制協議的協商。

Additionally there will be situation where you need significant control and the technology is critical, yet someone else has already built an ideal solution.

此外，還會有一些情況，你需要對技術有重大控制權，而技術又非常關鍵，但別人已經構建了一個理想的解決方案。

In those cases, companies often consider acquisition.

在這些情況下，公司通常會考慮收購。

Product managers are frequently involved with third-party negotiations, whether those be business development, doing a deal with a separate company or corporate development where there is investment or acquisition.

產品經理經常參與與第三方的談判，無論是與其他公司進行業(yè)務拓展的交易，還是在投資或收購方面進行企業(yè)發(fā)展。

In smaller companies you may need to screen and select vendors and negotiate the contract with support from legal.

在較小的公司中，你可能需要篩選和選擇供應商，并在法律團隊支持下進行合同談判。

In medium or large organizations you'll work with someone from business development in addition to legal.

在中型或大型公司中，你將與商務拓展部門的人員以及法律團隊合作。

In a negotiate contract product managers are typically responsible for clarifying the requirements and identifying potential partners and vendors.

在合同談判中，產品經理通常負責澄清需求并確定潛在合作伙伴和供應商。

This is an important step even if you have a partner in mind.

即使你心中已有合作對象，這仍是一個重要的步驟。

The more options you have, the great your negotiation leverage.

你擁有的選擇越多，你的談判籌碼就越大。

You'll also be asked along with engineering to evaluate the various vendors from a feature and capability perspective.

你還將與工程團隊一起求從功能和能力的角度評估各個供應商。

And you should weigh in on tradeoffs that you'd be willing to make throughout the negotiation.

你還應該對談判過程如何做出權衡進行判斷。

An acquisition is obviously more significant.

顯然，收購更具有重大意義。

In addition to developing the list of potential acquisition targets and comparing them, you may be asked to participate in acquisition due diligence.

除了制定潛在收購目標清單并進行比較之外，你可能會被要求參與收購調查工作。

This is the period during which the acquiring, company gets to more deeply evaluate the potential acquisitions data, team and their technology beyond what is publicly available.

這是在收購期間，公司要更深入地評估潛在收購目標的數據、團隊和技術，這遠多于可公開可得到的信息。

This due diligence could be quite time consuming and is typically on a tight deadline, so you may need to drop everything to do well.

這種詳細調查可能非常耗時，并且通常有嚴格的截止日期，因此你可能需要放下一切，以確保工作順利進行。

With that we've covered the key product management responsibilities in the define and validate stage.

至此我們已經談論完了在定義及評估階段產品管理的關鍵職責。

Keep in mind that the output from the validation phase may very well be that the concept and vision are wrong and you need to pivot.

請記住，驗證階段輸出的概念和愿景很可能是錯誤的，你需要及時進行調整。