If you have spent the past few days being sizzled alive on a Mediterranean beach or slow-roasted on the streets of Berlin, London or Rome amid a heatwave, cold weather may be the last thing on your mind. But make no mistake, winter is coming, and it promises to be brutal and divisive because of an energy crisis that is rapidly worsening as Vladimir Putin strangles supplies of Russian gas. Several calamities in the past decade have come close to ripping Europe apart, including the euro crisis in the early 2010s and the migrant crisis in 2015. The winter energy shock of 2022 could yet join them. Once again, the continent’s unity and resolve are about to be tested.

如果你在過(guò)去的幾天里，在地中海的海灘上被炙烤，或者在柏林、倫敦或羅馬的街道上被熱浪慢烤，你可能根本不會(huì)想到寒冷的天氣。但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，冬天就要來(lái)了，隨著弗拉基米爾?普京扼制俄羅斯天然氣供應(yīng)，能源危機(jī)正在迅速惡化，這個(gè)冬天注定變得殘酷且具有分裂性。過(guò)去十年發(fā)生的幾次災(zāi)難幾乎將歐洲擊垮，其中包括2010年代初的歐元危機(jī)和2015年的移民危機(jī)。2022年的冬季能源沖擊可能也會(huì)加入其中。歐洲大陸的團(tuán)結(jié)和決心即將再次受到考驗(yàn)。

Most Europeans cannot yet see or smell the gastastrophe, but in the markets the warning signs are already flashing red. Prices for delivery of gas this winter, at €182/mwh ($184/mwh), are almost as high as in early March, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and seven times their long-run level. Governments are preparing bail-outs of crippled utilities in France and Germany, and some investors are betting on which industrial firms will go bust later this year as rationing takes hold. While most of Europe’s politicians fail to level with the public about the hard choices that lie ahead, even grizzled energy traders used to wars and coups have started to sound worried.

大多數(shù)歐洲人還未能看到或嗅到這場(chǎng)天然氣災(zāi)難，但在市場(chǎng)上，預(yù)警信號(hào)已經(jīng)亮起紅燈。今年冬天的天然氣輸送價(jià)格為182歐元/兆瓦時(shí)(合184美元/兆瓦時(shí))，幾乎與3月初俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭后的價(jià)格一樣高，這一價(jià)格是其長(zhǎng)期水平的7倍。法國(guó)和德國(guó)的政府正準(zhǔn)備為陷入困境的公用事業(yè)公司紓困，一些投資者正押注于隨著定量配給政策的實(shí)施，哪些工業(yè)企業(yè)將在今年晚些時(shí)候破產(chǎn)。盡管大多數(shù)歐洲政客未能向公眾坦誠(chéng)未來(lái)面臨的艱難選擇，但就連見慣了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和政變的頭發(fā)花白的能源交易員也開始感到擔(dān)憂。

A severe energy crisis has been a danger ever since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. As sanctions and Russian blackmail threaten to cut Europe from its main supplier, gas is the choke-point. It satisfies a quarter of the continent’s energy demand and Russia supplies a third of that. The figures are higher for some countries, including Germany. Unlike oil and coal, which are fungible and traded globally, gas must either be piped or transported as liquefied natural gas (lng), using facilities that take years to build or reconfigure.

自從俄羅斯坦克開進(jìn)烏克蘭以來(lái)，嚴(yán)重的能源危機(jī)一直是一個(gè)威脅。由于制裁和俄羅斯的勒索威脅要切斷歐洲與其主要供應(yīng)國(guó)的聯(lián)系，天然氣成了癥結(jié)所在。天然氣滿足了歐洲大陸四分之一的能源需求，俄羅斯提供了其中的三分之一。包括德國(guó)在內(nèi)的一些國(guó)家的數(shù)字更高。與石油和煤炭不同的是，石油和煤炭是可替代的，可以在全球范圍內(nèi)交易，天然氣必須通過(guò)管道輸送或以液化天然氣的形式運(yùn)輸，使用的設(shè)施需要數(shù)年時(shí)間才能建造或重新配置。

As Mr Putin understands all too well, gas is also a market in which Russia holds the whip hand. Its economy would collapse without oil exports that on average have been worth 10% of its GDP over the past five years—which is why Russia has gone to extraordinary and largely successful lengths to break the Western crude embargo. But Russia can live without gas exports, which are only 2% of GDP. By turning down the taps on its pipelines, it thinks it can inflict more pain on Europe than it visits on itself.

【1】the whip hand 支配地位

普京非常清楚，在天然氣市場(chǎng)上，俄羅斯也掌握著主動(dòng)權(quán)。如果沒(méi)有過(guò)去五年平均占其GDP 10%的石油出口，其經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)崩潰，這就是為什么俄羅斯在打破西方原油禁運(yùn)方面不遺余力，而且取得了巨大成功。但是俄羅斯沒(méi)有天然氣出口也能生存，天然氣出口僅占GDP的2%。它認(rèn)為，通過(guò)關(guān)閉輸送天然氣管道的水龍頭，它給歐洲帶來(lái)的痛苦要大于給自己帶來(lái)的痛苦。

Until a few weeks ago it seemed as if Europe might escape the worst, helped by more lng cargoes from America and elsewhere. Gas demand is seasonal, so it is vital to build up reserves in the spring and summer. From a scary 26% in March, by June Europe’s gas tanks were over half-full and on track to hit 80% by November, the minimum needed to get through winter.

直到幾周前，歐洲似乎還能擺脫最糟糕的局面，這得益于來(lái)自美國(guó)和其他地方的更多液化天然氣運(yùn)輸。天然氣需求是季節(jié)性的，因此在春季和夏季增加儲(chǔ)量至關(guān)重要。從3月份的可怕的26%，到6月份，歐洲的天然氣儲(chǔ)備箱已經(jīng)滿了一半以上，并有望在11月份達(dá)到80%，這是熬過(guò)冬天所需的最低限度80%。

Now the picture is worsening again. Glitches at a Norwegian gasfield are partly to blame, as is the hot weather which creates demand for electricity to power air-conditioning. But the big problem is the flow of gas to Europe from Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly. It was already running at about half the normal level and has dropped even further. Russia says that since July 11th, Nord Stream 1, an important pipeline, has been undergoing maintenance which will be completed by July 22nd. But it has not compensated by increasing supply via alternative pipelines that pass through Ukraine. Because traders think Mr Putin is deliberately squeezing supply, prices for delivery in two winters’ time, in 2023-24, are four times the normal level.

現(xiàn)在情況再次惡化。挪威一個(gè)天然氣田的故障是部分原因，炎熱的天氣也造成了對(duì)空調(diào)供電的需求。但最大的問(wèn)題是俄羅斯天然氣壟斷企業(yè)俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司向歐洲輸送的天然氣。它的運(yùn)行速度已經(jīng)僅剩正常水平的一半左右，而且還進(jìn)一步下降。俄羅斯表示，自7月11日以來(lái)，北溪1號(hào)這個(gè)重要的管道一直在進(jìn)行維護(hù)，將于7月22日完工。不過(guò)它還沒(méi)有采取措施，即通過(guò)增加經(jīng)由烏克蘭的供應(yīng)，來(lái)彌補(bǔ)（北溪1號(hào)維修）造成的減供。由于交易員認(rèn)為普京是在故意壓縮供應(yīng)，所以2023-2024年兩個(gè)冬天的交付價(jià)格是正常水平的4倍。

Consumers, who use gas directly for heating and cooking, as well as indirectly as electricity, have little idea of what may hit them. At the moment, many are protected by price caps, subsidies and long-term contracts. The typical German pays at least 70% less than the market price for gas. Industrial users such as chemicals and glassmaking firms are in trouble, as well as a broad list of businesses, including many German champions. Across the euro zone a halt to Russian gas flows could lower GDP growth by 3.4 percentage points and raise inflation by 2.7 percentage points, according to ubs, a bank. In Germany the hit would be still worse.

消費(fèi)者直接使用天然氣取暖和做飯，以及間接使用天然氣發(fā)電，他們對(duì)于他們可能受到的沖擊一無(wú)所知。目前，許多消費(fèi)者受到價(jià)格上限、補(bǔ)貼和長(zhǎng)期合同的保護(hù)。一般德國(guó)人支付的天然氣價(jià)格至少比市場(chǎng)價(jià)低70%?；ず筒Ａе圃斓裙I(yè)用戶以及包括許多德國(guó)龍頭企業(yè)在內(nèi)的眾多企業(yè)都陷入了困境。根據(jù)瑞士聯(lián)合銀行的說(shuō)法，在整個(gè)歐元區(qū)，俄羅斯停止天然氣供應(yīng)可能會(huì)使GDP增長(zhǎng)下降3.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并使通貨膨脹上升2.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在德國(guó)，打擊將更為嚴(yán)重。

You may think a recession and inflation would be tolerable—after all, in 2020 Europe’s covid-hit GDP fell by 6%. But the energy threat is more insidious. Shortages could trigger beggar-thy-neighbour behaviour as states hoard gas, stopping it from flowing on to the next country. Britain has threatened as much. Gaps in the wholesale price of gas in different eu countries suggest that firms fear a breakdown in the single market. Governments’ debts are higher than ever. A stagflationary shock could raise fears of defaults or even of an Italian debt crisis that would threaten the entire euro zone. A popular backlash over energy prices could also erode popular support across the continent for standing up to Mr Putin.?

你可能認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和通貨膨脹是可以容忍的，畢竟，2020年歐洲受新冠疫情影響的GDP下降了6%。但能源威脅隱患更大。天然氣短缺可能會(huì)引發(fā)以鄰為壑的行為，因?yàn)楦鲊?guó)會(huì)囤積天然氣，阻止其流向下一個(gè)國(guó)家。英國(guó)也受到了同樣的威脅。不同歐盟國(guó)家天然氣批發(fā)價(jià)格的差距表明，企業(yè)擔(dān)心單一市場(chǎng)的崩潰。政府的債務(wù)比以往任何時(shí)候都高。滯脹沖擊可能引發(fā)對(duì)違約甚至意大利債務(wù)危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂，這將威脅整個(gè)歐元區(qū)。公眾對(duì)能源價(jià)格的普遍強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)，可能削弱歐洲大陸應(yīng)該“勇敢對(duì)抗”普京的共識(shí)。

For all these reasons, European governments must rouse themselves to face the energy shock now. As with vaccines, they need to transcend national divisions. The European Commission is working on a plan to present to an emergency summit on July 26th. Given their roles in the gas trade, the plan should include Britain and Norway. Supply needs to be maximised, which is why common purchases of lng cargoes are worth pursuing and why the Netherlands should postpone closing its Groningen gasfield next year.

出于所有這些原因，歐洲各國(guó)政府現(xiàn)在必須振作起來(lái)，面對(duì)能源沖擊。與疫苗一樣，它們需要超越國(guó)家分歧。歐盟委員會(huì)正在制定一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，將于7月26日召開緊急峰會(huì)?？紤]到它們?cè)谔烊粴赓Q(mào)易中的角色，該計(jì)劃應(yīng)該包括英國(guó)和挪威。供應(yīng)需要最大化，這就是為什么共同采購(gòu)液化天然氣是值得的，也是為什么荷蘭應(yīng)該推遲明年關(guān)閉格羅寧根天然氣田的原因。

Next is the need for a common hierarchy governing rationing, applied across the continent: intensive energy users should suffer first, consumers last. Countries need to share storage capacity and guarantee free movement of gas. The more integrated the system, the more resilient it will be. Last, politicians should be honest with the public. Consumer prices need to rise now in order to curtail demand and help build up storage. Help will come next winter from even small voluntary changes in household habits, such as keeping the heating lower.

其次，需要建立一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的、適用于整個(gè)歐洲大陸的配給層級(jí)制度：密集型能源使用者首當(dāng)其沖，消費(fèi)者最后。各國(guó)應(yīng)共享儲(chǔ)存能力，并保障天然氣自由流動(dòng)。這個(gè)系統(tǒng)的整合程度越高，它的彈性就越大。最后，政治家應(yīng)該對(duì)公眾誠(chéng)實(shí)。消費(fèi)者價(jià)格現(xiàn)在需要上漲，以抑制需求并幫助增加存儲(chǔ)。明年冬天，即使是家庭習(xí)慣上很小的自愿改變，比如降低暖氣溫度，也會(huì)帶來(lái)幫助。

The prize for Europe is not just getting through the coming months. Europe will forever free itself from Russian energy intimidation. It will also have created a coherent continent-wide energy-security mechanism that will help accelerate the shift to cleaner energy. Europe has a habit of coming together during crises. It is time to do so again. If you are reading this in Paris or Madrid with the air-conditioning on, turn it down a notch.?

對(duì)歐洲來(lái)說(shuō)，這一回報(bào)不只是熬過(guò)接下來(lái)的幾個(gè)月。歐洲將永遠(yuǎn)擺脫俄羅斯的能源威脅。它還將建立一個(gè)連貫的全歐洲大陸能源安全機(jī)制，這有助于加速向清潔能源的轉(zhuǎn)變。歐洲習(xí)慣于在危機(jī)期間團(tuán)結(jié)一致?，F(xiàn)在是再次這樣做的時(shí)候了。如果你正在開著空調(diào)的巴黎或馬德里讀這篇文章，請(qǐng)把溫度調(diào)低一檔。