小米手機(jī)高庫存對Android供應(yīng)鏈的警訊
根據(jù)相關(guān)行業(yè)分析師郭明錤的數(shù)據(jù)，小米公司近期的零組件庫存積壓嚴(yán)重，他給出的相關(guān)分析如下：
在小米的零組件庫存 (約等同2,000–3,000萬部手機(jī)) 中，狀況最嚴(yán)重的是處理器，供應(yīng)商為聯(lián)發(fā)科與Qualcomm。
幾乎所有Android品牌均面臨因需求疲弱導(dǎo)致的高庫存風(fēng)險，不僅是小米。以Samsung為例，該品牌的全球手機(jī)庫存 (終端與零組件總和) 預(yù)計要到6月才有機(jī)會降到合理水位。
對有議價力的Android零組件供應(yīng)商，因?yàn)樵?020–2022年供應(yīng)短缺時簽下的供貨合約，可以將庫存轉(zhuǎn)嫁到品牌與代理商/經(jīng)銷商。然而，這樣做雖可讓庫存在短期內(nèi)修正到合理水位，但品牌與代理商/經(jīng)銷商的高庫存可能會導(dǎo)致未來數(shù)個季度對零組件的需求疲弱。
因?yàn)槠放苹虼砩?經(jīng)銷商對零組件的需求疲弱，故即便庫存降到合理水位的零組件，至少在未來6–9個月普遍也會面臨出貨YoY衰退的挑戰(zhàn)，可能不利股價表現(xiàn)。
某些零組件供應(yīng)商因面臨產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)改變 (如新競爭對手進(jìn)入導(dǎo)致市占率下滑等)，那麼即便未來需求因經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)甦而改善，仍面臨中長期成長放緩或衰退的挑戰(zhàn)。
Xiaomi’s component inventory, equivalent to roughly 20–30 million smartphones, is showing the most severe signs of excess in terms of processors, with MediaTek and Qualcomm as the suppliers.
Xiaomi and most Android brands are at risk of high inventory levels due to weak demand. For example, Samsung’s global mobile phone inventory, which combines end products and components, may not drop to a reasonable level until June.
Android component suppliers with strong bargaining power can pass on excess inventory to brands and agents/distributors due to the supply contracts signed during the shortage period from 2020–2022. However, while this may provide a short-term solution to correct inventory levels, the high inventory levels among brands and agents/distributors may result in weak demand for components in the next few quarters.
Even if component inventory levels drop to a reasonable level, the weak demand for most components from brands or agents/distributors will likely result in a YoY shipment decline over the next 6–9 months at least, which could negatively impact stock prices.
Some component suppliers are experiencing changes in the industry structure, such as the entry of new competitors leading to a decline in market share. Thus, even if future demand improves due to economic recovery, they still face the challenge of slowing growth or recession in the medium and long term.
