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——更多期刊動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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1．The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation?

回返移民、人力資本積累和工資同化的動(dòng)態(tài)

Jér?me Adda,?Christian Dustmann,?Joseph-Simon G?rlach

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2841–2871,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac003

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This article develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies that initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.

本文開發(fā)并估計(jì)了一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)模型，其中個(gè)人的能力和地點(diǎn)偏好不同，以評(píng)估影響移民職業(yè)演變的機(jī)制以及他們的再移民計(jì)劃。我們的分析強(qiáng)調(diào)了一種新穎的選擇性回返移民形式，即那些計(jì)劃停留更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的人更多地投資于技能獲取，這對(duì)評(píng)估移民的職業(yè)道路和估計(jì)他們的收入狀況具有重要意義。我們的研究還解釋了移民愿意接受當(dāng)?shù)厝怂坪鯚o法接受的工資工作的意愿。最后，我們的模型為移民政策的設(shè)計(jì)提供了重要的見解，表明最初限制居住或以成就為條件居住的政策不僅通過對(duì)人力資本投資的影響來塑造移民的職業(yè)概況，而且還決定了抵達(dá)和離開者的選擇。

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2．The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating?

汽車污染對(duì)嬰幼兒健康的影響——來自排放作弊的證據(jù)

Diane Alexander,?Hannes Schwandt

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2872–2910,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac007

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In 2008, Volkswagen introduced a new generation of “Clean Diesel” cars and heavily marketed them to environmentally conscious US consumers. Unknown to the public, these cars were anything but clean, emitting pollutants up to 150 times the level of comparable gas-fuelled cars. We study the rollout of these emissions-cheating diesel cars across the United States from 2008 to 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the impact of moderate levels of car pollution on infant and child health in the general population. Using the universe of vehicle registrations, we find that an additional cheating diesel car per 1,000 cars increases?PM2.5PM2.5?,?PM10PM10?, and ozone by 2, 2.2, and 1.3%%?, respectively, while the low birth weight rate and infant mortality rate increase by 1.9 and 1.7%%?, respectively. Similar impacts are found for acute asthma attacks in children. These health impacts occur at all pollution levels and across the socioeconomic spectrum.

2008年，大眾汽車推出了新一代“清潔柴油”汽車，并向具有環(huán)保意識(shí)的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者進(jìn)行了大量營(yíng)銷。公眾不知道，這些汽車一點(diǎn)也不干凈，排放的污染物是同類汽油燃料汽車的150倍。我們研究了2008年至2015年美國(guó)各地這些排放作弊柴油車的推出，作為一項(xiàng)自然實(shí)驗(yàn)，以研究中等水平的汽車污染對(duì)普通人群中嬰幼兒健康的影響。使用車輛登記量，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)每1000輛汽車增加一輛作弊柴油車，PM2.5 PM2.5、PM10PM10和臭氧分別增加2%、2.2%和1.3%，而低出生體重率和嬰兒死亡率增加1.9%和1.7%分別。對(duì)兒童急性哮喘發(fā)作也有類似的影響。這些健康影響發(fā)生在所有污染水平和整個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)范圍內(nèi)。

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3．The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements?

交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善的福利效應(yīng)

Treb Allen,?Costas Arkolakis

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2911–2957,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac001

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Each year in the US, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on transportation infrastructure and billions of hours are lost in traffic. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial framework featuring endogenous transportation costs and traffic congestion and apply it to evaluate the welfare impact of transportation infrastructure improvements. Our approach yields analytical expressions for transportation costs between any two locations, the traffic along each link of the transportation network, and the equilibrium distribution of economic activity across the economy, each as a function of the underlying quality of infrastructure and the strength of traffic congestion. We characterize the properties of such an equilibrium and show how the framework can be combined with traffic data to evaluate the impact of improving any segment of the infrastructure network. Applying our framework to both the US highway network and the Seattle road network, we find highly variable returns to investment across different links in the respective transportation networks, highlighting the importance of well-targeted infrastructure investment.

在美國(guó)，每年有數(shù)千億美元用于交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，數(shù)十億小時(shí)在交通中損失。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)以內(nèi)生交通成本和交通擁堵為特征的定量一般均衡空間框架，并將其應(yīng)用于評(píng)估交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善對(duì)福利的影響。我們的方法可以分析任何兩個(gè)地點(diǎn)之間的運(yùn)輸成本、運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)每個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的交通量以及整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的均衡分布，每個(gè)都取決于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的基本質(zhì)量和交通擁堵的強(qiáng)度。我們描述了這種均衡的特性，并展示了如何將框架與交通數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合，以評(píng)估改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施網(wǎng)絡(luò)任何部分的影響。將我們的框架應(yīng)用于美國(guó)高速公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)和西雅圖公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)各自交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)中不同環(huán)節(jié)的投資回報(bào)率差異很大，這凸顯了有針對(duì)性的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的重要性。

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4．Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples

宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的主觀模型：來自專家的證據(jù)和代表性樣本

Peter Andre,?Carlo Pizzinelli,?Christopher Roth,?Johannes Wohlfart

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2958–2991,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac008

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We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks and previous realizations of macroeconomic variables. Within samples of 6,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems to arise because respondents think of different propagation channels of the shocks, in particular demand- vs. supply-side mechanisms. We provide evidence on the role of associative memory in driving heterogeneity in thoughts and forecasts: contextual cues and prior experiences shape which propagation channels individuals retrieve and thereby which forecasts they make. Our findings offer a new perspective on the widely documented disagreement in macroeconomic expectations.

我們研究人們對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的主觀模型，并闡明他們的注意力基礎(chǔ)。為此，我們衡量了對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對(duì)失業(yè)和通貨膨脹影響的信念，為受訪者提供了關(guān)于沖擊參數(shù)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量先前實(shí)現(xiàn)的相同信息。在6，500個(gè)美國(guó)家庭和1，500名專家的樣本中，信念廣泛分散，甚至關(guān)于沖擊的方向效應(yīng)，家庭和專家之間的平均信念存在很大差異。這種分歧的部分原因似乎是因?yàn)槭茉L者認(rèn)為沖擊的傳播渠道不同，特別是需求與供應(yīng)方機(jī)制。我們提供了關(guān)于聯(lián)想記憶在驅(qū)動(dòng)思想和預(yù)測(cè)異質(zhì)性方面的作用的證據(jù)：上下文線索和先前的經(jīng)驗(yàn)塑造了個(gè)人檢索的傳播渠道，從而形成了他們做出的預(yù)測(cè)。我們的研究結(jié)果為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期中廣泛記錄的分歧提供了新的視角。

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5．Product Life Cycle, Learning, and Nominal Shocks

產(chǎn)品生命周期、學(xué)習(xí)和名義沖擊

David Argente,?Chen Yeh

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2992–3054,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac004

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This article documents a new set of stylized facts on how pricing moments depend on product age and emphasizes how this heterogeneity is crucial for the amplification of nominal shocks to the real economy. Exploiting information from a unique panel containing billions of transactions in the US consumer goods sector, we show that our empirical findings are consistent with a narrative in which firms face demand uncertainty and learn through prices. Such a mechanism of active learning from prices can strongly influence an economy’s aggregate price level and can thus be important for assessing the degree of monetary non-neutrality. To quantify this, we build a general equilibrium menu cost model with active learning and exogenous entry that features heterogeneity in pricing moments over the life cycle of products. Under this setup, firms engage in active learning to deal with uncertainty on their demand curves. Firms choose prices not only to maximize static profits but also to create signals to obtain valuable information on their demand. In the calibrated version of our model, the cumulative real effects of a nominal shock are approximately three times as large compared to a standard price-setting model. The main intuition behind this result is that active learning weakens the selection effect. Price changes are mainly determined by forces of active learning and, hence, become more orthogonal to aggregate shocks, which reduces the aggregate price flexibility of the economy.

本文記錄了一組關(guān)于定價(jià)時(shí)刻如何取決于產(chǎn)品年齡的典型事實(shí)，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了這種異質(zhì)性對(duì)于放大對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的名義沖擊至關(guān)重要。利用來自包含美國(guó)消費(fèi)品行業(yè)數(shù)十億筆交易的獨(dú)特面板的信息，我們表明我們的實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn)與公司面臨需求不確定性并通過價(jià)格學(xué)習(xí)的敘述一致。這種主動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)價(jià)格的機(jī)制可以強(qiáng)烈影響經(jīng)濟(jì)體的總價(jià)格水平，因此對(duì)于評(píng)估貨幣非中性程度非常重要。為了量化這一點(diǎn)，我們建立了一個(gè)具有主動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)和外生進(jìn)入的一般均衡菜單成本模型，該模型具有產(chǎn)品生命周期中定價(jià)時(shí)刻的異質(zhì)性。在這種設(shè)置下，公司進(jìn)行主動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)以應(yīng)對(duì)需求曲線的不確定性。企業(yè)選擇價(jià)格不僅是為了最大化靜態(tài)利潤(rùn)，也是為了創(chuàng)造信號(hào)來獲得有價(jià)值的需求信息。在我們模型的校準(zhǔn)版本中，名義沖擊的累積實(shí)際效應(yīng)大約是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)定價(jià)模型的三倍。這個(gè)結(jié)果背后的主要直覺是主動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)削弱了選擇效應(yīng)。價(jià)格變化主要由主動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)的力量決定，因此與總體沖擊更加正交，從而降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)的總體價(jià)格靈活性。

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6．Coordinated Capacity Reductions and Public Communication in the Airline Industry?

航空業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)力削減和公共溝通

Gaurab Aryal,?Federico Ciliberto,?Benjamin T Leyden

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3055–3084,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab100

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We investigate the allegation that legacy US airlines communicated via earnings calls to coordinate with other legacy airlines in offering fewer seats on competitive routes. To this end, we first use text analytics to build a novel dataset on communication among airlines about their capacity choices. Estimates from our preferred specification show that the number of offered seats is 2%%?lower when all legacy airlines in a market discuss the concept of “capacity discipline.” We verify that this reduction materializes only when legacy airlines communicate concurrently, and that it cannot be explained by other possibilities, including that airlines are simply announcing to investors their unilateral plans to reduce capacity, and then following through on those announcements.

我們調(diào)查了美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)航空公司通過財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議與其他傳統(tǒng)航空公司協(xié)調(diào)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)航線上提供較少座位的指控。為此，我們首先使用文本分析來構(gòu)建航空公司之間關(guān)于其運(yùn)力選擇的通信的新數(shù)據(jù)集。根據(jù)我們首選規(guī)格的估計(jì)，當(dāng)市場(chǎng)上所有傳統(tǒng)航空公司討論“運(yùn)力紀(jì)律”的概念時(shí)，提供的座位數(shù)量會(huì)降低 2%。我們證實(shí)，只有當(dāng)傳統(tǒng)航空公司同時(shí)溝通時(shí)，這種減少才會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)，并且不能用其他可能性來解釋，包括航空公司只是向投資者宣布他們單方面削減運(yùn)力的計(jì)劃，然后繼續(xù)執(zhí)行這些公告。

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7．Yogurts Choose Consumers? Estimation of Random-Utility Models via Two-Sided Matching?

酸奶選擇消費(fèi)者？基于雙側(cè)匹配的隨機(jī)效用模型估計(jì)

Odran Bonnet,?Alfred Galichon,?Yu-Wei Hsieh,?Keith O’Hara,?Matt Shum

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3085–3114,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac006

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The problem of?demand inversion—a crucial step in the estimation of random utility discrete-choice models—is equivalent to the determination of stable outcomes in two-sided matching models. This equivalence applies to random utility models that are not necessarily additive, smooth, nor even invertible. Based on this equivalence, algorithms for the determination of stable matchings provide effective computational methods for estimating these models. For non-invertible models, the identified set of utility vectors is a lattice, and the matching algorithms recover sharp upper and lower bounds on the utilities. Our matching approach facilitates estimation of models that were previously difficult to estimate, such as the pure characteristics model. An empirical application to voting data from the 1999 European Parliament elections illustrates the good performance of our matching-based demand inversion algorithms in practice.

需求倒置問題——隨機(jī)效用離散選擇模型估計(jì)的關(guān)鍵步驟——等效于在雙側(cè)匹配模型中確定穩(wěn)定結(jié)果。這種等同性適用于不一定是可加的、光滑的，甚至不可逆的隨機(jī)實(shí)用新型?；谶@種等價(jià)性，用于確定穩(wěn)定匹配的算法為估計(jì)這些模型提供了有效的計(jì)算方法。對(duì)于不可逆模型，識(shí)別的效用向量集是一個(gè)格，匹配算法恢復(fù)效用的尖銳上限和下限。我們的匹配方法有助于估計(jì)以前難以估計(jì)的模型，例如純特征模型。對(duì)1999年歐洲議會(huì)選舉投票數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證應(yīng)用說明了我們基于匹配的需求反演算法在實(shí)踐中的良好表現(xiàn)。

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8．China’s Model of Managing the Financial System?

中國(guó)的金融體系管理模式

Markus K Brunnermeier,?Michael Sockin,?Wei Xiong

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3115–3153,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab098

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China’s economic model involves regular and intensive government interventions in financial markets, while Western policymakers often refrain from substantial interventions outside crisis periods. We develop a theoretical framework to rationalize the approaches of both China and the West to managing the financial system as being optimal given the differences in their respective economies. In this framework, a government leans against trading of noise traders but at the expense of introducing policy noise to the market. Our welfare analysis shows that under certain underlying economic conditions, the optimal government policy induces a government-centric equilibrium, in which government intervention is so intensive that all investors choose to acquire private information about policy noise rather than fundamentals. This policy regime characterizes China’s approach with financial stability prioritized over other policy objectives.

中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式涉及政府對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)的定期和密集干預(yù)，而西方?jīng)Q策者往往避免在危機(jī)時(shí)期之外進(jìn)行實(shí)質(zhì)性干預(yù)。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)理論框架，使中國(guó)和西方在各自經(jīng)濟(jì)差異的情況下將金融體系的管理方法合理化為最優(yōu)。在這個(gè)框架下，政府傾向于反對(duì)噪音交易者的交易，但代價(jià)是將政策噪音引入市場(chǎng)。我們的福利分析表明，在某些潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，最優(yōu)的政府政策會(huì)導(dǎo)致以政府為中心的均衡，其中政府干預(yù)如此密集，以至于所有投資者都選擇獲取有關(guān)政策噪音而不是基本面的私人信息。這種政策制度的特點(diǎn)是中國(guó)將金融穩(wěn)定置于其他政策目標(biāo)之上的方法。

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9．The Design of Teacher Assignment: Theory and Evidence?

教師分配設(shè)計(jì)：理論與證據(jù)

Julien Combe,?Olivier Tercieux,?Camille Terrier

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3154–3222,

To assign teachers to schools, a modified version of the well-known deferred acceptance mechanism has been proposed in the literature and is used in practice. We show that this mechanism fails to be fair and efficient for both teachers and schools. We identify a class of strategy-proof mechanisms that cannot be improved upon in terms of both efficiency and fairness. Using a rich dataset on teachers’ applications in France, we estimate teachers preferences and perform a counterfactual analysis. The results show that these mechanisms perform much better than the modified version of deferred acceptance. For instance, the number of teachers moving from their positions more than triples under our mechanism.

為了將教師分配到學(xué)校，文獻(xiàn)中提出了眾所周知的延期接受機(jī)制的修改版本，并在實(shí)踐中使用。我們表明，這種機(jī)制對(duì)教師和學(xué)校都不公平和有效。我們確定了一類在效率和公平性方面都無法改進(jìn)的戰(zhàn)略證明機(jī)制。使用關(guān)于法國(guó)教師申請(qǐng)的豐富數(shù)據(jù)集，我們估計(jì)了教師的偏好并進(jìn)行反事實(shí)分析。結(jié)果表明，這些機(jī)制的性能遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于延遲接受的修改版本。例如，在我們的機(jī)制下，從其職位上調(diào)離的教師人數(shù)增加了兩倍多。

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10．A Theory of Participation in OTC and Centralized Markets?

參與場(chǎng)外交易和中心化市場(chǎng)的理論

Jér?me Dugast,?Semih üslü,?Pierre-Olivier Weill

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3223–3266,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac010

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Should regulators encourage the migration of trade from over-the-counter (OTC) to centralized markets? To address this question, we study a model in which banks make costly decisions to participate in an OTC market, a centralized market, or both markets at the same time. Banks differ in their ability to take large positions, what we call their trading capacity. In equilibrium, intermediate-capacity banks find it optimal to participate in the centralized market. In contrast, low- and high-capacity banks find it optimal to participate in the OTC market, due to an endogenous complementarity. Namely, low-capacity banks receive worse terms of trade than in the centralized market but better risk sharing, thanks to the intermediation services offered by high-capacity banks. High-capacity banks receive worse risk sharing than in the centralized market, but profit from the provision of intermediation services to low-capacity banks. While the social optimum has qualitatively similar participation patterns, it prescribes that more customers migrate to the centralized market, and that more dealers enter the OTC market.

監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)是否應(yīng)該鼓勵(lì)交易從場(chǎng)外交易（OTC）向中心化市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移？為了解決這個(gè)問題，我們研究了一種模型，在該模型中，銀行做出昂貴的決策來參與場(chǎng)外交易市場(chǎng)、集中市場(chǎng)或同時(shí)參與兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)。銀行持有大量頭寸的能力不同，我們稱之為交易能力。在均衡中，中等能力銀行發(fā)現(xiàn)參與中心化市場(chǎng)是最佳選擇。相比之下，由于內(nèi)生互補(bǔ)性，低容量和高容量銀行發(fā)現(xiàn)參與場(chǎng)外交易市場(chǎng)是最佳選擇。也就是說，由于高能力銀行提供的中介服務(wù)，低能力銀行獲得的貿(mào)易條件比集中市場(chǎng)差，但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)更好。高容量銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)比集中市場(chǎng)更差，但從向低容量銀行提供中介服務(wù)中獲利。雖然社交最優(yōu)的參與模式在性質(zhì)上相似，但它規(guī)定更多的客戶遷移到中心化市場(chǎng)，更多的經(jīng)銷商進(jìn)入場(chǎng)外交易市場(chǎng)。

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11．Welfare and Redistribution in Residential Electricity Markets with Solar Power?

太陽能住宅電力市場(chǎng)的福利和再分配

Fabian Feger,?Nicola Pavanini,?Doina Radulescu

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3267–3302,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac005

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An increasing number of households installing solar panels and consuming the energy thus produced raises two challenges for regulators: network financing and vertical equity. We propose alternative tariff and subsidy designs for policymakers to incentivize solar panel adoptions and guarantee that network costs are recovered, while trading off efficiency, equity, and welfare motives. We estimate a structural model of energy demand and solar panel adoption, using a unique matched dataset on energy consumption, prices, income, wealth, solar panel installations, and building characteristics for 165,000 households in Switzerland from 2008 to 2014. Our counterfactuals recommend the optimal solar panel installation cost subsidies and two-part energy tariffs to achieve a solar energy target. We show that, relative to installation cost subsidies, relying on marginal prices to incentivize solar panel adoptions is more cost efficient and progressive across the income distribution, but generates a larger aggregate welfare loss.

越來越多的家庭安裝太陽能電池板并消耗由此產(chǎn)生的能源，這給監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)帶來了兩個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)：網(wǎng)絡(luò)融資和垂直公平。我們?yōu)檎咧贫ㄕ咛岢隽颂娲P(guān)稅和補(bǔ)貼設(shè)計(jì)，以激勵(lì)太陽能電池板的采用并保證網(wǎng)絡(luò)成本得到回收，同時(shí)權(quán)衡效率、公平和福利動(dòng)機(jī)。我們使用2008年至2014年瑞士165，000戶家庭的能源消耗，價(jià)格，收入，財(cái)富，太陽能電池板安裝和建筑特征的獨(dú)特匹配數(shù)據(jù)集，估算了能源需求和太陽能電池板采用的結(jié)構(gòu)模型。我們的反事實(shí)建議最佳的太陽能電池板安裝成本補(bǔ)貼和兩部分能源關(guān)稅，以實(shí)現(xiàn)太陽能目標(biāo)。我們表明，相對(duì)于安裝成本補(bǔ)貼，依靠邊際價(jià)格來激勵(lì)太陽能電池板的采用在整個(gè)收入分配中更具成本效益和進(jìn)步性，但會(huì)產(chǎn)生更大的總福利損失。

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12．Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation?

海堤和高蹺：氣候適應(yīng)的定量宏觀研究

Stephie Fried

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3303–3344,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab099

Can we reduce the damage from climate change by investing in seawalls, stilts, or other forms of adaptation? Focusing on the case of severe storms in the US, I develop a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the interactions between adaptation, federal disaster policy, and climate change. The model departs from the standard climate damage function and incorporates the damage from storms as the realization of idiosyncratic shocks. Using the calibrated model, I infer that adaptation capital comprises approximately 1|$\%$|?of the US capital stock. I find that while the moral hazard effects from disaster aid reduce adaptation in the US economy, federal subsidies for investment in adaptation more than correct for the moral hazard. I introduce climate change into the model as a permanent increase in either or both the severity or probability of storms. Adaptation reduces the damage from this climate change by approximately one-third. Finally, I show that modelling the idiosyncratic risk component of climate damage has quantitatively important implications for adaptation and for the welfare cost of climate change.

我們能否通過投資海堤、高蹺或其他形式的適應(yīng)措施來減少氣候變化造成的損害？專注于美國(guó)嚴(yán)重風(fēng)暴的情況，我開發(fā)了一個(gè)宏觀異構(gòu)代理模型來量化適應(yīng)、聯(lián)邦災(zāi)害政策和氣候變化之間的相互作用。該模型偏離了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的氣候損傷函數(shù)，并將風(fēng)暴造成的損害納入了特質(zhì)沖擊的實(shí)現(xiàn)。使用校準(zhǔn)模型，我推斷適應(yīng)資本約為1|$\%$| 美國(guó)股本。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，雖然救災(zāi)援助的道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)效應(yīng)降低了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的適應(yīng)能力，但聯(lián)邦對(duì)適應(yīng)投資的補(bǔ)貼足以彌補(bǔ)道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我將氣候變化引入模型，作為風(fēng)暴嚴(yán)重程度或概率的永久增加。適應(yīng)將這種氣候變化造成的損害減少了約三分之一。最后，我表明，對(duì)氣候損害的特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成分進(jìn)行建模對(duì)適應(yīng)和氣候變化的福利成本具有定量上的重要意義。

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13．Measuring Unfair Inequality: Reconciling Equality of Opportunity and Freedom from Poverty?

衡量不公平的不平等：調(diào)和機(jī)會(huì)平等與免于貧困的自由

Paul Hufe,?Ravi Kanbur,?Andreas Peichl

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3345–3380,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab101

Empirical evidence on distributional preferences shows that people do not judge inequality as problematic per se but that they take into account the fairness or unfairness of the outcome. This article conceptualizes a view of unfair inequality and introduces a new measure of inequality based on two widely held fairness principles: equality of opportunity and freedom from poverty. It develops a method for decomposing inequality and its trends into an unfair and a fair component. We provide two empirical applications of our measure. First, we analyse the development of inequality in the US from 1969 to 2014 from a fairness perspective. Second, we conduct a corresponding international comparison between the US and 31 European countries in 2010. Our results document that unfair inequality matches the well-documented inequality growth in the US since 1980. This trend is driven by decreases in social mobility, i.e., increasing importance of parental education and occupation for the income of their children. Among the 32 countries of our international comparison, the land of opportunity ranks among the most unfair societies in 2010.

關(guān)于分配偏好的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)表明，人們并不認(rèn)為不平等本身有問題，而是考慮到結(jié)果的公平或不公平。本文概念化了不公平不平等的觀點(diǎn)，并介紹了基于兩個(gè)廣泛持有的公平原則的新不平等衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：機(jī)會(huì)平等和免于貧困的自由。它開發(fā)了一種將不平等及其趨勢(shì)分解為不公平和公平組成部分的方法。我們提供了兩種測(cè)量的實(shí)證應(yīng)用。首先，我們從公平的角度分析了1969年至2014年美國(guó)不平等的發(fā)展。其次，我們對(duì)2010年美國(guó)與31個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的國(guó)際比較。我們的研究結(jié)果證明，不公平的不平等與美國(guó)自1980年以來有據(jù)可查的不平等增長(zhǎng)相匹配。這一趨勢(shì)是由社會(huì)流動(dòng)性的下降推動(dòng)的，即父母的教育和職業(yè)對(duì)其子女收入的重要性日益增加。在我們國(guó)際比較的32個(gè)國(guó)家中，機(jī)會(huì)之地是2010年最不公平的社會(huì)之一。

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14．Globalization, Gender, and the Family?

全球化、性別和家庭

Wolfgang Keller,?Hale Utar

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3381–3409,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac012

Facing the same labour demand shock through imports from China, we show that men and women make different labour market and family adjustments that result in significant long-run gender inequality. The gender gap is driven by the female biological clock. Using population registers and matched employer-employee data from Denmark, we document that especially women in their late 30s, towards the end of their biological clock, decide to have a baby as the shock causes displacement. High-earning women in leadership positions and women who need to acquire new human capital are central because their new employment would require particularly high investments that are incompatible with having a newborn in the short time remaining on the biological clock. While children penalize women in the labour market, we show that due to the biological clock an otherwise gender-neutral shock leads to a gender gap in the labour market.

面對(duì)來自中國(guó)的進(jìn)口帶來的同樣的勞動(dòng)力需求沖擊，我們表明，男性和女性進(jìn)行了不同的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)和家庭調(diào)整，導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的長(zhǎng)期性別不平等。性別差距是由女性生物鐘驅(qū)動(dòng)的。使用來自丹麥的人口登記和匹配的雇主 - 雇員數(shù)據(jù)，我們記錄了特別是30多歲的女性，在生物鐘結(jié)束時(shí)，決定生孩子，因?yàn)樾菘藢?dǎo)致流離失所。擔(dān)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)職務(wù)的高收入婦女和需要獲得新人力資本的婦女是核心，因?yàn)樗齻兊男鹿ぷ餍枰貏e高的投資，這與在生物鐘剩余的短時(shí)間內(nèi)生一個(gè)新生兒是不相容的。雖然兒童在勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上懲罰婦女，但我們表明，由于生物鐘，原本性別中立的沖擊會(huì)導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的性別差距。

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15．The Unavoidability of Low Inflation–Low Output Traps?

Narayana R Kocherlakota

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 3410–3435,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac009

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the monies of the developed world have been unbacked by any formal promise of convertibility. Yet, inflation has typically undershot, not overshot, central bank targets over the past couple decades. The low, while generally positive, inflation rate has (more arguably) been associated with low output and low growth. In this article, I consider these observations through the lens of a class of representative agent rational expectations models with nominal (price-setting) frictions and the possibility of firm entry/exit. I show that for any level of nominal frictions (no matter how small) and for any monetary policy rule that satisfies a set of weak restrictions, there is a large set of equilibria that exhibit permanently low inflation, low output, and low nominal interest rates. These equilibria can only exhibit positive long-run inflation if growth is low and the specification of nominal frictions (i.e. the Phillips curve) takes an unconventional but nonetheless empirically plausible form.

自布雷頓森林貨幣體系崩潰以來，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貨幣一直沒有任何正式的可兌換承諾的支持。然而，在過去幾十年中，通脹通常低于而不是超過央行的目標(biāo)。低通脹率（雖然總體上是正的）與低產(chǎn)出和低增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)。在本文中，我通過一類具有名義（價(jià)格設(shè)定）摩擦和公司進(jìn)入/退出可能性的代表性代理理性預(yù)期模型來考慮這些觀察結(jié)果。我表明，對(duì)于任何水平的名義摩擦（無論多?。┖蜐M足一系列弱限制的任何貨幣政策規(guī)則，都有大量的均衡表現(xiàn)出永久的低通脹、低產(chǎn)出和低名義利率。這些均衡只有在增長(zhǎng)較低且名義摩擦的規(guī)格（即菲利普斯曲線）采取非常規(guī)但經(jīng)驗(yàn)上合理的形式時(shí)才能表現(xiàn)出積極的長(zhǎng)期通貨膨脹。

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