Journal of International Economics2022年第6期

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——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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1.Sovereign spreads and the effects of fiscal austerity

主權(quán)債務(wù)利差和財(cái)政緊縮的影響

Diego Anzoategu

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103658

I analyze the impact of?austerity?on sovereign spreads. To do so I propose a model with strategic?sovereign default?and nominal rigidities, where the government follows fiscal rules, which are estimated from data. I first study theoretical implications and find that?austerity?can increase sovereign spreads, or be self-defeating, only when the decrease in government spending is persistent and the economy is expected to be in a recession with high fiscal multipliers. I then calibrate the model and use it to predict what would have happened to spreads and economic activity if Spain had continued to follow its pre-2010 fiscal rule instead of switching to the austerity track. I find that, relative to the counter-factual, austerity decreased sovereign spreads and debt-to-GDP ratios. Overall, I find that the likelihood of self-defeating austerities depends on the magnitude of fiscal multipliers and?fiscal policy, but it is generally low.

我分析了緊縮政策對(duì)主權(quán)利差的影響。為此，我提出了一個(gè)具有戰(zhàn)略主權(quán)違約和名義剛性的模型，其中政府遵循根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)的財(cái)政規(guī)則。我首先研究了理論含義，發(fā)現(xiàn)緊縮只會(huì)增加主權(quán)利差，或者弄巧成拙，只有當(dāng)政府支出持續(xù)減少時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將陷入高財(cái)政乘數(shù)的衰退。然后，我校準(zhǔn)了模型，并用它來預(yù)測(cè)如果西班牙繼續(xù)遵循2010年之前的財(cái)政規(guī)則而不是轉(zhuǎn)向緊縮軌道，利差和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)會(huì)發(fā)生什么。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，相對(duì)于反事實(shí)，緊縮降低了主權(quán)利差和債務(wù)與GDP的比率?？傮w而言，我發(fā)現(xiàn)自我挫敗的緊縮的可能性取決于財(cái)政乘數(shù)和財(cái)政政策的規(guī)模，但總體上較低。

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2.Macroprudential policy with leakages

存在漏洞的宏觀審慎政策

Julien Bengui ?Javier Bianchi

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103659

We explore how imperfect regulation enforcement affects the design of optimal macroprudential policy. We study an open economy workhorse model of macroprudential regulation motivated by pecuniary externalities. Our analytical characterization shows that imperfect enforcement generates two opposing effects. While tighter regulation leads to higher borrowing by unregulated agents, a “l(fā)eakage effect”, mitigating the increase in fragility calls for “squeezing” regulated agents further. Quantitative simulations show that, overall, a macroprudential policy that accounts for the leakages remains successful at mitigating the vulnerability to financial crises.

我們探討了不完善的監(jiān)管執(zhí)行如何影響最優(yōu)宏觀審慎政策的設(shè)計(jì)。我們研究了以貨幣外部性為動(dòng)機(jī)的宏觀審慎監(jiān)管的開放經(jīng)濟(jì)主力模型。我們的分析表征表明，不完美的執(zhí)行會(huì)產(chǎn)生兩種相反的效果。雖然更嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管導(dǎo)致不受監(jiān)管的代理人增加借款，但“泄漏效應(yīng)”，減輕脆弱性的增加要求進(jìn)一步“擠壓”受監(jiān)管的代理人。定量模擬表明，總體而言，解釋滲漏的宏觀審慎政策在減輕金融危機(jī)的脆弱性方面仍然成功。

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3.Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises

儲(chǔ)備積累、增長(zhǎng)和金融危機(jī)

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GianlucaBenigno ?LucaFornaro? MartinWolf

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103660

We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the?international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate?international reserves?and receive net private inflows. We study a two-sector, tradable and non-tradable,?small open economy. There is a growth externality in the tradable sector and agents have imperfect access to?international financial markets. By accumulating foreign reserves, the government induces a?real exchange rate?depreciation and a reallocation of production towards the tradable sector that boosts growth. Financial frictions generate imperfect substitutability between private and public debt flows so that private agents do not perfectly offset the government policy. The possibility of using reserves to provide liquidity during crises amplifies the positive impact of reserve accumulation on growth. The optimal reserve management entails a fast rate of reserve accumulation, as well as higher growth and larger current account surpluses compared to the economy with no policy intervention.

我們提出了一個(gè)模型，再現(xiàn)了國際貨幣體系的兩個(gè)突出事實(shí)：快速增長(zhǎng)的新興國家i）經(jīng)常賬戶盈余，ii）積累國際儲(chǔ)備并獲得凈私人流入。我們研究?jī)蓚€(gè)部門，可貿(mào)易和非貿(mào)易，小型開放經(jīng)濟(jì)?？少Q(mào)易部門存在增長(zhǎng)外部性，代理商進(jìn)入國際金融市場(chǎng)的機(jī)會(huì)并不完善。通過積累外匯儲(chǔ)備，政府誘導(dǎo)實(shí)際匯率貶值，并將生產(chǎn)重新分配給促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)的可貿(mào)易部門。金融摩擦導(dǎo)致私人和公共債務(wù)流動(dòng)之間的可替代性不完善，因此私人代理人無法完美地抵消政府政策。在危機(jī)期間使用儲(chǔ)備提供流動(dòng)性的可能性放大了儲(chǔ)備積累對(duì)增長(zhǎng)的積極影響。與沒有政策干預(yù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)相比，最佳儲(chǔ)備管理需要快速的儲(chǔ)備積累，以及更高的增長(zhǎng)和更大的經(jīng)常賬戶盈余。

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4.Are collateral-constraint models ready for macroprudential policy design?

抵押約束模型是否為宏觀審慎政策設(shè)計(jì)做好了準(zhǔn)備？

PabloOttonello? Diego J.Perez? PaoloVarrasoc

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103650

We study the design of macroprudential policies based on quantitative collateral-constraint models. We show that the desirability of macroprudential policies critically depends on the specific form of collateral used in debt contracts: While inefficiencies arise when current prices affect collateral—a frequent benchmark used to guide policies—they do not when only future prices affect collateral. Since the?microfoundations?and quantitative predictions of models with future-price collateral constraints do not appear less plausible than those using current prices, we conclude that additional empirical research on whether and how contract design is variant to policy is important for the use of these models in macroprudential policy design.

我們研究了基于定量抵押約束模型的宏觀審慎政策設(shè)計(jì)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，宏觀審慎政策的可取性在很大程度上取決于債務(wù)合同中使用的抵押品的具體形式：雖然當(dāng)當(dāng)前價(jià)格影響抵押品（用于指導(dǎo)政策的常用基準(zhǔn)）時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)效率低下，但當(dāng)只有未來價(jià)格影響抵押品時(shí)，效率低下就不會(huì)出現(xiàn)。由于具有未來價(jià)格抵押約束的模型的微觀基礎(chǔ)和定量預(yù)測(cè)似乎并不比使用當(dāng)前價(jià)格的模型更合理，因此我們得出結(jié)論，關(guān)于合同設(shè)計(jì)是否以及如何與政策不同進(jìn)行額外的實(shí)證研究對(duì)于在宏觀審慎政策設(shè)計(jì)中使用這些模型非常重要。

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5.Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy

資本管制、國內(nèi)宏觀審慎政策和貨幣政策的銀行放貸渠道

Andrea Fabiania? Martha López Pi?erosb? José-Luis Peydróc? Paul E.Sotod

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103677

We study how?capital controls?and domestic macroprudential policy tame credit supply booms, either directly or by enhancing the local bank-lending channel of?monetary policy. We exploit credit registry data and the introduction of?capital controls?on?foreign exchange?(FX) debt inflows and increase of?reserve requirements?on domestic bank deposits in Colombia during a boom. We find that capital controls strengthen the bank-lending channel. Increasing the local?monetary policy?rate widens the interest rate differential with the U.S.; hence, relatively more FX-indebted banks carry-trade cheap FX-funds with expensive peso lending, especially towards riskier firms. Capital controls tax FX-debt and break the carry-trade. Differently, raising?reserve requirements?on domestic deposits directly reduces credit supply, particularly for riskier firms, rather than enhancing the bank-lending channel. Importantly, banks differentially finance credit with domestic vis-à-vis FX-financing; hence, capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy complementarily mitigate the credit boom and related bank risk-taking.

我們研究了資本管制和國內(nèi)宏觀審慎政策如何直接或通過加強(qiáng)當(dāng)?shù)劂y行貸款貨幣政策渠道來抑制信貸供應(yīng)繁榮。我們利用信用登記數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)外匯（FX）債務(wù)流入? 實(shí)行資本管制，并在繁榮時(shí)期提高哥倫比亞國內(nèi)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金要求。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，資本管制加強(qiáng)了銀行貸款渠道。提高當(dāng)?shù)刎泿耪呃蕯U(kuò)大了與美國的利差;因此，相對(duì)更多的外匯負(fù)債銀行用昂貴的比索貸款交易廉價(jià)的外匯基金，特別是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的公司。資本管制對(duì)外匯債務(wù)征稅并打破套利交易。不同的是，提高國內(nèi)存款準(zhǔn)備金率直接減少了信貸供應(yīng)，特別是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的企業(yè)而言，而不是改善了銀行貸款渠道。重要的是，銀行通過國內(nèi)融資與外匯融資對(duì)信貸進(jìn)行差異化融資;因此，資本管制和國內(nèi)宏觀審慎政策相輔相成地緩解了信貸繁榮和相關(guān)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。

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6.Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops

突然停止時(shí)的生產(chǎn)率和貿(mào)易動(dòng)態(tài)

Felipe Benguriaa? Hidehiko Matsumotob? Felipe Saffiec

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103631

This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during financial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and export markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms’ product portfolios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent?real exchange rate?depreciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.

本文提出了一個(gè)框架，以共同研究金融危機(jī)期間的生產(chǎn)率和貿(mào)易動(dòng)態(tài)。危機(jī)造成的持續(xù)產(chǎn)出損失是由生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)放緩造成的，而生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)放緩是由國內(nèi)和出口市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入和退出利潤的變化決定的。我們使用公司產(chǎn)品組合的獨(dú)特?cái)?shù)據(jù)校準(zhǔn)和驗(yàn)證模型，發(fā)現(xiàn)它們與1998年智利突然停止期間各種利潤率的行為非常匹配。我們分解了突然停止的福利成本的來源，發(fā)現(xiàn)30%是由于生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的下降。反過來，生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)放緩主要是由于企業(yè)和產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的速度較慢，而實(shí)際匯率持續(xù)貶值促使幸存下來的企業(yè)將其產(chǎn)品組合向出口市場(chǎng)傾斜，從而推動(dòng)危機(jī)后生產(chǎn)率的復(fù)蘇。

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7.International reserves and central bank independence

國際儲(chǔ)備和中央銀行獨(dú)立性

Agustin Samano

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103674

Motivated by a positive correlation between reserve accumulation and the widespread adoption of?central bank independence?legislation in Latin America, this paper develops a?sovereign default?model with an independent central bank that can accumulate a risk-free foreign asset. I show that if the central bank is more patient than the government and as patient as households are, in equilibrium, the government issues more debt than what is socially optimal, and the central bank accumulates reserves to undo government over-borrowing. A key insight is that the government can issue more debt for any level of reserves but chooses not to because doing so would increase spreads, making it more costly to borrow. Quantitatively, I find that the lack of perfect coordination between the central bank and the government can rationalize levels of reserves and debt close to the observed levels in emerging economies.

基于準(zhǔn)備金積累與拉美地區(qū)央行獨(dú)立立法的廣泛采用呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系，本文開發(fā)了一種主權(quán)違約模型，該模型具有獨(dú)立的中央銀行，可以積累無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的外國資產(chǎn)。我表明，如果中央銀行比政府更有耐心，像家庭一樣有耐心，那么在均衡狀態(tài)下，政府發(fā)行的債務(wù)比社會(huì)最優(yōu)的債務(wù)多，中央銀行積累儲(chǔ)備以消除政府的過度借貸。一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的見解是，政府可以為任何水平的儲(chǔ)備發(fā)行更多債務(wù)，但選擇不這樣做，因?yàn)檫@樣做會(huì)增加利差，使借貸成本更高。從數(shù)量上講，我發(fā)現(xiàn)央行和政府之間缺乏完美的協(xié)調(diào)可以使準(zhǔn)備金和債務(wù)水平合理化，接近新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的觀察水平。

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8.The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach

宏觀審慎政策的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)——來自敘事方法的證據(jù)

Diego Rojas ?Carlos Vegh ?Guillermo Vuletin

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103644

We analyze the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy – in the form of legal?reserve requirements?– in three Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay). To correctly identify innovations in changes in legal?reserve requirements, we develop a narrative approach that classifies each change into endogenous or exogenous to the business cycle. We show that this distinction is critical in understanding the macroeconomic effects of reserve requirements. In particular, we show that output falls in response to exogenous increases in legal reserve requirements but is not affected when using all changes and relying on traditional time-identifying strategies. This bias reflects the practical relevance of the misidentification of endogenous countercyclical changes in reserve

我們分析了三個(gè)拉丁美洲國家（阿根廷、巴西和烏拉圭）宏觀審慎政策（以法定儲(chǔ)備要求的形式）的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。為了正確識(shí)別法定儲(chǔ)備要求變化中的創(chuàng)新，我們開發(fā)了一種敘述方法，將每個(gè)變化分為商業(yè)周期的內(nèi)生或外生。我們表明，這種區(qū)別對(duì)于理解儲(chǔ)備金要求的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響至關(guān)重要。特別是，我們表明，產(chǎn)出會(huì)隨著法定儲(chǔ)備要求的外部增加而下降，但在使用所有變化并依賴傳統(tǒng)的時(shí)間識(shí)別策略時(shí)不會(huì)受到影響。這種偏差反映了錯(cuò)誤識(shí)別儲(chǔ)備中內(nèi)源性反周期變化的實(shí)際相關(guān)性。

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9.Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?

與中國的貿(mào)易自由化是否影響了美國大選？

YiChe? YiLu? Justin R.Pierce ?Peter K.Schott ?ZhigangTao

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103652

We examine election voting and legislators’ roll-call votes in the United States over a twenty-five year period. Voters in areas more exposed to trade liberalization with China in 2000 subsequently shift their support toward Democrats, relative to the 1990s, though this boost for Democrats wanes after the rise of the Tea Party in 2010. House members’ votes in Congress rationalize these trends, with Democratic representatives disproportionately supporting protection during the early 2000s. Together, these results imply that voters in areas subject to higher import competition shifted votes toward the party more likely to restrict trade.

我們研究了美國二十五年來的選舉投票和立法者的唱票。與1990年代相比，2000年與中國貿(mào)易自由化影響較大的地區(qū)的選民隨后將支持轉(zhuǎn)向民主黨，盡管這種對(duì)民主黨的推動(dòng)力在2010年茶黨崛起后減弱。眾議院議員在國會(huì)的投票使這些趨勢(shì)合理化，民主黨代表在2000年代初不成比例地支持保護(hù)?？傊?，這些結(jié)果表明，進(jìn)口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇地區(qū)的選民將選票轉(zhuǎn)向更有可能限制貿(mào)易的政黨。

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10.Skilled immigration, firms, and policy

技術(shù)移民、公司和政策

Mishita Mehra ?Hewei Shen

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103662

We develop a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with skilled immigration that focuses on the role of firms. The model is consistent with data on firm demand for foreign labor and firm size in the United States. Monopolistically competitive firms in the skill-intensive sector differ in productivity and a subset of relatively larger firms hire foreign workers subject to skilled immigration policies that are similar to the United States: Firms face hiring costs and there is an immigration cap that binds if the aggregate demand for foreign workers exceeds a quota. A binding immigration cap reduces firms’ demand for foreign skilled workers and, quantitatively, accounts for 16.82% of the hiring distortion in the decentralized equilibrium when compared to the first-best allocation. We evaluate the effects of different immigration cap changes and quantify the welfare implications for domestic households.

我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)雙部門動(dòng)態(tài)一般均衡模型，其中包含技術(shù)移民，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注公司的作用。該模型與美國企業(yè)對(duì)外國勞動(dòng)力的需求和企業(yè)規(guī)模的數(shù)據(jù)一致。技能密集型行業(yè)中具有壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的公司在生產(chǎn)率方面存在差異，一部分相對(duì)較大的公司雇用受與美國類似的技術(shù)移民政策約束的外國工人：公司面臨招聘成本，如果對(duì)外國工人的總需求超過配額，則存在移民上限。具有約束力的移民上限降低了企業(yè)對(duì)外國技術(shù)工人的需求，從數(shù)量上講，與第一最佳分配相比，占分散均衡中招聘扭曲的16.82%。我們?cè)u(píng)估不同移民上限變化的影響，并量化對(duì)家庭的福利影響。

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11.Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk

自然災(zāi)害、氣候變化和主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Enrico Mallucci

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103672

I investigate how natural disasters can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger?sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that hurricane risk reduces governments’ ability to issue debt and depresses welfare. Climate change will further restrict governments’ access to financial markets and weigh on welfare. “Disaster clauses”, especially those allowing governments to write off debt, improve governments’ borrowing terms and mitigate the impact of climate change on governments’ access to financial markets and households’ welfare.

我研究了自然災(zāi)害如何加劇財(cái)政脆弱性并引發(fā)主權(quán)違約。我擴(kuò)展了一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的主權(quán)違約模型，以包括災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并將其校準(zhǔn)到經(jīng)常遭受颶風(fēng)襲擊的七個(gè)加勒比國家的樣本。我發(fā)現(xiàn)颶風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低了政府發(fā)行債務(wù)的能力，并抑制了福利。氣候變化將進(jìn)一步限制政府進(jìn)入金融市場(chǎng)，并對(duì)福利造成壓力?！盀?zāi)難條款”，特別是那些允許政府注銷債務(wù)、改善政府借款條件和減輕氣候變化對(duì)政府進(jìn)入金融市場(chǎng)和家庭福利的影響的條款。

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12.Assessing the impact of policy and regulation interventions in European sovereign credit risk networks: What worked best?

評(píng)估政策和監(jiān)管干預(yù)對(duì)歐洲主權(quán)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響：什么效果最好？

Rebekka Buse ?Melanie Schienle ?J?rg Urban

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103673

We study the impact of changes in regulations and policy interventions on systemic risk among European sovereign entities measured as volatility?spillovers?in credit risk markets. With our unique intraday?CDS?dataset, the effectiveness of closely subsequent events can be assessed, and interventions with significant changes in network cross-effects can be discerned by appropriate bootstrap confidence intervals. We show that it was mainly regulatory changes such as the ban of trading naked sovereign?CDS?in 2012 as well as the new ISDA regulations in 2014 which were most effective in reducing systemic risk. In comparison, the effect of policy interventions was minor and generally not sustainable. Their impact was only significant when they were implemented for the first time and targeted more than one country. For the volatility spillover channels, we generally find balanced networks with no fragmentation over time.

我們研究了法規(guī)變化和政策干預(yù)對(duì)歐洲主權(quán)實(shí)體系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，以信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性溢出效應(yīng)來衡量。利用我們獨(dú)特的日內(nèi)CDS數(shù)據(jù)集，可以評(píng)估密切后續(xù)事件的有效性，并且可以通過適當(dāng)?shù)淖耘e置信區(qū)間來識(shí)別網(wǎng)絡(luò)交叉效應(yīng)發(fā)生重大變化的干預(yù)措施。我們表明，主要是監(jiān)管變化，如 ?2012年禁止交易裸主權(quán)CDS以及2014年新的ISDA法規(guī)，在降低系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面最為有效。相比之下，政策干預(yù)的效果很小，而且一般不可持續(xù)。只有首次實(shí)施并針對(duì)不止一個(gè)國家時(shí)，其影響才具有重大意義。對(duì)于波動(dòng)性溢出渠道，我們通常會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著時(shí)間的推移沒有碎片化的平衡網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

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13.Does a currency union need a capital market union?

Joseba Martinez ?Thomas Philippon ?Markus Sihvonen

We compare risk sharing in response to demand and supply shocks in four types of currency unions: segmented markets; a money market union; a capital market union; and complete financial markets. We show that a money market union is efficient at sharing domestic demand shocks (deleveraging, fiscal consolidation), while a capital market union is necessary to share supply shocks (productivity and quality shocks). In a numerical exercise, we find that the welfare gain of moving from segmented markets to a money market union is of roughly similar magnitude to that of moving from a money market to a capital market union.

我們比較了四種類型的貨幣聯(lián)盟中應(yīng)對(duì)需求和供應(yīng)沖擊的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)：細(xì)分市場(chǎng);貨幣市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟;資本市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟;和完整的金融市場(chǎng)。我們表明，貨幣市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟在分享內(nèi)需沖擊（去杠桿化、財(cái)政整頓）方面是有效的，而資本市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟在分享供應(yīng)沖擊（生產(chǎn)率和質(zhì)量沖擊）方面是必要的。在數(shù)值練習(xí)中，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)從細(xì)分市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向貨幣市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟的福利收益與從貨幣市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向資本市場(chǎng)聯(lián)盟的福利收益大致相似。

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14.Economic and policy uncertainty: Aggregate export dynamics and the value of agreements

經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策不確定性：總體出口動(dòng)態(tài)和協(xié)議價(jià)值

Jeronimo Carballo? Kyle? Handley? Nuno? Lim?o

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103661

We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection, and their interaction dampens export investment. Trade agreements can mitigate uncertainty and the probability of policy uncertainty shocks. We use firm data from 2003–2011 to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics. These facts include a differentially lower export growth to non-preferential markets driven by the extensive margin at the start of the Great Trade Collapse. The structural model can explain this differential as a consequence of a shock to demand uncertainty. The shock was three times larger for non-preferential markets than preferential ones and it was later reversed, which is consistent with the timing of trade war fears in the crisis.

我們研究了動(dòng)態(tài)、異質(zhì)企業(yè)模型中經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策不確定性的相互作用。外國收入、貿(mào)易保護(hù)及其相互作用的不確定性抑制了出口投資。貿(mào)易協(xié)定可以減輕不確定性和政策不確定性沖擊的可能性。我們使用2003-2011年的公司數(shù)據(jù)來建立有關(guān)美國出口動(dòng)態(tài)的新事實(shí)。這些事實(shí)包括對(duì)非優(yōu)惠市場(chǎng)的出口增長(zhǎng)差異較低，這是由貿(mào)易大崩潰開始時(shí)的巨大利潤推動(dòng)的。結(jié)構(gòu)模型可以將這種差異解釋為需求不確定性沖擊的結(jié)果。非優(yōu)惠市場(chǎng)的沖擊是優(yōu)惠市場(chǎng)的三倍，后來又被逆轉(zhuǎn)，這與危機(jī)中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)擔(dān)憂的時(shí)間一致。

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15.Total factor productivity growth at the firm-level: The effects of capital account liberalization

企業(yè)層面的全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)：資本賬戶自由化的影響

Xiang Li ?Dan Su

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103676

This study provides firm-level evidence on the effect of capital account liberalization on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We find that a one?standard deviation?increase in the capital account openness indicator constructed by?Fernández et al. (2016)?is significantly associated with a 0.18?standard deviation?increase in firms’ TFP growth rates. The productivity-enhancing effects are stronger for sectors with higher external finance dependence and capital-skill complementarity, and are persistent five years after liberalization. Moreover, we show that potential transmission mechanisms include improved financing conditions, greater skilled labor utilization, and technology upgrades. Finally, we document heterogeneous effects across firm size and tradability, and threshold effects with respect to the country's institutional quality.

本研究為資本賬戶自由化對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率（TFP）增長(zhǎng)的影響提供了企業(yè)層面的證據(jù)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，F(xiàn)ernández et al.（2016）構(gòu)建的資本賬戶開放度指標(biāo)每增加一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差，與企業(yè)TFP增長(zhǎng)率增加0.18個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差顯著相關(guān)。對(duì)于對(duì)外部資金依賴程度較高和資本技能互補(bǔ)性的部門，提高生產(chǎn)率的效果更強(qiáng)，而且在自由化五年后持續(xù)存在。此外，我們表明，潛在的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制包括改善融資條件、提高熟練勞動(dòng)力利用率和技術(shù)升級(jí)。最后，我們記錄了企業(yè)規(guī)模和可交易性的異質(zhì)效應(yīng)，以及與國家制度質(zhì)量有關(guān)的閾值效應(yīng)。

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16.Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel

激增和不穩(wěn)定：成熟度縮短通道

Xiang Li Dan Su

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103679

Capital inflow?surges destabilize the economy through a maturity shortening mechanism. The underlying reason is that firms have incentives to redeem their debt on demand to accommodate the potential liquidity needs of global investors, which makes international borrowing endogenously fragile. Based on a theoretical model and empirical evidence at both the firm and macro levels, our main findings are twofold. First, a significant association exists between surges and shortened corporate debt maturity, especially for firms with foreign bank relationships and higher redeployability. Second, the probability of a crisis following surges with a flattened yield curve is significantly higher than that following surges without one. Our study suggests that debt maturity is the key to understand the financial instability consequences of capital inflow bonanzas.

資本流入激增通過期限縮短機(jī)制破壞了經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定。根本原因是企業(yè)有動(dòng)力按需贖回債務(wù)，以適應(yīng)全球投資者的潛在流動(dòng)性需求，這使得國際借款內(nèi)生脆弱?；谄髽I(yè)和宏觀層面的理論模型和經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)，我們的主要發(fā)現(xiàn)是雙重的。首先，激增與公司債務(wù)期限縮短之間存在重要關(guān)聯(lián)，特別是對(duì)于與外國銀行有關(guān)系和更高可重新部署性的公司而言。其次，收益率曲線平坦的浪涌后發(fā)生危機(jī)的可能性明顯高于沒有收益率曲線的浪高。我們的研究表明，債務(wù)到期是理解資本流入的金融不穩(wěn)定后果的關(guān)鍵。

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17.Labor share, foreign demand and superstar exporters

勞動(dòng)力份額、外國需求和超級(jí)明星出口商

Ludovic Panon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103678

This paper proposes a new determinant of labor share changes. Using micro-data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters over 1995–2007, I show that a measure of export demand growth exogenous to firm-level outcomes drives down the manufacturing labor share through two effects. First, foreign demand shocks allow low-labor share, highly internationalized “superstar” exporters to grow disproportionately more. Second, foreign demand growth decreases the labor share of exporters and this effect is stronger for larger exporters. Both effects generate a sizable labor share decline, regardless of aggregate labor share dynamics. A simple heterogeneous-firm model with endogenous markups rationalizes my empirical results. Overall, these findings provide direct causal evidence of a “winner take most” phenomenon induced by trade globalization and emphasize the role of increased competition on international markets for labor share changes.

本文提出了一個(gè)新的勞動(dòng)收入占比變化的決定因素。利用1995-2007年法國制造業(yè)出口商的微觀數(shù)據(jù)，我證明了，企業(yè)層面產(chǎn)出的外生出口需求增長(zhǎng)通過兩個(gè)效應(yīng)壓低了制造業(yè)勞動(dòng)收入占比。首先，國外需求的沖擊使得低勞動(dòng)收入占比、高度國際化的“超級(jí)明星”出口商的增長(zhǎng)更加不成比例。其次，外國需求增長(zhǎng)降低了出口商的勞動(dòng)收入占比，這種影響對(duì)較大的出口商更強(qiáng)。無論總體勞動(dòng)收入占比動(dòng)態(tài)如何，這兩種影響都會(huì)導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)收入占比大幅下降。一個(gè)具有內(nèi)生加成的簡(jiǎn)單異質(zhì)企業(yè)模型使我的實(shí)證結(jié)果合理化?？偟膩碚f，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)為貿(mào)易全球化引發(fā)的“贏者通吃”現(xiàn)象提供了直接的因果證據(jù)，并強(qiáng)調(diào)了國際市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇對(duì)勞動(dòng)份額變化的作用。

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18.Cross-border interbank liquidity, crises, and monetary policy

Puriya Abbassi? Falk Br?uning? Falko Fecht? José-Luis Peydró

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103657

We analyze how the Lehman and sovereign crises affect cross-border interbank liquidity, exploiting euro-area proprietary interbank data, crisis and monetary shocks, and loan terms to the same borrower during the same day by domestic versus foreign lenders. Crisis shocks reduce the supply of cross-border liquidity, with stronger volume than pricing effects. On the extensive margin, results suggest that the cross-border?credit crunch?is independent of borrower quality, while—on the intensive margin—riskier borrower banks suffer more. Moreover, the cross-border liquidity crunch is substantially stronger for term loans, and weaker for foreign lender banks that have a subsidiary in the same country than the borrower. Finally, nonstandard?monetary policy?improves interbank liquidity, but without fostering strong re-integration of cross-border?interbank markets.

我們分析了雷曼兄弟危機(jī)和主權(quán)危機(jī)如何影響跨境銀行間流動(dòng)性，利用歐元區(qū)專有銀行間數(shù)據(jù)、危機(jī)和貨幣沖擊，以及同一天內(nèi)國內(nèi)和外國銀行對(duì)同一借款人的貸款條款。危機(jī)沖擊減少了跨境流動(dòng)性的供應(yīng)，其數(shù)量效應(yīng)大于定價(jià)效應(yīng)。在擴(kuò)展邊際上，結(jié)果表明跨境信貸緊縮與借款人質(zhì)量無關(guān)，而在集約邊際上，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的借款人銀行遭受的損失更大。此外，對(duì)于定期貸款而言，跨境流動(dòng)性緊縮要嚴(yán)重得多，而對(duì)于在同一國家設(shè)有子公司的外國貸款銀行而言，跨境流動(dòng)性緊縮要弱于借款人。最后，非標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣政策改善了銀行間流動(dòng)性，但沒有促進(jìn)跨境銀行間市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁重新整合。

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19.Cross-border interbank liquidity, crises, and monetary policy

跨境銀行間流動(dòng)性、危機(jī)與貨幣政策

Puriya Abbassi? Falk Br?uning? Falko Fecht? José-Luis? Peydród

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103657

We analyze how the Lehman and sovereign crises affect cross-border interbank liquidity, exploiting euro-area proprietary interbank data, crisis and monetary shocks, and loan terms to the same borrower during the same day by domestic versus foreign lenders. Crisis shocks reduce the supply of cross-border liquidity, with stronger volume than pricing effects. On the extensive margin, results suggest that the cross-border?credit crunch?is independent of borrower quality, while—on the intensive margin—riskier borrower banks suffer more. Moreover, the cross-border liquidity crunch is substantially stronger for term loans, and weaker for foreign lender banks that have a subsidiary in the same country than the borrower. Finally, nonstandard?monetary policy?improves interbank liquidity, but without fostering strong re-integration of cross-border?interbank markets.

我們分析了雷曼兄弟危機(jī)和主權(quán)危機(jī)如何影響跨境銀行間流動(dòng)性，利用歐元區(qū)專有銀行間數(shù)據(jù)、危機(jī)和貨幣沖擊，以及同一天內(nèi)國內(nèi)和外國銀行對(duì)同一借款人的貸款條款。危機(jī)沖擊減少了跨境流動(dòng)性的供應(yīng)，其數(shù)量效應(yīng)大于定價(jià)效應(yīng)。在廣泛邊際上，結(jié)果表明跨境信貸緊縮與借款人質(zhì)量無關(guān)，而在密集邊際上，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的借款人銀行遭受的損失更大。此外，對(duì)于定期貸款而言，跨境流動(dòng)性緊縮要嚴(yán)重得多，而對(duì)于在同一國家設(shè)有子公司的外國貸款銀行而言，跨境流動(dòng)性緊縮要弱于借款人。最后，非標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣政策改善了銀行間流動(dòng)性，但沒有促進(jìn)跨境銀行間市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁重新整合。

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20.Non-homothetic sudden stops

非同位性突然停止

Eugenio Rojas? Felipe Saffie

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103680

The expenditure elasticity of the demand for nontradable goods is higher than the one for tradable goods. We extend the?small open economy?model of Sudden Stops of?Bianchi (2011)?allowing for non-homothetic preferences to generate this difference. Analytic results for an endowment economy show that, during crises, the non-homotheticity amplifies the decrease in the demand for the nontradable good, triggering a sharper deflation spiral that ultimately leads to a more severe current account reversal. The amplified pecuniary externality calls for more aggressive debt taxes. An extended version of the model with production and permanent productivity shocks shows that non-homothetic preferences can also amplify the credit booms that precede Sudden Stops. The amplification is particularly large when the consumption boom is biased toward nontradable goods. Macroprudential policy shows, not only quantitative, but also qualitative differences in its reaction to shocks under preference non homotheticity.

非貿(mào)易商品需求的支出彈性高于貿(mào)易商品需求的支出彈性。我們擴(kuò)展了Bianchi(2011)的“突然停止”(Sudden Stops)的小型開放經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，允許非同類偏好產(chǎn)生這種差異。對(duì)稟賦經(jīng)濟(jì)體的分析結(jié)果顯示，在危機(jī)期間，非同質(zhì)性放大了對(duì)不可貿(mào)易商品的需求下降，引發(fā)更劇烈的通縮螺旋，最終導(dǎo)致更嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)常賬戶逆轉(zhuǎn)。放大的經(jīng)濟(jì)外部性要求征收更激進(jìn)的債務(wù)稅。該模型的擴(kuò)展版本包含了生產(chǎn)和永久生產(chǎn)率沖擊，結(jié)果顯示，非同類偏好也會(huì)放大“突然停止”之前的信貸繁榮。當(dāng)消費(fèi)熱潮偏向于非貿(mào)易商品時(shí)，這種放大效應(yīng)尤其大。在偏好非同質(zhì)性條件下，宏觀審慎政策對(duì)沖擊的反應(yīng)不僅表現(xiàn)出數(shù)量上的差異，而且表現(xiàn)出質(zhì)量上的差異。

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21.Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate

預(yù)防與重商主義:儲(chǔ)備積累、資本管制和實(shí)際匯率

Woo Jin Choi ??Alan M.Taylor

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103649

We document a new international stylized fact on the relationship between external wealth,?capital controls, and the?real exchange rate. We first re-confirm that the real exchange rate appreciates when external asset holdings increase, all else equal, a central mechanism in international economics. However, we find that increases in publicly held external assets (reserves) are associated with depreciation, especially if combined with high capital controls. Reserve accumulation is also associated with a larger trade surplus, and higher GDP and TFP growth, in countries with high capital controls. The results hold using an?instrumental variable?for reserves based on commodity export surrender requirements. A simple rationale is presented to account for the new fact: combined reserves and capital controls can affect trade balances via undervaluation (mercantilist motive), while reserve increases without controls can insure against crises (precautionary motive) independently of real exchange rates.

我們記錄了一個(gè)關(guān)于外部財(cái)富、資本管制和實(shí)際匯率之間關(guān)系的新的國際風(fēng)格化事實(shí)。我們首先再次確認(rèn)，在其他條件相同的情況下，當(dāng)外部資產(chǎn)持有量增加時(shí)，實(shí)際匯率會(huì)升值，這是國際經(jīng)濟(jì)中的一個(gè)核心機(jī)制。然而，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，公共持有的外部資產(chǎn)(儲(chǔ)備)的增加與貶值有關(guān)，尤其是在與高資本管制相結(jié)合的情況下。在實(shí)行高資本管制的國家，外匯儲(chǔ)備積累還與較大的貿(mào)易順差、較高的GDP和TFP增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)。以商品出口退讓要求為基礎(chǔ)，使用工具變量計(jì)算外匯儲(chǔ)備的結(jié)果是成立的。本文提出了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的理由來解釋這一新事實(shí):儲(chǔ)備和資本管制相結(jié)合可以通過低估影響貿(mào)易平衡(重商主義動(dòng)機(jī))，而不加管制的儲(chǔ)備增加可以在不依賴實(shí)際匯率的情況下防范危機(jī)(預(yù)防動(dòng)機(jī))。

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22.Trade costs, home bias and the unequal gains from trade

貿(mào)易成本、本國偏好和貿(mào)易收益的不平等

Dorothee Hillrichs? GonzagueVannoorenberghe

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103684

International trade?affects consumption prices, with potentially different impacts on poor and rich consumers. We study these unequal impacts building on the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) gravity model of Fajgelbaum and Khandelwal (2016). We augment the original model with a home bias in tastes and allow for trade costs to differ for domestic and foreign trade. In this setup, we show that the structural parameters governing the welfare gains are highly sensitive to the determinants of spending on domestic goods. This extension largely weakens the pro-poor bias of trade which leads us to conclude that the AIDS gravity framework does not generate robust results about the distributive effects of trade within countries.

國際貿(mào)易影響消費(fèi)價(jià)格，對(duì)窮國和富國消費(fèi)者的影響可能不同。我們基于Fajgelbaum和Khandelwal(2016)的幾乎理想需求系統(tǒng)(AIDS)重力模型研究了這些不平等的影響。我們?cè)谠心Ｐ椭屑尤肓藝鴥?nèi)偏好，并考慮到國內(nèi)和國外貿(mào)易的貿(mào)易成本不同。在這種情況下，我們表明，支配福利收益的結(jié)構(gòu)參數(shù)對(duì)國內(nèi)商品支出的決定因素高度敏感。這一延伸在很大程度上削弱了貿(mào)易對(duì)窮人有利的偏見，這使我們得出結(jié)論，艾滋病引力框架不能產(chǎn)生關(guān)于國家內(nèi)部貿(mào)易分配效應(yīng)的有力結(jié)果。

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22.Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers

中央銀行信息效應(yīng)與跨大西洋溢出效應(yīng)

Marek Jarociński

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103683

News about the economy contained in a central bank announcement can affect public expectations. This paper shows, using both event studies and vector autoregressions, that such central bank information effects are an important channel of the transatlantic spillover of monetary policy. They account for a part of the co-movement of German and US government bond yields around Fed policy announcements, and for most of this co-movement around ECB policy announcements. Consequently, ECB surprise interest rate hikes that spill over to US government bond yields reflect good news and are followed on average by easier, not tighter, US financial conditions and an economic expansion. In fact, they spill over similarly as positive European macroeconomic news surprises. By contrast, pure ECB “monetary policy shocks” do not spill over, in part because of the offsetting Fed policy stance.

央行聲明中包含的有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的消息會(huì)影響公眾的預(yù)期。本文通過事件研究和向量自回歸分析表明，央行信息效應(yīng)是貨幣政策跨大西洋溢出效應(yīng)的重要渠道。它們?cè)诘聡兔绹鴩鴤找媛蕠@美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策公告的聯(lián)動(dòng)中占了一部分，在圍繞歐洲央行政策公告的聯(lián)動(dòng)中占了大部分。因此，歐洲央行出人意料的加息會(huì)影響到美國國債收益率，這反映出好消息，平均而言，緊隨其后的是美國金融狀況的放松(而非收緊)和經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張。事實(shí)上，歐洲宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的利好消息出乎意料，也會(huì)帶來同樣的影響。相比之下，純粹的歐洲央行“貨幣政策沖擊”不會(huì)外溢，部分原因是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策立場(chǎng)起到了抵消作用。

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23.Interest rate uncertainty and sovereign default risk

利率不確定性與主權(quán)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Alok Johri? Shahed Khan ?CésarSosa-Padilla

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103681

Empirical studies suggest that fluctuations in the level and volatility of the world?interest rate?affect sovereign spreads in emerging economies. We incorporate an estimated time-varying process for the world?interest rate?(with both level and volatility shocks) into a model of?sovereign default?calibrated to a panel of emerging economies. Time variation in the world interest rate interacts with default incentives in the model and leads to state contingent effects similar to the empirical literature. On average, in response to a rise in the world interest rate the model delivers a 1.4 times increase in the spread. The volatility state has a major impact on this average – the increase in spreads is much larger in high volatility states. Moreover, we show that fluctuations in the world interest rate can generate considerable co-movement in sovereign yields across nations, as seen in the data.

實(shí)證研究表明，世界利率水平的波動(dòng)和波動(dòng)影響到新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的主權(quán)利差。我們將一個(gè)估計(jì)的全球利率時(shí)變過程(包括水平和波動(dòng)性沖擊)納入一個(gè)主權(quán)違約模型，以一組新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體為基準(zhǔn)。世界利率的時(shí)間變化與模型中的違約激勵(lì)相互作用，并導(dǎo)致類似于經(jīng)驗(yàn)文獻(xiàn)的狀態(tài)或有效應(yīng)。平均而言，該模型對(duì)全球利率上升的反應(yīng)是息差增加1.4倍。波動(dòng)狀態(tài)對(duì)這一平均值有重大影響——在高波動(dòng)狀態(tài)下，利差的增加要大得多。此外，我們還表明，正如數(shù)據(jù)所示，世界利率的波動(dòng)可以在各國主權(quán)收益率上產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)大的共同運(yùn)動(dòng)。

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24.Trade fraud and non-tariff measures

貿(mào)易欺詐和非關(guān)稅措施

Hiau LooiKee? Alessandro? Nicita

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103682

Similar to tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs) may induce trade fraud when they are restrictive. This paper examines whether discrepancies observed in the official trade statistics of importing and exporting countries are partly due to trade fraud from evading border NTMs. To capture the restrictiveness of NTMs, this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) with importer-exporter-product variations. This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence showing that discrepancies increase with AVEs, consistent with the trade fraud due to traders intentionally misdeclaring countries of origin or misclassify products in order to evade border NTMs. The results are driven by homogeneous products and the trade between developed and developing countries.

與關(guān)稅類似，當(dāng)非關(guān)稅措施具有限制性時(shí)，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易欺詐。本文探討了在進(jìn)出口國家的官方貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中觀察到的差異是否部分歸因于逃避邊境ntm的貿(mào)易欺詐。為了捕捉ntm的限制性，本文估計(jì)了進(jìn)口-出口-產(chǎn)品變化的從價(jià)當(dāng)量(AVE)。本文提出了一個(gè)理論模型和經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)，表明隨著ave的增加，差異會(huì)增加，這與由于貿(mào)易商故意錯(cuò)報(bào)原產(chǎn)國或錯(cuò)誤分類產(chǎn)品而導(dǎo)致的貿(mào)易欺詐相一致，以逃避邊境ntm。這些結(jié)果是由同質(zhì)產(chǎn)品以及發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家之間的貿(mào)易推動(dòng)的。

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25.The short and long-run effects of international environmental agreements on trade

國際環(huán)境協(xié)定對(duì)貿(mào)易的短期和長(zhǎng)期影響

Josh? Ederington? Mihai? Paraschiv? Maurizio Zanardi

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103685

Does the ratification of an international environmental agreement (IEA) reduce a country's competitiveness on world markets? In this paper, we take a gravity regression approach to answering this question by using industry-level bilateral trade data and employing time-varying country fixed effects to control for the endogeneity of treaty participation. Based on sample of >200 countries and over 40?years, we find that ratifying an IEA results in a significant compositional shift towards exporting cleaner and importing dirtier manufacturing goods. In addition, we find significant lagged effects to ratifying the Kyoto Protocol as the compositional shift towards exporting cleaner goods becomes even stronger in the long run. However, we find little evidence that the ratification of IEAs contributed to an overall decline in manufacturing exports as we uncover only small and insignificant effects of IEAs ratification on the median-polluting manufacturing industry.

批準(zhǔn)國際環(huán)境協(xié)議(IEA)是否會(huì)降低一個(gè)國家在世界市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力?在本文中，我們采用重力回歸方法來回答這個(gè)問題，使用行業(yè)層面的雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)，并采用時(shí)變國家固定效應(yīng)來控制條約參與的內(nèi)生性?；?00個(gè)國家和超過40?年的樣本，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)批準(zhǔn)國際能源署會(huì)導(dǎo)致出口更清潔的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品和進(jìn)口更污染的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品的顯著轉(zhuǎn)變。此外，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)批準(zhǔn)《京都議定書》的顯著滯后效應(yīng)，因?yàn)閺拈L(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，向出口清潔產(chǎn)品的構(gòu)成轉(zhuǎn)變變得更加強(qiáng)烈。然而，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)幾乎沒有證據(jù)表明批準(zhǔn)國際環(huán)境保護(hù)協(xié)定會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)出口的總體下降，因?yàn)槲覀儼l(fā)現(xiàn)批準(zhǔn)國際環(huán)境保護(hù)協(xié)定對(duì)中等污染制造業(yè)的影響很小且微不足道。

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26.Foreign workers, product quality, and trade: Evidence from a natural experiment

外國工人、產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和貿(mào)易:來自自然實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Andrea Ariu

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103686

This paper shows that international labor mobility leads to higher-quality products, more trade, and more effective global value chains. Exploiting variation in the time and intensity at which Swiss localities (identified by their postal codes) were treated by the increasing availability of foreign workers caused by the implementation of the Swiss-EU Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, I find that the inflow of high-skilled European workers led to an upgrade in the quality of inputs imported from their origin countries. Better intermediates show to be associated with a higher quality of output, making Swiss products more appealing for international markets and boosting exports. Therefore, the efficacy of Swiss global value chains improved both upstream—thanks to higher-quality intermediate inputs brought by the intensification of the existing buyer-seller relations—and downstream—because higher-quality products eased increasing exports to existing buyers and helped finding new customers, especially in distant destinations.

本文表明，國際勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng)會(huì)帶來更高質(zhì)量的產(chǎn)品、更多的貿(mào)易和更有效的全球價(jià)值鏈。由于瑞士-歐盟人員自由流動(dòng)協(xié)定的實(shí)施，瑞士各地(以郵政編碼標(biāo)識(shí))的外國工人越來越多，利用這些時(shí)間和強(qiáng)度的差異，我發(fā)現(xiàn)高技能歐洲工人的流入導(dǎo)致了從其原籍國進(jìn)口的投入品質(zhì)量的提升。更好的中間體與更高質(zhì)量的產(chǎn)品相關(guān)聯(lián)，使瑞士產(chǎn)品對(duì)國際市場(chǎng)更具吸引力，并促進(jìn)出口。因此，瑞士全球價(jià)值鏈的效率在上游和下游都得到了提升，前者得益于現(xiàn)有買賣雙方關(guān)系的強(qiáng)化所帶來的更高質(zhì)量的中間投入，后者則是因?yàn)楦哔|(zhì)量的產(chǎn)品緩解了對(duì)現(xiàn)有買家的出口增長(zhǎng)，并有助于尋找新客戶，尤其是在遙遠(yuǎn)的目的地。