Booming Non-AI Economy

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Ten months ago the spectre of recession haunted corporate America. Inflation was rampant, profits were depressed and the Federal Reserve was tightening the screws. Instead, inflation has moderated, the jobs market remains tight and recession is no longer a certainty. The prospect of an elusive "soft landing" has combined with hype over the productivity-boosting promise of artificial intelligence (AI) to give investors a fillip. This year the S&P 500 index of big firms is up by nearly a fifth.

10個月前，經(jīng)濟衰退的恐慌籠罩著美國企業(yè)。通貨膨脹猖獗，利潤下跌，美聯(lián)儲政策收緊。相反，現(xiàn)在通貨膨脹放緩， 就業(yè)市場依然緊張，經(jīng)濟衰退也不再是板上釘釘?shù)氖隆Ｉ胁淮_定的“軟著陸”前景與人工智能能夠刺激生產(chǎn)力的炒作一起，刺激了投資者。今年，標準普爾500大公司指數(shù)上漲了接近五分之一。

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Markets are especially bullish about a few large technology companies and car-makers. These are among the S&P 500's most AI-obsessed members, according to our early-adopters index (which takes into account factors such as AI-related patents, investments and hiring, see chart 1 on next page). They have done well in the here and now, too: all reported respectable second-quarter results in the latest earnings season, which wraps up soon. But what about the health of the broad swathes of the?American economy that are less affected by all the tech hype? Here the picture is more complex, but ultimately reassuring.

市場尤其看好少數(shù)的大型科技公司和汽車制造。根據(jù)我們早期采用者指數(shù)（該指數(shù)把例如人工智能相關的專利、投資、和招聘等因素考慮在內(nèi)，詳見下一頁表1），這些公司在標準普爾500指數(shù)中最看好人工智能。目前他們表現(xiàn)也不錯：所有公司在最近第二季度的財報季中都表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異，全都圓滿結束。但是，受科技炒作影響較小的美國經(jīng)濟健康情況如何呢？這里的情況更加復雜，但最終令人放心。

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Start with the bad news. Some of the businesses least prepared for an AI future are suffering in the present. Health-care companies look sickly: UBS, a bank, estimates that their profits slumped by nearly 30% compared with last year (see chart 2). CVS?Health, a chain of chemists (ranked 218th in our AI index), is slashing 5,000 jobs after its earnings sank by 37%. Energy firms made half as much money in the second quarter of 2023 as they did a year earlier, when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up oil and gas prices. With other commodity prices also down, materials firms' profits fell by 30%.

首先是壞消息。目前，一些未對人工智能未來做好準備的企業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷磨難。醫(yī)療保健公司目前很惱火：瑞士聯(lián)合銀行估計，相比于去年，他們的利潤暴跌近30%（見表2）。連鎖藥商CVS健康公司（CVS Health）（在我們的人工智能指數(shù)中排第218位）收入下降了30%，正在裁員5000人。因為當時俄烏戰(zhàn)爭，使得石油和天然氣價格上漲，能源公司在2023年第二季度的收入近僅為去年的二分之一。由于其他商品價格下降，材料公司的利潤也下降了30%。

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As a result, overall earnings for S&P 500 firms are estimated to have slid by 5% in the second quarter, year on year, reckons FactSet, a data provider. That is the biggest decline since early in the pandemic.

數(shù)據(jù)提供商FactSet估計，因此，與去年同期相比，預計標準普爾500指數(shù)公司在第二財季的總收入下降了5%。這是從疫情初期以來最大的降幅。

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Yet the pain has been concentrated in a handful of sectors. Dig deeper, and much of the non-AI?economy looks surprisingly robust. Capital-goods manufacturers, such as?Caterpillar and Raytheon (which come in at 204th and 340th in our ranking), are reckoned to have collectively increased their revenues by more than 8% in the second quarter, and their profits by twice as much?-?perhaps thanks in part to President Joe Biden's taste for industrial policy. Even the oil-and-gas giants are doing better than?the headline numbers suggest. The largest of them, ExxonMobil (ranked 236th), made nearly $8bn in net profit?-?down by 56% year on year but, bar that record-breaking result in 2022, still its highest second-quarter figure in nearly a decade.

然而，痛苦只集中在少數(shù)行業(yè)。深入挖掘，許多非人工智能經(jīng)濟看起來出奇地強勁。例如卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）?和雷神公司（Raytheon）（在我們排名中占據(jù)第204位和340位）等資本貨物制造商，在第二財季總收益增加了8%以上，他們的利潤增加了2倍--或許部分原因是得益于拜登總統(tǒng)對于工業(yè)的政策。即使是石油和天然氣巨頭表現(xiàn)也比頭條數(shù)據(jù)顯示的要好。其中最大的?？松梨谑凸荆‥xxonMobil ）（排名第236位）的凈利潤接近80億美元 - 同比下降了56%，除了2022年破紀錄的利潤額以外，這依然是近10年中第二財季中最高業(yè)績。

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The resilience is perhaps most obvious for businesses with fortunes tied to the condition of the American consumer, who remains in rude health.?Pedlars of staples, such as foodstuffs and household goods,saw their profits rise by 5% year on year, according to UBS. For purveyors of non-staple consumer goods, earnings shot up by 40%. On August 1st Starbucks, a coffee-shop colossus (ranked 116th in our AI index), reported a quarterly operating profit of $1.6bn, up by 22%. The next day Kraft Heinz, a seller of ketchup and baked beans (ranked 253rd), said it made $1.4bn in operating profit, two and a half times what it did a year?ago.

或許，經(jīng)濟恢復力在與美國消費者狀況相關的行業(yè)表現(xiàn)最為明顯，經(jīng)濟恢復能力仍然強健。根據(jù)瑞士聯(lián)合銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，與去年相比，食物和家居用品銷售商的利潤增加了5%，副食品供應商的收入猛增了40%?？Х鹊昃揞^星巴克（在我們?nèi)斯ぶ悄苤笖?shù)中排名第116位）在8月1號公布了季度營業(yè)額為16億美元，增幅達到22%。次日，銷售番茄醬和番茄醬烘豆的卡夫亨氏公司（排名第253位）表示營業(yè)額達到14億美元，是去年的2.5倍。

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Consumer-goods firms have held on to pricing power. Confectioners, for example, are charging 11% more for chocolates than they did last year, according to the Bureau of?Labour Statistics. Hershey (331st) has offset the rising cost of cocoa-and then some. Its operating profit rose by 23%, to $561m. PepsiCo (245th) lifted prices of its soft drinks and snacks by15% in the second quarter alone. Its operating profit bubbled up by three-quarters, to $3.7bn. It now expects to increase sales by 10% and net profit by 12% this year, up from an earlier forecast of 8% and 9%, respectively.

消費品公司一直掌握著定價權。例如，根據(jù)勞工統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)，甜食產(chǎn)業(yè)今年巧克力定價比去去年高11%以上。好時公司（Hershey）（排名331位）抵消了可可和其他原料的漲價，該公司的營業(yè)利潤增長了23%，達到5.61億美元。百事公司（排名245位）僅在第二財季基于將其軟飲料和小吃提價了15%，其營業(yè)利潤增長了四分之三，達到37億美元?，F(xiàn)在，該公司預期今年銷量增加10% 凈利潤增加12%，高于早期預測的8%和9%。

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Americans aren't just spending on sweets and cola. Air travel is recovering rapidly, particularly for international trips.?American Airlines (266th in our AI index), Delta Air Lines (193rd) and United Airlines (183rd) collectively reported net profits of $4.2bn last quarter, the most since 2015.?Hotels are inundated with leisure and business travelers. Hilton (a chain ranked a lowly 420th)?said that its revenue per available room, a preferred industry measure, was up by 12%, year on year.

美國人不僅在甜食和飲料上消費。航空業(yè)也快速恢復中，尤其是國際航空。美國航空公司（在我們?nèi)斯ぶ悄苤笖?shù)中排226名）、德爾塔航空公司（193名）和美國聯(lián)合航空公司（183名）公布了上一季度總的凈利潤為42億美元，這是從2015年以來最高的利潤。酒店住滿了旅行和出差的客人。希爾頓酒店（連鎖酒店，排在420位）稱，作為行業(yè)首選指標。其沒見可用客房的收同比入增加了12%。

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How long can the bonanza last? Shoppers are gradually drawing down the savings they accumulated during the pandemic, when they received stimulus cheques from the government but lacked ways to spend them. Between August 2021 and May this year, households spent over $1.5trn of these savings, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

這種繁榮景象能持續(xù)多久呢？消費者們的積蓄逐漸減少，這是在疫情期間存下的財富，那時他們收到來自政府的刺激支票，但是沒有可以消費的方式。根據(jù)舊金山聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，在2021年8月到今年5月，家庭支出超過了1.5萬億美元的儲蓄。

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At that rate they will burn through the $500bn or so they still have before the end of the year. Although unemployment remains near historic lows, at 3.5% in July, wage growth has slowed. The resumption of student-loan repayments in October, after the Supreme Court struck down Mr Biden's plan to cancel some student debts altogether, could see consumer spending fall by as much as $9bn a month, according to Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

按照那樣的速率，家庭支出將在年底前消耗掉剩余的5千億美元左右。盡管失業(yè)率保持在歷史低點，7月為3.5%，但是工資增幅已經(jīng)放緩。根據(jù)咨詢公司牛津經(jīng)濟研究院的數(shù)據(jù)，最高法院駁回了拜登總統(tǒng)完全取消一些學生貸款的計劃，此后在10月恢復償還學生貸款，消費者支出可能每月下降90億美元。

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If rising interest rates eventually curb demand, firms will find it harder to continue raising prices, leaving margins more vulnerable. Higher rates will also knock businesses with weak balance-sheets. In the first half of this year 340 companies covered by S&P Global, a?credit-rating agency, declared bankruptcy, the highest number since 2010. More could suffer a similar fate, especially if a recession does hit.

如果不斷上漲的利率最終遏制了需求，企業(yè)就會發(fā)現(xiàn)很難再繼續(xù)漲價，利潤將減少。更高的利率也會導致企業(yè)因為收支不平衡而倒下。今年上半年，信用評級機構標普全球旗下340家公司宣布了破產(chǎn)，這是2010年以來最高的數(shù)字。還有許多企業(yè)可能面臨同樣的遭遇，尤其是經(jīng)濟衰退真的發(fā)生的話。

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That eventuality is not completely out of the question. Goldman Sachs, a bank, thinks there is a 20% chance of a recession in America in the next 12 months. Citi-group, another lender, expects a downturn at the start of 2024. If that happens, not even the AI-friendliest firms will emerge completely unscathed.

這不是不可能發(fā)生的事。高盛銀行認為，在接下來的12個月里，美國經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性為20%。另一家銀行花旗集團預計，2024年初會出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟下滑。如果發(fā)生，即使是人工智能最友好的公司也無法獨善其身。