今天我們一起精讀《The。Economist》2023.6.3社論

The old and the zestless

人丁寥落，意興闌珊

Ageing economies will suffer not just fiscal problems, but also a dearth of new ideas

老齡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)體不僅會(huì)遇到財(cái)政問題，還有缺乏新想法的問題。

這篇文章共15段（下），加油！

上篇回顧：Day70「外刊·精讀·聽力」人丁寥落，意興闌珊：人口老齡化和生育率低下會(huì)帶來什么后果？

附上音頻方便做聽力練習(xí)，下面讓我們開始愉快學(xué)習(xí)吧！

Briefing?-?Ageing?and?innovation20:48

譯文及學(xué)習(xí)筆記：

*序號(hào)按照原文段落順序排列

*中文譯文為筆者自譯，僅供學(xué)習(xí)交流使用，如有任何錯(cuò)誤或不同意見，誠(chéng)請(qǐng)批評(píng)指正!

1

In research published in 2021, Mary Kaltenberg and Adam Jaffe, both economists, and Margie Lachman, a psychologist, used a database of 3m patents filed over more than 40 years to explore the relationship between innovation and age. Depending on the scientific discipline, the authors

note that patenting rates peak in a researcher's late 30s and early 40s. The rates of patenting then decline only gradually through their 40s and 50s.

在2021年由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Mary Kaltenberg、Adam Jaffe和心理學(xué)家Margie Lachman發(fā)表的研究報(bào)告中，他們使用超過40年來積累的300萬專利作為數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，來探索創(chuàng)新和年齡之間的關(guān)系。根據(jù)學(xué)科劃分，作者表示專利率在研究者30-40歲之間達(dá)到高峰，并在40-50歲之間逐漸下降。

2

But for disruptive innovations, which fundamentally change a scientific field, the picture is very different. The researchers used a measure of disruptiveness based on the number of?citations?of a given invention in future patents. If a particular patent is cited by subsequent inventors, but that patent's technological predecessors are not, it is categorised as a disruptive rather than an?incremental?innovation. For instance, the work of Kary Mullis, a Nobelprize-winning biochemist, on polymerase chain reactions underpins much modern genetic and medical testing. After Mullis?published his work, citations of prior technologies in the same field?nosedived. Mr Jaffe, Ms Kaltenberg and Ms Lachman find that patents filed by the very youngest inventors are much more likely to be completely novel, discipline-changing innovations, and that as inventors age the patents they file become increasingly incremental.

但是對(duì)于能從根本上改變一個(gè)科學(xué)領(lǐng)域的破壞性創(chuàng)新來說，情況就非常不同了。研究人員使用未來專利中某項(xiàng)發(fā)明被引用次數(shù)來測(cè)量破壞性創(chuàng)新的程度。如果一項(xiàng)特定的專利被后來的發(fā)明者引用，但該專利的技術(shù)前身沒有被引用，那么它被歸類為破壞性創(chuàng)新，而不是增量創(chuàng)新。例如，諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)獲得者生化學(xué)家Kary Mullis關(guān)于聚合酶鏈反應(yīng)的研究是現(xiàn)代基因?qū)W和藥物測(cè)試的根基。在Mullis發(fā)表了他的研究后，同一領(lǐng)域之前的技術(shù)引用量驟降。Jaffe、Kaltenberg和Lachma發(fā)現(xiàn)非常年輕的發(fā)明者提交的專利更有可能是全新的、改變學(xué)科的創(chuàng)新，而隨著發(fā)言者年紀(jì)增長(zhǎng)，他們提交的專利更多是增量創(chuàng)新。

citations

n.引文;(被)引用，引證;引述;表彰;引語;表?yè)P(yáng);(尤指對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中英勇表現(xiàn)的)嘉獎(jiǎng)令

His citation says he showed outstanding and exemplary courage.

頒給他的嘉獎(jiǎng)令稱他表現(xiàn)出非凡的勇氣，堪為表率。

The court could issue a citation and fine Ms. Robbins.

法庭可能會(huì)發(fā)傳票，對(duì)羅賓斯女士處以罰款。

incremental

Adj.增加的;遞增的

...our ability to add production capacity at relatively low incremental cost...

我們以相對(duì)較低的邊際成本增加產(chǎn)能的能力

Run tests on every build, including incremental developer builds.

在每一個(gè)構(gòu)建上面運(yùn)行測(cè)試，包括增加的開發(fā)人員構(gòu)建。

nosedive

暴跌；急轉(zhuǎn)直下；猛跌

Toyota sales have nosedived due to the soaring value of the yen, which makes Japanese products more expensive overseas.

由于日元大幅度升值推高了日本產(chǎn)品在海外的價(jià)格，所以豐田汽車的銷售急劇下滑。

創(chuàng)新的四種類型分別是增量創(chuàng)新（incremental innovation）、鄰近創(chuàng)新（adjacent innovation）、破環(huán)性創(chuàng)新（breakthrough innovation）和激進(jìn)創(chuàng)新（radical innovation）。

3

This matters, because innovation raises?productivity. Improvements to existing?processes and the invention of entirely?new ways of doing things enable more to?be produced with the same amount of labour and capital. In the long term, it is only?by raising productivity that standards of?living can be lifted. Demographic decline?will?chip away at?that contribution over?time by reducing the number of novel?ideas stemming from the fluidly intelligent minds of young workers.

創(chuàng)新很重要，因?yàn)閯?chuàng)新提高生產(chǎn)力。對(duì)現(xiàn)有流程的改進(jìn)和發(fā)明全新的方法可以在同樣時(shí)間和資金的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)更多產(chǎn)出。長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，只有提高了生產(chǎn)力水平才能提高生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。人口下降將會(huì)削弱創(chuàng)新帶來的貢獻(xiàn)，因?yàn)橐揽磕贻p勞動(dòng)者們的流體智力而誕生的創(chuàng)新想法也在隨著人口的下降而減少。

chip away

鏟除；削掉；拆掉; 鑿（敲）下碎片

I'll not let you chip away my career.

我不會(huì)讓你一分一分毀了我的事業(yè)。

Chip away any unsound concrete leaving the surface level but rough.

去除任何使表面平坦卻粗糙的變質(zhì)混凝土。

Chip away at

步破壞，漸漸削弱（觀點(diǎn)、感覺或體制）; 逐漸還清（債務(wù)）; 慢慢減少（金額）

Her comments were beginning to chip away at his self-confidence.

她的話開始削弱他的自信心。

Any decline in this market could chip away at the buying power of some middle-class Chinese.

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐漸衰弱，可能削弱中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的購(gòu)買力。

Half-heartedness in an entrepreneurial endeavor will chip away at your drive to succeed.

在創(chuàng)業(yè)過程中三心二意，將讓你失去成功的動(dòng)力。

4

Even a?fractionally?lower rate of productivity growth will compound over the years to make an economy significantly smaller. During the particularly rapid post-war boom in economic growth in the rich world, between 1947 and 1973, productivity growth accounted for about 60% of the rise in output per worker in America, Britain,France,?Italy, Japan and West Germany.?America has grown much faster than the rest of the rich world since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, thanks in large part to its bigger gains in productivity.

即便生產(chǎn)力增速的微小下降，也會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增速持續(xù)幾年下滑。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)繁榮期，即1947年至1973年間，生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)占據(jù)美國(guó)、英國(guó)、法國(guó)、意大利、日本和西德工人人均產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)的60%左右。自2007-2009年金融危機(jī)以來，美國(guó)比其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家發(fā)展得快得多，很大程度上要?dú)w功于生產(chǎn)力的大發(fā)展。

fractionally

[?fr?k??n?li]

adv. 很小; 很少

5

If the decline in fertility?was confined to?a few countries, or a particular region, the impact on innovation might not be so severe. Technologies invented in one country eventually spread to others. The spinning jenny and the computer chip didn't have to be reinvented in every corner of the world to improve productivity globally. But the fact that fertility is declining simultaneously in a large proportion of countries means that the consequences in terms of reduced innovation will be felt globally.

如果生育率下降只局限于很少的幾個(gè)國(guó)家，或者一個(gè)特別的地區(qū)，那么其對(duì)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)生的影響可能不會(huì)這么嚴(yán)重。一個(gè)國(guó)家的發(fā)明最終會(huì)傳播到其他國(guó)家。世界的各個(gè)地方不需要都發(fā)明紡織機(jī)和電腦芯片才能提高生產(chǎn)力。但是事實(shí)上，大多數(shù)國(guó)家的生育率都在同時(shí)下降，這意味著創(chuàng)新減少造成的影響也是全球性的。

Be confined to

局限在; 只限于; 禁閉; 限于

The so-called knowledge has been always confined to perceptual and intelligent levels.

而所謂的知識(shí)，也就始終被局限在感性的和悟性的兩個(gè)層次上。

6

Some researchers believe such a demographically driven reduction in innovation is already under way in parts of the world. James Liang, a?..economist and demographer, notes that entrepreneurship is markedly lower in older countries: an increase of one standard?deviation?in the median age in a country, equivalent to about 3.5 years, leads to a decrease of 2.5 percentage points in the entrepreneurship rate (the proportion of adults who start their own business). That is a huge effect, considering the global entrepreneurship rate was around 6.1% in 2010.

一些研究者認(rèn)為這種由人口下降導(dǎo)致的創(chuàng)新減少在一些國(guó)家已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和人口學(xué)家梁建章表示老齡化國(guó)家的創(chuàng)業(yè)水平已經(jīng)在下降：一個(gè)國(guó)家的中位年齡每增加一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差，相當(dāng)于3.5歲，會(huì)導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)率下降2.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（創(chuàng)業(yè)率指成年人創(chuàng)業(yè)的比例）?？紤]到2021年全球創(chuàng)業(yè)率僅6.1%，這無疑會(huì)影響巨大。

Deviation

[?di?vi?e??n]

n. 偏差; 偏離; 背離; 違背

7

What is more, this relationship does not seem to be simply a function of the relative lack of young people in ageing societies. Young people in such countries also seem to start businesses at lower rates than their peers in less?wizened?societies.

此外，這種關(guān)系并不僅僅是因?yàn)槔淆g化社會(huì)相對(duì)缺少年輕人的作用產(chǎn)生的，在這種社會(huì)中的年輕人與在老齡化程度不那么高的社會(huì)中的同齡人相比，創(chuàng)業(yè)率也比較低。

wizened

/?w?znd/

adj.干癟的;(由于年老)多皺的，干枯的

wizened apples

皺癟的蘋果

8

This phenomenon, according to Mr Liang, may be the cause of Japan's?“entrepreneur vacuum”. As recently as 2010, Japanese inventors were the biggest producers of patents in 35 global industries, according to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, a?UN?agency. By 2021 they were the leaders in just three. Japan has fallen behind not only?..., which now occupies most of the top spots, but America too.

梁建章表示這種現(xiàn)象也許是導(dǎo)致了日本“創(chuàng)業(yè)真空”的原因。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)世界知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)組織數(shù)據(jù)，早在2010年，日本發(fā)明者已經(jīng)是全球35個(gè)國(guó)家中最大的專利生產(chǎn)者。2021年，日本僅僅在三個(gè)行業(yè)領(lǐng)先，日本不僅落在了..后面，如今..包攬了大部分世界第一，還落后于美國(guó)。

9

Looking only at the most novel fields, in which radical new innovations are most likely, makes the picture no better. In an analysis published by the London School?of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, Antonin Bergeaud and Cyril Verluise note that Japan's contribution to genome editing and block?chain technology has shrunk to almost nothing. Once-leading roles in hydrogen storage, self-driving vehicles and computer vision (a form of artificial intelligence that trains computers to interpret images) have been reduced to supporting roles behind America, China or both (see chart 2).

近看最新領(lǐng)域，即最有可能出現(xiàn)激進(jìn)創(chuàng)新的領(lǐng)域，并不會(huì)改善情況。在倫敦經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)效益中心發(fā)表的一篇分析中，Antonin Bergeaud和Cyril Verluise表示日本在基因編輯和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)上的貢獻(xiàn)幾乎將至零。曾經(jīng)在氫能儲(chǔ)存，自動(dòng)駕駛和電腦視覺（一種訓(xùn)練電腦解讀圖片的人工智能）領(lǐng)先的日本現(xiàn)在已淪為美國(guó)或..，或兩者的輔助角色。

10

Needling nabobs of natalism

Governments are largely powerless to reverse declining birth rates. Attempts in various countries to?prod?women to have more children have typically yielded?meagre?results. Research on the expensive support provided by governments in Hungary and Poland, in the form of income-tax credits and flat payments respectively, suggests a limited effect on fertility. Singapore offers large grants to the parents of new children, which now run to S$11,000 ($8,300) for the first two children, and S$13,000 for any more, on top of tax rebates and child-care subsidies. Parents are given priority over other buyers in subsidised apartment sale schemes. But Singapore's total fertility rate is just 1.0: whatever the effect of the policies, it is nowhere near big enough to avert demographic decline.

瘋狂催生

政府很難扭轉(zhuǎn)生育率下降的趨勢(shì)。很多國(guó)家鼓勵(lì)婦女生育更多孩子的嘗試收效甚微。關(guān)于匈牙利和波蘭政府提供大額補(bǔ)助的研究表明，所得稅抵免和統(tǒng)一退款對(duì)生育率作用有限。新加坡為生育了兒童的家庭提供大額獎(jiǎng)金，前兩個(gè)出生的孩子獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)達(dá)到1.1萬新幣（折合8300美元），每多生育一個(gè)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)1.3萬新幣，享受最高的稅收減免和兒童保障補(bǔ)助。在補(bǔ)貼型公寓銷售計(jì)劃中，育兒父母享有優(yōu)先權(quán)。但是新加坡的生育率只有1：不管政策作用如何，人口下降仍無法避免。

nabobs

[?ne?b?b]

在印度發(fā)財(cái)?shù)臍W洲人, 富豪?

在1700年代后期，東印度公司官員因返回英國(guó)并炫耀他們?cè)谟《确e累的巨大財(cái)富而臭名昭著。它們被稱為" nabobs"，是nawab的英語發(fā)音，nagob是大人物的頭銜。

natalism

n.鼓勵(lì)生育政策; 鼓勵(lì)生育的態(tài)度

Prod

[prɑ?d]

v. 戳; 督促; 捅; 催促; 鼓動(dòng); 杵

n. 戳; 捅; 鼓勵(lì); 催促; 提醒; (趕牲畜用的)尖棒，刺棒; 杵; （貶稱）新教徒

meagre

[?mi?ɡ?r]

adj. 數(shù)量很少的; 少量且劣質(zhì)的

11

Of course, birth rates are not the only, or even the main determinant of productivity. If they were, some of sub-Saharan Africa's poorest economies would be the world's most dynamic. Levels of education, the reliability of legal and financial systems and the existence of networks of innovators interacting with one another all matter. Japan is still more innovative than many rich countries with a lower average age. But demography can magnify or?muffle?a country's underlying potential.

當(dāng)然，出生率并不是生產(chǎn)力的唯一決定條件。如果是的話，那么撒哈拉以南非洲最貧窮的國(guó)家將會(huì)成為世界最強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。教育水平，法律和金融系統(tǒng)的可靠性，以及創(chuàng)新者互動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)都很重要。日本仍然比很多平均年齡較低的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家更有創(chuàng)新力。但是，人口情況仍會(huì)放大或壓抑一個(gè)國(guó)家蘊(yùn)含的潛力。

Muffle

[?m?fl]

vt. 壓抑(聲音); 使(聲音)降低; 壓低; 裹住，覆蓋，蒙住(以保暖); 使聽不清;

n. 圍巾; 拳擊用手套; (反芻動(dòng)物等的)上唇露肉部分和鼻子; 瘋子用皮手套

He tried to muffle the alarm clock by putting it under his pillow.

他把鬧鐘塞在枕頭底下，想壓低聲音。

12

That suggests ways to?counteract?the effects of demographic decline on innovation, by focusing on other factors that increase productivity. The most obvious is education, which allows ageing societies to make better use of the dwindling pool of young people. Especially in middle-income countries such as Brazil and?..., there are millions who do not receive proper schooling, and whose contribution to the economy is therefore small. The same is true,?albeit?to a lesser extent, in much of the rich world. No matter how intelligent they are, uneducated workers cannot hope?to come up with groundbreaking ideas in medicine or computing, say. As the potential workforce shrinks, maximising the output of everyone in it will become essential, and could help offset the effects of an ageing population for some time, at least in the realm of innovation.

這就說明仍有一些可以抵消人口下降對(duì)創(chuàng)新造成影響的方法，即重視其他可以提升生產(chǎn)力因素。最明顯的就是教育，這可以讓社會(huì)更好發(fā)揮正在減少的年輕人資源池的作用。特別是像巴西和...這樣的中等收入國(guó)家，數(shù)百萬人無法受到良好的教育，因此這些人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)很少。這對(duì)很多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家也一樣，盡管程度較低。不管未受教育的工人有多聰明，他們很難在醫(yī)藥或電腦科技方面產(chǎn)生突破性的創(chuàng)新。當(dāng)潛在的勞動(dòng)力縮水時(shí)，最大化每個(gè)人的產(chǎn)出將成為關(guān)鍵，而且可以在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)抵消人口老齡化帶來的影響，至少在創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域。

Counteract

[?ka?nt?r??kt]

vt. 抵消; 抵抗; 抵制

Schools are taking action to counteract bullying.

學(xué)校正在采取措施抵制恃強(qiáng)凌弱的行為。

albeit?

[???l?bi??t]

conj.?????? 盡管; 雖然

13

Technology can also provide ways to cope with demographic change, from telemedicine to the increased use of robots in service industries. Such innovations can undoubtedly ease the difficulties presented by an ageing society, whether by directly contributing to the care of the elderly or by automating the roles of young workers. But the shrinking number of innovative?young thinkers will, ironically, reduce the number of such valuable new ideas.

科技也能提供應(yīng)對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化的方法，從遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療到服務(wù)行業(yè)增加機(jī)器人的使用。這種創(chuàng)新無疑可以減輕老齡化社會(huì)帶來的困難，不管是直接照顧老年人還是自動(dòng)化年輕人的角色。但諷刺的是，具有創(chuàng)新力的年輕思想者的不斷縮減也意味著這種極富價(jià)值的創(chuàng)意也在減少。

14

A?shortfall?in human innovation may also be less damaging if offset by new ideas conceived by artificial intelligence. There seems no doubt that machines will soon be working out how to make incremental improvements in existing processes—indeed, in some spheres, they already are.Whether machines will ever learn how to generate disruptive new ideas, however, remains a matter of debate.

如果人工智能帶來的新創(chuàng)意能夠抵消人類創(chuàng)意的不足就不會(huì)有什么損失了?？雌饋頍o疑機(jī)器很快就會(huì)算出如何改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有流程——事實(shí)上，在某些領(lǐng)域，它們已經(jīng)做到了。然而，機(jī)器是否能學(xué)會(huì)產(chǎn)生破壞性創(chuàng)意尚存爭(zhēng)議。

Shortfall

n.缺口;差額;虧空

15

Plasmon's film, about the last child in Italy, ends with a discussion of children as a symbol of hope. It directs viewers to a website that suggests policies to promote bigger families. The website, in turn, asks readers to sign a petition calling for action. Scarcely 8,000 have done so. As the number of Italians continues to shrink, and especially the number of young ones, it is not just buyers of baby food who will be in short supply. Plasmon will struggle to find creative talents to dream up clever advertising campaigns, much less devise new policies to reverse the baby bust.

派樂萌的電影講述了意大利最后一個(gè)孩子的故事，以兒童作為希望的象征為結(jié)尾。這部電影引導(dǎo)觀眾到一個(gè)網(wǎng)站留下促進(jìn)生育的政策建議。這個(gè)網(wǎng)站請(qǐng)讀者們簽署一份呼吁采取行動(dòng)的請(qǐng)?jiān)笗?。只有不?千人這么做。當(dāng)意大利人口不斷下降，特別是年輕人口，不僅僅是嬰兒食物的購(gòu)買者會(huì)減少。派樂萌會(huì)尋找更具創(chuàng)意的人才想出更聰明的廣告營(yíng)銷策略，而不是想出可以扭轉(zhuǎn)嬰兒荒的新政策。

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