正文翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：cnbsmt 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

With the F-35 coming into service in many countries, will the US and its allies around the world begin to retire planes like the F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-15? How would this affect a country''s ability to project power and engage in military operations overseas? How would it affect the US economy in terms of the arms industry? Would it weaken Europe''s defense capability if the F-35 replaces the Eurofighter Typhoon and increases America''s influence among allies in Europe? Is there any point of a military maintaining 4th gen fighter jets (F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, or F-15)?

隨著F-35在許多國家服役，美國和其盟友會(huì)開始讓其他飛機(jī)退役嗎，比如F-16、F-18、臺(tái)風(fēng)戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)和F-15等？這對(duì)一個(gè)國家在海外投射力量、開展軍事行動(dòng)的能力有何影響？在軍工業(yè)方面，對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)有何影響？如果F-35取代 臺(tái)風(fēng)戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，讓美國在歐洲的影響力增加，會(huì)削弱歐洲的防御能力嗎？軍隊(duì)繼續(xù)維持四代機(jī)還有意義嗎？

評(píng)論翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：cnbsmt 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

Maitai_Haier
Will 5th gen fighter jets make 4th gen fighter jets obsolete?
Eventually yes, but probably not in the near future. Even today 3rd gen fighters are still in use in air forces around the world.
With the F-35 coming into service in many countries, will the US and its allies around the world begin to retire planes like the F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-15? How would this affect a country''s ability to project power and engage in military operations overseas?
Initially, 5th gen fighters will serve alongside 4th gen fighters, likely for some decades. 4th gen fighters will be completely deployable overseas against second-tier opponents, and this is where the bulk of military deployments happen. In a peer-to-peer war 4th gen fighters would still be usable in secondary fronts or as a supplement to 5th gen fighters, albeit they will likely take higher losses.
How would it affect the US economy in terms of the arms industry? Would it weaken Europe''s defense capability if the F-35 replaces the Eurofighter Typhoon and increases America''s influence among allies in Europe?
The US economy is not tied to the arms industry. Total US arms sales in 2018 amounted to $246 B. That amounts to slightly over 1% of total US GDP. The F-35 is only part of total US sales. An increase in market share wouldn''t hurt, but it isn''t going to have a noticeable positive effect. The F-16 resale market will grow, and demand for parts and maintenance will continue.
It will increase Europe''s defense capability to have a 5th gen fighter while Russia doesn''t and China is struggling to get theirs into serial production. The F-35C is going to be very useful for the European STOBAR carriers. Eurofighter will still get orders for domestic political and economic reasons, and will not be replaced by the F-35.
Is there any point of a military maintaining 4th gen fighter jets (F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon, or F-15)?
Yes. A 4th gen fighter is better than no fighter at all.

“五代機(jī)會(huì)讓四代機(jī)過時(shí)嗎？”
四代機(jī)總會(huì)過時(shí)的，但近期還不會(huì)。即使在如今，三代機(jī)都還在世界各國的空軍中用著呢。
“隨著F-35在許多國家服役……”
一開始，五代機(jī)會(huì)和四代機(jī)并存，這段時(shí)間可能會(huì)有幾十年。四代機(jī)會(huì)全部部署在海外，用來對(duì)付次級(jí)對(duì)手，如今大多數(shù)的部署就是這樣的。在同等級(jí)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，四代機(jī)在二線還是有用的，或者作為五代機(jī)的補(bǔ)充，雖然四代機(jī)的損失會(huì)比較高。

“對(duì)……有何影響？”
美國經(jīng)濟(jì)與軍工業(yè)關(guān)系不大。2018年美國軍售總額是2460億美元，只是比美國總GDP的1%略高。這其中，F(xiàn)-35只是總軍售的一部分而已。F-35增加不會(huì)傷害美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的，但也不會(huì)有明顯的積極影響。F-16的二手銷售會(huì)增加，對(duì)零部件和維修的需求也會(huì)繼續(xù)增長。

有了五代機(jī)，歐洲的防御能力會(huì)提高，因?yàn)槎砹_斯還沒有五代機(jī)，而中國正艱難的想要量產(chǎn)五代機(jī)。F-35C對(duì)歐洲的航母非常有用。出于國內(nèi)政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)原因，臺(tái)風(fēng)戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)還是會(huì)獲得訂單的，不會(huì)被F-35取代。
“軍隊(duì)繼續(xù)維持四代機(jī)還有意義嗎？”
有意義。因?yàn)橛兴拇鷻C(jī)總好過根本沒有戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。

Maitai_Haier
I don’t like to talk about military capability on the internet because I feel the discussion verges on pointless: those that know don’t talk, those that talk don’t know. But based on published reports, yes, the F-35 is quite impressive.
The F-35B has turned out to have been quite strategically valuable as well despite coming under fire throughout the program by allowing mid-power navys to field light carriers with 5th gen fighters. The JSF concept has paid off strategically in the sense of relatively low unit costs, widespread use, and empowering US allies and partners. They will holistically make these allies entire militaries more effective, from 4th gen airplanes to navies to land forces able to operate with air supremacy.
Based on the lifecycle of older planes, there will be a blossoming of cheap 4th gen fighter parts, but the manpower needed to maintain the older fighters will increase. They’ll especially have increased value in countries with low labor cost especially, until eventually they grow too old and costly to maintain likely around mid-century.

我不喜歡在網(wǎng)上談軍事能力，因?yàn)槲矣X得這種討論沒什么意義：懂的不說，說的不懂。但根據(jù)公開信息來看，F(xiàn)-35相當(dāng)令人印象深刻。
F-35B在戰(zhàn)略上是很有價(jià)值的，雖然整個(gè)項(xiàng)目一直受到批評(píng)，因?yàn)樗茏屩械葒业暮＼姾侥赣心芰y帶五代機(jī)。JSF的概念在戰(zhàn)略上取得了回報(bào)，因?yàn)樗膯挝怀杀鞠鄬?duì)較低、用的國家多、能增強(qiáng)美國盟友和合作伙伴的實(shí)力。五代機(jī)能讓盟友的軍隊(duì)更有效，從四代機(jī)到海軍再到陸軍，都能在空中優(yōu)勢(shì)下作戰(zhàn)。

關(guān)于舊飛機(jī)的壽命，大量廉價(jià)的四代機(jī)部件將會(huì)出現(xiàn)，但是維護(hù)舊戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)所需的人力也會(huì)增加。不過在勞動(dòng)力成本較低的國家，它們的價(jià)值會(huì)更高，直到它們變得太老，維護(hù)成本高到維持不下去，這可能要到本世紀(jì)中期了。

sanderudam
I''m nowhere near being an expert in this topic, but to me it seems that 5th generation fighters aren''t as much a counter for 4th generation fighters, but rather a counter against advancing AA-systems (though fighters are still a part of AA-systems in a wider sense).
Anyhow, I don''t see 4th generation fighters becoming obsolete or obsolescent anytime soon. It''s not clear yet whether 5th generation fighters offer a comparable "bang for buck". There are different roles a fighter can fill, and an older, but more numerous fighter can still do most of them.

我不是這方面的專家，但在我看來，五代機(jī)不是用來對(duì)付四代機(jī)的，而是用來對(duì)付先進(jìn)的防空系統(tǒng)（盡管從廣義來看，戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)也是防空系統(tǒng)的一部分）。
我不認(rèn)為四代機(jī)很快就會(huì)過時(shí)。目前還不知道五代機(jī)能否達(dá)到四代機(jī)的性價(jià)比。戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)有不同的用途，而較老的、數(shù)量眾多的戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)還是可以滿足很多用途的。

yx_orvar
They are probably the most efficient counter there is today, most recent exercises show that it''s a turkeyshoot for f-35s and f-22s as long as the 5th gen isn''t artificially limited, mostly due to the superiour sensor-suites.

五代機(jī)可能是四代機(jī)最可怕的殺手，最近的演習(xí)表明，只要不被人為的限制，由于強(qiáng)大的探測(cè)器套件，F(xiàn)-35和F-22對(duì)四代機(jī)的戰(zhàn)果就是一邊倒。

RaufRumi
Good point, but what about the maintenance and repairs for the next 30 years? Aircrafts need frequent maintenance and the cost adds up. Its more than the unit cost, its also maintenance and flight time costs. It is logistically easier to buy f16s and use them than f35s.

說得不錯(cuò)，但未來30年的維護(hù)和修理費(fèi)如何呢？飛機(jī)需要經(jīng)常維修，再加上成本。它不僅是單價(jià)，還包括維護(hù)和飛行時(shí)間成本。想就知道了，購買和使用F-16比F-35更便宜。

Dragon029
Maintenance cost is notably higher than an F-16 today (an F-35A''s CPFH is similar to that of an F-15C/E at the moment), but they are working on bringing it down, with the goal of it eventually being about on par with the F-16 today. That may seem unrealistic with it being a stealth aircraft, but you also have to remember that many other aspects of the jet are more reliable and easier to maintain than the F-16''s equivalents. The F-35 control surfaces use self-contained hydraulic actuators that are electrically powered and are designed to be sealed for the life of the jet for example, whereas an F-16 relies on tens (if not hundreds) of metres of hydraulic tubing, valves and connectors to power its control surface actuators.

如今的維護(hù)成本明顯高于F-16（F-35A的每小時(shí)飛行成本與的F-15C/E差不多），他們正在努力降低成本，最終目標(biāo)是達(dá)到現(xiàn)在F-16差不多的程度。這對(duì)于隱形飛機(jī)來說似乎不太現(xiàn)實(shí)，但你要知道，F(xiàn)-35在許多方面比F-16更可靠、更容易維護(hù)。例如，F(xiàn)-35的控制器用的是獨(dú)立的液壓執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)，是電力驅(qū)動(dòng)的，而且是密封的。而F-16依靠幾十米（可能有幾百米）長的液壓管、閥門和連接器來驅(qū)動(dòng)控制器機(jī)構(gòu)。

dravik
The US doesn''t just like the A10 because it''s cheaper. It has significant advantages for CAS missions.

在美國不會(huì)的，他們就喜歡A10，因?yàn)樗阋?，在空中支援中非常有?yōu)勢(shì)。

r3dl3g
It''s also been responsible for more friendly-fire incidents than any other aircraft involved in the actions in Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

在科威特、伊拉克和阿富汗的戰(zhàn)斗中，相比其他飛機(jī)，A-10也對(duì)友軍造成了更多的誤傷。

Tidorith
Does it appear to have more comparitively, after factoring in how often used it is for CAS where I would assume you have the highest risk of friendly fire incidents?

它對(duì)友軍造成更多的誤傷，是因?yàn)樗诳罩兄г惺褂玫念l率非常高，這樣想是否更有可比性了呢？

randocadet
6th gen will almost definitely be a mix between manned and unmanned. Think F-35 with five or six drones integrated with it carrying more armament and adding clutter for other fighters/SAMs using the electronic systems on the 35. The F35 will almost definitely be an early platform for that transition.
Furthermore, if you want to stay competitive in the military game throughout time you can’t skip generations. Or you expose your nation to years without a determined end point of defense inferiority.

六代機(jī)肯定會(huì)是有人和無人的混合。想想看，當(dāng)F-35指揮五到六架無人機(jī)，攜帶更多的武器，再加上其他用了F-35電子系統(tǒng)的戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。F-35肯定會(huì)成為這種轉(zhuǎn)變的早期平臺(tái)。
另外，如果你想在軍事游戲中始終保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，你就不能跳代。否則你的國家有幾年就會(huì)處于防御劣勢(shì)中。

SteveDaPirate
Manned/Unmanned teaming is where things are actually headed. Think an F-35 with drone wingmen.
It allows you to leverage the strengths of both types of platforms while minimising their weaknesses. Autonomous platforms can be built to be smaller, and more agile without a human pilot, and they can be expendable in a pinch. While having a human on scene directing the action can prevent jamming and latency issues via line of sight communications, as well as provide a superior understanding of what''s occurring.
Computers are great at collecting information, calculating and processing it, but even if they''ve been programmed with rules of behavior, they don''t understand the context of a strategic situation or how that situation can evolve in real time. You need a man in the loop to determine what information is actually useful and how to utilize it to full effect.

有人+無人集群才是真正的發(fā)展方向。想想F-35配上無人僚機(jī)。
這能發(fā)揮兩種平臺(tái)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，又能將各自的弱點(diǎn)最小化。無人平臺(tái)能造得更小更靈活，而且在緊要關(guān)頭還可以犧牲掉。當(dāng)有人在現(xiàn)場(chǎng)指揮行動(dòng)時(shí)，可以防止干擾和延遲問題，而且人的理解能力更強(qiáng)。

計(jì)算機(jī)在收集、計(jì)算和處理信息方面很強(qiáng)大，但即使有行為規(guī)則編程，它們也不了解戰(zhàn)略局勢(shì)的背景，也不知道局勢(shì)會(huì)如何發(fā)展。需要專業(yè)人員來決定哪些信息是真正有用的，以及如何充分利用它。