International trade：?Changing places??

The pandemic will not end globalisation, but it will reshape it? ??

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Governments might choose to ignore all this in favour of protection. But most firms are not about to abandon their cross-border investments. A survey by the US-China Business Council shows little change in the number of American firms saying they have moved or plan to move out of China. The survival of the "phase one" trade deal struck in 2019 suggests that even the Trump administration knows there are limits to the desirability?of decoupling from China. Rather than a wholesale break, covid-19 is likely to cause an acceleration of forces already in motion. Firms will trade off a bit of efficiency for more robustness, realising that in the long run the robotisation?of manufacturing may lead to more local production anyway. Governments will shorten and diversify supply chains for medical equipment. But America and China will trade under a darker cloud of mutual suspicion, balancing commercial and geopolitical interests.

desirability /d??za??r??b?l?ti/ n. 愿望；有利條件；值得向往的事物；合意

Robotisation：自動(dòng)化

Further ahead the future of globalisation will be determined less by goods than by services.Before covid-19 services trade was not suffering from slowbalisation: it was growing faster than GDP. Exports of services account for around a fifth of all trade, according to the WTO (although what exactly counts as services trade is a matter of some debate). Like trade in goods, trade in services has suffered this year as tourist flows have collapsed. But consumers are unlikely to have suddenly lost their taste for travel, and countries have little long-term incentive to close borders to tourists. It seems likely that tourism will eventually rebound.

rebound ?/r??ba?nd/

動(dòng)詞：1.~ (from/off sth) 彈回；反彈?2.~ (on sb) 報(bào)應(yīng)；反作用于?2.?(商) (價(jià)格等)回升；反彈

名詞：1.(體)反彈球；回彈球；2.(籃球) 搶斷籃板球；3.(商) 復(fù)興；振作

?on the ?rebound（尤指關(guān)系破裂之后）在傷心困惑之時(shí)

Meanwhile, the surge of investment in remote working during 2020 might open the door to more trade in digital services. When work is carried out remotely, it does not matter where it is done. On the more futuristic end, this involves remote presence.Whereas the export of repair services previously required high-skilled engineers to cross borders, virtual- and augmented-reality technologies?now allow experts in one country to help lower-skilled workers fix machines in another, says Ms Lund. Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva points to the potential for remote workers in poor countries to carry out basic office tasks for firms in the rich world. Before the pandemic the WTO was already talking up the potential for more trade in digital services, predicting that if developing countries adopted digital technologies, they could reap?the rewards of a higher share of international services。

Augmented??/??ɡ'ment?d/ ?adj. 增廣的；增音的；擴(kuò)張的

Augment??v. /??ɡ?ment/ ( formal ) to increase the amount, value, size, etc. of sth 增加；提高；擴(kuò)大

reap ?v. /ri?p/ ?

1.?取得（成果）；收獲??They are now reaping the rewards of all their hard work. 現(xiàn)在，他們的全部辛勞都得到了回報(bào)。 2. 收割（莊稼）；收獲

2.??REAP A/THE ?HARVEST?享受成果；承擔(dān)后果；種瓜得瓜，種豆得豆

3.?YOU ?REAP WHAT YOU ?SOW?種瓜得瓜，種豆得豆

Services trade is hard to liberalise because it often means harmonising regulations. Fields such as education, health care, accounting and finance are littered with?barriers to entry and requirements for local?credentials. The most successful model for remotely provided services is India’s IT sector, which faces few regulatory hurdles. But disputes over cross-border data flows and the taxation of internet giants augur?badly for faster digital integration.?Digital trading, just like trade in goods, is increasingly concentrated in regional regulatory blocks. Yet Mr Baldwin argues that the rise of online services trade will bypass?tensions between East and West, because it will take place within time zones: South America will supply cheap digital services to North America, Africa to Europe, and South-East Asia to North-East Asia.

?be?littered with??散落著，將……亂扔在……處，使雜亂?·The floor was littered with papers. 地板上亂七八糟扔了許多報(bào)紙。

Credential?/kr??den?l/ 提供證明書（或證件）??

Hurdle??/?h??dl/n. 障礙；欄；跳欄vt. 克服 vi. 克服；跳過(guò)

Augur??v. /???ɡ?(r)/ ?~ well/badly ( formal ) 主（吉或兇）；是…的預(yù)兆?? Conflicts among the various groups do not augur well for the future of the peace talks. 各派之間的沖突對(duì)和平談判不是一個(gè)好兆頭。

The increased digitisation brought on by covid-19 can only help services trade, even as goods trade continues to slowbalise. But the extent of that help depends on how much the pandemic reshapes labour markets.

譯文

Governments might choose to ignore all this in favour of protection. But most firms are not about to abandon their cross-border investments. A survey by the US-China Business Council shows little change in the number of American firms saying they have moved or plan to move out of China. The survival of the "phase one" trade deal struck in 2019 suggests that even the Trump administration knows there are limits to the desirability?of decoupling from China. Rather than a wholesale break, covid-19 is likely to cause an acceleration of forces already in motion. Firms will trade off a bit of efficiency for more robustness, realising that in the long run the robotisation?of manufacturing may lead to more local production anyway. Governments will shorten and diversify supply chains for medical equipment. But America and China will trade under a darker cloud of mutual suspicion, balancing commercial and geopolitical interests.

政府出于保護(hù)的目的可能會(huì)選擇性忽視這些因素。但絕大多數(shù)公司不會(huì)放棄他們的跨境投資。由中美商業(yè)委員會(huì)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)美國(guó)企業(yè)雖然說(shuō)他們正在或者計(jì)劃離開(kāi)中國(guó)但實(shí)際上幾乎沒(méi)有變化。2019年“第一階段”貿(mào)易協(xié)議沖擊下的幸存者表明即使是川普管理團(tuán)隊(duì)也知道與中國(guó)脫鉤的愿望應(yīng)是奢望。新冠疫情帶來(lái)的不是大規(guī)模中斷某種活動(dòng)，更像是推動(dòng)進(jìn)程中力量加速運(yùn)行?？傊?，企業(yè)會(huì)犧牲一點(diǎn)效率換取更多的魯棒性，會(huì)意識(shí)到長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展中生產(chǎn)的自動(dòng)化會(huì)產(chǎn)生更多的本地化生產(chǎn)。政府會(huì)縮短醫(yī)療器械的供應(yīng)鏈長(zhǎng)度和推動(dòng)其多樣化。但中美之間的貿(mào)易會(huì)在互相猜忌、平衡商貿(mào)與地緣政治利益的陰云下進(jìn)行。

Further ahead the future of globalisation will be determined less by goods than by services.Before covid-19 services trade was not suffering from slowbalisation: it was growing faster than GDP. Exports of services account for around a fifth of all trade, according to the WTO (although what exactly counts as services trade is a matter of some debate). Like trade in goods, trade in services has suffered this year as tourist flows have collapsed. But consumers are unlikely to have suddenly lost their taste for travel, and countries have little long-term incentive to close borders to tourists. It seems likely that tourism will eventually rebound.

進(jìn)一步，未來(lái)決定全球化的不是商品，而是服務(wù)。疫情之前，服務(wù)商貿(mào)并未受“慢球化”的影響：它比GDP增速快。根據(jù)WTO披露，服務(wù)出口占到總?cè)蚪灰椎奈宸种唬m然服務(wù)交易的定義有待商榷）。如同商品貿(mào)易一樣，由于旅游業(yè)的崩塌，服務(wù)貿(mào)易今年同樣遭受損失。但消費(fèi)者不會(huì)突然失去對(duì)旅游的樂(lè)趣，國(guó)家也不會(huì)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期閉關(guān)鎖國(guó)感興趣。旅游業(yè)看起來(lái)終將會(huì)卷土重來(lái)。

Meanwhile, the surge of investment in remote working during 2020 might open the door to more trade in digital services. When work is carried out remotely, it does not matter where it is done. On the more futuristic end, this involves remote presence.Whereas the export of repair services previously required high-skilled engineers to cross borders, virtual- and augmented-reality technologies?now allow experts in one country to help lower-skilled workers fix machines in another, says Ms Lund. Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute in Geneva points to the potential for remote workers in poor countries to carry out basic office tasks for firms in the rich world. Before the pandemic the WTO was already talking up the potential for more trade in digital services, predicting that if developing countries adopted digital technologies, they could reap?the rewards of a higher share of international services。

與此同時(shí)，2020年對(duì)遠(yuǎn)程工作的投資浪潮可能會(huì)打開(kāi)電子服務(wù)貿(mào)易的大門。當(dāng)工作實(shí)現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)程的時(shí)候，在哪里完成并不重要。在更未來(lái)的一端，遠(yuǎn)程必然存在。Lund女士說(shuō)道以前需要高級(jí)工程師跨境修復(fù)機(jī)械的，通過(guò)采用虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)交互技術(shù)，可以讓專家?guī)椭硖幩麌?guó)的低水平工人修理設(shè)備。日內(nèi)瓦研究所學(xué)院的Richard Baldwin指出欠發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家遠(yuǎn)程工人幫助發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家企業(yè)完成基礎(chǔ)工作任務(wù)的潛能。在疫情爆發(fā)之前，WTO已經(jīng)在討論更多電子服務(wù)商貿(mào)的潛能并預(yù)言道如果發(fā)展中國(guó)家能夠采用電子技術(shù)，則可以在國(guó)際服務(wù)中收割更多的收益份額。

Services trade is hard to liberalise because it often means harmonising regulations. Fields such as education, health care, accounting and finance are littered with?barriers to entry and requirements for local?credentials. The most successful model for remotely provided services is India’s IT sector, which faces few regulatory hurdles. But disputes over cross-border data flows and the taxation of internet giants augur?badly for faster digital integration.?Digital trading, just like trade in goods, is increasingly concentrated in regional regulatory blocks. Yet Mr Baldwin argues that the rise of online services trade will bypass?tensions between East and West, because it will take place within time zones: South America will supply cheap digital services to North America, Africa to Europe, and South-East Asia to North-East Asia.

服務(wù)貿(mào)易難以自由化，因?yàn)樽杂苫馕吨鴧f(xié)調(diào)各個(gè)地方的規(guī)章制度。像教育、醫(yī)療、會(huì)計(jì)及金融領(lǐng)域進(jìn)入他國(guó)有許多進(jìn)入障礙并需要當(dāng)?shù)氐淖C書。目前最成功的遠(yuǎn)程服務(wù)模式是印度的IT行業(yè)，幾乎沒(méi)有面臨管制障礙。此外，關(guān)于跨境數(shù)據(jù)流動(dòng)以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭征稅的爭(zhēng)論明顯預(yù)示著電信整合的加快。然而電信商貿(mào)如同貨物貿(mào)易一樣，越來(lái)越集中在區(qū)域管制之內(nèi)。但是Baldwin先生認(rèn)為線上服務(wù)貿(mào)易會(huì)繞過(guò)東西方的緊張局勢(shì)，因?yàn)樗鼈儠?huì)發(fā)生在時(shí)區(qū)之內(nèi)：南美為北美提供廉價(jià)電子信息服務(wù)；非洲為歐洲，東南亞為東北亞。

The increased digitisation brought on by covid-19 can only help services trade, even as goods trade continues to slowbalise. But the extent of that help depends on how much the pandemic reshapes labour markets.

新冠疫情帶來(lái)的電子信息化提高只能夠幫助服務(wù)貿(mào)易，商品貿(mào)易依舊持續(xù)放緩。但是電子信息化對(duì)服務(wù)貿(mào)易幫助的程度取決于疫情重塑勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的程度。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人11月刊