原文標題：
Labour markets
Boy cries wolf
Generative AI is not yet killing jobs
勞動力市場
男孩大喊“狼來了”
生成式人工智能還沒有扼殺工作崗位

White-collar workers are ever more numerous
白領一族越來越多

[Paragraph 1]

AFTER ASTONISHING breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap.

在人工智能取得驚人的突破后，許多人擔心他們最終會成為經(jīng)濟廢料堆（失業(yè)）。

Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (LLMs).

最近幾個月，全球谷歌搜索 "我的工作安全嗎？"的次數(shù)增加了一倍，因為人們擔心會被大型語言模型取代。

Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming.

一些證據(jù)表明，大范圍的破壞即將到來。

In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of OpenAI and colleagues say that “around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs”.

在最近的一篇論文中，OpenAI的泰娜·埃隆杜及其同事說，"由于大型語言模型的引入，大約80%的美國勞動力至少有10%的工作任務會受其影響?！?/span>

Another paper suggests that legal services, accountancy and travel agencies will face unprecedented upheaval.

另一篇論文表明，法律服務、會計和旅行社將面臨前所未有的劇變。

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Economists, however, tend to enjoy making predictions about automation more than they enjoy testing them.
然而，經(jīng)濟學家更喜歡預測自動化的趨勢，而不太愿意進行真實測試。

In the early 2010s many of them loudly predicted that robots would kill jobs by the millions, only to fall silent when employment rates across the rich world rose to all-time highs.
在2010年代初，他們中的許多人大聲預言，機器人將導致數(shù)百萬個工作崗位消失，然而當發(fā)達國家的就業(yè)率創(chuàng)新高時，他們卻沉默不語了。

Few of the doom-mongers have a good explanation for why countries with the highest rates of tech usage around the globe, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, consistently have among the lowest rates of unemployment.
對于為什么日本、新加坡和韓國等全球科技使用率最高的國家的失業(yè)率一直處于最低水平，很少有末日論者能給出很好的解釋。

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Here we introduce our first attempt at tracking AI’s impact on jobs.
在這里，我們介紹一下我們的首個追蹤研究，即人工智能對就業(yè)的影響。

Using American data on employment by occupation, we single out white-collar workers. These include people working in everything from back-office support and financial operations to copy-writers.
我們使用美國按職業(yè)分類的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，并且把白領工人單獨挑出來。其中包括各行各業(yè)的白領，如后勤支持，財務運營，文案撰寫等等。

White-collar roles are thought to be especially vulnerable to generative AI, which is becoming ever better at logical reasoning and creativity.
由于生成式AI在邏輯推理和創(chuàng)造力方面變得越來越好，人們擔心白領職位最容易受其影響。

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However, there is as yet little evidence of an AI hit to employment.
然而，目前還沒有什么證據(jù)表明人工智能對就業(yè)造成沖擊。

In the spring of 2020 white-collar jobs rose as a share of the total, as many people in service occupations lost their job at the start of the covid-19 pandemic (see chart).
2020年春，白領職位占總職位的比例上升，因為在疫情開始時，許多從事服務行業(yè)的人失業(yè)了（見圖）。

The white-collar share is lower today, as leisure and hospitality have recovered.
如今隨著休閑和酒店業(yè)的復蘇，白領職位占比下降。

Yet in the past year the share of employment in professions supposedly at risk from generative AI has risen by half a percentage point.
然而，在過去的一年里，白領職位（據(jù)傳受生成式AI威脅大）占比上升了半個百分點。

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It is, of course, early days. Few firms yet use generative-AI tools at scale, so the impact on jobs could merely be delayed.

當然，現(xiàn)在還處于早期階段。很少有公司大規(guī)模使用生成式AI工具，所以它對就業(yè)的影響可能延遲了。

Another possibility, however, is that these new technologies will end up destroying only a small number of roles.

然而，另一種可能性是，這些新技術最終將只會使小部分崗位消失。

While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need.
雖然 AI 在某些任務上可能很高效，但在其他任務上可能不那么出色，比如管理和了解他人的需求。

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AI could even have a positive effect on jobs.

人工智能甚至可能對工作產(chǎn)生積極影響。

If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses to ramp up hiring.

如果AI讓員工變得更有效率，他們公司的利潤就會增加，然后老板們就會增加招聘。

A recent survey by Experis, an IT-recruitment firm, points to this possibility.More than half of Britain’s employers expect AI technologies to have a positive impact on their headcount over the next two years, it finds.

IT招聘公司Experis最近的一項調(diào)查指出了這種可能性。它發(fā)現(xiàn)，一半以上的英國雇主預計AI技術在未來2年內(nèi)會對他們的員工人數(shù)產(chǎn)生積極影響。

（恭喜讀完，本篇英語詞匯量481左右）
原文出自：2023年6月17日《The Economist》Finance & economics版塊

精讀筆記來源于：自由英語之路

本文翻譯整理: Irene

本文編輯校對: Irene
僅供個人英語學習交流使用。

【補充資料】（來自于網(wǎng)絡）
Experis是萬寶盛華ManpowerGroup的一部分，總部位于美國威斯康星州密爾沃基市，是一家全球領先的人力資源和就業(yè)解決方案提供商。Experis提供的服務包括人才招聘、人才咨詢、員工培訓、人才管理和靈活雇傭解決方案等。靈活雇傭解決方案包括合同工、臨時工和遠程工作等，以滿足企業(yè)短期項目或季節(jié)性需求的人才需求。

【重點句子】（3個）
AFTER ASTONISHING breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap.
在人工智能取得驚人的突破后，許多人擔心他們最終會成為經(jīng)濟廢料堆（失業(yè)）。

While AI may be efficient at some tasks, it may be less good at others, such as management and working out what others need. ?
雖然 AI 在某些任務上可能很高效，但在其他任務上可能不那么出色，比如管理和了解他人的需求。

If workers using it become more efficient, profits at their company could rise which would then allow bosses to ramp up hiring.
如果AI讓工人變得更有效率，他們公司的利潤就會增加，然后老板們就會增加招聘。