“Social distancing” is, in fact, an umbrella term that comprises several very complex interventions for keeping healthy people spaced apart from anyone who could be infectious. Measures range from telling people to avoid crowds to issuing wholesale stay-at-home orders, with just about endless variations and possible combinations. Each of these may work to differing degrees, and they come with varying social and economic costs. When we ask whether social distancing “works,” we’re collapsing all these boundaries.

? ? ? ?實際上，“社交隔離”是一個范疇詞，包含多種復雜干預手段，目的是讓健康人群遠離可能具有傳染性的人群，手段輕的包括告誡人們不要聚眾，重的包括頒布居家隔離行政命令，兩者之間可以有多種不同的可行組合，用以應對不同程度的疫情，造成的社會經濟損失也不一樣。當我們討論社交隔離“是否有效”的時候，其實是模糊了不同手段之間的界限。

In general, once it’s clear the spread of a new virus as dangerous as this one has not been contained by testing and contact tracing, and for which there isn’t any treatment or vaccine, more drastic forms of social distancing are the only options left to slow it down. But the body of knowledge about social distancing in all its forms is changing rapidly in real time, as the pandemic brings a blizzard of new data, research, and analysis. Say anything on some subjects, and there’s quite a good chance it could be out of date in hours, if not minutes.

? ? ? ? 通常而言，當一種像新冠肺炎一樣危險的新病毒開始傳播時，如果未能通過檢測和軌跡跟蹤對其進行有效控制，也沒有任何治療手段和疫苗，采取更嚴格的社交隔離措施就成了延緩疫情傳播的唯一途徑。不過，伴隨疫情中積累的海量新數據和研究分析，對不同類型社交隔離的認知也在實時發(fā)生快速變化。對各類防疫問題的論斷，可能幾小時甚至幾分鐘內就會過時。

First, on the question of large gatherings, and the degree to which their prohibition slows viral spread. Covid-19 outbreaks appear to have spiraled out from large religious meetings both in South Korea and in France, each resulting in thousands of infections. A soccer match was at the epicenter of Italy’s devastating wave. Avoiding crowded living conditions, though, isn’t always feasible.

? ? ? ?首先是大規(guī)模集會以及限制集會能否有效緩解病毒擴散的問題?？梢钥吹?，韓國、法國的大型宗教集會都帶來了新冠病毒的傳播，各造成數千例感染。意大利的一場足球賽也造成了當地疫情的一輪大爆發(fā)。不過，限制集會有時候并不可行。

What about travel restrictions? Taken together, the studies suggest that domestic travel restrictions can delay influenza outbreaks for about a week; while international border closures may extend that window to 2 months.

? ? ? ?那么出行限制呢？綜合各項研究可以看出，限制國內旅行可將疫情爆發(fā)延緩一周左右，而關閉國境可將窗口期延長至2個月。

The question of school closures has been especially contentious, given the major social costs of the intervention.

? ? ? ?而關于封校，考慮到其社會成本過大，一直是特別有爭議的問題。

In addition to the known benefits to social distancing, there are devastating costs. Confined living, unemployment, and other pandemic pressures can increase the already high burden of family abuse and violence, for example. Reports from several countries already suggest that an epidemic of interpersonal violence could be traveling alongside the virus. Studies confirm that being quarantined or in isolation takes a heavy psychological toll, sometimes even long after it’s over.

? ? ? ?社交隔離除了帶來上述好處之外，也會造成極大的損失。居家隔離、失業(yè)以及疫情帶來的其他壓力正在讓家暴進一步升級。多個國家的報告顯示，隨著病毒蔓延，人身暴力也在不斷加劇。研究表明，防疫隔離會帶來嚴重的心理負擔，造成的影響有時在隔離結束后仍將長期持續(xù)。

That doesn’t mean we face a trade-off between protection from Covid-19 and protection of the economy: Both are necessary. A 2005 analysis of the potential economic impact of a pandemic stressed that mass deaths damage the economy, too.

? ? ? ?但這并不是說我們要在控制疫情和維持經濟之間做選擇：兩者同樣重要。2005年，一份報告研究了疫情可能對經濟造成的影響，指出人口的大量死亡也會影響經濟。

We don’t know at what scale, and for how long, social distancing measures will be needed or can be sustained. According to an Australian modeling study, we need at least 70 percent of the population to stick to social distancing rules to make a serious difference. When people aren’t committed to the measures, cannot comply, or don’t understand critical aspects of what they are supposed to do, then it can be a struggle to maintain community-wide social distancing. When solidarity and trust have been high, though, and enough people believed it was essential, it has been sustained.

? ? ? ?社交隔離措施究竟要采取多大規(guī)模，維持多長時間，我們不得而知。澳大利亞的一項模擬研究表明，至少要有70%的人口嚴格遵守社交隔離規(guī)定，才能形成實際效果。如果民眾不遵守要求、服從安排，不理解究竟要怎么做，想要維持社區(qū)水平的社交隔離就會非常困難。如果人人都能不聚集，對防疫措施保持高度信任，有足夠多的人能意識到社交隔離的重要性，隔離措施就能持續(xù)下去。