They are the questions hanging over America and, thus, the West. Will the man who tried to overturn the results of the presidential election in 2020, threatened to disband the world’s most powerful military alliance and played footsie with Vladimir Putin, decide that he wants to run again? If so, can he be stopped? It may seem premature to ask. But the first primary of 2024 is closer in time than the last general election, 94 weeks ago. And, despite his poor record in office and his unconscionable behaviour after America’s voters kicked him out, Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party has strengthened.

【1】play footsie with sb 與某人碰腳調(diào)情

【2】unconscionable 不合理的；過分的

這些問題一直困擾著美國，因此也困擾著西方。這個曾試圖推翻2020年總統(tǒng)大選結果、威脅要解散世界上最強大的軍事聯(lián)盟、還曾與弗拉基米爾?普京“曖昧”的人，會決定再次參選嗎？如果他決定參選，他能被阻止嗎？現(xiàn)在提出這個問題似乎為時過早。但距離2024年的第一次初選，比94周前的上一次大選時間更近。而且，盡管唐納德·特朗普執(zhí)政期間的糟糕政績，以及在美國選民把他趕下臺后，他又表現(xiàn)出不合理行為，但他對共和黨的控制卻加強了。

The thumping defeat of Liz Cheney in her Wyoming primary this week matters, because it robs Congress of a brave, principled conservative, and because it fits a pattern. Not all the candidates endorsed by Mr Trump have won their primaries. But most of them have done so. Perhaps a greater sign of his influence is that many of the losing candidates sought his endorsement, too. These contests have not been over different flavours of conservatism, but over which contender is the most maga. Of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach the president for what he did on January 6th 2021, eight are either retiring or have been retired by primary voters. At the same time, the party’s nominees for key positions in some states’ administration of elections are people who support Mr Trump’s dangerous claim that the vote in 2020 was stolen.

利茲·切尼本周在懷俄明州初選中的慘敗至關重要，因為它讓國會失去了一位勇敢、有原則的保守派，也因為它符合一種模式。并非所有得到特朗普支持的候選人都贏得了初選。但他們中的大多數(shù)人已經(jīng)贏得。也許他的影響力的一個更大的標志是，許多落選的候選人也尋求他的支持。這些競爭并不是關于不同風格的保守主義，而是看哪一個競爭者最有影響力。因特朗普在2021年1月6日的所作所為，眾議院的10名共和黨人投票彈劾總統(tǒng)，現(xiàn)在，有8人要么退休，要么已經(jīng)在初選選民的“幫助”下“被迫”退休。與此同時，共和黨在一些州的選舉管理中提名關鍵職位的人，是支持特朗普有關2020年選票被盜的危險言論的人。

Early polling on whom Republican voters want as their champion in 2024 suggests that about 50% of them say Mr Trump. In a system where a candidate can knock out most rivals with a solid 30% of support in the early states, it is a formidable starting position. A few months ago Republican voters, tiring of Mr Trump, looked as if they might switch to Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, or anyone else offering maga without the drama. Today Mr DeSantis would be more likely to conclude that his best shot at the White House is as Mr Trump’s running-mate.

【1】knock out 淘汰

【2】running-mate 競選伙伴

關于共和黨選民希望誰成為2024年總統(tǒng)的早期民調(diào)顯示，約50%的人回答說特朗普。在一個候選人可以在早期各州以30%的支持率擊敗大多數(shù)競爭對手的體系中，這是一個強大的起點。幾個月前，厭倦了特朗普的共和黨選民似乎可能會轉而支持佛羅里達州州長羅恩?德桑蒂斯，或任何一個不帶戲劇性的有影響力的人。如今，德桑蒂斯更有可能得出這樣的結論：他入主白宮的最佳機會是成為特朗普的競選伙伴。

A lot could change between now and the first Republican primary, but unless Mr Trump either decides he does not want to run, or something prevents him from doing so, it looks as if he would win the Republican nomination. That leads to the second question: could he be stopped?

從現(xiàn)在到第一次共和黨初選之間，很多事情可能會發(fā)生變化，但除非特朗普決定他不想?yún)⑦x，或者有什么事情阻止他參選，否則他似乎會贏得共和黨提名。這就引出了第二個問題：他能被阻止(參加競選)嗎?

One obstacle is the law. The most recent of the many investigations Mr Trump faces was revealed when the fbi came knocking at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. A lot remains unknown. The unsealed warrant says that the Department of Justice sought classified documents that Mr Trump took from the White House. Once his investigation is complete, the attorney-general, Merrick Garland, may decide that the documents are safe and his work is done. Whether a prosecution follows may depend on how sensitive the documents were.

其中一個絆腳石是法律。在特朗普面臨的眾多調(diào)查中，最近的一次是在本月早些時候FBI“搜查”海湖莊園時披露的。還有很多事情尚不清楚。這份公開的搜查令稱，司法部尋找了特朗普從白宮拿走的機密文件。一旦調(diào)查完成，司法部長梅里克·加蘭德可能會認定這些文件是安全的，他的工作也完成了。之后是否會被起訴，可能取決于這些文件的敏感程度。

Many Republicans, including Mr DeSantis, have rallied behind Mr Trump. The most vocal are calling for the impeachment of Mr Garland and demanding the defunding of the fbi—a double standard considering that they wanted Hillary Clinton to be locked up for her use of a private email server. However, Democrats should remember that the precedent cuts both ways: in 2016 the Justice Department declined to prosecute Mrs Clinton.

包括德桑蒂斯在內(nèi)的許多共和黨人已經(jīng)團結起來支持特朗普。呼聲最高的是要求彈劾加蘭德，并要求撤資聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局——考慮到他們想讓希拉里?克林頓因使用私人電子郵件服務器而被關押，這是雙標。然而，民主黨人應該記住，先例有利有弊：2016年，司法部拒絕起訴希拉里。

Three other investigations—into whether Mr Trump lied on his tax returns, whether he broke the law on January 6th, and whether he took part in a criminal conspiracy to overturn the election in Fulton County, Georgia, in November 2020—are equally uncertain. Like anyone else, Mr Trump deserves the presumption of innocence. And his opponents should be wary of repeating old mistakes: at each turn they have hoped that something, anything (the Mueller investigation, the first impeachment trial, the second impeachment trial) would take him out of the picture. And yet here he is.

其他三項調(diào)查，即特朗普是否在納稅申報單上撒謊，他是否在1月6日違反了法律，以及他是否參與了推翻2020年11月佐治亞州富爾頓縣選舉的犯罪陰謀，同樣不確定。和其他人一樣，特朗普理應得到無罪推定。他的對手應該警惕重蹈覆轍：他們每一次都希望有什么事情、任何事情(通俄門調(diào)查、第一次彈劾審判、第二次彈劾審判)會把他排除在外。但他還是來了。

In fact, these legal troubles increase the incentive for Mr Trump to run. Out of politics, he is just a private citizen facing some prosecutions. For as long as he is a potential president, he is the head of a movement that won 74m votes last time round. At that point Mr Garland and others running the investigations would face an unenviable choice: either put a presidential candidate on trial or choose not to uphold the rule of law. Being on trial and even being convicted could fuel Mr Trump’s return. A revenge tour, in which he campaigned on retribution for his persecution by the legal system, would play to Mr Trump’s worst instincts and further exhaust America’s institutions.

事實上，這些法律糾紛增加了特朗普競選的動機。在政治之外，他只是一個面臨一些指控的普通公民。只要他還是一個潛在的總統(tǒng)，他就是上一輪贏得7400萬選票的競選活動的領袖。到那時，加蘭德和其他負責調(diào)查的人將面臨一個艱難的選擇：要么審判一位總統(tǒng)候選人，要么選擇不維護法治。接受審判甚至被定罪都可能推動特朗普回歸。特朗普的復仇之旅將激發(fā)特朗普最壞的本能，并進一步耗盡美國的制度。他在競選中主張對自己受到法律體系迫害進行報復。

In another era, the influence of corporate America might have helped sideline Mr Trump. Yet the political clout of big companies is waning, as the Republican Party becomes a movement of working-class whites and an increasing number of conservative Hispanics. That movement protests against not just foreign entanglements, illegal immigration and cuts to Medicare and Social Security, but also trade and left-wing identity politics advanced by the global, managerial elite. Many Republicans think the party has for too long put the interests of the s&p 500 ahead of American workers. Little wonder that big companies now regard the prospect of a Republican triumph in November with trepidation. What remains of the Republican establishment acts like a government in exile, muttering about Mr Trump’s takeover, but lacking the means to reverse it.

【1】trepidation 驚悸；不安

在另一個時代，美國企業(yè)的影響力可能有助于把特朗普邊緣化。然而，大公司的政治影響力正在減弱，因為共和黨變成了一個由白人工人階級和越來越多的拉美裔保守派組成的運動。這場運動不僅抗議與外國的糾紛、非法移民、削減老年醫(yī)保制度以及社會保障，還抗議由全球管理精英推動的貿(mào)易和左翼身份政治。許多共和黨人認為，共和黨把標普500指數(shù)的利益置于美國工人的利益之上的時間太長了。難怪大公司現(xiàn)在對共和黨在11月的勝利前景感到不安。剩下的共和黨建制派就像一個流亡政府，咕噥著特朗普的接管，但缺乏扭轉局面的手段。

More crosses than ticksIf neither his party nor the law will stop Mr Trump, what can? Poetic justice recommends a do-or-die run for the Oval Office by Ms Cheney, in a bid to siphon off Republican voters who cannot bear to put a cross next to the name of a Democrat. If enough of them switched in red states in a close race, it could deny Mr Trump victory in the electoral college.

【1】 siphon off 抽走

如果他的政黨和法律都不能阻止特朗普，還有什么能阻擋他呢？報應建議切尼女士參加一場生死攸關的競選，以吸引那些無法忍受在民主黨人的名字旁邊劃十字的共和黨選民。如果他們中有足夠多的人在勢均力敵的競選中轉而支持紅色州，這可能會讓特朗普在選舉人團選舉中無法獲勝。

Better would be to depend on the good sense of the American people. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections. In the four years of his presidency he lost his party both houses of Congress as well as the White House. Many voters understand that he is dangerous and undemocratic and most do not want him back in office. The reason Mr Trump campaigns so hard against the trustworthiness of the ballot box is that he knows the ballot box can defeat him.

【1】trustworthiness 值得信任；可靠

更好的辦法是依靠美國人民的良好判斷力。人們很容易忘記特朗普輸?shù)袅诉x舉。在他四年的總統(tǒng)任期中，他失去了他的政黨，國會兩院和白宮。許多選民明白，他是危險的、不民主的，大多數(shù)人不希望他再次上臺。特朗普之所以極力反對投票箱的可信度，是因為他知道投票箱可以擊敗他。