Journal of Development Economics2023年第4期

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

Irrigation and gender roles

灌溉與性別角色

Per G. Fredriksson, Satyendra Kumar Gupta

This paper proposes that ancestral irrigation is associated with lower levels of contemporary female labor force participation. We test and provide support for this novel hypothesis using an exogenous measure of irrigation and cross-country data, data from the World Values Survey, the Afrobarometer, and the Asian Barometer. To explore a possible mechanism and cultural persistence, we use the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample, the European Social Survey, and the American Community Survey. The gender-based division of labor in pre-modern agriculture appears to be a possible channel between irrigation and contemporary female labor force participation rates. Evidence from second-generation immigrants suggests cultural transmission across generations, especially via males.

本文提出，祖?zhèn)鞴喔扰c當(dāng)代女性勞動(dòng)力參與率較低有關(guān)。我們使用來(lái)自世界價(jià)值觀調(diào)查、非洲晴雨表和亞洲晴雨表的外生測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)，測(cè)試并支持這一新的假設(shè)。為了探索可能的機(jī)制和文化持久性，我們使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的跨文化樣本、歐洲社會(huì)調(diào)查和美國(guó)社區(qū)調(diào)查。前現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)中基于性別的勞動(dòng)分工似乎是灌溉和當(dāng)代女性勞動(dòng)力參與率之間的一個(gè)可能渠道。來(lái)自第二代移民的證據(jù)表明，文化傳播是跨代的，特別是通過(guò)男性。

Public governance versus corporate governance: Evidence from oil drilling in forests

公共治理與公司治理:來(lái)自森林石油鉆探的證據(jù)

James Cust, Torfinn Harding, Hanna Krings, Alexis Rivera-Ballesteros

Petroleum companies look for oil and gas in some of the most remote and biodiverse forested areas on the planet. To study how local environmental footprints vary across countries and companies, we combine global company-level geo-coded data on oil drilling with high resolution data on forest loss. We find that oil wells drilled in countries with better public governance, measured by democracy scores, are associated with substantially lower forest loss in the period after drilling. In contrast, we do not find evidence of less forest clearance among companies with presumptively ‘better’ corporate governance practices, such as major international companies, publicly listed companies, or members of an industry association committed to high environmental standards. These results do not support a “pollution halo” effect, whereby companies might bring better environmental practices with them, exceeding domestic environmental standards.

石油公司在地球上一些最偏遠(yuǎn)、生物多樣性最豐富的森林地區(qū)尋找石油和天然氣。為了研究不同國(guó)家和公司對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)境的影響如何不同，我們將全球公司層面的石油鉆探地理編碼數(shù)據(jù)與森林損失的高分辨率數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合起來(lái)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在以民主得分衡量的公共治理較好的國(guó)家，鉆井后的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)森林損失明顯較低。相比之下，我們沒(méi)有在那些假定公司治理實(shí)踐“較好”的公司中發(fā)現(xiàn)森林砍伐較少的證據(jù)，比如大型國(guó)際公司、上市公司或致力于高環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)成員。這些結(jié)果不支持“污染光環(huán)”效應(yīng)，即企業(yè)可能帶來(lái)更好的環(huán)境實(shí)踐，超過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

Assessors influence results: Evidence on enumerator effects and educational impact evaluations

評(píng)估者影響結(jié)果:枚舉者效應(yīng)和教育影響評(píng)估的證據(jù)

Daniel Rodriguez-Segura, Beth E. Schueler

A significant share of education research uses data collected by “enumerators.” It is well-documented that “enumerator effects”—or inconsistent practices among the people who administer measurement tools—can be a key source of error in survey data collection. However, it is less understood whether this is a problem for academic assessments. We leverage a remote phone-based mathematics assessment of primary school students and survey of their parents in Kenya. Enumerators, who were teachers in our partner's network, were randomized to students to study the presence of enumerator effects. We find that both the academic assessment and survey were prone to enumerator effects and use simulation to show that these effects were large enough to lead to spurious results at a troubling rate in impact evaluations. We therefore recommend assessment administrators randomize enumerators at the student level, orthogonal to categories being compared (e.g., treatment/control groups), and train enumerators to minimize bias.

很大一部分教育研究使用了由“枚舉者”收集的數(shù)據(jù)。有充分的證據(jù)表明，“枚舉者效應(yīng)”(即管理測(cè)量工具的人員之間不一致的做法)可能是調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)收集錯(cuò)誤的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵來(lái)源。然而，對(duì)于學(xué)術(shù)評(píng)估來(lái)說(shuō)，這是否是一個(gè)問(wèn)題，人們還不太了解。我們利用遠(yuǎn)程電話對(duì)肯尼亞的小學(xué)生進(jìn)行數(shù)學(xué)評(píng)估，并對(duì)他們的父母進(jìn)行調(diào)查。在我們合作伙伴的網(wǎng)絡(luò)中，枚舉員是教師，他們被隨機(jī)分配到學(xué)生中，以研究枚舉員效應(yīng)的存在。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，學(xué)術(shù)評(píng)估和調(diào)查都容易產(chǎn)生枚舉效應(yīng)，并使用模擬來(lái)表明這些效應(yīng)足以在影響評(píng)估中導(dǎo)致令人不安的虛假結(jié)果。因此，我們建議評(píng)估管理員在學(xué)生水平上隨機(jī)篩選人員，與被比較的類別(例如，治療/對(duì)照組)正交，并培訓(xùn)篩選人員以盡量減少偏見。

Circle of fortune: The long-term impact of Western customs institution in China

財(cái)富圈:西方海關(guān)制度對(duì)中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期影響

Gan Jin

This paper examines the long-run effect of the customs institution founded by the Chinese Maritime Customs (CMC), a foreign-run customs agency established in the mid-19th century in China. A historical natural experiment is exploited to identify a causal effect: in 1902, the CMC took over a number of Chinese Native Customs stations, for which it established clear procedural guidelines and improved transparency and efficiency, while the other Native Customs stations remained under Chinese authority. Using the historical criterion that determined which Native Customs stations were taken over – those located within a 25 km radius of a CMC customs station – as a source of exogenous variation in the quality of the local customs institution, I show that counties historically affected by the CMC institution are more developed today relative to nearby but unaffected areas. Moreover, today’s business and bureaucracy in the affected counties suffer less from corruption, suggesting that the long-run effect of institutions can be explained by the cultural norms it fostered in the local society.

Information, migration, and the value of clean air

信息、移民和清潔空氣的價(jià)值

Xuwen Gao, Ran Song, Christopher Timmins

Using a variant of the Rosen-Roback model of inter-city migration that incorporates public access to air quality information, we demonstrate that information constraints create a wedge between revealed and true hedonic prices for pollution that depends upon individuals’ perception biases. We empirically test our theoretical predictions by leveraging the unexpected disclosure of PM2.5 data in China. We find that migration decisions become much more responsive to pollution and that the hedonic price of avoiding PM2.5 exposure nearly doubles – from 171 to 336 Chinese Yuan – in response to the information shock. Our results highlight the role of imperfect information in migration decisions and its impact on non-market valuation in countries where public access to information is restricted.

Competition and corruption: Highway corruption in West Africa

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與腐敗:西非高速公路的腐敗

Jeremy Foltz, Kangli Li

Petty corruption in the developing world impedes citizens from receiving public services and operating their businesses. In this paper, we show the importance of market structure in determining a corruption equilibrium. We do this in the context of highway merchandise transportation in West Africa, where checkpoint officials frequently stop truck drivers for petty bribes. We exploit a road system with two alternative corridors to develop a model which predicts that checkpoints in the two competing corridors follow a Bertrand game as they set price equal to the marginal cost. Moreover, when costs to pass through one corridor increase due to road construction, checkpoints in the other corridor raise prices and keep drivers waiting for longer. We estimate a difference-in-differences model to confirm that road construction did increase both bribes and enforced delays for stops in the unaffected corridor. This work demonstrates the importance of competition among corrupted officials to facilitate public services for drivers and suggests that the effectiveness of a local intervention can be offset by reallocating customers towards officials who are not affected by it.

Pumps, prosperity and household power: Experimental evidence on irrigation pumps and smallholder farmers in Kenya

水泵、繁榮與家庭力量:肯尼亞灌溉水泵與小農(nóng)的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Julian Dyer, Jeremy Shapiro

Irrigation is a potentially effective technology to improve agricultural incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa, and hand powered irrigation pumps have received significant interest and investment as a solution appropriate to small-scale farmers in this context. This paper describes the results of an RCT impact evaluation of household irrigation pumps in Kenya, where we randomly allocated free pumps to the female head of household via public lotteries. After two years farmers are still making significant use of their pumps and allocating increased time to irrigated agriculture. We find that pumps increase net farm revenue by approximately 13% of the control mean, and pay for themselves within three years. In addition, we find that farmers with irrigation pumps spent less time on off-farm economic activity. Finally, we find that female decisionmaking power increased and domestic violence decreased among treatment households.

灌溉是撒哈拉以南非洲提高農(nóng)業(yè)收入的潛在有效技術(shù)，作為適合小規(guī)模農(nóng)民的解決方案，手動(dòng)灌溉泵獲得了巨大的興趣和投資。本文描述了肯尼亞家庭灌溉水泵隨機(jī)對(duì)照試驗(yàn)影響評(píng)估的結(jié)果，我們通過(guò)公開抽簽的方式將免費(fèi)水泵隨機(jī)分配給家庭的女戶主。兩年后，農(nóng)民仍在大量使用他們的水泵，并將更多的時(shí)間分配給灌溉農(nóng)業(yè)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，抽水機(jī)使農(nóng)業(yè)凈收益增加了約13%的控制平均值，并在三年內(nèi)收回成本。此外，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，擁有灌溉水泵的農(nóng)民花在非農(nóng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)上的時(shí)間更少。最后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在治療家庭中，女性決策權(quán)增加而家庭暴力減少。

Curriculum and national identity: Evidence from the 1997 curriculum reform in Taiwan

課程與民族認(rèn)同:以1997年臺(tái)灣課程改革為例

Wei-Lin Chen, Ming-Jen Lin, Tzu-Ting Yang

This paper examines the causal effects of textbook content on individuals’ national identity, by exploiting a curriculum reform that introduced a new perspective on Taiwan’s history for students entering junior high school after September 1997. Using a repeated nationally representative survey and a regression discontinuity design, we show that students exposed to the new textbooks were more likely to hold exclusive Taiwanese identity rather than dual identity (i.e. Taiwanese and Chinese). The effect was greater for academic track students and those living in neighborhoods where fewer people identify as Taiwanese. In addition, our results suggest that the new curriculum had little impact on people’s political preferences related to Taiwan independence. Finally, we find that the probability of reporting as Taiwanese among old textbook readers converges with that of people reading new textbooks in the long run since the perspectives of old textbooks are in conflict with the recent social trends.

Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China

貿(mào)易政策不確定性與新企業(yè)進(jìn)入:來(lái)自中國(guó)的證據(jù)

Chuantao Cui, Leona Shao-Zhi Li

This study offers novel evidence that reduced trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the destination market promotes domestic entrepreneurial activities in a large developing economy. Exploiting China’s WTO accession as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that Chinese manufacturing industries with greater TPU reduction are associated with relative increases in the new firm entry rate. The TPU effect is more pronounced in industries with lower entry barriers or larger irreversible investments. In addition, TPU reduction fosters new entrants through both the exporting and non-exporting margins and contributes to strengthening regional agglomeration forces. Heterogeneity across regions with varying exporting costs and entry barriers is also identified, illustrating the important synchronization between external openness and internal reform for developing economies. Last, we show that reduction in TPU intensifies industry-level competition, induces better-quality entrants, and that new firm entry plays a non-negligible role in linking TPU reduction to improved economic performance.

本研究提供了新的證據(jù)，表明在大型發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，目的地市場(chǎng)貿(mào)易政策不確定性(TPU)的降低會(huì)促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)。利用中國(guó)加入WTO這一準(zhǔn)自然實(shí)驗(yàn)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，TPU降低程度越高的中國(guó)制造業(yè)，新企業(yè)進(jìn)入率相對(duì)越高。TPU效應(yīng)在進(jìn)入壁壘較低或不可逆投資較大的行業(yè)中更為明顯。此外，降低TPU通過(guò)出口和非出口利潤(rùn)率促進(jìn)新進(jìn)入者，有助于增強(qiáng)區(qū)域集聚力量。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)，在出口成本和進(jìn)入壁壘不同的地區(qū)之間存在異質(zhì)性，這說(shuō)明了對(duì)外開放和內(nèi)部改革對(duì)發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)具有重要的同步作用。最后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，技術(shù)能力的降低加劇了行業(yè)層面的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，促進(jìn)了更高質(zhì)量的進(jìn)入，而新企業(yè)進(jìn)入在技術(shù)能力的降低與經(jīng)濟(jì)績(jī)效的提高之間發(fā)揮著不可忽視的作用。

Sanitation and marriage markets in India: Evidence from the Total Sanitation Campaign

印度的衛(wèi)生和婚姻市場(chǎng):來(lái)自全面衛(wèi)生運(yùn)動(dòng)的證據(jù)

Britta Augsburg, Juan P. Baquero, Sanghmitra Gautam, Paul Rodriguez-Lesmes

This paper measures the additional value of sanitation within the marriage arrangement. We use data from the Indian human development household survey (IHDS) to model the marital decisions of men and women in rural India and to estimate the marital surplus (the gains from being married). We use the model to demonstrate that the government’s Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC) increased marital surplus and changed marriage market outcomes for men and women. Decomposition reveals (i) that sanitation makes it more attractive to be in a marriage for both gender, and (ii) that TSC exposure led to a decrease in the wife’s surplus share, implying a redistribution of gains within the marriage.

The lesser shades of labor coercion: The impact of seigneurial tenure in nineteenth-century Quebec

勞工脅迫的陰影:19世紀(jì)魁北克領(lǐng)主任期的影響

Vincent Geloso, Vadim Kufenko, Alex P. Arsenault-Morin

Can mild forms of labor coercion generate welfare effects as large as more extreme forms? Do these effects persist over time? To answer both questions, we use Quebec’s system of seigneurial tenure (in effect until 1854) that granted landlords market power in the establishment of factories, and restricted worker mobility. This created a mild form of labor coercion as landlords had incentives to reduce employment and wage rates. To measure these effects, we rely on the Constitutional Act of 1791 which stated that all new lands had to be settled under a different tenure system. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that seigneurial tenure significantly depressed wages. The effect on wages is as large, or larger than, causal estimates of significantly more coercive labor regimes. We also find that by 1871, seventeen years after the institution’s abolition, these effects had fully dissipated, suggesting that persistence is not an issue.

Uptake, use, and impact of Islamic savings: Evidence from a field experiment in Pakistan

伊斯蘭儲(chǔ)蓄的吸收、使用和影響:來(lái)自巴基斯坦實(shí)地實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Syedah Ahmad, Robert Lensink, Annika Mueller

We implement a randomized field experiment in Pakistan to evaluate three interventions designed to encourage poor Muslim women to open and use Islamic savings accounts. First, an intervention that increases religious salience by using a religious speech that highlights the purposes, benefits, and desirability of savings and dispels the misconception that all formal saving is impermissible in Islam, mainly by quoting directly from the Quran; in contrast to a conventional speech conveying the same information without quoting from the Quran. Second, a subsidy that covers the account opening fee; compared to no subsidy. Third, assistance with completing the account opening form; compared to no such assistance. We find that the subsidy and assistance encourage greater uptake, and that adding religious salience induced by the religious speech to these efforts prompts even greater uptake — far greater, in fact, than the combination of the conventional speech with subsidy or assistance. The most effective intervention, comprising a religious speech in combination with a subsidy and assistance, increases uptake by approximately 60 percentage points, compared to an approximate increase of 5 percentage points for either subsidy or assistance in combination with the conventional speech. On its own, however, the religious speech does not significantly enhance uptake compared to the conventional speech, indicating that financial as well as educational/administrative constraints, and high cognitive load, present insurmountable barriers to uptake in our context. Therefore, holistic strategies to increase savings account uptake, that recognize and engage with the religious context while at the same time addressing practical barriers, should be prioritized.

Impact of self- or social-regarding health messages: Experimental evidence based on antibiotics purchases

關(guān)于自我或社會(huì)的健康信息的影響:基于抗生素購(gòu)買的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Daixin He, Fangwen Lu, Jianan Yang

We study two interventions in Beijing, China, that provide patients with information on antibiotic resistance via text message to discourage the overuse of antibiotics. The messages were sent once a month for five months. One intervention emphasizes the threat to the recipient's own health and is found to have negligible effects. The other intervention, which highlights the overall threat to society, reduces antibiotics purchases by 17% in dosage without discouraging healthcare visits and other medicine purchases. The results demonstrate that prosocial messaging can have the potential to address public health issues that require collective action.

我們?cè)谥袊?guó)北京研究了兩種干預(yù)措施，通過(guò)短信向患者提供抗生素耐藥性信息，以阻止過(guò)度使用抗生素。這些信息每月發(fā)送一次，持續(xù)了五個(gè)月。一種干預(yù)強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)受援者自身健康的威脅，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)其影響微不足道。另一項(xiàng)干預(yù)措施強(qiáng)調(diào)了對(duì)社會(huì)的整體威脅，將抗生素的用量減少了17%，但沒(méi)有阻礙醫(yī)療服務(wù)和其他藥品的購(gòu)買。結(jié)果表明，親社會(huì)信息傳遞有可能解決需要集體行動(dòng)的公共衛(wèi)生問(wèn)題。

Transparency, governance, and water and sanitation: Experimental evidence from schools in rural Bangladesh

透明度、治理、水和衛(wèi)生設(shè)施:來(lái)自孟加拉國(guó)農(nóng)村學(xué)校的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Umrbek Allakulov, Serena Cocciolo, Binayak Das, Md. Ahasan Habib, ... Anna Tompsett

Can transparency interventions improve WASH service provision? We use a randomized experiment to evaluate the impacts of a transparency intervention, a deliberative multi-stakeholder workshop initiated with a community scorecard exercise, in schools in rural Bangladesh. To measure impacts, we combine survey data, direct observations, and administrative data. The intervention leads to moderate but consistent improvements in knowledge of WASH standards and practices, and institutions for WASH service management, but does not improve school WASH service provision or change WASH facility use patterns. Drawing on rich descriptive data, we suggest several reasons why the intervention we evaluate did not improve WASH service outcomes and propose ways to improve the design of future interventions.

Motivating volunteer health workers in an African capital city

激勵(lì)非洲首都的志愿衛(wèi)生工作者

Mattia Fracchia, Teresa Molina-Millán, Pedro C. Vicente

Community Health Workers (CHWs) are central to health systems. Still, they are typically unpaid volunteers in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper follows all the CHWs in the capital city of Guinea-Bissau, who are non-salaried, and tests the impact of non-financial incentives on health indicators. We analyze two randomized interventions for CHWs: (i) an honorific award aimed at raising their social status; (ii) a video treatment aimed at increasing their perceived task significance. While employing administrative and survey data, we find that the social status intervention, differently from the task significance one, causes clear improvements in household health, particularly for young children.

The macroeconomics of pandemics around the world: Lives versus livelihoods revisited

全球大流行病的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué):重新審視生命與生計(jì)

Ingvild Alm?s, Tessa Bold, Tillmann von Carnap, Selene Ghisolfi, Justin Sandefur

The COVID-19 pandemic led governments around the world to impose unprecedented restrictions on economic activity. Were these restrictions equally justified in poorer countries with fewer demographic risk factors and less ability to weather economic shocks? We develop and estimate a fully specified model of the macroeconomy with epidemiological dynamics, incorporating subsistence constraints in consumption and allowing preferences over “l(fā)ives versus livelihoods” to vary with income. Poorer countries’ demography pushes them unambiguously toward laxer policies. But because both infected and susceptible agents near the subsistence constraint will remain economically active in the face of infection risk and even to some extent under government containment policies, optimal policy in poorer countries pushes in the opposite direction. Moreover, for reasonable income-elasticities of the value of a statistical life, the model can fully rationalize equally strict or stricter policies in poorer countries.

COVID-19大流行導(dǎo)致世界各國(guó)政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)實(shí)施了前所未有的限制。在人口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素較少、抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊能力較弱的較貧窮國(guó)家，這些限制同樣合理嗎?我們開發(fā)和估計(jì)了一個(gè)具有流行病學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的完全指定模型，將生存限制納入消費(fèi)，并允許對(duì)”生命與生計(jì)”的偏好隨著收入的變化而變化。較貧窮國(guó)家的人口結(jié)構(gòu)無(wú)疑會(huì)促使它們采取更寬松的政策。但是，由于在面臨感染風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，甚至在某種程度上在政府的遏制政策下，接近生存限制的受感染和易感病原體在經(jīng)濟(jì)上都將保持活躍，較貧窮國(guó)家的最優(yōu)政策將朝著相反的方向推動(dòng)。此外，由于統(tǒng)計(jì)生命價(jià)值的合理收入彈性，該模型可以充分合理化較貧窮國(guó)家同樣嚴(yán)格或更嚴(yán)格的政策。

Tradition and mortality: Evidence from twin infanticide in Africa

傳統(tǒng)與死亡率:非洲雙胎殺嬰的證據(jù)

James Fenske, Shizhuo Wang

Traditions can limit investment in early life health, even if they have been abandoned. We introduce data on historic twin infanticide and merge it with recent birth records from 23 African countries. We use the full sample and a border sample of adjacent societies with and without past twin infanticide. Both samples provide no evidence that past twin infanticide predicts greater differential twin mortality today. This null result is likely a consequence of suppression efforts by Africans, missionaries, and colonial governments. Where these channels were weak, we find evidence of greater twin mortality today.

傳統(tǒng)可能會(huì)限制對(duì)生命早期健康的投資，即使它們已經(jīng)被拋棄。我們引入了歷史上殺害雙胞胎嬰兒的數(shù)據(jù)，并將其與23個(gè)非洲國(guó)家最近的出生記錄合并。我們使用了全樣本和相鄰社會(huì)的邊界樣本，這些社會(huì)過(guò)去有或沒(méi)有殺害雙胞胎嬰兒的行為。兩個(gè)樣本都沒(méi)有提供任何證據(jù)表明，過(guò)去的殺嬰行為預(yù)示著今天雙胞胎差異死亡率更高。這種無(wú)效的結(jié)果很可能是非洲人、傳教士和殖民政府鎮(zhèn)壓的結(jié)果。在這些渠道薄弱的地方，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了今天雙胞胎死亡率更高的證據(jù)。

Evolution of risk aversion over five years after a major natural disaster

重大自然災(zāi)害后五年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避演變

Nicholas Ingwersen, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Duncan Thomas

The impact of exposure to a major unanticipated natural disaster on the evolution of survivors’ attitudes toward risk is examined, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in combination with rich population-representative longitudinal survey data spanning the five years after the tsunami. Respondents chose among pairs of hypothetical income streams. Those directly exposed to the tsunami made choices consistent with greater willingness to take on risk relative to those not directly exposed to the tsunami. These differences are short-lived: starting a year later, there is no evidence of differences in willingness to take on risk between the two groups. These conclusions hold for tsunami-related exposures measured at the individual and community level. Apparently, tsunami survivors were inclined to assume greater financial risk in the short-term while rebuilding their lives after the disaster.

The women-empowering effect of higher education

高等教育賦予女性權(quán)力的效果

Ahmed Elsayed, Alina Shirshikova

We examine the effects of the large-scale construction of public universities in Egypt during the 1960s and 1970s. We found that opening a local university increased the likelihood of obtaining higher education degrees and had long-lasting positive effects on labor market and marriage outcomes, particularly for women. We give insights on internal migration as a channel and show that migration prior to university enrollment age decreased while migration after that age increased as an outcome of university construction. Local universities reduced men’s migration for study and women’s migration for early marriage. The paper highlights the importance of increasing access to higher education for positive social and labor outcomes, particularly for women.

我們考察了20世紀(jì)60年代和70年代埃及公立大學(xué)大規(guī)模建設(shè)的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在當(dāng)?shù)亻_設(shè)大學(xué)增加了獲得高等教育學(xué)位的可能性，并對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)和婚姻結(jié)果產(chǎn)生了長(zhǎng)期的積極影響，特別是對(duì)女性來(lái)說(shuō)。我們研究了內(nèi)部遷移作為一種渠道，并表明大學(xué)入學(xué)年齡之前的遷移減少，而入學(xué)年齡之后的遷移增加，這是大學(xué)建設(shè)的結(jié)果。地方大學(xué)減少了男性為學(xué)習(xí)而遷移和女性為早婚而遷移。該報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)了增加接受高等教育的機(jī)會(huì)對(duì)積極的社會(huì)和勞動(dòng)成果的重要性，特別是對(duì)婦女來(lái)說(shuō)。

Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers

金融市場(chǎng)不完善、非正規(guī)性和政府支出乘數(shù)

Alok Kumar

Developing countries are characterized by underdeveloped financial markets and a large share of informal sector in economic activity. Evidence suggests that countries with less developed financial sector have lower government spending multipliers. This paper quantifies government spending multipliers in India using an estimated new-Keynesian DSGE model with two types of entrepreneurs: formal and informal and imperfect financial market. In the model, informal entrepreneurs are financially-excluded and the banking sector is monopolistically competitive featuring collateral constraint and sticky interest rates. Results show that the government consumption multiplier is significantly less than one at all horizons. The government investment multiplier is also significantly less than one at shorter horizons, but becomes approximately one at longer horizons.

發(fā)展中國(guó)家的特點(diǎn)是金融市場(chǎng)不發(fā)達(dá)，非正規(guī)部門在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中占很大份額。有證據(jù)表明，金融部門欠發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家政府支出乘數(shù)更低。本文利用估計(jì)的新凱恩斯主義DSGE模型對(duì)印度的政府支出乘數(shù)進(jìn)行了量化，該模型包含正式、非正式和不完全金融市場(chǎng)兩種類型的企業(yè)家。在模型中，非正規(guī)企業(yè)家被金融排斥，銀行部門具有擔(dān)保約束和粘性利率的壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。結(jié)果表明，政府消費(fèi)乘數(shù)在所有層面均顯著小于1。政府投資乘數(shù)在短期內(nèi)也顯著小于1，但在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)約為1。

The nutritional cost of beef bans in India

印度牛肉禁令的營(yíng)養(yǎng)成本

Aparajita Dasgupta, Farhan Majid, Wafa Hakim Orman

We study the impact of beef sale and possession bans in India on women's anemia by leveraging a natural experiment arising from the state-level rollout of beef bans. We hypothesize that these bans differentially affect groups that traditionally eat beef - Muslims, Christians, and Scheduled-Caste Hindus. We compile rich data on beef-ban legislation by states over time and harmonize them with household and individual level data on biomarkers and consumption. Estimating a triple difference-in-differences model, we find that bans reduce women's hemoglobin levels in beef-eating communities by 1.2g/L and increase severe anemia by 27 percent of the mean level.

我們研究了印度牛肉銷售和擁有禁令對(duì)婦女貧血的影響，利用了國(guó)家一級(jí)推出牛肉禁令所產(chǎn)生的自然實(shí)驗(yàn)。我們假設(shè)這些禁令對(duì)傳統(tǒng)上吃牛肉的群體有不同的影響——穆斯林、基督徒和固定種姓的印度教徒。我們匯編了各州在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)對(duì)牛肉禁令立法的豐富數(shù)據(jù)，并將其與家庭和個(gè)人層面的生物標(biāo)志物和消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)協(xié)調(diào)起來(lái)。通過(guò)對(duì)三差對(duì)差模型的估計(jì)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在吃牛肉的社區(qū)，禁令使女性的血紅蛋白水平降低了1.2克/升，嚴(yán)重貧血增加了平均水平的27%。

Endogenous labor migration and remittances: Macroeconomic and welfare consequences

內(nèi)生勞動(dòng)力遷移與僑匯:宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與福利后果

Sokchea Lim, A.K.M. Mahbub Morshed, Stephen J. Turnovsky

This paper develops a macrodynamic model of two small economies – a host country and a labor-exporting developing country – to address the impact of migrant workers and remittances on the two economies. It endogenizes the migration decision as part of the intertemporal utility maximization of households in the developing economy. This setup captures the dynamic process of migration, in which evolving circumstances may lead to fundamental differences from those based on treating remittances as exogenous. Extensive numerical simulations consider two diverse sources of structural change that impinge directly on the migration-remittance relationship. In both cases the long-run impact on the remittance-GDP ratio differs markedly from the immediate response, primarily as a consequence of the impact on the evolving migration during the transition. The welfare consequences of the different constituents – domestic residents, migrant workers, and host economy native workers – are considered. Alternative tax policies to offset effects, deemed adverse, are also discussed.

本文建立了兩個(gè)小型經(jīng)濟(jì)體(東道國(guó)和勞動(dòng)力輸出的發(fā)展中國(guó)家)的宏觀動(dòng)態(tài)模型，以解決移民工人和匯款對(duì)兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的影響。它將遷移決策內(nèi)化為發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體家庭跨期效用最大化的一部分。這種設(shè)置捕捉了移民的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，不斷變化的環(huán)境可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致與那些將匯款視為外生匯款的人的根本區(qū)別。大量的數(shù)值模擬考慮了兩個(gè)不同的結(jié)構(gòu)變化來(lái)源，這些變化直接影響遷移-匯款關(guān)系。在這兩種情況下，對(duì)匯款- gdp比率的長(zhǎng)期影響與直接反應(yīng)有顯著差異，主要是由于在轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中對(duì)不斷變化的移民的影響。考慮了不同組成部分-國(guó)內(nèi)居民、移徙工人和東道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)本國(guó)工人-的福利后果。還討論了抵消負(fù)面影響的替代稅收政策。

The fruits (and vegetables) of crime: Protection from theft and agricultural development

犯罪的水果(和蔬菜):防止盜竊和農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展

Julian Dyer

Fear of crime is a concern in developing countries where rule of law is imperfectly enforced. I use a cluster-randomized field experiment in Kenya to show that reducing fear of theft allows small-scale farmers to adjust their planting and time use decisions, as well as increasing crop yields. I randomly allocated subsidized watchmen to farmers in Kenya, reducing their perceived risk of theft. Farmers offered watchmen were 14 p.p. more likely to have crops they grew for the first time or grew on more land as a result of improved security, sold more crops off-farm, and their farm output per acre was larger by 15% of the control mean. The intervention had positive security spillovers, and led to fewer angry disputes among neighbours. Despite these benefits, this intervention is not profitable for an individual farmer, suggesting a potential role for collective security interventions.

在法治執(zhí)行不完善的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，對(duì)犯罪的恐懼是一個(gè)問(wèn)題。我在肯尼亞進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)隨機(jī)聚類試驗(yàn)，結(jié)果表明，減少對(duì)盜竊的恐懼可以讓小規(guī)模農(nóng)民調(diào)整他們的種植和時(shí)間使用決策，同時(shí)提高作物產(chǎn)量。我給肯尼亞的農(nóng)民隨機(jī)分配了補(bǔ)貼的守望者，減少了他們認(rèn)為的盜竊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。提供守望者的農(nóng)民有14個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，他們更有可能第一次種植莊稼，或由于安全改善而在更多的土地上種植莊稼，出售更多的作物，他們每英畝的農(nóng)場(chǎng)產(chǎn)量比控制平均值高出15%。這種干預(yù)具有積極的安全溢出效應(yīng)，并減少了鄰國(guó)之間的憤怒爭(zhēng)端。盡管有這些好處，但這種干預(yù)對(duì)個(gè)體農(nóng)民來(lái)說(shuō)是無(wú)利可圖的，這表明集體安全干預(yù)可能發(fā)揮作用。

Multi-product firms and misallocation

多產(chǎn)品公司和錯(cuò)配

Wenya Wang, Ei Yang

This paper studies how distortions alter firms’ product decisions. Using two firm-level datasets in China, we find (i) that multi-product (MP) firms are fewer and smaller in China than in the United States and (ii) that the MP probability of a firm is negatively associated with the level of distortion. We build discrete product choices into a heterogeneous firm model à la Melitz (2003) with entry and exit. Firms are subject to a size-dependent distortion that increases in firm-level productivities and product-level tastes. Calibrated to firm-level data moments in the United States and China, the model generates a welfare loss of 30% compared to the distortion-free economy. 24% of the overall loss is from the distorted product margin, while most of the rest is from the static misallocation as in Hsieh and Klenow (2009).

本文研究了市場(chǎng)扭曲對(duì)企業(yè)產(chǎn)品決策的影響。我們將離散的產(chǎn)品選擇構(gòu)建為一個(gè)具有進(jìn)入和退出的異質(zhì)性企業(yè)模型à?la Melitz(2003)。企業(yè)受到一種依賴于規(guī)模的扭曲，這種扭曲增加了企業(yè)層面的生產(chǎn)率和產(chǎn)品層面的品味。該模型根據(jù)美國(guó)和中國(guó)的公司級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)刻校準(zhǔn)，與沒(méi)有扭曲的經(jīng)濟(jì)相比，產(chǎn)生了30%的福利損失。24%的總損失來(lái)自扭曲的產(chǎn)品利潤(rùn)率，其余大部分來(lái)自靜態(tài)的錯(cuò)配，如Hsieh and Klenow(2009)。

Which price is right? A comparison of three standard approaches to measuring prices

哪個(gè)價(jià)格是正確的?衡量?jī)r(jià)格的三種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方法的比較

Anne Fitzpatrick

Prices are fundamental to economists, but there is little guidance on how to collect accurate data on prices in developing countries. I compare antimalarial drug prices collected using three different approaches at outlets in Uganda: vendor inventory listings, prices reported by real customers, and standardized patient (“mystery shopper”, or SP) purchases. I find that prices collected from SPs and real customers are the same after accounting for the composition of drugs purchased, but prices reported by vendors are $0.29-$0.34 (17 percent) lower than the other two approaches. Price disagreement is correlated with vendors reporting fewer drugs on the inventory. The analysis suggests vendors adjust list prices based upon transaction-specific characteristics, but much price disagreement is unexplained. I conclude SP purchases are a preferred approach to price measurement: they accurately capture mean prices paid by customers, and other important transaction characteristics.

對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來(lái)說(shuō)，價(jià)格是基礎(chǔ)，但在如何收集發(fā)展中國(guó)家準(zhǔn)確的價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)方面，幾乎沒(méi)有指導(dǎo)意見。我比較了在烏干達(dá)門店使用三種不同方法收集的抗瘧藥物價(jià)格:供應(yīng)商庫(kù)存清單、真實(shí)客戶報(bào)告的價(jià)格和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的患者(“神秘購(gòu)物者”，或SP)購(gòu)買。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，在考慮了所購(gòu)藥物的成分后，SPs和真實(shí)客戶的價(jià)格是相同的，但供應(yīng)商報(bào)告的價(jià)格比其他兩種方法低0.29- 0.34美元(17%)。價(jià)格分歧與供應(yīng)商在庫(kù)存中報(bào)告的藥物較少有關(guān)。分析表明，供應(yīng)商根據(jù)特定交易的特征調(diào)整標(biāo)價(jià)，但很多價(jià)格差異無(wú)法解釋。我的結(jié)論是，SP購(gòu)買是衡量?jī)r(jià)格的首選方法:它們準(zhǔn)確地捕捉了客戶支付的平均價(jià)格和其他重要的交易特征。

Countering misinformation on social media through educational interventions: Evidence from a randomized experiment in Pakistan

通過(guò)教育干預(yù)打擊社交媒體上的錯(cuò)誤信息:來(lái)自巴基斯坦隨機(jī)實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Ayesha Ali, Ihsan Ayyub Qazi

Fake news is a growing problem in developing countries with potentially far-reaching consequences. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of two educational interventions to counter misinformation among low digital literacy populations in urban Pakistan using a randomized experiment. We find no evidence that video-based general educational messages about misinformation have any statistically significant impact on the ability to correctly identify news items as true or fake. However, when such messages are augmented with personalized feedback based on individuals’ past engagement with fake news, we find an improvement of 3.3 percentage points or 4.5 percent in correctly identifying news (true or fake) relative to the control group. Our results suggest that educational interventions can enable information discernment but their effectiveness depends on how well their features and delivery are customized for the population of interest.

Human capital investment under exit options: Evidence from a natural quasi-experiment

退出選擇下的人力資本投資:來(lái)自自然準(zhǔn)實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Satish Chand, Michael A. Clemens

Groups historically subject to discrimination, such as Jews, could exhibit high investment in education because discrimination spurred emigration—and emigration was facilitated by skill. If emigration is uncertain, the skill investment induced by discrimination could more-than-offset the mechanical reduction in skill stocks at the origin. That is, in theory, the exit option could raise skills at the origin net of departures. Tests of these theories are rare. We examine a natural quasi-experiment in the Republic of Fiji, where a sharp and unexpected rise in discriminatory policy by a dominant ethnic group caused both mass emigration and mass skill investment by the other major ethnic group. We find that the net effect on skills within Fiji was positive: the human capital of the discriminated group remaining in Fiji would have been lower if there had been no emigration option. We test a variety of alternative models for the net increase in skills and find that the emigration option was a necessary causal mechanism.

The effects of international scrutiny on manufacturing workers: Evidence from the Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh

國(guó)際監(jiān)督對(duì)制造業(yè)工人的影響:孟加拉國(guó)拉納廣場(chǎng)(Rana Plaza)倒塌事件的證據(jù)

Laurent Bossavie, Yoonyoung Cho, Rachel Heath

After the tragic factory collapse of Rana Plaza in 2013, both the direct reforms and indirect responses of retailers have plausibly affected workers in the Ready Made Garment (RMG) sector in Bangladesh. These responses included a minimum wage increase, high profile but voluntary audits, and an increased reluctance to subcontract to smaller factories. This paper estimates the net impact of these responses using six rounds of the Labor Force Survey and a triple difference approach that compares garment workers to non-garment workers, in districts containing the vast majority of export garment factories versus other districts, pre versus post Rana Plaza. As intended by the reforms, we find that increased international scrutiny improved working conditions by 0.80 standard deviations. In contrast with what the theory of compensating differentials would suggest, we do not find that workers’ wages were negatively impacted: instead, the post-Rana Plaza responses increased wages by about 10%.

在2013年拉納廣場(chǎng)(Rana Plaza)工廠倒閉的悲劇發(fā)生后，零售商的直接改革和間接反應(yīng)似乎都影響了孟加拉國(guó)成衣行業(yè)的工人。這些回應(yīng)包括提高最低工資，高調(diào)但自愿的審計(jì)，以及越來(lái)越不愿分包給較小的工廠。本文使用六輪勞動(dòng)力調(diào)查和三差法(將擁有絕大多數(shù)出口制衣工廠的地區(qū)與其他地區(qū)、拉納廣場(chǎng)前與拉納廣場(chǎng)后的地區(qū)的制衣工人與非制衣工人進(jìn)行比較)來(lái)估計(jì)這些回答的凈影響。正如改革所預(yù)期的那樣，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，加強(qiáng)國(guó)際監(jiān)督使工作條件改善了0.80個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差。與補(bǔ)償差異理論所表明的相反，我們沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)工人的工資受到負(fù)面影響:相反，拉納廣場(chǎng)事件后的反應(yīng)使工資增加了約10%。