Economic growth no longer

requires?rising emissions

Now this decoupling must accelerate

Nov 10th 2022

Good news on the fight against climate change can be hard to find. Targets?are missed,promises are broken and the planet gets hotter. But as worthies from?across the world meet in Sharm el-Sheikh for the latest?UN?conference to pledge?to do more to tackle this enormous problem, there is at least one reason for?optimism. A large and growing group of mostly rich countries has severed the?link between economic growth and rising emissions of greenhouse gases.?

我們可能很難看到關(guān)于氣候變化的好消息。許多目標(biāo)失敗了，許多承諾被打破，而地球也變得越來越熱。但是，當(dāng)世界各地的知名人士在沙姆沙伊赫出席最新的聯(lián)合國會議并承諾為解決這一巨大問題做出更多努力時，至少有一個消息可以讓我們感到樂觀：已經(jīng)有許多發(fā)達(dá)國家實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和溫室氣體排放之間的“脫鉤”，而這一數(shù)字仍在增長。?

For the three centuries or so since the fossil-fuel age began in earnest, living?standards and emissions have risen hand in hand. Coal, then oil and natural gas,?all brought prosperity while also raising global temperatures. This link has led?some environmentalists and scientists to argue that only a programme of?“degrowth”—reducing the pace of improvements in overall prosperity, or?reversing them altogether—would avoid the worst effects of climate change.

自化石燃料時代真正開始以來的三個多世紀(jì)里，人類生活水平和碳排放量一直?在同步提高。?煤炭，石油和天然氣都在帶來繁榮的同時導(dǎo)致了全球變暖。這種?聯(lián)系讓一些環(huán)保主義者和科學(xué)家認(rèn)為，只有推行“去增長”的方案（減緩整體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度，甚至使經(jīng)濟(jì)倒退）才能避免氣候變化帶來的最壞影響。

?Yet over the past decade a growing number of countries—33 by?The Economist?’?s?count, home to over 1bn people—have managed to increase?their?gdp?while reducing their emissions. After a peak in 2007 America reduced?its territorial emissions from 6.13bn tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent to?5.26bn before the pandemic. And that is not because Americans are simply?importing their toys and electronics from dirtier places. Strikingly, consumption?emissions, which include a measure of the carbon embedded in imports, have?fallen by 15% over the same period.?

然而，根據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的統(tǒng)計，在過去的十年中，越來越多的國家（合計人口數(shù)量超過10億的33個國家）已經(jīng)成功地在提高GDP的同時減少他們的碳排放。美國在2007年達(dá)到碳排放頂峰后，將其國內(nèi)碳排放量從61.3億噸二氧化碳當(dāng)量減少到疫情前的52.6億噸。而這并不是因為美國人從更臟的地方進(jìn)口他們的玩具和電子產(chǎn)品。令人驚奇的是，美國消費碳排放（包含進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品中的碳排放折算量）也在同一時期下降了15%。

?Decoupling is largely a result of two big shifts. One is the changing structure of?economies. As countries became richer they expanded their service sectors,?which use less energy than manufacturing. In Britain, the birthplace of the?Industrial Revolution, four-fifths of output is now generated by accountants,?shop assistants and other service workers. Even in Germany, famed for its?industrial prowess, manufacturing’s share of?GDP?is falling. That has reduced the?energy intensity of growth.?

（?經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和碳排放）?“脫鉤”在很大程度上得益于兩個大轉(zhuǎn)變。?一個是經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。?隨著國家變得更加富有，他們擴(kuò)張了服務(wù)業(yè)，而服務(wù)業(yè)部門比制造業(yè)所需的能源更少。在（第一次）工業(yè)革命的發(fā)源地英國，現(xiàn)在有五分之四的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出是由會計、店員和其他服務(wù)業(yè)從業(yè)人員創(chuàng)造的。即使在以工業(yè)實力聞名的德國，制造業(yè)在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中的所占比重也在下降。經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化降低了實現(xiàn)單位經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所需的能源量。

?Second, imports are getting greener. In the decade after the financial crisis,?China’s export sector decarbonised faster than the rest of its economy. This has?helped reduce the total carbon footprint of rich countries. Furthermore,?manufacturing is shifting out of China, which is more polluting, per dollar?of?GDP,?than India or Indonesia.?

第二，?進(jìn)口商品越來越綠色。?

（?2008?年）?金融危機(jī)后的十年里，中國出口部?門減少碳排放的速度比其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門快。這有助于減少富裕國家的總體碳足跡。此外，制造業(yè)正在從中國轉(zhuǎn)移出去，而根據(jù)國民生產(chǎn)總值計算，中國制造業(yè)的污染程度要比印度或印度尼西亞要高。

This decoupling is unambiguously good news. But, with the link unbroken in?many poorer countries, it has not been enough to reduce the pace of increase in?global emissions. The task is therefore to speed up decoupling. That will not only?demonstrate that tackling climate change and improving living standards can go?together; it will also allow poorer parts of the world to use more of the remaining?global carbon budget to get richer.?

這種“脫鉤”明顯是好消息。但是，由于許多較貧窮國家并未實現(xiàn)“脫鉤”，部分富裕國家的“脫鉤”還不足以減緩全球碳排放的增長速度。因此，我們的任務(wù)是加快“脫鉤”速度。這不僅可以向大家證明應(yīng)對氣候變化和提高生活水平可以同步進(jìn)行，還可以使世界上較貧窮的地區(qū)能夠利用更多剩余的“全球碳?預(yù)算”來發(fā)展當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)。

?Hearteningly, there are reasons to think such an acceleration is possible. So far,?decoupling has been achieved largely by reducing the energy needed per unit of?output. But there are big gains to be had from making energy greener in the first?place. Thanks to investment in renewables and greater electrification, such gains?could soon be realised. That might even boost long-term growth:an economy that must scrimp and save to conserve energy is less dynamic than one in which?power is green, abundant and cheap.?

令人振奮的是，我們有理由認(rèn)為這種提速是可能的。到目前為止，“脫鉤”主要是通過減少單位產(chǎn)出所需能源來實現(xiàn)的。但假如我們從一開始就使用更加綠色的能源的話，我們就能獲得巨大收益。得益于對可再生能源的投資和更廣泛?的電氣化進(jìn)程，我們也許很快就可以獲取這種收益。這甚至可能促進(jìn)長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，因為一個必須靠節(jié)衣縮食以節(jié)約能源的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，其活力不如一個擁有綠色、豐富和廉價能源的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。?

Some environmentalists may fret that celebrating such good news can have a?perverse effect, by breeding complacency or making fighting climate change?seem less urgent. In fact, the lack of a trade-off between improving living?standards and tackling climate change should be a reason to go faster still. It?means one less excuse for timidity in Sharm el-Sheikh.?

一些環(huán)保主義者也許擔(dān)心為這種好消息而慶?？赡軙a(chǎn)生反作用，?因為這樣會滋生自滿情緒，或者使應(yīng)對氣候變化這一任務(wù)看起來不那么緊迫。事實上，如果我們不需要在提高生活水平和應(yīng)對氣候變化兩者之間糾結(jié)的話，我們可以加快我們前進(jìn)的步伐。這也意味著在沙姆沙伊赫的代表們可以大展拳腳。