The Economic journal 2023年第3期

Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers

多產(chǎn)品定價(jià):來自大型零售商的理論和證據(jù)

Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 905–927, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac088

We study a unique dataset with comprehensive coverage of daily prices in large multi-product retailers in Israel. Retail stores synchronise price changes around occasional ‘peak’ days when they reprice around 10% of their products. To assess aggregate implications of partial price synchronisation, we develop a new model in which multi-product firms face economies of scope in price adjustment, and synchronisation is endogenous. Synchronisation of price changes attenuates the average price response to monetary shocks, but only high degrees of synchronisation can substantially strengthen the real effects of monetary policy shocks. Our calibrated model generates real effects similar in magnitude to those in M. Golosov, and R.E. Lucas, Journal of Political Economy (2007), vol. 115, pp. 171–99.

我們研究了一個(gè)獨(dú)特的數(shù)據(jù)集，全面覆蓋了以色列大型多產(chǎn)品零售商的每日價(jià)格。零售店在偶爾的”峰值”日前后同步價(jià)格變化，屆時(shí)他們會(huì)重新定價(jià)約10%的產(chǎn)品。為了評(píng)估部分價(jià)格同步的總體影響，我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)新的模型，在該模型中，多產(chǎn)品公司面臨價(jià)格調(diào)整的范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)，而同步是內(nèi)生性的。價(jià)格變化的同步性減弱了貨幣政策沖擊對(duì)平均價(jià)格的反應(yīng)，但只有高度的同步性才能顯著增強(qiáng)貨幣政策沖擊的實(shí)際效應(yīng)。我們的校準(zhǔn)模型產(chǎn)生了與M. Golosov和R.E. Lucas在《政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)雜志》(2007)第115卷第171-99頁(yè)中提出的實(shí)際效應(yīng)在量級(jí)上相似的效應(yīng)。

Trends in Assortative Mating and Offspring Outcomes?

選擇性婚配和后代結(jié)果的趨勢(shì)

Bernt Bratsberg, Simen Markussen, Oddbj?rn Raaum, Knut R?ed, Ole R?geberg

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 928–950, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac071

We study assortative mating of Norwegian parents over five decades and its consequences for offspring outcomes. Parents are characterised by the earnings decile of their parents (the offspring's grandparents) as an indicator of social class. While assortative mating has remained stable across decades, parenthood has become more skewed toward the higher classes. Examining the influence on offspring education and employment, we find that the marginal effect of one parent's class is smaller the higher is the class of the other. Overall, mating trends have contributed to slight improvements in average education and employment and reduced inequality in the offspring generation.

我們研究了挪威父母50多年來的選型交配及其對(duì)后代結(jié)果的影響。父母的特點(diǎn)是他們的父母(后代的祖父母)的收入十分位數(shù)作為社會(huì)階層的指標(biāo)。盡管幾十年來同型婚配一直保持穩(wěn)定，為人父母卻越來越傾向于上層社會(huì)。考察對(duì)子女教育和就業(yè)的影響，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)父母一方的階層越高，邊際效應(yīng)越小?？傮w而言，擇偶趨勢(shì)對(duì)平均教育和就業(yè)水平略有改善，并減少了后代的不平等。

The Merit Primacy Effect

功績(jī)優(yōu)先效應(yīng)

Alexander W Cappelen, Karl Ove Moene, Siv-Elisabeth Skjelbred, Bertil Tungodden

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 951–970, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac082

A long history in economics going back to Adam Smith has argued that people give primacy to merit—rather than luck—in distributive choices. We provide a theoretical framework formalising the merit primacy effect, and study it in a novel experiment where third-party spectators redistribute from high earners to low earners in situations where both merit and luck determine earnings. We identify a strong and consistent merit primacy effect in the spectator behaviour. The results shed new light on inequality acceptance in society, by showing how just a little bit of merit can make people significantly more inequality accepting.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的悠久歷史可以追溯到亞當(dāng)·斯密(Adam Smith)，他認(rèn)為，在分配選擇中，人們會(huì)優(yōu)先考慮功績(jī)，而不是運(yùn)氣。我們提供了一個(gè)理論框架來形成化價(jià)值首因效應(yīng)，并在一個(gè)新穎的實(shí)驗(yàn)中對(duì)其進(jìn)行了研究，在價(jià)值和運(yùn)氣都決定收入的情況下，第三方觀眾從高收入者向低收入者進(jìn)行了再分配。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在觀眾行為中存在強(qiáng)烈且一致的價(jià)值優(yōu)先效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明，一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)的優(yōu)點(diǎn)可以讓人們對(duì)不平等的接受程度顯著提高，從而為社會(huì)對(duì)不平等的接受程度提供了新的線索。

International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups

基于內(nèi)生加成的國(guó)際貿(mào)易與創(chuàng)新動(dòng)態(tài)

Laurent Cavenaile, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Tom Schmitz

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 971–1004, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac085

We argue that the recent increases in market concentration and markups are partly due to an ‘innovation feedback effect’ of globalisation. Lower trade costs increase innovation incentives for global firms. As the winners of the ensuing innovation race increase their technological advantage, concentration and markups rise. We develop an endogenous growth model capturing this effect and calibrate it to US manufacturing data. We find that the increase in trade between 1989 and 2007 raised the aggregate markup by 3.5 percentage points. This is entirely due to innovation: without the innovation response, markups would have fallen by 4 percentage points.

我們認(rèn)為，最近市場(chǎng)集中度和加成率的提高部分是由于全球化的“創(chuàng)新反饋效應(yīng)”。較低的貿(mào)易成本增加了跨國(guó)公司的創(chuàng)新動(dòng)力。隨著隨后創(chuàng)新競(jìng)賽的贏家技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)的增強(qiáng)，企業(yè)集中度和利潤(rùn)率也隨之上升。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)捕捉這種效應(yīng)的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)模型，并將其與美國(guó)制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)校準(zhǔn)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，1989年至2007年間的貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)使總加價(jià)率提高了3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這完全歸功于創(chuàng)新:如果沒有創(chuàng)新回應(yīng)，利潤(rùn)率將下降4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Identification and Parametric Estimation of Empirical Dynamic Marriage Matching Models

經(jīng)驗(yàn)動(dòng)態(tài)婚姻匹配模型的辨識(shí)與參數(shù)估計(jì)

Liang Chen, Eugene Choo

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1005–1035, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac052

Marriage matching markets typically involve heterogenous agents participating in a dynamic, non-stationary environment. These features pose a considerable modelling challenge. In this paper, we develop a new parametric model of dynamic marriage that allows for market non-stationarity using a system of transitionary equilibria. We propose a method to identify and parametrically estimate the model by representing the model equilibrium with a fixed-point mapping. We apply our model to investigate how China’s one-child policy has affected the marriage distribution through its effect on the population and sex ratios.

婚姻匹配市場(chǎng)通常涉及參與動(dòng)態(tài)、非平穩(wěn)環(huán)境的異質(zhì)主體。這些特征對(duì)建模提出了相當(dāng)大的挑戰(zhàn)。在本文中，我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)新的動(dòng)態(tài)婚姻參數(shù)模型，該模型使用一個(gè)過渡平衡系統(tǒng)考慮市場(chǎng)非平穩(wěn)。我們提出了一種方法來識(shí)別和參數(shù)估計(jì)模型，通過表示模型平衡與一個(gè)定點(diǎn)映射。我們運(yùn)用我們的模型來研究中國(guó)的獨(dú)生子女政策如何通過其對(duì)人口和性別比例的影響來影響婚姻分布。

Coordinated Work Schedules and the Gender Wage Gap

協(xié)調(diào)工作時(shí)間表和性別工資差距

German Cubas, Chinhui Juhn, Pedro Silos

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1036–1066, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac086

This paper studies how coordinated work schedules across jobs contribute to the gender wage gap. Using US time diary data, we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated schedules. Higher coordination is associated with higher wages and a larger gender wage gap. Empirically, women with children allocate more time to household care and are penalised for missing work during peak hours. An equilibrium occupational choice model generates a gender wage gap of 8.9%; most of the gender wage gap is within occupations. If coordination is set to the value of healthcare support across all occupations, the within-occupation gender gap halves.

本文研究了不同工作崗位間協(xié)調(diào)的工作安排對(duì)性別工資差距的影響。利用美國(guó)時(shí)間日記數(shù)據(jù)，我們構(gòu)建了職業(yè)層面的協(xié)調(diào)調(diào)度措施。更高的協(xié)調(diào)與更高的工資和更大的性別工資差距有關(guān)。根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，有孩子的女性會(huì)把更多的時(shí)間花在照顧家庭上，如果在高峰時(shí)間錯(cuò)過工作，就會(huì)受到懲罰。均衡職業(yè)選擇模型產(chǎn)生8.9%的性別工資差距;大多數(shù)性別工資差距發(fā)生在職業(yè)內(nèi)部。如果將協(xié)調(diào)設(shè)置為所有職業(yè)的醫(yī)療保健支持價(jià)值，則職業(yè)內(nèi)的性別差距將減半。

The Emperor’s Geography—City Locations, Nature and Institutional Optimisation

皇帝的地理-城市位置，自然和制度優(yōu)化

Christian Düben, Melanie Krause

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1067–1105, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac063

The emergence of cities in specific locations depends on both geographical features (such as elevation and proximity to rivers) and institutional factors (such as centrality within an administrative region). In this paper, we analyse the importance of these factors at different levels of the urban hierarchy. To do so, we exploit a unique data set on the locations of cities of different status in imperial China from 221 BCE to 1911 CE, a geographically diverse empire with a long history of centralised rule. Developing a stylised theoretical model, we combine econometrics with machine learning techniques. Our results suggest that the higher a city is in the urban hierarchy, the less important are local geographical features compared to institutional factors. At the lower end of the scale, market towns without government responsibilities are most strongly shaped by geographical characteristics. We also find evidence that many cities of political importance in imperial times still enjoy a special status nowadays, underlining the modern relevance of these historical factors.

城市在特定位置的出現(xiàn)既取決于地理特征(如海拔和河流的鄰近程度)，也取決于制度因素(如行政區(qū)域內(nèi)的中心地位)。本文從城市等級(jí)的不同層面分析了這些因素的重要性。為此，我們利用了一組獨(dú)特的數(shù)據(jù)，記錄了公元前221年至公元1911年中國(guó)帝國(guó)時(shí)期不同地位的城市的位置。中國(guó)是一個(gè)地理多元化的帝國(guó)，有著悠久的中央集權(quán)統(tǒng)治歷史。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)程式化的理論模型，將計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)結(jié)合起來。研究結(jié)果表明，城市等級(jí)越高，地方地理特征相對(duì)于制度因素的重要性越低。在規(guī)模的低端，沒有政府責(zé)任的集鎮(zhèn)受地理特征的影響最大。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，許多在帝國(guó)時(shí)代具有重要政治意義的城市在今天仍然享有特殊地位，突顯了這些歷史因素的現(xiàn)代相關(guān)性。

Auctions with Privately Known Capacities: Understanding Competition Among Renewables

以私人已知的能力進(jìn)行拍賣:了解可再生能源之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)?

Natalia Fabra, Gerard Llobet

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1106–1146, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac080

We study a multi-unit auction model in which bidders are privately informed about the maximum number of units they are willing to trade (which we refer to as ‘capacity’). No matter how big or small, private information on capacities changes the nature of the equilibrium as compared to when private information is on costs (or valuations). Also, the uniform-price and discriminatory auctions are not revenue equivalent, in contrast to when costs are independently drawn. In particular, with independently drawn capacities (and possibly costs), the discriminatory format reduces payments to firms relative to the uniform-price format. Our analysis is motivated by the performance of future electricity markets in which renewable energies will be predominant, but the set-up also applies to a variety of contexts (from central bank liquidity auctions to emissions trading).

我們研究了一個(gè)多單元拍賣模型，在該模型中，競(jìng)標(biāo)者私下獲知他們?cè)敢饨灰椎淖畲髥卧獢?shù)量(我們稱之為“容量”)。無論大小，與關(guān)于成本(或估值)的私人信息相比，關(guān)于能力的私人信息會(huì)改變均衡的性質(zhì)。此外，與獨(dú)立提取成本相比，統(tǒng)一價(jià)格和歧視性拍賣并不等價(jià)于收入。特別是，由于具有獨(dú)立提取的能力(可能還有成本)，歧視性格式相對(duì)于統(tǒng)一價(jià)格格式減少了對(duì)企業(yè)的付款。我們的分析是由可再生能源將占主導(dǎo)地位的未來電力市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)驅(qū)動(dòng)的，但這種設(shè)置也適用于各種情況(從央行流動(dòng)性拍賣到排放交易)。

Is School-Based Financial Education Effective? Immediate and Long-Lasting Impacts on High School Students?

校本理財(cái)教育有效嗎?對(duì)高中生的直接和長(zhǎng)期影響

Veronica Frisancho

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1147–1180, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac084

Relying on a large-scale experiment in Peru, this study evaluates the effects of an in-class intervention on financial literacy and financial behaviour. As soon as the programme is over, treated students record significant financial literacy gains that do not hinder their academic performance. The programme also leads to immediate changes in downstream financial behaviour as measured by financial autonomy and financial savviness. Credit bureau records gathered three years later show that early improvements in financial literacy translate into limited, but positive long-lasting changes in financial behaviour. The treatment did not affect students’ credit or repayment behaviour on the extensive margin, but, among those few with outstanding loans, it reduced arrears by 20%.

基于秘魯?shù)拇笠?guī)模實(shí)驗(yàn)，本研究評(píng)估了課堂干預(yù)對(duì)金融知識(shí)和金融行為的影響。一旦項(xiàng)目結(jié)束，接受治療的學(xué)生就會(huì)在不妨礙學(xué)業(yè)表現(xiàn)的情況下，在金融知識(shí)方面取得顯著進(jìn)步。該方案還導(dǎo)致以金融自主性和金融儲(chǔ)蓄衡量的下游金融行為立即發(fā)生變化。信用局三年后收集的記錄顯示，金融素養(yǎng)的早期提高轉(zhuǎn)化為金融行為的有限但積極的長(zhǎng)期變化。這種待遇沒有在很大程度上影響學(xué)生的信用或還款行為，但在少數(shù)有未償貸款的學(xué)生中，它將欠款減少了20%。

Pledge-and-Review Bargaining: from Kyoto to Paris?

承諾-審查談判:從京都到巴黎

B?rd Harstad

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1181–1216, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac076

A tractable dynamic model of international climate policies is analysed. The choice of bargaining game influences participation levels, emission quotas and technology investment levels. I derive several predictions that are arguably consistent with the differences between the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement—including the transitioning from the former to the latter.

本文分析了一個(gè)易于處理的國(guó)際氣候政策動(dòng)態(tài)模型。談判博弈的選擇影響參與水平、排放配額和技術(shù)投入水平。我得出的幾個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)可以說與1997年《京都議定書》和2015年《巴黎協(xié)定》之間的差異一致——包括從前者向后者的過渡。

Multi-Dimensional Skills and Gender Differences in Stem Majors?

Stem專業(yè)的多維技能與性別差異

Fernando Saltiel

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1217–1247, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac079

This paper studies the relationship between pre-college skills and gender differences in STEM majors. I use longitudinal data to estimate a generalised Roy model of initial major choices and subsequent graduation outcomes. I recover students’ latent math ability, non-cognitive skills and math self-efficacy. High–math-ability women have lower math self-efficacy than men. Mathematical ability and self-efficacy shape the likelihood of STEM enrolment. A lack of math self-efficacy drives women’s drop out from STEM majors. I find large returns to STEM enrolment for high–math-ability women. Well-focused math self-efficacy interventions could improve women’s STEM graduation rates and labour market outcomes.

本文研究了STEM專業(yè)學(xué)生的大學(xué)前技能與性別差異的關(guān)系。我使用縱向數(shù)據(jù)來估計(jì)一個(gè)關(guān)于最初的專業(yè)選擇和隨后畢業(yè)結(jié)果的廣義羅伊模型?；謴?fù)學(xué)生潛在的數(shù)學(xué)能力、非認(rèn)知能力和數(shù)學(xué)自我效能感。高數(shù)學(xué)能力的女性數(shù)學(xué)自我效能感低于男性。數(shù)學(xué)能力和自我效能感決定了參加STEM課程的可能性。缺乏數(shù)學(xué)自我效能感促使女性從STEM專業(yè)退學(xué)。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，學(xué)習(xí)STEM的高數(shù)學(xué)能力女性獲得了巨大的回報(bào)。專注于數(shù)學(xué)自我效能的干預(yù)措施可以提高女性的STEM畢業(yè)率和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的成果。

Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law?

削減福利與犯罪:來自新濟(jì)貧法的證據(jù)

Eric Melander, Martina Miotto

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 651, April 2023, Pages 1248–1264, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac083

The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.

1834年的新《濟(jì)貧法》改革導(dǎo)致英格蘭和威爾士各縣的福利支出大幅減少。利用雙重差分工具變量策略中的改革，我們證明了福利提供的慷慨程度與犯罪活動(dòng)之間存在穩(wěn)健的負(fù)向關(guān)系。這一結(jié)果是由非暴力的財(cái)產(chǎn)犯罪驅(qū)動(dòng)的，在季節(jié)性農(nóng)業(yè)失業(yè)的幾個(gè)月里表現(xiàn)得更強(qiáng)，突出了福利削減和經(jīng)濟(jì)弱勢(shì)群體不穩(wěn)定的工作機(jī)會(huì)的特別犯罪結(jié)合。