Journal of Political Economy 2023年第6期

2023, Volume 131, Issue 6

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——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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Partial Default

部分違約

Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

We document that countries partially default often and with varying intensity, resulting in lengthy episodes and hump-shaped patterns for partial default and debt. Default episodes lead to haircuts for lenders but not to reductions in debt, because the defaulted debt accumulates and borrowing continues. We present a theory of partial default rationalizing these patterns and the heterogeneity of partial default, and partial default’s comovements with spreads, debt, and output that are absent in standard sovereign default theory. We include policy counterfactuals in the form of pari passu and no-dilution clauses and debt-relief policies, and their welfare implications.

我們記錄了部分違約的國(guó)家經(jīng)常和不同的強(qiáng)度，導(dǎo)致部分違約和債務(wù)的長(zhǎng)時(shí)間和駝峰形模式。違約事件會(huì)導(dǎo)致貸款人的損失，但不會(huì)減少債務(wù)，因?yàn)檫`約債務(wù)會(huì)不斷累積，而借貸仍在繼續(xù)。我們提出了一個(gè)部分違約理論來(lái)合理化這些模式和部分違約的異質(zhì)性，以及部分違約與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)主權(quán)違約理論中不存在的利差、債務(wù)和產(chǎn)出的變動(dòng)。我們以同等權(quán)益和不稀釋條款、債務(wù)減免政策及其福利影響的形式納入了政策反事實(shí)。

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The Equilibrium Existence Duality

均衡存在對(duì)偶性

Elizabeth Baldwin & Ravi Jagadeesan & Paul Klemperer & Alexander Teytelboym

We show that with indivisible goods, the existence of competitive equilibrium fundamentally depends on agents’ substitution effects, not their income effects. Our equilibrium existence duality allows us to transport results on the existence of competitive equilibrium from settings with transferable utility to settings with income effects. One consequence is that net substitutability—which is a strictly weaker condition than gross substitutability—is sufficient for the existence of competitive equilibrium. Further applications give new existence results beyond the case of (net) substitutes. Our results have implications for auction design.

研究表明，在商品不可分割的情況下，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)均衡的存在從根本上取決于代理人的替代效應(yīng)，而不是代理人的收入效應(yīng)。我們的均衡存在性二元性允許我們將競(jìng)爭(zhēng)均衡存在的結(jié)果從具有可轉(zhuǎn)移效用的情境轉(zhuǎn)移到具有收入效應(yīng)的情境。結(jié)果之一是，凈可替代性——一個(gè)比總可替代性更弱的條件——足以滿足競(jìng)爭(zhēng)均衡的存在。進(jìn)一步的應(yīng)用給出了(凈)替代情況之外的新的存在結(jié)果。我們的研究結(jié)果對(duì)拍賣設(shè)計(jì)具有啟示意義。

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The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children

幼兒教育對(duì)提高弱勢(shì)非裔美國(guó)人及其子女的技能和社會(huì)流動(dòng)性的持久影響

Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman & Victor Ronda

This paper demonstrates the long-term intra- and intergenerational benefits of the HighScope Perry Preschool Project, which targeted disadvantaged African American children. We use newly collected data on the original participants through late middle age and on their children into their midtwenties. We document long-lasting improvements in the original participants’ skills, marriage stability, earnings, criminal behavior, and health. Beneficial program impacts through the child-rearing years translate into better family environments for their children, leading to intergenerational gains. Children of the original participants have higher levels of education and employment, lower levels of criminal activity, and better health than children of the controls.

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The Mainstreaming of Marx: Measuring the Effect of the Russian Revolution on Karl Marx’s Influence

馬克思的主流化:俄國(guó)革命對(duì)馬克思影響的衡量

?Phillip W. Magness & Michael Makovi

Karl Marx’s high academic stature outside of economics diverges sharply from his peripheral influence within the discipline, particularly after nineteenth-century developments rendered the labor theory of value obsolete. We hypothesize that the 1917 Russian Revolution is responsible for elevating Marx into the academic mainstream. Using the synthetic control method, we construct a counterfactual for Marx’s citation patterns in Google Ngram data. This allows us to predict how often Marx would have been cited if the Russian Revolution had not happened. We find a significant treatment effect, meaning that Marx’s academic stature today owes a substantial debt to political happenstance.

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Pareto-Improving Segmentation of Multiproduct Markets

帕累托改進(jìn)多產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)分割

?Nima Haghpanah & Ron Siegel

We investigate whether a market served by a multiproduct monopolistic seller can be segmented in a way that benefits all consumers and the seller. The seller can offer a different product menu in each market segment, combining second- and third-degree price discrimination. We show that markets for which profit maximization leads to inefficiency can, generically, be segmented into two market segments in a way that increases the surplus of all consumers weakly and of some consumers and the seller strictly. Our constructive proof is based on deriving implications of binding incentive compatibility constraints when profit maximization implies inefficiency.

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Voluntary Interaction and the Principle of Mutual Benefit

自愿互動(dòng)與互惠原則

?Andrea Isoni & Robert Sugden & Jiwei Zheng

Most social preference theories are based on observations of nonvoluntary interactions. Nonselfish behavior may take fundamentally different forms in voluntary interactions, such as market transactions. We investigate the “Principle of Mutual Benefit”—an injunctive norm requiring individuals who enter interactions voluntarily to conform to common expectations about behavior within them. This norm induces patterns of behavior inconsistent with existing social preference theories and allows extrinsic incentives to crowd in trustworthiness. We embed this norm in a model consistent with evidence about promise keeping, gift exchange, and “avoiding the ask.” We present new experimental evidence that people adhere to it.