Trafficking dreams

交通夢想

Why China’s Didi can succeed where Uber has struggled

為什么中國的滴滴能在優(yōu)步苦苦掙扎的領(lǐng)域取得成功

To glimpse the future of the ride-hailing business, look east

要窺探網(wǎng)約車業(yè)務(wù)的未來，向東方看齊

詞匯

?ride-hailing/打車服務(wù)

Feb 20th 2021 | beijing

“WE INVEST A?lot of money here in China,” proclaimed Travis Kalanick, founder and then boss of Uber, at a confab in Tianjin in June 2016. But, he added with foreboding, “we have a competitor who is investing even more.” Two months later the American ride-hailing giant threw in the towel, selling its Chinese operations to its Beijing-based rival, Didi. Uber lost some $2bn over two years in China. Its retreat paved the way for Didi to grow into China’s undisputed ride-hailing champion, which today processes over four-fifths of all domestic orders. The Chinese titan is widely expected to go public in the next few months, eight years after its launch. It could fetch a valuation of $60bn.

2016年6月，Uber的創(chuàng)始人兼老板特拉維斯·卡蘭尼克(Travis Kalanick)在天津的一次會(huì)議上宣稱:“我們在中國投資了很多錢?！钡?，他充滿預(yù)兆地補(bǔ)充說，“我們有一個(gè)競爭對手，它的投資甚至更多?！眱蓚€(gè)月后，這家美國網(wǎng)約車巨頭認(rèn)輸了，將其中國業(yè)務(wù)賣給了總部位于北京的競爭對手滴滴。兩年來，優(yōu)步在中國損失了約20億美元。優(yōu)步的退出為滴滴成長為中國無可爭議的叫車服務(wù)冠軍鋪平了道路。如今，中國超過五分之四的國內(nèi)訂單都是由滴滴處理的。外界普遍預(yù)計(jì)，在成立8年后的未來幾個(gè)月，這家中國巨頭公司將上市。它的估值可能達(dá)到600億美元。

詞匯

Confab/交談；會(huì)議

?Foreboding/預(yù)感；先兆

throw in the towel/認(rèn)輸[give up in the face of defeat of lacking hope; admit defeat

]

Undisputed/無可爭辯的；無異議的

?

That Uber was willing to burn through so much cash, at least for a time, is a testament to the size of the prize. China boasts the world’s biggest ride-hailing market. According to its transport ministry, 21m trips were booked on ride-hailing platforms each day, on average, last October. That is double the figure in pre-pandemic America, when travel was safer. Until it sold its Chinese business, Uber received more orders in China than in any other country, including its home market. The gross transaction value of China’s ride-hailers reached 221bn yuan ($32bn) last year, up by more than half since 2017, reckons Frost and Sullivan, a consultancy.

優(yōu)步愿意燒這么多錢，至少在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)如此，這證明了回報(bào)的大小。中國號稱擁有世界上最大的網(wǎng)約車市場。根據(jù)中國交通部的數(shù)據(jù)，去年10月，網(wǎng)約車平臺(tái)上平均每天預(yù)訂的出行數(shù)量為2100萬次。這是疫情前美國的兩倍，當(dāng)時(shí)旅行更安全。在出售中國業(yè)務(wù)之前，優(yōu)步在中國收到的訂單比其他任何國家都多，包括其本土市場。咨詢公司Frost and Sullivan估計(jì)，去年中國打車服務(wù)的總交易額達(dá)到了2210億元人民幣(合320億美元)，比2017年增長了一半以上。

?

America may have invented ride-hailing. But it is in China where the conditions are most fertile for it to flourish. The reasons go deeper than the size of the market. Didi has the most to gain. But its dominance will increasingly be contested.

美國可能發(fā)明了叫車服務(wù)。但中國的條件是最肥沃以便其壯大的。原因不僅僅是市場的規(guī)模。滴滴的收益最大。但它的主導(dǎo)地位將受到越來越多的挑戰(zhàn)。

詞匯

Fertile/富饒的，肥沃的

【地圖故意少一部分，刪了】

?

Ride-hailing firms depend disproportionately on customers in big cities, where population density is highest. Around a quarter of Uber’s gross bookings by value in 2019 came from just five metropolises: Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and London. China has 15?metropolitan areas with a population of over 10m (see map), more than any other country.

網(wǎng)約車公司不成比例地依賴人口密度最高的大城市的客戶。2019年，約四分之一的優(yōu)步總預(yù)訂量來自五個(gè)大城市:芝加哥、洛杉磯、紐約、舊金山和倫敦。中國有15個(gè)人口超過1000萬的大城市【原文是14，我查了下那邊的人口換成了15】，(見地圖)，比其他任何國家都多。

詞匯

disproportionately /不成比例地

Metropolises/大城市

Most of these cities, keen to reduce rage-inducing congestion, discourage private car ownership by restricting the supply of licence plates. In Beijing’s most recent bi-monthly lottery 3.6m applicants competed for 6,370 number plates. Shanghai, China’s most populous city, puts a small number of plates up for auction each month. The average winning bid at the auction in January was 91,863 yuan, more than double what it was a decade ago and costlier than many mid-range cars (see chart). The southern boomtowns of Guangzhou and Shenzhen have hybrid models whereby some plates are allocated via lottery and the rest sold to bidders. All that leaves millions of disappointed wannabe motorists for ride-hailing firms to cater to.

這些城市中，大多數(shù)急于減少引發(fā)憤怒的交通擁堵，通過限制牌照的供應(yīng)來抑制私家車的擁有量。在北京最近的雙月?lián)u號活動(dòng)中，360萬申請者爭奪6370個(gè)車牌。上海是中國人口最多的城市，每個(gè)月都會(huì)拍賣少量車牌。今年1月拍賣會(huì)上的平均中標(biāo)價(jià)為91863元，比十年前翻了一倍還多，比許多中檔車都貴(見圖表)。南方的新興城市廣州和深圳采用混合模式，一些車牌通過抽簽分配，其余的賣給競標(biāo)者。所有這一切都讓數(shù)以百萬計(jì)失望的準(zhǔn)司機(jī)等待網(wǎng)約車公司為其提供可能。

詞匯

?Congestion/擁擠；擁塞

Lottery/彩票

?Boomtown/新興都市

wannabe / 想達(dá)到目標(biāo)的人；趕超崇拜者的人

?

Moreover, high urban density and the absence of American-style suburban sprawl turn parking space into a prized (and pricey) commodity. The number of public parking spaces per car in Beijing, China’s second-most populous city, is a fifth of that in its American opposite number, Los Angeles. China’s extensive high-speed rail network, the world’s longest, blunts the benefits of car ownership for long-distance travel. And cheaper labour means rides can be offered at low prices, making them accessible to a wider group of customers. More than 340m Chinese booked a ride-hailing service at least once in the first half of 2020, notes the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

此外，高城市密度和美國式郊區(qū)擴(kuò)張的缺乏，使停車位成為一種珍貴(且昂貴)的商品。在中國人口第二多的城市北京，每輛車的公共停車位數(shù)量是美國洛杉磯的五分之一。中國龐大的高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)是世界上最長的，這削弱了擁有汽車對長途旅行的好處。更廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力意味著可以以更低的價(jià)格提供乘車服務(wù)，使更多的顧客能夠享受乘車服務(wù)。工業(yè)和信息化部(Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)指出，在2020年上半年，至少有3.4億中國人預(yù)訂了一次網(wǎng)約車服務(wù)。

詞匯

Blunt/ 鈍的，不鋒利

?

In 2019 Didi disclosed that it was losing an average of just 2% of the total fare on each ride. The company now says its “core ride-hailing business in China is already profitable”. It is coy about the details; Uber also insists it makes money from ride-hailing but continues to report vast operating losses, of $4.9bn last year. Yet most analysts in China take Didi at its word. The question for Didi, they say, is not whether it can break even but rather how well it can sustain profits, maintain its near-monopoly in China and expand abroad.

2019年，滴滴透露，每次出行平均只損失總車費(fèi)的2%。該公司現(xiàn)在表示，其“在中國的核心叫車業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利”。它對細(xì)節(jié)含糊其辭;（但在另外一邊）優(yōu)步還堅(jiān)稱，它從叫車服務(wù)中賺錢，但持續(xù)報(bào)告巨額運(yùn)營虧損，去年虧損49億美元。然而，中國的大多數(shù)分析師都相信滴滴的話。他們表示，滴滴的問題不在于它能否實(shí)現(xiàn)盈虧平衡，而在于它能在多大程度上維持利潤、維持在中國的近乎壟斷地位并向海外擴(kuò)張。

詞匯

Coy/ 靦腆的；忸怩作態(tài)的

?

In recent years the firm has expanded into new business lines, from bike-sharing and food delivery to financial services. The aim is to build up a convenient “ecosystem” to make it costlier for customers to switch to a rival platform. Those rival platforms are not standing still, however. Jack Wei, boss of Shouqi Yueche, Didi’s closest domestic competitor, is sanguine about the challengers’ prospects. He sees room for “multiple firms”, perhaps three or four, to thrive in China in the long term.

近年來，該公司已擴(kuò)展到新的業(yè)務(wù)線，從自行車共享和食品配送到金融服務(wù)。其目的是建立一個(gè)方便的“生態(tài)系統(tǒng)”，使消費(fèi)者轉(zhuǎn)向競爭平臺(tái)的成本更高。然而，這些競爭平臺(tái)并沒有停滯不前。滴滴最大的國內(nèi)競爭對手、首汽悅車的老板魏建偉(Jack Wei)對挑戰(zhàn)者的前景持樂觀態(tài)度。他認(rèn)為“多家公司”，也許是三到四家，在中國有長期發(fā)展的空間。

?

One way to carve out a bigger slice of the market is through differentiation, Mr Wei suggests. Shouqi prides itself on premium customer service (as Lyft, Uber’s domestic rival, tries to). Its ambition is to become the “l(fā)eader” in upscale rides while “keeping up” with Didi in the mass market. China is large enough that serving this niche is big business. Shouqi expects to turn a net profit this year on revenues of 8bn yuan.

魏建偉建議，開拓更大市場份額的方法之一是通過差異化。首汽以優(yōu)質(zhì)的客戶服務(wù)為傲(優(yōu)步的國內(nèi)競爭對手Lyft也在努力做到這一點(diǎn))。首汽悅車的雄心是成為高端出行領(lǐng)域的“領(lǐng)先者”，同時(shí)在大眾市場上“跟上”滴滴。中國足夠大，服務(wù)于這個(gè)利基市場（有利可圖的市場）是一筆大生意。首汽預(yù)計(jì)今年?duì)I收將達(dá)到80億元人民幣，實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤。

詞匯

niche /利基（niche)市場（即被市場中有絕對優(yōu)勢企業(yè)忽略的某些細(xì)分市場）

??

Another path is to forge strategic alliances. Shouqi has one with Meituan, a rising Chinese e-commerce star that offers, among other things, food-delivery and bike-sharing services. The agreement allows Meituan’s 477m annual active users to book Shouqi rides directly in its super-app. In return Shouqi pays Meituan a small commission on each booking. Crucially, Meituan excludes Didi, which it views as a threat, from its platform.

另一條途徑是建立戰(zhàn)略聯(lián)盟。首汽與中國正在崛起的電商明星美團(tuán)(Meituan)合作，提供送餐和共享單車等服務(wù)。該協(xié)議允許美團(tuán)4.77億年活躍用戶在其超級應(yīng)用上直接預(yù)訂首汽。作為回報(bào)，首汽向美團(tuán)支付每筆預(yù)訂的少量傭金。至關(guān)重要的是，美團(tuán)將其視為威脅的滴滴排除在其平臺(tái)之外。

?

Despite its advantages, the Chinese market presents some obstacles. As in the West, the authorities are concerned about big tech. In December the markets regulator summoned six online giants, including Didi, and lectured them on how not to abuse their dominant positions. At the local level, more than a hundred municipalities have drafted stricter rules on who can drive for ride-hailing firms over the past four years. The aim appears to be to appease embattled local taxi industries. The rules typically set a high bar, such as requiring existing residency status in the city where a driver wants to work. Yet most drivers are migrant workers who lack the proper papers. In 2016 Didi complained that only 3% of its 410,000 drivers in Shanghai would have passed the test.

盡管中國市場有優(yōu)勢，但也存在一些障礙。與西方一樣，中國當(dāng)局也對大型科技公司感到擔(dān)憂。去年12月，市場監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)召集了包括滴滴在內(nèi)的六家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭，告誡他們不要濫用自己的主導(dǎo)地位。在地方層面，過去四年來，100多個(gè)城市已經(jīng)就誰可以為網(wǎng)約車公司開車起草了更嚴(yán)格的規(guī)定。此舉的目的似乎是為了安撫陷入困境的當(dāng)?shù)爻鲎廛囆袠I(yè)。這些規(guī)定通常設(shè)置了很高的門檻，比如要求司機(jī)想要工作的城市擁有現(xiàn)有的居民身份。然而，大多數(shù)司機(jī)都是沒有合法證件的外來務(wù)工人員。2016年，滴滴抱怨稱，在上海的41萬名司機(jī)中，只有3%能通過測試。

詞匯

Embattled/嚴(yán)陣以待的；被敵人圍困的

?

The arrival of self-driving cars, which Didi has been developing since 2016, may one day solve this problem, though probably not imminently (last year Uber called it quits and spun off its autonomous-vehicle arm). In the meantime, Didi is hedging its bets by diversifying. In 2017 it set up an international division. A chunk of the $4.5bn it raised a year later was earmarked for foreign expansion. Today it operates in 13 overseas markets, mainly in Latin America. Three years ago it acquired a controlling stake in 99 Taxi, which competes with Uber in Brazil, in a deal that valued the Brazilian startup at around $1bn.

自2016年以來滴滴一直在開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車，它的到來也許有一天會(huì)解決這個(gè)問題，盡管可能不是迫在眉睫(去年優(yōu)步宣布退出，并剝離了自動(dòng)駕駛汽車部門)。與此同時(shí)，滴滴正在通過多元化來對沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2017年，它成立了一個(gè)國際部門。一年后籌集的45億美元資金中，有很大一部分用于海外擴(kuò)張。如今，它的業(yè)務(wù)遍及13個(gè)海外市場，主要集中在拉丁美洲。三年前，優(yōu)步收購了99 Taxi的控股權(quán)，這是其在巴西與優(yōu)步競爭時(shí)，以約為10億美元的對這家巴西初創(chuàng)企業(yè)估值拿下

詞匯

spin/紡線；結(jié)網(wǎng)[過去分詞spun]

?【無關(guān)內(nèi)容已刪去】. ■