Scorched earth

焦土策略

No one is likely to win the oil-price war

沒(méi)有人可能贏得這場(chǎng)油價(jià)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)

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Saudi Arabia, Russia and America will all suffer

沙特阿拉伯、俄羅斯和美國(guó)都將遭殃

Mar 14th 2020 |

SAUDI ARABIA and Russia are used to fighting their enemies via proxies. But the oil-price war that has broken out between them is head-on and has swiftly escalated. It started when Russia refused to slash production during a meeting with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna on March 6th. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, hit back with discounts to buyers and a promise to pump more crude. Shortly thereafter it said it would provide customers with 12.3m barrels a day (b/d) in April, about 25% more than it supplied last month—and a level it has never before attained. Russia said it could raise output, too, adding up to 500,000 b/d to its 11.2m b/d. The price of Brent crude plunged by 24%, to $34 a barrel, on March 9th—its steepest one-day drop in nearly 30 years.

沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯習(xí)慣于通過(guò)第三方與敵人作戰(zhàn)。但他們之間爆發(fā)的油價(jià)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)正迎頭而上，并迅速升級(jí)。3月6日，在維也納舉行的石油輸出國(guó)組織會(huì)議上，俄羅斯拒絕減產(chǎn)。歐佩克事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者沙特阿拉伯以對(duì)買(mǎi)家的折扣和增加原油產(chǎn)量的承諾予以回?fù)?。此后不久，該公司表示，將?月份每日向客戶提供1230萬(wàn)桶原油，比上月增加約25%——這是該公司從未達(dá)到過(guò)的水平。俄羅斯表示，他也可能提高日產(chǎn)量，在目前每日1120萬(wàn)桶的基礎(chǔ)上再增加50萬(wàn)桶。3月9日，布倫特原油價(jià)格暴跌24%，至每桶34美元，這是近30年來(lái)最大的單日跌幅。

詞匯

Proxy/代理；代理人

Escalate/逐步增強(qiáng)；逐步升高

OPEC/石油輸出國(guó)組織，簡(jiǎn)稱“歐佩克”。

de facto/（法）事實(shí)上的

Amid turmoil in global markets unleashed by the plummeting oil price, and panic about its impact on the global economy, Saudi Arabia upped the ante again on March 11th, ordering Saudi Aramco, its state-owned oil giant, to raise national production capacity by a further 1m b/d. Is the kingdom merely strengthening its bargaining position to force Russia back to the table? Or is it waging a fierce price war to crowd out rivals that will instead ensure what analysts at Bernstein, an investment firm, call “mutually assured destruction”? The answer may determine how long the disruption will last.

在油價(jià)暴跌引發(fā)的全球市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩和對(duì)其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的恐慌中，沙特阿拉伯于3月11日再次加大賭注，命令其國(guó)有石油巨頭“沙特阿美石油公司”將其國(guó)家生產(chǎn)能力再提高100萬(wàn)桶/天。難道沙特只是在加強(qiáng)自己的談判地位，迫使俄羅斯回到談判桌前嗎?還是說(shuō)，他正在發(fā)動(dòng)一場(chǎng)激烈的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，以排擠那些將確保被伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)投資公司的分析師們稱為“相互確保毀滅”的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?答案可能決定這次擾亂將持續(xù)多久。

詞匯

Amid/在其中

Turmoil/混亂，騷動(dòng)

Ante/賭注

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The fallout caps a seismic decade for oilmen. Power has shifted between Saudi Arabia, Russia and America (see chart). In 2014 Saudi Arabia sought to check America’s ascendant shale industry by flooding the market with oil. The result was cataclysmic for all producers. Two years later OPEC restored its grip on output by forging an alliance with Russia and others.

對(duì)石油商來(lái)說(shuō)，這場(chǎng)地震似的余波為他們十年的輝煌劃上了句號(hào)。權(quán)力已經(jīng)在沙特阿拉伯、俄羅斯和美國(guó)之間轉(zhuǎn)移(見(jiàn)圖表)。2014年，沙特阿拉伯試圖通過(guò)向市場(chǎng)大量供應(yīng)石油，來(lái)遏制美國(guó)日益崛起的頁(yè)巖油行業(yè)。結(jié)果對(duì)所有生產(chǎn)者來(lái)說(shuō)都是災(zāi)難性的。兩年后，歐佩克通過(guò)與俄羅斯和其他國(guó)家結(jié)盟，恢復(fù)了對(duì)產(chǎn)量的控制。

詞匯

Seismic/地震的；因地震而引起的

Oilmen/石油商；石油工人

Cataclysmic/災(zāi)難性的；極不成功的；大變動(dòng)的

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In recent years, though, Russia has flouted the terms of its deals with OPEC. Its oil companies, led by Rosneft, have chafed at market share lost to American frackers. As troubling for Russia, America has become less shy about leaning on foreigners. In December it announced sanctions to delay Nord Stream 2, a Russian gas pipeline to Europe. In February America imposed sanctions to punish Rosneft for its dealings with Venezuela.

但近年來(lái)，俄羅斯一直無(wú)視與歐佩克的協(xié)議條款。以俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)為首的俄羅斯石油公司對(duì)市場(chǎng)份額輸給美國(guó)水力壓裂公司感到不滿。作為俄羅斯的麻煩，美國(guó)已經(jīng)不再那么羞于依賴外國(guó)人了。去年12月，他宣布對(duì)俄羅斯實(shí)施制裁，以推遲俄羅斯通往歐洲的天然氣管道北溪二號(hào)(Nord Stream 2)的建設(shè)。2月，美國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯石油公司實(shí)施制裁，以懲罰其與委內(nèi)瑞拉的交易。

詞匯

Russia’s partnership with OPEC has won it new influence in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia has borne most of the burden of production cuts. The Saudis are getting tired of the role of swing producer. That position has become all the more invidious since January, when the outbreak of covid-19 in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, put downward pressure on prices.

俄羅斯與歐佩克的合作為其在中東贏得了新的影響力，而沙特阿拉伯承擔(dān)了減產(chǎn)的大部分負(fù)擔(dān)。沙特人已經(jīng)厭倦了搖擺不定的生產(chǎn)者角色。自今年1月以來(lái)，這種立場(chǎng)變得更加令人反感。當(dāng)時(shí)，全球最大的石油進(jìn)口國(guó)中國(guó)爆發(fā)了covid-19，給油價(jià)帶來(lái)了下行壓力。

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The Saudi decision to open the spigots is nevertheless extremely rash. With the coronavirus raging, global appetite for oil may decline in 2020 for only the third time in more than 30 years. Increasing supply at a time of falling demand may send the price of Brent crude below $30 in the second quarter, estimates Citi, a bank.

盡管如此，沙特開(kāi)放石油供應(yīng)的決定還是極其草率。隨著冠狀病毒的肆虐，全球?qū)κ偷男枨罂赡茉?020年出現(xiàn)30多年來(lái)的第三次下降。花旗銀行估計(jì)，在需求下降的時(shí)候增加供應(yīng)可能會(huì)使布倫特原油（一種原油）價(jià)格在第二季度跌破30美元。

詞匯

Spigot/龍頭；栓

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The pain may be most acute for smaller, unstable countries dependent on oil revenue, such as Nigeria. Iraq’s government is already teetering—a collapsing oil price may topple it. The movement of forward contracts on Gulf currencies pegged to the dollar, such as Oman’s rial, suggest incipient concerns about the ability to sustain the pegs if dollar revenues from oil remain depressed for a long time.

對(duì)于依賴石油收入的不穩(wěn)定小國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，這種痛苦可能最為嚴(yán)重，比如尼日利亞。伊拉克政府已經(jīng)搖搖欲墜——油價(jià)暴跌可能會(huì)使其垮臺(tái)。與美元掛鉤的海灣國(guó)家貨幣(如阿曼的里亞爾)遠(yuǎn)期合約的變動(dòng)表明，如果來(lái)自石油的美元收入長(zhǎng)期處于低迷狀態(tài)，人們對(duì)維持這種掛鉤的能力產(chǎn)生了初步的擔(dān)憂。

詞匯

Topple/推翻；顛覆

Incipient/初期的；初始的

America, too, will be hit hard. Cheap oil used to be a boon to America’s economy. That is no longer the case. In a viral outbreak, savings on petrol are unlikely to translate into more spending on other things, especially ones that involve crowds. Even if it did, any boost to the economy from consumers would be outweighed by damage to shale states such as Texas and North Dakota. Breakeven prices—those oil producers need to turn a profit—in America’s shale basins range from $23 to $75 a barrel, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve. Production cuts and lay-offs are likely.

美國(guó)也將受到沉重打擊。廉價(jià)的石油曾經(jīng)是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的福音?，F(xiàn)在情況已經(jīng)不同了。在病毒爆發(fā)的情況下，節(jié)省汽油不太可能轉(zhuǎn)化為在其他方面的更多支出，尤其是涉及人群的方面。即便如此，消費(fèi)者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的任何提振，都將被德克薩斯州和北達(dá)科他州等頁(yè)巖州受到的損害所抵消。盈虧平衡價(jià)格——根據(jù)達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，這些石油生產(chǎn)商需要將美國(guó)頁(yè)巖盆地的利潤(rùn)從每桶23美元提高到75美元。這有可能帶來(lái)減產(chǎn)和裁員。

詞匯

Making matters worse, shale firms were suffering even before the latest sell-off, as investors questioned their capacity for sustained profits. Capital markets have all but closed to the industry. It will not collapse; many shale firms are hedged against falling prices this year. Those on their knees may well be taken over by bigger competitors. Analysts say larger rivals such as ExxonMobil have the balance-sheets to cope with cheap oil.

更糟糕的是，由于投資者質(zhì)疑頁(yè)巖氣公司持續(xù)盈利的能力，頁(yè)巖氣公司甚至在最近的拋售之前就已經(jīng)遭受了損失。資本市場(chǎng)幾乎已對(duì)該行業(yè)關(guān)閉。它不會(huì)倒塌;許多頁(yè)巖油公司都在為今年油價(jià)下跌做對(duì)沖。那些資質(zhì)一般的公司很可能被規(guī)模更大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手收購(gòu)。分析師表示，?？松梨诘纫?guī)模較大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表足以應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)下跌。

詞匯

shale industry/頁(yè)巖（氣）

Russia may fail in its attempt to kill off America’s shale industry. Moreover, weak oil prices will hurt its economy. But unlike Saudi Arabia, whose currency is pegged to the dollar, the rouble floats. When oil prices fall, the currency does, too, lowering production costs. On March 10th Russia’s finance ministry said that the country had enough foreign-currency reserves to withstand a decade of prices hovering between $25 and $30. It seems in no hurry to go back to negotiations with OPEC.

俄羅斯扼殺美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的努力可能會(huì)失敗。此外，疲軟的石油價(jià)格將損害其經(jīng)濟(jì)。但與沙特不同的是，該國(guó)的貨幣與美元掛鉤，而盧布是浮動(dòng)的。當(dāng)油價(jià)下跌時(shí)，貨幣也會(huì)降低生產(chǎn)成本。3月10日，俄羅斯財(cái)政部表示，該國(guó)有足夠的外匯儲(chǔ)備來(lái)承受油價(jià)在25到30美元之間徘徊的十年。他似乎并不急于回到與歐佩克的談判。

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With some of the world’s cheapest oil, Saudi Arabia may be able to pile more pressure on the Russians. Aramco has more than 50 years of reserves, and costs per barrel of less than $9, according to Rystad Energy, a data firm, compared with $15 for Russia. Still, Saudi Arabia may struggle to maintain production—even 12.3m b/d will require tapping its vast inventories.

Moreover, the kingdom’s budget requires an oil price of more than $80, estimates the IMF. Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckons that if it increases output and oil prices recover, its finances will weather temporary pain. But if the virus persists and demand keeps plunging, the damage may be more lasting. It is a price war that no one looks likely to win.?

此外，據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織估計(jì)，沙特的預(yù)算需要油價(jià)超過(guò)80美元。高盛銀行認(rèn)為，如果他增加產(chǎn)量，油價(jià)回升，他的財(cái)政狀況將經(jīng)受暫時(shí)的痛苦。但是，如果疫情持續(xù)下去，需求持續(xù)下降，損害可能會(huì)更持久。這是一場(chǎng)似乎沒(méi)有人會(huì)贏的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。