Under the weather--How a popular investment strategy unravelled

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人五月刊

Under the weather：身體不適；不舒服

unravel v. /?n?r?vl/ ?1.（把纏或織在一起的線）解開(kāi)，拆散，松開(kāi)

?I unravelled the string and wound it into a ball. 我把繩子解開(kāi)并繞成一個(gè)球。

2.[ V ] ( of a system, plan, relationship, etc. 系統(tǒng)、計(jì)劃、關(guān)系等 ) to start to fail or no longer stay together as a whole 解體；崩潰；瓦解

3.to explain sth that is difficult to understand or is mysterious; to become clearer or easier to understand 闡釋?zhuān)徽f(shuō)明；澄清；變得清楚易懂??The discovery will help scientists unravel the mystery of the Ice Age. 這一發(fā)現(xiàn)將有助于科學(xué)家揭開(kāi)冰川時(shí)代的奧秘。

“THE PANDEMIC was a strange beast that I didn’t have an edge wrestling with,” says Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, explaining his losses in the first quarter. For years Bridgewater’s famed?risk-parity?strategy produced high returns for low risk, and was widely adopted by others. But things soured when covid-19 hit. Mr Dalio reported losses of 7-21% across his funds in the first quarter, his biggest since late 2008.

have an edge：有優(yōu)勢(shì)，具有優(yōu)勢(shì)????????wrestle with：努力克服，全力對(duì)付

hedge fund：對(duì)沖基金 ???risk-parity：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平價(jià)（管理投資組合的一種策略）

parity n. /?p?r?ti/ ?

1.[ U ] ~ (with sb/sth)~ (between A and B) （尤指薪金或地位）平等，相同，對(duì)等

?Prison officers are demanding pay parity with the police force. 獄警正要求與警察同工同酬。

2.?[ UC ] ( finance 財(cái) ) the fact of the units of money of two different countries being equal （兩國(guó)貨幣的）平價(jià)??to achieve parity with the dollar 取得與美元的平價(jià)

Sour：我們常見(jiàn)的詞義是做形容詞-酸、酸腐的、變餿的、還可以形容人不高興，悶悶不樂(lè)。作動(dòng)詞除了變酸，變餿。還有文中的意思變壞，朝不好的方向發(fā)展( of relationships, attitudes, people, etc. 關(guān)系、態(tài)度、人等 ) to change so that they become less pleasant or friendly than before; to make sth do this （使）變壞，惡化 ?The atmosphere at the house soured. 屋子里的氣氛不對(duì)了

Bridgewater created the first risk-parity portfolio in 1996, when it launched its?All Weather fund. It was intended to be?insulated from market-wide shocks. A typical way to do this is to balance holdings of relatively volatile stocks with government bonds—in times of market stress bonds usually rise in value, offsetting losses from stocks. But that means less exposure to equities, which tend to have higher returns. Bridgewater’s innovation was to keep a high allocation of stocks, but to borrow to buy safe?long-dated bonds. If the long-dated interest rate is higher than the borrowing rate, as has generally been the case, this raises the total return on the portfolio, without adding extra risk.

All Weather?found：全天候基金 通過(guò)平衡投資組合中的各項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)使其在不同的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境均能有良好的表現(xiàn)

insulated adj. /??nsjule?t?d/ ?protected with a material that prevents heat, sound, electricity, etc. from passing through 有隔熱（或隔音、絕緣）保護(hù)的?? insulated wires 絕緣線

volatile adj. /?v?l?ta?l/ ?

1.( often disapproving ) ( of a person or their moods 人或其情緒 ) changing easily from one mood to another 易變的；無(wú)定性的；無(wú)常性的??a highly volatile personality 反復(fù)無(wú)常的個(gè)性

2.( of a situation 情況 ) likely to change suddenly; easily becoming dangerous 可能急劇波動(dòng)的；不穩(wěn)定的；易惡化的??a volatile exchange rate 劇烈波動(dòng)的匯率

3.( technical 術(shù)語(yǔ) ) ( of a substance 物質(zhì) ) that changes easily into a gas 易揮發(fā)的；易發(fā)散的

offset /??f?s?t/ ?V-T If one thing is offset by another, the effect of the first thing is reduced by the second, so that any advantage or disadvantage is cancelled out. 抵消

long-dated ：ADJ (of a gilt-edged security) having more than 15 years to run before redemption (金邊債券)長(zhǎng)期的

The strategy’s success led others to follow. Assets allocated to the strategy probably exceeded $1trn in March, according to David Zervos of Jefferies, an investment bank. Risk parity’s outperformance during the global financial crisis was its making. The average annual return in the S&P?risk-parity index in 2006-10 was 8%; by contrast, the S&P 500 equity index made nothing.

S&P：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù) ???MSCI ?abbr. 摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際公司（Morgan Stanley Capital International）

At first risk parity fared well?during the corona-crisis. Between January 1st and March 13th the?MSCI world share-price index fell by 20%. Safe assets were in high demand. In America the yield on the ten-year Treasury, which moves inversely to the price, dipped?to a record low of 0.3% on March 9th. But then bond and share prices began to fall?in tandem. Faced with an intense cash crunch, some investors sold their holdings of even liquid assets such as Treasuries. Risk-parity portfolios plunged in value.

Fare well：順利，過(guò)得好 ????cash crunch：現(xiàn)金危機(jī)

Dip：v. 浸，蘸；（使）下降，下沉，減少；（把手、工具）伸入（袋子、容器）；扒竊；動(dòng)用（資金）；瀏覽（書(shū)籍）；（給牲畜）洗藥??；制作（蠟燭）；給某人施洗禮；（道路、地面）向下傾斜；放下，下移；（把汽車(chē)前燈）調(diào)為近光 n. 浸，蘸；短暫的水浴或游泳；（暫時(shí)的）減少，下降；調(diào)味醬，蘸醬；凹陷處，低洼處；瀏覽，翻閱；藥浴液；舀取的量；（上坡前的）短暫下坡，（上升前的）短暫下落；傾角，視傾斜；扒手

tandem n. /?t?nd?m/ ?雙座自行車(chē)；雙人自行車(chē)

?IN ?TANDEM (WITH SB/STH)：a thing that works or happens in tandem with sth else works together with it or happens at the same time as it 并行；并駕齊驅(qū)；同時(shí)實(shí)行

With yields on Treasuries still low,?proponents of risk parity are on the lookout for other ways to?hedge?risk. Mr Dalio reckons that government borrowing undertaken to support the economy during the pandemic will stoke inflation, making bonds less attractive to hold. Mr Zervos argues that investment-grade corporate bonds, which offer a return that is around two percentage points higher than government bonds, could be a substitute. The search for a new way to outperform begins.

proponent n. /pr??p??n?nt/ ?~ (of sth) ( formal ) a person who supports an idea or course of action 倡導(dǎo)者；支持者；擁護(hù)者

hedge /hed?/n. 樹(shù)籬；防止損失的手段；模糊措辭；障礙；v. 用樹(shù)籬笆圍?。槐苊庾髡娲饛?fù)；避免損失；限制

stoke v. /st??k/ ?

1.~ sth (up) (with sth) to add fuel to a fire, etc. 給…添加（燃料）

?to stoke up a fire with more coal 往火里再添一些煤

2.~ sth (up) to make people feel sth more strongly 煽動(dòng)；激起

?to stoke up envy 激起妒忌

STOKE ?UP (ON/WITH STH)：( informal ) to eat or drink a lot of sth, especially so that you do not feel hungry later 吃飽；吃好；喝足