If a woman in Texas has an abortion she is breaking the law, even if her pregnancy is the result of a rape. The same woman may, however, buy an ar-15 rifle capable of firing 45 rounds a minute, and she may carry a pistol on her hip when picking her toddler up from pre-school. In these, and in a few other ways, America is an outlier compared with other rich democracies. You might assume that this simply reflects the preferences of voters. You would be wrong: it is the result of a political failure.

如果德克薩斯州的一名婦女墮胎，她就是違法的，即使她是由強(qiáng)奸導(dǎo)致的懷孕。然而，同樣一名婦女她能夠購(gòu)買一種每分鐘可以發(fā)射45發(fā)子彈的AR-15步槍，當(dāng)她從幼兒園接她的孩子時(shí)，她可能會(huì)在她的臀部攜帶一把手槍。在這些方面，以及其他一些方面，美國(guó)與其他發(fā)達(dá)的民主國(guó)家相比，它是一個(gè)異類。你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為這只是反映了選民的偏好。你可能錯(cuò)了：這是政治失敗的結(jié)果。

American exceptionalism once seemed to be the cause of all sorts of transatlantic differences, for good and ill. America’s greater religiosity explained the intensity of the culture wars over gay marriage and abortion. Greater individualism explained the dynamism of America’s entrepreneurial economy, the willingness to move in search of something better and also, unfortunately, the passion for guns.

【1】religiosity 篤信宗教

美國(guó)卓異主義一度似乎是大西洋兩岸各種分歧的根源，無論好壞。美國(guó)人更強(qiáng)烈的宗教信仰解釋了圍繞同性婚姻和墮胎的文化戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的激烈程度。更強(qiáng)烈的個(gè)人主義則解釋了美國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的活力，以及愿意去尋求更好的東西，還有不幸的是，對(duì)槍支的熱情。

This diagnosis is no longer accurate. Before covid-19 hit, internal migration was at its lowest since records began. The share of Americans who belong to a church, synagogue or mosque has fallen from 70% in 2000 to below 50% now. The birth rate is the same as in France.

【1】synagogue 猶太教堂

【2】mosque 清真寺

這種判斷已經(jīng)不準(zhǔn)確了。在新冠疫情襲擊之前，其國(guó)內(nèi)移民數(shù)量處于有記錄以來的最低水平。屬于教堂、猶太教堂或清真寺的美國(guó)人的比例已經(jīng)從2000年的70%下降到現(xiàn)在的50%以下。出生率和法國(guó)一樣。

As America has become less exceptional in these ways, so has its public opinion. On abortion, Americans’ views are strikingly close to those in other rich countries. A majority of Americans think it should be legal in the first trimester and restricted thereafter, with exemptions if the mother’s health is at risk, and for rape and incest—a qualifier that should be redundant, but is included because six Republican state legislatures have abortion bans with no such exemptions. Support for gay marriage, at 40% in 2000, is at 70% now. Americans are about as accepting of homosexuality as Italians are, and more tolerant than the Japanese or Poles.

【1】trimester [尤指妊娠的]三月期

隨著美國(guó)在這些方面變得不再那么特殊，其公眾輿論也變得不那么例外。在墮胎問題上，美國(guó)人的觀點(diǎn)與其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家驚人地接近。大多數(shù)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為，在妊娠頭三個(gè)月，墮胎應(yīng)該是合法的，之后應(yīng)該受到限制，如果母親的健康受到威脅，或者是因?yàn)椤皬?qiáng)奸”和“亂倫”，可以進(jìn)行豁免；這一限定詞應(yīng)該是多余的，但之所以被包括進(jìn)去，是因?yàn)榱鶄€(gè)共和黨州立法機(jī)構(gòu)都有墮胎禁令，卻沒有這樣的豁免。同性婚姻的支持率從2000年的40%上升到現(xiàn)在的70%。美國(guó)人對(duì)同性戀的接受程度和意大利人差不多，比日本人和波蘭人更寬容。

On climate change, American attitudes are remarkable in their ordinariness. Three-quarters of Americans are willing to make some changes to their lives to help reduce the effects of climate change. That is slightly higher than the share of Dutch who say the same, and about level with Belgium. On guns, America truly is an outlier: it is the only country with more civilian-owned firearms than people. But here too the overall picture is misleading: 60% of American homes have no guns in them, up from 50% in 1960. A clear majority favours banning guns that can fire lots of bullets quickly.

在氣候變化問題上，美國(guó)人的平常態(tài)度非常引人注目。四分之三的美國(guó)人愿意對(duì)他們的生活做出一些改變，以幫助減少氣候變化的影響。這一比例略高于有著同樣想法的荷蘭人，與比利時(shí)人持平。在槍支方面，美國(guó)確實(shí)是一個(gè)異類：它是唯一一個(gè)民用槍支數(shù)量超過人口數(shù)量的國(guó)家。但在這方面，總體情況也存在誤導(dǎo)：60%的美國(guó)家庭沒有槍支，而1960年這一比例為50%。顯然大多數(shù)人贊成禁止能夠快速發(fā)射大量子彈的槍支。

Yet despite this, America has not banned assault weapons, nor legalised abortion or gay marriage through the normal democratic process. Ireland, where anti-abortion sentiment has historically been stronger, has come to a democratic settlement on abortion—as has Japan, where a woman’s right to choose is less popular than in America. Switzerland, nobody’s idea of a forward-thinking place (it gave women the right to vote only in 1971), has legalised gay marriage through a referendum. America and Italy are the only members of the g7 that have not enshrined net-zero emissions targets in law.

盡管如此，美國(guó)并沒有禁止攻擊性武器，也沒有通過正常的民主程序使墮胎或同性婚姻合法化。歷史上愛爾蘭的反墮胎情緒一直很強(qiáng)烈，其在墮胎問題上也達(dá)成了民主解決方案，日本也是如此(在墮胎問題上也有解決方案)，在那里女性的選擇權(quán)沒有美國(guó)那么受歡迎。沒有人認(rèn)為瑞士是一個(gè)具有前瞻性的國(guó)家(瑞士在1971年才賦予女性投票權(quán)) ，它通過公投使同性婚姻合法化。美國(guó)和意大利是七國(guó)集團(tuán)中唯一沒有將凈零排放目標(biāo)寫入法律的國(guó)家。

America has been unable to settle any of these questions through elections and votes in legislatures. The federal right to abortion was created by the Supreme Court in 1973. The closest thing to a national climate law came in 2007 when the Court decided the president could regulate carbon emissions. Then in 2015 the Court decided gay marriage was a constitutional right. In all three cases the Court stepped in when Congress had failed to legislate. Now that the Court has reversed one of those decisions and some justices are talking about undoing the others, the costs of this political abdication are ever more apparent.

美國(guó)一直無法通過選舉和立法機(jī)構(gòu)的投票來解決這些問題。聯(lián)邦政府的墮胎權(quán)是由最高法院于1973年制定的。2007年，最高法院裁定總統(tǒng)可以規(guī)范碳排放，這是最接近國(guó)家氣候法的事情。2015年，最高法院裁定同性婚姻是一項(xiàng)憲法權(quán)利。在這三個(gè)案例中，法院都是在國(guó)會(huì)未能立法的情況下介入的?，F(xiàn)在，最高法院已經(jīng)推翻了其中一項(xiàng)判決，一些法官正在討論撤銷其他判決，這種政治退位的代價(jià)越來越明顯。

The solution sounds easy: Congress should pass laws that reflect public opinion. In practice, assembling a House majority, 60 votes in the Senate and a presidential signature for anything vaguely controversial is extraordinarily hard. The result is a set of federal laws that do not reflect what Americans actually want. That is what is exceptional now.

解決辦法聽起來很簡(jiǎn)單：國(guó)會(huì)應(yīng)該通過反映公眾意見的法律。實(shí)際上，要想在眾議院獲得多數(shù)，在參議院獲得60票，并讓總統(tǒng)簽署任何有些許爭(zhēng)議的東西，都是極其困難的。結(jié)果就導(dǎo)致一系列并沒有反映美國(guó)人的實(shí)際需求的聯(lián)邦法律。這就是現(xiàn)在的例外。