A social turn--Hard work and black swans

To explain wealth and poverty, the ideas of the earliest economists are being revisited and improved

THE EMERGENCE of the discipline of economics in the 18th century was the result of people trying to explain something that had never happened before. At the time a handful of countries were becoming?fabulously?rich, while others remained dirt-poor. In 1500 the world’s richest country was twice as well-off as the poorest one; by 1750 the ratio was five to one. It is no coincidence that the most famous book in economics, published in 1776, inquired into “the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”.

black swan：黑天鵝事件，非常難以預(yù)測，且不尋常的事件，通常會(huì)引起市場連鎖負(fù)面反應(yīng)甚至顛覆。比如去年至今的新冠肺炎大流行

Fabulously??adv. /?f?bj?l?sli/ 極其；非常? fabulously wealthy/rich 極為富有

dirt-poor：adj. 非常窮困的；極貧困的

In order to explain such a divergence?between rich and poor countries, the early economists were obsessed with culture, a catch-all term encompassing a society’s beliefs, preferences and values. Adam smith, the author of “The Wealth of Nations”, explored the ways in which culture helped or hindered capitalism. He argued that certain?norms?were required in order for market economies to thrive—most importantly, that people would be self-interested, but that they would satisfy their self-interest by adapting to the needs of others. Karl Marx, a few decades later, worried that a culture of “oriental despotism” prevented the emergence of capitalism in Asia.

divergence ?/da??v??d??ns/ ?分歧; 差異?? There's a substantial divergence of opinion within the party. 黨內(nèi)意見嚴(yán)重分歧。

be?obsessed with?對(duì)···著迷

catch-all 全方位的，無所不包的，catch-all term?在這里指經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用文化解釋差異的原因，是個(gè)意義寬泛的術(shù)語。

encompass ?v. /?n?k?mp?s/??1.包含，包括，涉及（大量事物）?The job encompasses a wide range of responsibilities. 這項(xiàng)工作涉及的職責(zé)范圍很廣。2.包圍；圍繞；圍住 ?The fog soon encompassed the whole valley. 大霧很快籠罩了整個(gè)山谷。

hinder ?v. /?h?nd?(r)/ ?~ sb/sth (from sth/from doing sth) 阻礙；妨礙；阻擋 ? a political situation that hinders economic growth 妨礙經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的政治局面

norm ?n. /n??m/ ?

1.?常態(tài)；正常行為?a departure from the norm 一反常態(tài)

2.?norms [ pl. ] 規(guī)范；行為標(biāo)準(zhǔn) ?social/cultural norms 社會(huì)╱文化規(guī)范

3.?標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；定額；定量 ?detailed education norms for children of particular ages 針對(duì)具體年齡兒童的詳細(xì)教育標(biāo)準(zhǔn)

Despotism ?n. /?desp?t?z?m/ ?專制統(tǒng)治；獨(dú)裁制；暴政

The speculations of smith, Marx and others were often vague. Max Weber’s “The Protestant Ethic?and the Spirit of capitalism”, published in 1905, made them concrete. Weber argued that Protestants, in particular Calvinists, drove the emergence of capitalism due to a strong work ethic.

Protestant??n. /?pr?t?st?nt/ ??新教教徒（16世紀(jì)脫離羅馬天主教）Protestant Ethic：新教倫理，強(qiáng)調(diào)勤奮工作，崇尚節(jié)儉與時(shí)間

Calvinist?/?k?lv?n?st/ ?加爾文派

In the middle of the 20th century such cultural explanations began to fall out of favour. The rapid rise of Japan’s economy in the 1950S, and later of the Asian “tigers”, quashed?the Marxist-Weberian?notion?that Western culture alone was conducive to?industrialisation. At the same time the increasing availability of data with which to do statistical analysis meant that economists’ attention went elsewhere. Why bother with hard-to-measure matters such as morals, when it is possible to plug hard data such as capital accumulation, wages or employment into a?regression model? In 1970 Robert Solow, a Nobel prize-winner, quipped?that attempts to explain economic growth with reference to culture ended up “in a blaze of amateur sociology”.

fall out of：放棄，拋棄，從··掉下來

quash ?v. /kw??/ ?1. 宣布（法庭的裁決）無效；撤銷（判決）??His conviction was later quashed by the Court of Appeal. 后來，上訴法院撤銷了對(duì)他的有罪判決。?2.制止；阻止；平息?The rumours were quickly quashed. 流言很快被制止了。

Marxist-Weberian：韋伯式的（社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論）

Notion??n. /?n???n/ ?~ (that...)~ (of sth) 觀念；信念；理解?? a political system based on the notions of equality and liberty 建立在自由平等觀念基礎(chǔ)上的政治體系

conducive ?adj. /k?n?dju?s?v/ ?~ to sth ?使容易（或有可能）發(fā)生的? Chairs in rows are not as conducive to discussion as chairs arranged in a circle. 椅子成排擺放不如成圈擺放便于討論。

hard data：硬數(shù)據(jù)，相對(duì)于軟數(shù)據(jù)而言，是可以衡量的資料，如高度等

Quip?/kw?p/ ?n?俏皮話；妙語；v講俏皮話；譏諷；嘲弄；打趣

capital accumulation：資本積累?regression model：回歸模型

?Amateur?n ?/??m?t?(r); ??m?t??(r)/ n. 業(yè)余愛好者；生手，外行；adj. 業(yè)余愛好的；業(yè)余的；外行的；不熟練的

譯文

To explain wealth and poverty, the ideas of the earliest economists are being revisited?and improved

為解釋富有與貧窮，早期經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的觀點(diǎn)被重新吸收并發(fā)展

THE EMERGENCE of the discipline of economics in the 18th century was the result of people trying to explain something that had never happened before. At the time a handful of countries were becoming?fabulously?rich, while others remained?dirt-poor. In 1500 the world’s richest country was twice as well-off as the poorest one; by 1750 the ratio was five to one. It is no coincidence that the most famous book in economics, published in 1776, inquired into “the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)誕生于18世紀(jì)人們?yōu)榻忉屔钪袕奈闯霈F(xiàn)的情況。在當(dāng)時(shí)，少數(shù)國家變得極其富有，而其他則是窮穿地心。在1500年，最富有的國家財(cái)富是最窮的兩倍；到1750年，是五倍。1776年，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)最負(fù)盛名的書籍出版并不是巧合，它的研究領(lǐng)域是“國家財(cái)富的本質(zhì)與成因”

In order to explain such a?divergence?between rich and poor countries, the early economists?were obsessed with?culture, a?catch-all term encompassing?a society’s beliefs, preferences and values. Adam smith, the author of “The Wealth of Nations”, explored the ways in which culture helped or?hindered?capitalism. He argued that certain?norms?were required in order for market economies to thrive—most importantly, that people would be self-interested, but that they would satisfy their self-interest by adapting to the needs of others. Karl Marx, a few decades later, worried that a culture of “oriental despotism” prevented the emergence of capitalism in Asia.

為解釋國與國之間的貧富差異，早期經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家癡迷于文化，一個(gè)包羅萬象式的術(shù)語，常常包含著社會(huì)信仰、偏好及價(jià)值。亞當(dāng)·斯密，《財(cái)富論》作者，說明怎樣的文化可以幫助或是阻礙資本主義發(fā)展。他認(rèn)為特定的規(guī)范需要制定出來用于市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的興盛--最重要的是，人類利己，但是人們會(huì)通過利他來實(shí)現(xiàn)利己。幾十年之后的卡爾·馬克思擔(dān)心亞洲的獨(dú)裁統(tǒng)治阻礙了資本主義的出現(xiàn)。

The speculations of smith, Marx and others were often vague. Max Weber’s “The Protestant Ethic?and the Spirit of capitalism”, published in 1905, made them concrete. Weber argued that Protestants, in particular?Calvinists, drove the emergence of capitalism due to a strong work ethic.

亞當(dāng)·斯密、馬克思以及其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的推測還是比較模糊。馬克思·韋伯1905年出版的“新教倫理與資本主義精神”變得更加具體。韋伯認(rèn)為新教徒，尤其是加爾文派驅(qū)動(dòng)資本主義的出現(xiàn)，因?yàn)樗麄兙哂袕?qiáng)烈的職業(yè)道德。

In the middle of the 20th century such cultural explanations began to?fall out of?favour. The rapid rise of Japan’s economy in the 1950S, and later of the Asian “tigers”,?quashed?the?Marxist-Weberian?notion?that Western culture alone was?conducive to?industrialisation. At the same time the increasing availability of data with which to do statistical analysis meant that economists’ attention went elsewhere. Why bother with hard-to-measure matters such as morals, when it is possible to plug?hard data?such as?capital accumulation, wages or employment into a?regression model? In 1970 Robert Solow, a Nobel prize-winner,?quipped?that attempts to explain economic growth with reference to culture ended up “in a blaze of?amateur sociology”.

20世紀(jì)中期這種文化解釋逐漸被拋棄。50年代日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速崛起，之后亞洲四小龍，粉碎了馬克思韋伯的概念--只有西方文化有益于工業(yè)化。與此同時(shí)，可供統(tǒng)計(jì)分析的數(shù)據(jù)增加表明經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移了方向。為什么困擾于難以量化研究的例如道德這樣的變量，難道將諸如資本積累、工資及雇工之類的硬數(shù)據(jù)放入回歸模型不香嗎？1970年，羅伯特·索洛（Robert Solow），一位諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)獲得者，調(diào)侃道試圖用文化解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長結(jié)束在民科社會(huì)學(xué)的興盛中。