文章來源：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》Mar 8th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 The world economy

You might have expected the fastest tightening of global monetary policy in 40 years to deal a heavy blow to the world economy. Yet in 2023 it seems to be shrugging off the effects of higher interest rates. Not only is inflation stubbornly high, but economic activity also appears to have quickened. Faster growth may sound good, but it is a headache for policymakers, who are trying to bring about a managed slowdown. And it could mean that a recession, when it eventually strikes, is more painful.

你可能曾預(yù)計(jì)，全球40年來最快的貨幣政策收緊將對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)造成沉重打擊。然而，在2023年，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在擺脫加息的影響。不僅通貨膨脹居高不下，而且經(jīng)濟(jì)活動似乎也加快了。更快的增長聽起來不錯(cuò)，但對于正試圖實(shí)現(xiàn)可控的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的政策制定者來說，這是一個(gè)令人頭痛的問題。這可能意味著，當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退最終襲來時(shí)，會更加痛苦。

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At the end of last year, according to business surveys, manufacturing and services output were both shrinking around the world. Today manufacturing output is flat and services are rebounding. American consumers are spending freely. Both wages and prices continue to grow fast, even in places where they were long stagnant. Japan looks set for a round of bumper wage rises in the spring. In the euro zone the monthly rate of “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, broke records in February. Labour markets are extraordinarily tight. As we report this week, in half of the members of the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries, employment rates are currently at record highs.

根據(jù)商業(yè)調(diào)查顯示，去年年底，全球制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)出都在萎縮。如今，制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出持平，服務(wù)業(yè)正在反彈。美國消費(fèi)者正在大肆消費(fèi)。工資和物價(jià)繼續(xù)快速增長，即使在那些長期停滯不前的地方也是如此。日本看來將在春季迎來一輪大幅度的工資增長。在歐元區(qū)，不包括食品和能源價(jià)格的“核心”月通脹率在2月份打破了紀(jì)錄。勞動力市場異常緊張。正如我們本周報(bào)道的那樣，在經(jīng)合組織(主要由發(fā)達(dá)國家組成)半數(shù)成員國中，就業(yè)率目前處于歷史新高。

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From equities to credit, financial markets are priced for global economic growth that is above trend. Not so long ago, investors were debating whether the world economy would face a “hard landing” involving a recession, or a “soft landing”, in which inflation was conquered without any downturn. Today they are asking whether the world economy is landing at all.

從股票到信貸，金融市場的定價(jià)都是基于高于趨勢水平的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。就在不久前，投資者還在爭論世界經(jīng)濟(jì)是會面臨衰退的“硬著陸”，還是在沒有任何衰退的情況下克服通脹的“軟著陸”。如今，他們在問，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)是否正在著陸。

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There are several reasons for the apparent acceleration. The mini-boom that took hold in the markets late in 2022 stimulated animal spirits. China’s reopening from zero-covid has led to a swift economic recovery which has caused order books in emerging markets to fill up. Falling energy prices in Europe have loosened the screws on its economy. But above all else, consumers and firms in most big economies are in strikingly good financial health. Many households are still flush with savings built up during the covid-19 pandemic; firms managed to lock in low interest rates for long stretches and have yet to suffer much from higher borrowing costs. Only in the most rate-sensitive sectors of the global economy, such as property, is the impact of higher rates clearly visible. In America the economy is so strong that even housing may be recovering slightly.

這種明顯的加速有幾個(gè)原因。2022年底市場出現(xiàn)的小繁榮刺激了動物精神。中國從疫情中重新放開，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速復(fù)蘇，新興市場的訂單量激增。歐洲不斷下跌的能源價(jià)格放松了對其經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制。但最重要的是，大多數(shù)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況都非常好。許多家庭仍然有大量在covid-19大流行期間積累的儲蓄; 那些設(shè)法在長期鎖定低利率的企業(yè)，并沒有受到更高借貸成本的影響。只有在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中對利率最敏感的行業(yè)，如房地產(chǎn)，加息的影響才清晰可見。在美國，經(jīng)濟(jì)非常強(qiáng)勁，甚至連房地產(chǎn)市場都可能略有復(fù)蘇。

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The acceleration means that recession is not imminent. But it also means that central banks will have to raise interest rates further if they are to succeed in returning inflation to their 2% targets. On March 7th Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted as much, causing stockmarkets to fall. Policymakers now face two difficult judgments.

這種加速意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退并非迫在眉睫。但這也意味著，如果央行想要成功地將通脹恢復(fù)到2%的目標(biāo)，就必須進(jìn)一步提高利率。3月7日，美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾也暗示了這一點(diǎn)，這導(dǎo)致股市下跌。政策制定者現(xiàn)在面臨兩個(gè)艱難的判斷。

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The first is the extent to which monetary tightening to date has yet to have its full effect. Economists often talk up the “l(fā)ong and variable lags” with which interest rates work, but research suggests policy may be working faster today. If the effects of last year’s tightening are already exhausted, much more may be needed. A second judgment is over the persistence of the factors that seem to have immunised much of the economy against rate rises. Eventually, consumers will run out of spare cash and firms will feel the pinch from higher borrowing costs. In Sweden, where interest-rate rises rapidly pass through to households, the economy is suffering.

首先是迄今為止尚未完全發(fā)揮作用的貨幣緊縮政策的程度。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)常談?wù)摾拾l(fā)揮作用的“長期和可變滯后”效應(yīng)，但研究表明，如今政策可能起作用的速度更快。如果去年緊縮政策的效果已經(jīng)耗盡，可能還需要更多措施。第二個(gè)判斷是，那些似乎讓大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)體免受加息影響的因素持續(xù)存在。最終消費(fèi)者將耗盡閑置現(xiàn)金，企業(yè)將感受到借貸成本上升帶來的壓力。在瑞典，加息迅速影響到家庭，經(jīng)濟(jì)正在遭受沖擊。

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One thing is clear: the ideal path, where inflation falls without growth faltering much, looks narrower than it did even a month ago. Instead, central banks are increasingly likely to have to choose between tolerating higher inflation or slamming on the brakes for a second year running.

有一件事是明確的: 理想的路徑，即通脹下降而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不大幅放緩，甚至比一個(gè)月前看起來都要窄。相反，各國央行越來越有可能不得不在容忍通脹上升和連續(xù)第二年猛踩剎車之間做出選擇。