Costing the earth

讓地球付出代價

【《讓地球付出代價》是BBC廣播4臺的一檔節(jié)目，關注人類對環(huán)境的影響以及環(huán)境的反應，質疑公認的事實，挑戰(zhàn)當權者，報道改善世界的進展?！?/p>

Countries most exposed to climate change face higher costs of capital

受氣候變化影響最大的國家面臨更高的資本成本

Poor countries find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle

貧窮國家發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷入了一個惡性循環(huán)

詞匯

vicious cycle /惡性循環(huán)

Aug 17th 2019

IN EAST AFRICA millions of people are suffering from a prolonged drought. Deadly typhoons are wreaking havoc in Vietnam. Honduran coffee-farmers are seeing their crops wither in the heat. Poor countries have less capacity than rich ones to adapt to changing weather patterns, and tend to be closer to the equator, where weather patterns are becoming most volatile. As the world heats up, they will suffer most.

在東非，數(shù)百萬人正在遭受長期干旱。致命的臺風正在越南肆虐。洪都拉斯咖啡農看到他們的作物在高溫下枯萎。窮國適應氣候變化的能力不如富國，而且往往更接近赤道，而赤道的氣候模式正變得最反復無常。隨著世界變暖，他們將遭受最大的損失。

詞匯

Havoc/大破壞；浩劫；蹂躪

Equator/赤道

Volatile/不穩(wěn)定的；反復無常的

By 2030 poor countries will need to spend $140bn-300bn each year on adaptive measures, such as coastal defences, if they want to avoid the harm caused by climate change. That estimate, from the UN Environment Programme, assumes that global temperatures will be only 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, which seems unlikely. Adding to the costs, research suggests that these countries face higher interest rates than similar countries less exposed to climate risks. This raises the prospect of a vicious cycle, in which the most vulnerable countries pay more to borrow, making adaptation harder and them even more exposed.

到2030年，貧窮國家若想避免氣候變化帶來的危害，每年將需要花費1400億至3000億美元用于海岸防御等適應性措施。這一估計來自聯(lián)合國環(huán)境規(guī)劃署，他們假定到本世紀末，全球氣溫將僅比工業(yè)化前水平高出2攝氏度，但這似乎不太可能。此外，研究表明，這些國家面臨的利率要高于受氣候風險影響較小的類似國家。這就增加了惡性循環(huán)的可能性，在這種惡性循環(huán)中，最脆弱的國家需要支付更多的借款，這使得適應氣候變化變得更加困難，而且他們的風險更大。

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The research focuses on the V20, a group founded by 20 vulnerable countries whose membership has since grown to 48. The members are mostly poor, together accounting for less than 5% of global GDP. They include low-lying atolls, such as the Marshall Islands, and economies dominated by agriculture, such as Kenya. The researchers, led by Ulrich Volz of SOAS University of London and Bob Buhr of Imperial College Business School, examined sovereign-bond yields between 1996 and 2016 for 46 countries, 25 of them in the V20. After controlling for non-climate factors, such as income per person and levels of public debt, they estimate that V20 countries must pay interest rates 1.2 percentage points higher than comparable countries. That raises the V20’s borrowing costs by about 10%, equivalent to an extra $4bn each year in interest payments.

這項研究的重點是V20，這是一個由20個脆弱國家組成的組織，其成員已經增加到48個。這些成員國大多很窮，加起來不到全球GDP的5%。成員包含低洼的環(huán)礁，如馬紹爾群島，以及以農業(yè)為主的經濟體，如肯尼亞。由倫敦大學亞非學院的烏爾里希?沃爾茲和帝國理工學院商學院的鮑勃?布爾領導的研究人員對46個國家1996年至2016年間的主權債券收益率進行了研究，其中25個國家屬于V20。在控制了人均收入和公共債務水平等非氣候因素后，他們估計V20國家必須支付比同等國家高1.2個百分點的利率。這將V20國家的借貸成本提高了約10%，相當于每年額外支付40億美元的利息。

詞匯

Atoll/環(huán)礁；環(huán)狀珊瑚島

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Companies may also be charged more for loans if they are perceived as more exposed to climate-related risks. In a new paper researchers at SOAS looked at the cost of corporate debt for more than 60,000 firms in 80 countries. A fifth of the companies, holding about 3% of the total debt, were in the countries most vulnerable to climate change. They were charged interest rates on average 0.83 percentage points higher—again roughly a 10% premium.

如果企業(yè)被認為更容易受到氣候相關風險的影響，它們的貸款可能也會被收取更高的費用。在亞非學院的一篇新論文中，研究人員對80個國家的6萬多家公司的公司債務成本進行了研究。其中五分之一的公司(約占總債務的3%)位于最易受氣候變化影響的國家。他們收取的利息平均高出0.83個百分點——大約是10%的溢價。

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High interest rates largely reflect a greater risk of default. So credit-rating agencies are looking at climate risks, too. Undiversified economies that are reliant on agriculture are particularly susceptible, says Marie Diron of Moody’s. In the 37 countries that the firm thinks are most vulnerable, farming accounts for 44% of employment on average. (Together they have issued $2.8trn of sovereign debt, about 4% of the world’s total.) Those relying on tourism could also be in trouble. And climate-exposed countries often have weak institutions, says Ms Diron. They struggle to plan for and respond to disasters.

高利率在很大程度上反映了更大的違約風險。因此，信用評級機構也在關注氣候風險。穆迪公司的瑪麗?迪倫說，依賴農業(yè)的單一經濟體尤其容易受到影響。在該公司認為最脆弱的37個國家中，平均44%的就業(yè)來自農業(yè)。(它們總共發(fā)行了2.8萬億美元的主權債務，約占全球總債務的4%。)那些依賴旅游業(yè)的國家也可能陷入困境。迪倫女士說，受氣候影響的國家往往公共機構薄弱。他們努力于計劃和應對災難。

詞匯

Undiversified/單一的；無變化的；千篇一律的

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Some of the smaller vulnerable countries have been attempting to build climate resilience by pooling insurance risk to make premiums more affordable. The first such attempt was the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, which has paid out $139m since it was founded in 2007. The payouts help alleviate cashflow problems after disasters, reassuring investors and credit-rating agencies. In the past five years similar insurance schemes have popped up in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America and the Pacific.

一些易受氣候變化影響的小國家一直在試圖通過分擔保險風險來提高保費的可承受性，從而增強氣候適應能力。第一個此類嘗試是加勒比巨災風險保險基金(Caribbean disaster Risk Insurance Facility)，自2007年成立以來，該基金已支付1.39億美元。這些支出有助于緩解災難后的現(xiàn)金流問題，安撫投資者和信用評級機構。在過去的五年里，類似的保險計劃在撒哈拉以南的非洲、中美洲和太平洋地區(qū)出現(xiàn)。

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Others are seeking to reduce the interest-rate premium with “blended finance”, whereby multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank bear part of the risk for mitigation and climate-resilience projects. In April the V20 launched such a programme. Officials plan to apply to use $500m from the UN’S Green Climate Fund in the V20. Such schemes will help, but only a bit. In truth, climate-vulnerable countries can do little to offset the rise in the cost of capital.

其他國家則尋求通過“混合融資”來降低利率溢價，即由世界銀行(World Bank)和亞洲開發(fā)銀行(Asian Development Bank)等多邊機構承擔減緩和氣候適應項目的部分風險。今年4月，V20國家中推出了這樣一個項目。官員們計劃在V20中申請使用來自聯(lián)合國綠色氣候基金的5億美元。這樣的計劃會有所幫助，但只是一點點。事實上，易受氣候影響的國家?guī)缀鯚o法彌補資本成本的上升。

詞匯

Mitigation/ 減輕；緩和；平靜

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