Britaly

“英大利”

The low-growth gang

低增長(zhǎng)國(guó)家

What a comparison between Britain and Italy reveals

英國(guó)和意大利之間的對(duì)比揭示了什么?

1 BRITAIN HAS long thought of itself as being part of the same economic club as America, France or Germany. It is, after all, the third-biggest economy in the West. So it is a mark of the glum mood in the country that commentators are now drawing comparisons to Italy instead—a place that, aside from la dolce vita, is known for interminable political drama, economic stagnation and nervous bond markets. The two countries’ economies and fiscal positions differ considerably, not least because Italy uses the euro and does not have its own monetary policy. A comparison is revealing nonetheless. ?

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，英國(guó)一直認(rèn)為自己與美國(guó)、法國(guó)或德國(guó)是同一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)俱樂(lè)部的成員。畢竟，它是西方第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。因此，現(xiàn)在評(píng)論家們將其與意大利相提并論是該國(guó)悲觀(guān)情緒的一個(gè)標(biāo)志--除了奢華無(wú)憂(yōu)的生活之外，意大利還以無(wú)休止的政治戲劇、經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯和緊張的債券市場(chǎng)而聞名。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政狀況有很大的不同，尤其是因?yàn)橐獯罄褂脷W元，沒(méi)有自己的貨幣政策。然而，把它們比較一下還是很有意義的。?

2 Both Britain and Italy have an economic-growth problem that stems from underinvestment and lacklustre productivity, which in turn reflects deep-rooted structural factors. But Italy’s disease is considerably more advanced. Its living standards, measured by real GDP per person, have not risen since 2000. That in part reflects an ageing population. Italy has 37 old people for every 100 of working age, compared with 30 in Britain and 26 in America. Its courts and public administrators make decisions at glacial speed, which impedes business. A thicket of regulations is one reason why the country’s many small, often family-run firms do not expand.?

英國(guó)和意大利都有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的問(wèn)題，源于投資不足和生產(chǎn)力低下，而這又反映了根深蒂固的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素。但意大利的病癥要嚴(yán)重得多。它的生活水平，以實(shí)際人均GDP衡量，自2000年以來(lái)一直沒(méi)有上升。這在一定程度上反映了人口老齡化。意大利每100個(gè)適齡工作人口對(duì)應(yīng)37個(gè)老人，而英國(guó)是30個(gè)，美國(guó)是26個(gè)。意大利的法院和公共管理部門(mén)以冰山移動(dòng)的速度作出決定，其緩慢決策阻礙了商業(yè)發(fā)展。紛繁復(fù)雜的法規(guī)是該國(guó)許多小型、通常是家族經(jīng)營(yíng)的公司無(wú)法擴(kuò)張的原因之一。?

3 Britain’s decline is at an earlier stage. GDP per person is still growing, although it has fallen behind America and Germany since the mid-2000s. Impeded credit flows after the financial crisis, restrictive planning rules and a poorly skilled workforce mean that investment and productivity growth is nearly as low as in Italy (see chart 1). Investment as a share of GDP was 18% in 2019, below 21-23% in America, France and Germany, but in line with that in Italy (see chart 2). All of this has dire consequences for living standards in the future. ?

英國(guó)的衰退處于早期階段。人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值仍在增長(zhǎng)，盡管在21世紀(jì)前十年的中期以來(lái)，它已落后于美國(guó)和德國(guó)。金融危機(jī)后信貸流動(dòng)受阻，限制性的規(guī)劃制度和技能低下的勞動(dòng)力意味著投資和生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)幾乎和意大利一樣低（見(jiàn)圖1）。2019年投資占GDP的比例為18%，低于美國(guó)、法國(guó)和德國(guó)的21-23%，與意大利的比例一致（見(jiàn)圖2）。所有這些都對(duì)未來(lái)的生活水平產(chǎn)生了可怕的后果。 ?

4 The malaise is apparent in stockmarkets, too. As companies elsewhere, chiefly in America and China, have innovated and swelled, Britain’s stockmarket has shrunk in importance. Its share of global market capitalisation has fallen from 8% to 3% over the past 20 years. Its importance in Europe’s total market value has declined, too. Italy’s share of the world’s stockmarket was never as big as Britain’s was, but it has shrunk at a similar pace.?

這種萎靡不振在股票市場(chǎng)上也很明顯。隨著其他地方的公司，主要是美國(guó)和中國(guó)的公司的創(chuàng)新和擴(kuò)張，英國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的重要性已經(jīng)萎縮。在過(guò)去的20年里，它在全球市場(chǎng)資本化中的份額已經(jīng)從8%下降到3%。它在歐洲總市場(chǎng)價(jià)值中的重要性也在下降。意大利在世界股市中的份額從未像英國(guó)那樣大，但它以類(lèi)似的速度萎縮。?

5 Both countries have serious regional imbalances. In Italy, the richer manufacturing-oriented north has long left the south in the dust. In 2019 GDP per person in the south was about half of that in the north. Britain is also unbalanced, with output per worker in London around 70% higher than that in the north-east of England. It is possible to construct lots of other measures of regional inequality, depending on the size of the region and the measure of income used. In 2019 Philip McCann, then an economist at the University of Sheffield, put together 28 of them for 30 of the mostly rich members of the OECD. He concluded that Britain was the most geographically unequal large advanced country, with Italy a close second.

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這兩個(gè)國(guó)家都有嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)不平衡現(xiàn)象。在意大利，以制造業(yè)為導(dǎo)向的較富裕的北部地區(qū)早已將南部地區(qū)甩在身后。2019年，南方的人均GDP約為北方的一半。英國(guó)也是不平衡的，倫敦的每個(gè)工人的產(chǎn)出比英格蘭東北部高出約70%。還有很多其他標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)衡量區(qū)域不平衡，比如將區(qū)域大小和可支配收入作為衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。2019年，時(shí)任謝菲爾德大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的菲利普-麥肯為經(jīng)合組織的30個(gè)主要富裕成員匯總了其中的28個(gè)。他得出結(jié)論，英國(guó)是地理上最不平等的大型先進(jìn)國(guó)家，意大利緊隨其后。 ?

6 When it comes to the countries’ financing positions, however, the picture is more complex. Italy has high net public debt, of around 138% of GDP in 2021. Its slow economic growth means that those debts risk becoming unsustainable. Moreover, it is a member of a currency union with shared monetary policy, which means it cannot benefit from a weaker currency to boost its economy or prevent a run on its public debt. Its failure to implement reforms, revive growth and lighten its debt burden means that investors tend to worry about its creditworthiness. As a result, they demand a premium, or a “spread”, to hold Italian debt over safer German Bunds. Over the years, fears about spreads widening have led the European Central Bank to devise various schemes to buy government bonds in times of trouble. ?

然而，當(dāng)涉及到各國(guó)的融資狀況時(shí)，情況就比較復(fù)雜了。意大利的公共債務(wù)凈額很高，在2021年約為GDP的138%。其緩慢的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)意味著這些債務(wù)有可能變得難以為繼。此外，它是一個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟（歐盟）的成員，有共同的貨幣政策，這意味著它不能從較弱的貨幣中受益，以促進(jìn)其經(jīng)濟(jì)或防止其公共債務(wù)被擠兌。它未能實(shí)施改革、恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)和減輕債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，這意味著投資者容易擔(dān)心其信用度。因此，他們要求獲得溢價(jià)，即 "利差"，以持有意大利債券而不是更安全的德國(guó)債券。多年來(lái)，對(duì)利差擴(kuò)大的擔(dān)心導(dǎo)致歐洲中央銀行制定了各種計(jì)劃，以在困難時(shí)期購(gòu)買(mǎi)政府債券。?

7 Britain has far lower public debt, of 85% of GDP. It has its own currency and a central bank that sets interest rates for the country alone. The government’s mindless mini-budget jolted investors into expecting higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates from the Bank of England, which pushed up government-bond yields. It also prompted an emergency intervention by the bank to stop a fire-sale of assets by pension funds. The market turmoil has prompted the government to reverse its plans, rather as bond markets forced Italy’s governments to change course in 2011 and 2018. But few investors worry that Britain will default on its debts.?

英國(guó)的公共債務(wù)要低得多，占GDP的85%。它有自己的貨幣和一個(gè)為該國(guó)單獨(dú)制定利率的中央銀行。政府盲目的“迷你預(yù)算”計(jì)劃使投資者感到震驚，他們預(yù)期通貨膨脹率會(huì)上升，因此英格蘭銀行會(huì)提高利率，這推高了政府債券的收益。這也促使英國(guó)央行進(jìn)行緊急干預(yù)，以阻止火速拋售養(yǎng)老金資產(chǎn)的行為。市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩促使政府推翻其計(jì)劃，就像債券市場(chǎng)在2011年和2018年迫使意大利政府改變方向一樣。但很少有投資者擔(dān)心英國(guó)會(huì)債務(wù)違約。

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The kindness of strangers

陌生人的善意?

8 Britain relies more on external financing than Italy does, however. According to the IMF, it is likely to run a current account deficit of nearly 5% of GDP this year, meaning that it is a net borrower from abroad. (Italy’s deficit is expected to be 0.2%.) That means financing conditions rely in part on the appetite of foreign investors for domestic assets. And the less the country does to fix its growth problem, the less attractive it becomes for investment. Political paralysis has consequences.

英國(guó)比意大利更依賴(lài)外部融資。根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，英國(guó)如今的財(cái)政赤字可能接近GDP的5%，這意味著英國(guó)是一個(gè)海外凈借款國(guó)。(意大利的赤字預(yù)計(jì)為0.2%。）還意味著融資條件部分取決于外國(guó)投資者對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)資產(chǎn)的胃口。而英國(guó)在解決其增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題方面做得越少，對(duì)投資的吸引力就越小。政治癱瘓是有后果的。