The world’s financial markets are going through their most painful adjustment since the global financial crisis. Adapting to the prospect of higher American interest rates, the ten-year Treasury yield briefly hit 4% this week, its highest level since 2010. Global stockmarkets have sold off sharply, and bond portfolios have lost an astonishing 21% this year.?

世界金融市場正在經(jīng)歷全球金融危機以來最痛苦的調(diào)整。為了適應(yīng)美國加息的前景，十年期國債收益率本周短暫達到4%，這是自2010年以來的最高水平。全球股票市場急劇下跌，今年債券投資組合損失了21%，令人震驚。

The dollar is crushing all comers. The greenback is up by 5.5% since mid-August on a trade-weighted basis, partly because the Fed is raising rates but also because investors are backing away from risk. Across Asia, governments are intervening to resist the depreciation of their currencies. In Europe Britain has poured the fuel of reckless fiscal policy on the fire, causing it to lose the confidence of investors. And as bond yields surge, the euro zone’s indebted economies are looking theirmost fragile since the sovereign-debt crisis a decade ago.

美元正在讓所有“參與者”崩潰。自8月中旬以來，美元在貿(mào)易加權(quán)的基礎(chǔ)上上漲了5.5%，部分原因是美聯(lián)儲提高了利率，但也因為投資者在規(guī)避風(fēng)險。在整個亞洲，各國政府都在進行干預(yù)，以抵制本國貨幣貶值。在歐洲，英國不計后果的財政政策更是火上澆油，這導(dǎo)致投資者失去信心。隨著債券收益率的飆升，歐元區(qū)的負(fù)債經(jīng)濟體看起來是自十年前的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機以來最脆弱的。

The primary cause of the market chaos is the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Because the Fed has lost the first three or four rounds since prices began to surge in 2021, it is now swinging harder. The central bank expects to raise the federal funds rate to nearly 4.5% by the end of the year and higher still in 2023. The outlook for rates is rippling through America’s financial system. The cost of 30-year mortgages is nearly 7%. Junk-bond yields are already over 9%, which has caused the issuance of new debt to dry up. Bankers who underwrote leveraged buy-outs when yields were lower are suddenly finding themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in the red. Pension funds which gorged on opaque private assets in pursuit of higher returns when rates were lower must now tot up their losses as risky investments slump in value.?

市場混亂的主要原因是美聯(lián)儲對抗通貨膨脹。自2021年價格開始飆升以來，美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)損失了前三、四輪加息，其現(xiàn)在的波動更大了。美聯(lián)儲預(yù)計到今年年底將把聯(lián)邦基金利率提高到接近4.5%，2023年還會更高。利率的前景正在波及美國的金融體系。30年期抵押貸款的成本接近7%。垃圾債券的收益率已經(jīng)超過9%，這導(dǎo)致了新債券的發(fā)行枯竭。那些在收益率較低時承銷杠桿收購的銀行家，突然發(fā)現(xiàn)自己虧損了數(shù)億美元。在利率較低時，養(yǎng)老基金大量投資于不透明的私人資產(chǎn)，以求獲得更高的回報，如今，隨著風(fēng)險投資價值縮水，這些基金必須合計自己的虧損。

Yet it is outside America where the financial effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening have been most severe. The surging dollar is painful for energy importers that were already grappling with higher costs. China has responded by making it harder to short the Chinese, which in the offshore market hit a record low against the greenback on September 28th. India, Thailand and Singapore have intervened in financial markets to support their currencies. Excluding China, emerging-market currency reserves have fallen by over $200bn in the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase, a bank—the fastest fall in two decades.

然而，美聯(lián)儲貨幣緊縮政策對金融的影響在美國之外最為嚴(yán)重。對于已經(jīng)在艱難應(yīng)對成本上漲的能源進口國來說，美元不斷走高是件痛苦的事。作為回應(yīng)，中國加大了做空人民幣的難度，人民幣兌美元匯率在9月28日創(chuàng)下歷史新低。印度、泰國和新加坡都已對金融市場進行干預(yù)，以支撐本國貨幣。根據(jù)摩根大通銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，除去[]，新興市場的外匯儲備在過去的一年里減少了2000億美元，這是20年來最大降幅。

Advanced economies can usually withstand dollar strength. Today, if anything, they are showing greater signs of immediate stress. Some of the worst-performing currencies in 2022 are from the rich world. Sweden raised rates by a full percentage point on September 20th and still saw its currency fall against the dollar. In Britain surging yields on government debt have failed to attract much foreign capital. The Bank of Korea is lending currency reserves to the national pension fund so that it buys fewer dollars in the open market. In Japan the government has intervened to buy yen for the first time this century, despite the apparently ironclad determination of the central bank to keep interest rates low.

發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體通常能承受美元走強。如今，如果說有什么不同的話，那就是他們正更多表現(xiàn)出直接的壓力。2022年一些表現(xiàn)最差的貨幣來自發(fā)達國家。瑞典在9月20日將利率提高了一個百分點，但瑞典貨幣對美元的匯率仍在下跌。在英國，飆升的政府債券收益率未能吸引到大量外國資本。韓國央行正在向國民養(yǎng)老基金發(fā)放外匯儲備，以便減少在公開市場上購買的美元。在日本，政府干預(yù)購買日元，這是本世紀(jì)以來的第一次，盡管央行顯然決心保持低利率。

Part of the explanation for the pressure on advanced-economy currencies is that many central banks have hitherto failed to keep pace with the Fed’s tightening—but with good reason, because their economies are weaker. The energy crisis is about to plunge Europe into recession. South Korea and Japan are suffering the knock-on effects of an economic slowdown in [], brought about by its housing crisis and zero-covid policy.

對發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體貨幣壓力的部分解釋是，迄今為止，許多央行未能跟上美聯(lián)儲的緊縮步伐——但這是有充分理由的，因為它們的經(jīng)濟更弱。能源危機即將使歐洲陷入衰退。韓國和日本正受到房地產(chǎn)危機和零冠肺炎政策導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟放緩的連鎖反應(yīng)。

A strong dollar, in effect, exports America’s domestic inflation problem to weaker economies. They can support their currencies by raising rates in line with the Fed, but only at the cost of even lower growth. Britain has the worst of both worlds. Markets now expect the Bank of England to set the highest rates of any big rich economy next year but sterling has slumped all the same. If the bank follows through with rate rises, the housing market could collapse.

實際上，美元走強將美國國內(nèi)的通貨膨脹問題輸出到較弱的經(jīng)濟體。他們可以通過與美聯(lián)儲保持一致的加息來支撐本國貨幣，但這只能以更低的增長為代價。英國在這兩個方面都是最差的。市場現(xiàn)在預(yù)期英國央行明年將制定所有大型發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體中最高的利率水平，但英鎊匯率仍會下跌。如果央行堅持加息，房地產(chǎn)市場可能會崩潰。

Even America’s economy, which has been resilient in the face of headwinds this year, is unlikely to keep growing through an interest-rate shock as severe as the one it now faces. House prices are falling, banks are laying off staff and FedEx and Ford, two economic bellwethers, have issued profit warnings. It is only a matter of time before the unemployment rate starts rising. A slowing economy is ultimately necessary to restore price stability—it would be madness for the Fed to tolerate annual inflation of 8.3%, much of which is home-grown. But higher rates will damage the real economy and cause suffering. The world’s financial markets are just waking up to that, too.

即使是在今年的逆風(fēng)面前一直保持彈性的美國經(jīng)濟，也不太可能在當(dāng)前如此嚴(yán)重的利率沖擊中保持增長。房價在下跌，銀行在裁員，聯(lián)邦快遞和福特這兩家經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)頭羊都發(fā)布了盈利預(yù)警。失業(yè)率上升只是時間問題。經(jīng)濟放緩是恢復(fù)物價穩(wěn)定的最終必要條件，如果美聯(lián)儲能容忍8.3%的年通貨膨脹率，那將是瘋狂的，因為大部分通貨膨脹是由美國國內(nèi)產(chǎn)生的。但更高的利率將損害實體經(jīng)濟，并造成痛苦。世界金融市場也剛剛意識到這一點。