Almost every day for four months buses carrying asylum-seeking migrants have disembarked near the heart of American power, just half a mile from Capitol Hill. So far more than 6,000 people have arrived on these buses, sent by the governors of Arizona and Texas in a none-too-subtle jab at what they see as President Joe Biden’s weakness on immigration. It is the latest chapter in a decades-long fight over how to control entries from Mexico.

【1】disembark 使..下來

四個月來，幾乎每天都有載著尋求庇護的移民的大巴在美國權力中心附近下車，離國會山只有半英里。到目前為止，已經(jīng)有超過6000人乘坐這些巴士來到這里，這些巴士是由亞利桑那州和德克薩斯州的州長派來的，毫不含糊地抨擊了他們所認為的喬·拜登總統(tǒng)在移民問題上的軟弱。這是關于如何控制來自墨西哥的入境的長達數(shù)十年的斗爭的最新篇章。

This border crisishas come to dominate media coverage and political debate about immigration in America. All the while,another crisis of the opposite sort is brewing: a broader decline in immigration. The resulting shortfall in the population is already making it harder for companies to find workers and threatens to do more damage to the economy. But whereas unauthorised border crossings are a perennial controversy, the drop in overall immigration has barely registered in Congress.

這場邊境危機已經(jīng)成為美國媒體報道和有關移民的政治辯論的主要內(nèi)容。與此同時，另一場相反類型的危機正在醞釀：移民人數(shù)的大幅度下降。由此導致的人口短缺已經(jīng)使企業(yè)更難找到工人，并可能對經(jīng)濟造成更大的損害。然而，盡管非法越境是一個長期存在的爭議，但美國國會幾乎沒有注意到移民總數(shù)的下降。

Net international migration—that is, accounting for both arrivals, whether authorised or not, and departures—added 247,000 to America’s population between July 2020 and July 2021. That was the smallest increase in the past three decades, and less than a third of the annual average during that time.The covid pandemic explained much of the drop, as America barred international visitors from dozens of countries, closed consulates around the world and froze many applications.

【1】consulate 領事館

在2020年7月至2021年7月期間，凈國際移民(包括入境和出境，無論是否合法)使美國增加了24.7萬人口。這是過去30年來增幅最小的一次，不到同期年平均增幅的三分之一。新冠肺炎疫情是造成這一降幅的主要原因，因為美國禁止來自幾十個國家的國際游客入境，關閉了世界各地的領事館，并凍結了許多申請。

But the decline began before covid. Net immigration has trended down since 2017, Donald Trump’s first year in office.High-profile restrictions on travel from several predominately Muslim countriesset the tone for his administration. Most important, itput sand in the gears of the immigration processby, for instance, adding interviews and raising fees.Emigration has been another factor. The number of Mexicans living in America peaked 15 years ago. Many older migrants have returned home. Indeed, for all the furore about the southern border, the estimated population of unauthorised immigrants in the United States has declined during that same period, from 12.2m in 2007 to perhaps 10m in 2020.

但這種下降在新冠出現(xiàn)之前就開始了。自2017年唐納德·特朗普上任的第一年以來，凈移民人數(shù)呈下降趨勢。對幾個以穆斯林為主的國家的旅行的高調(diào)限制為他的政府定下了基調(diào)。最重要的是，它通過增加面試和提高費用等方式，阻礙了移民進程。移民是另一個因素。居住在美國的墨西哥人數(shù)量在15年前達到頂峰。許多年長的移民已經(jīng)返回家鄉(xiāng)。事實上，由于美國南部邊境問題引起了軒然大波，同期美國非法移民的估計人數(shù)已從2007年的1220萬下降到2020年的1000萬左右。

The shortfall is visible in the labour market. Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour of the University of California, Davis, estimate that by February America was missing roughly 1.8m working-age foreign migrants relative to its post-2010 trend. Industries with higher shares of migrant workers tend to have higher vacancy rates now. Strikingly, that is true across the skills spectrum.?

這種下降在勞動力市場上顯而易見。加州大學戴維斯分校的Giovanni Peri和Reem Zaiour估計，與2010年后的趨勢相比，到2月份，美國大約失去了180萬處于工作年齡的外國移民。目前，移民工人比例較高的行業(yè)空缺率較高。令人驚訝的是，移民工人比例在所有行業(yè)內(nèi)都很高。

Employers in the restaurant and accommodation sector, which draws a quarter of its employees from the foreign-born population, could not fill about 15% of job openings last year. In professional and business services, where the foreign-born make up a fifth of workers, doing everything from architectural sketches to tax preparation, roughly 10% of jobs went unfilled last year. That, in turn, may be contributing to higher wages, with pay rising especially quickly for low-income earners.

去年，餐飲和住宿行業(yè)的雇主無法填補約15%的職位空缺。該行業(yè)四分之一的員工來自外國出生的人口。在專業(yè)和商業(yè)服務領域，外國出生的人占了員工總數(shù)的五分之一，他們從事從建筑草圖到稅務準備的各種工作，去年約有10%的職位空缺。這反過來可能會導致工資上漲，低收入者的工資上漲尤其快。

The fact that a decline in immigration could have such an impact is, on the one hand, unsurprising. New immigrants accounted for nearly 70% of the growth in the American labour force in the 2010s. Over the next two decades, immigrants are likely to be the only source of growth. The Pew Research Centre calculates that without new arrivals America’s labour force would decline to 163m in 2040 from 166m in 2020. If net immigration were to return to pre-pandemic levels, the labour force would instead grow to 178m by 2040.?

一方面，移民數(shù)量的下降會產(chǎn)生這樣的影響，這并不令人意外。在2010年代，新移民占美國勞動力增長的近70%。在未來20年里，移民可能是經(jīng)濟增長的唯一來源。皮尤研究中心估計，如果沒有新移民，美國的勞動力將從2020年的1.66億下降到2040年的1.63億。如果凈移民恢復到大流行前的水平，到2040年，勞動力將增長到1.78億。

On the other hand, the relentless focus on America’s southern border seems to have obscured the bigger picture. Even the Federal Reserve failed to note the remarkable drop in immigration as a cause of labour-market tightness in either of its monetary-policy reports to Congress last year. In February this year it acknowledged at last that reduced immigration had probably constrained the labour supply.

另一方面，對美國南部邊境的無休止關注似乎掩蓋了大部分情況。就連美聯(lián)儲在去年提交給國會的兩份貨幣政策報告中也沒有提到移民數(shù)量的顯著下降是勞動力市場緊張的原因之一。今年2月，它終于承認移民減少可能限制了勞動力供應。

Businesses are noticing the gaps. In an analysis published on July 15th, the usChamber of Commerce outlined how widespread the problems are. Just one out of every three individuals seeking standard employment visas or seasonal work visas was successful last year, while one in four applicants for highly skilled work visas will make the cut this year. Each of these visa categories is subject to quotas created in 1990. They “have not been sufficiently updated to serve our national interest,” says Jon Baselice of the us Chamber.

企業(yè)正在注意到這些空缺。在7月15日發(fā)表的一份分析報告中，美國商會概述了這些問題的普遍性。去年，申請標準工作簽證或季節(jié)性工作簽證的人中，只有三分之一的人成功，而今年申請高技能工作簽證的人中，將有四分之一的人成功。每一類簽證都受1990年設定的配額限制。美國商會的Jon Baselice表示，它們“尚未得到充分更新，以服務于我們的國家利益”。

Some delays are absurd. David Bier of the Cato Institute, a think-tank, estimates that Indians with degrees face a notional 90-year wait for green cards. From farm groups to theme-park associations, lobbyists have been asking the government to make it easier for American firms to hire from abroad. Silicon Valley’s tech giants have long clamoured for the same, arguing that they need foreign tech talent to stay at the global leading edge.

有些延遲是荒謬的。智囊團卡托研究所的David Bier估計，擁有學位的印度人要想拿到綠卡，可能要等上90年。從農(nóng)場組織到主題公園協(xié)會的游說者一直要求政府讓美國公司更容易從國外招聘員工。長期以來，硅谷的科技巨頭們一直呼吁采取同樣的做法，認為他們需要外國科技人才來保持全球領先地位。

There is, however, little prospect of real change. The last concerted attempt at comprehensive immigration reform fizzled out in 2013, blocked by Republicans. The idea then, still seen by many advocates as the holy grail, was to combine greater openings for foreigners to work in America with some legalisation of unauthorised migrants plus tighter border security. As it turns out, the only real movement has been on bolstering border controls, symbolised by Mr Trump’s extension of the wall between America and Mexico. Lack of progress in expanding legal channels has pushed yet more migrants to view unchecked border crossings and asylum claims as their best route into America.

然而，真正的改變前景渺茫。2013年，在共和黨的阻撓下，上一次全面移民改革的努力以失敗告終。當時的想法(許多支持者仍在努力追求)是將擴大外國人在美國工作的機會與一些非法移民的合法化以及更嚴格的邊境安全結合起來。事實證明，唯一真正的行動是加強邊境控制，特朗普延長美墨邊境隔離墻就是一個象征。在擴大合法渠道方面缺乏進展，這迫使更多移民將非法越境和庇護申請視為進入美國的最佳途徑。

Some immigration experts, noting the failure of comprehensive reform, think piecemeal efforts may offer hope. But the legislative maths is daunting, requiring votes from ten Republican senators for anything to pass. Even within the Democratic Party, some officials are wary of looking soft on border security. “We are in a very defensive position,” says a congressional aide close to immigration discussions. “It’s important to continue to remind everybody about the extreme economic impact that inaction is having,” says Bob Menendez, a Democratic senator.

一些移民專家注意到全面改革的失敗，他們認為零星的努力也可能會帶來希望。但是立法方面的“數(shù)學問題”令人生畏的，任何法案的通過都需要10名共和黨參議員的支持。即使在民主黨內(nèi)部，一些官員也擔心在邊境安全問題上顯得軟弱。一位接近移民討論的國會助理表示:“我們處于非常保守的立場?！?民主黨參議員鮑勃?梅南德斯表示:“重要的是要繼續(xù)提醒每個人，不作為會對經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生極端影響?！?/p>

There is no shortage of sensible ideas. Connecting migrants with employers before they reach America’s southern border would reduce pressure on crossings and help businesses. Marianne Wanamaker, who served as an economic adviser in Mr Trump’s White House, argues that getting rid of visa caps for specific occupations would also alleviate worker shortages. “We have tools available to us to resolve labour issues that we don’t appear willing to use,” she says. “That is the result of years and years of making immigration a third rail of American politics.” The conclusion is a dismal one: the headaches of the past year from worker shortages, far from being temporary, will be a recurrent problem in an ageing America that has forgotten how immigrants made the country what it is.

明智的想法從不會短缺。在移民到達美國南部邊境之前，將他們與雇主聯(lián)系起來，這將減少過境的壓力，并有助于企業(yè)的發(fā)展。曾在特朗普的白宮擔任經(jīng)濟顧問的瑪麗安?沃納梅克辯稱，取消特定職業(yè)的簽證上限也將緩解勞動力短缺。她表示:“我們擁有解決勞動力問題的工具，但我們似乎不愿意使用。這是多年來把移民問題變成美國政治議題的一個雷區(qū)的結果?！?結論令人沮喪：在過去一年里，勞動力短缺所帶來的問題，令人頭痛，且遠非暫時性問題，這將成為已經(jīng)忘記了移民是如何造就了這個國家的不斷老齡化的美國的一個經(jīng)常性問題。