原文標(biāo)題：
Fair warning
El Ni?o has started. Preparations must too
It will bring chaotic weather to much of the world
合理警告
厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象已經(jīng)開(kāi)始，必須做好準(zhǔn)備工作
它將給世界大部分地區(qū)帶來(lái)混亂的天氣

[Paragraph 1]
CALIFORNIA RARELY sees the types of hurricanes and storms that routinely pummel Florida, Louisiana and Texas.
加州很少像佛州、路易斯安那和德克薩斯州那樣經(jīng)常遭受颶風(fēng)和風(fēng)暴襲擊。

But on August 20th tropical storm Hilary slammed into it from the south. Unprecedented amounts of rain pelted downtown Los Angeles and flooded the state’s arid valleys.
但8月20日，熱帶風(fēng)暴“希拉里”從南部襲擊了加州。史無(wú)前例的降雨量砸在了洛杉磯市中心，并淹沒(méi)了加州干旱的山谷地區(qū)。

Without missing a beat, forecasts then shifted from drenching to baking, as a heat dome fastened itself over much of the southern United States all the way up to the Great Lakes.
緊接著，天氣預(yù)報(bào)從暴雨轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭釤?，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)熱帶高壓圈覆蓋了南部美國(guó)，且一直延伸到五大湖地區(qū)。

[Paragraph 2]
Barely a day has gone by this summer without news of some extreme weather somewhere in the world.
今年夏天，世界上幾乎沒(méi)有一天不發(fā)生極端天氣。

Although weather is always breaking records, that raises fears of what it will be like when the climate warms further.
盡管天氣總在刷新紀(jì)錄，但這引發(fā)了人們對(duì)氣候進(jìn)一步變暖時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么樣子的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

To add to the alarm, America’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration announced the arrival of El Ni?o, a climate pattern that shows up every two to seven years and raises global temperatures.
為了加大警惕，美國(guó)國(guó)家海洋和大氣管理局宣布厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的到來(lái)，這種氣候模式每2-7年出現(xiàn)一次，會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球氣溫上升。

[Paragraph 3]
As a consequence, there is a good chance that this will be the hottest year on record; and that 2024 will be hotter still, with temperatures approaching 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
因此，今年很有可能成為有記錄以來(lái)最熱的一年；2024 年將會(huì)更加炎熱，氣溫將比工業(yè)化前水平高出近 1.4°C。

Some tropical regions will suffer damaging floods, and others will suffer droughts, with worrying consequences for food supplies and the spread of disease.
一些熱帶地區(qū)將遭受毀滅性的洪水，而其他地區(qū)將飽受干旱之苦，這將給糧食供應(yīng)和疾病傳播帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重后果。

As with climate change itself, the time to prepare for the coming upheaval of El Ni?o is now.
與應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化本身一樣，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該為即將到來(lái)的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象做好充分準(zhǔn)備。

[Paragraph 4]
On current forecasts, this El Ni?o is likely to be a strong one.
根據(jù)目前的預(yù)測(cè)，這輪厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象可能會(huì)很?chē)?yán)重。

The last such cycle was in 2014-16, and was ruinous in the countries it hit hardest.
上一輪厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象發(fā)生在2014-2016年，給受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家造成了嚴(yán)重破壞。

Droughts led South African food production to fall to a 20-year low and ignited one of Indonesia’s worst-ever spates of wildfires.
干旱導(dǎo)致南非糧食產(chǎn)量降至 20 年來(lái)的最低水平，并引發(fā)了印度尼西亞有史以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的一次野火肆虐。

At the same time warmer and wetter weather fuelled disease across South America, including the worst outbreak of infections from the Zika virus in 65 years.
與此同時(shí)，濕熱的氣候?qū)е履厦乐藜膊÷?，其中包?65 年來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的寨卡病毒感染疫情。

[Paragraph 5]
One reason the effects of this El Ni?o are likely to be severe is that they will be felt on top of more global warming.
這輪厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象的影響很可能會(huì)非常嚴(yán)重，原因之一是它將疊加在全球變暖的背景下。

Although it is only just getting going—El Ni?os are named after the baby Jesus because they tend to peak around Christmas—it has already contributed to the closure of the world’s largest fishery, as anchovies have fled the coastal waters of Peru.
雖然厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象才剛剛開(kāi)始——厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象以圣嬰耶穌的名字命名，因?yàn)槎驙柲嶂Z現(xiàn)象往往在圣誕節(jié)前后達(dá)到高峰——但它已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致了世界上最大的漁業(yè)的關(guān)閉，因?yàn)槊佤斞睾Ｋ虻镍P尾魚(yú)已經(jīng)逃離。

It has also rocked the global rice market, as India has pre-emptively banned most exports of its crop.
由于印度已經(jīng)預(yù)先禁止了大部分大米的出口，這也震動(dòng)了全球大米市場(chǎng)。

[Paragraph 6]
Humanitarian agencies have warned about the threats to food security and sanitation and from outbreaks of disease including malaria, dengue and cholera in large parts of Africa and South America.
人道主義機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)警告稱(chēng)，非洲和南美地區(qū)的大部分地區(qū)糧食安全、衛(wèi)生以及瘧疾、登革熱和霍亂等疾病爆發(fā)方面面臨威脅。

South-East Asia is likely to see excessively hot and dry weather. Widespread fires in Indonesia could affect air quality across Asia.
東南亞可能會(huì)遭受異常炎熱和干旱的天氣。印度尼西亞的大規(guī)?；馂?zāi)可能會(huì)影響整個(gè)亞洲的空氣質(zhì)量。

[Paragraph 7]
Frightening as these dangers are, it is possible to prepare for some of them before they strike.
盡管這些危險(xiǎn)令人恐懼，但我們可以在其中一些危險(xiǎn)發(fā)生之前做好準(zhǔn)備。

Seasonal forecasts are much more reliable than they were in 2014-16.
與 2014-16 年相比，本輪季節(jié)性預(yù)測(cè)要可靠得多。

These can help steer funds in order to improve water infrastructure pre-emptively, for example, or to reinforce buildings in regions likely to be hit by storms—rather than after disaster has struck.
這些預(yù)測(cè)可以幫助合理分配資金，例如及時(shí)改善水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，或者加固那些可能受到風(fēng)暴襲擊的地區(qū)的建筑物，而不是等到災(zāi)害發(fā)生后才采取行動(dòng)。

By wisely building resilience before an El Ni?o, you can minimise the damage and hence the spending on emergency help and repairs.
在厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象來(lái)臨之前，提高抗災(zāi)能力是明智之舉，這樣可以最大限度地減少損失，從而減少用于緊急救援和維修的開(kāi)支。

[Paragraph 8]
Some aid agencies are indeed using better forecasts to start planning ahead.
一些援助機(jī)構(gòu)確實(shí)正在利用更好的預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)提前進(jìn)行規(guī)劃。

The World Health Organisation has begun working with the World Meteorological Organisation so that it can successfully predict where best to allocate medical supplies and personnel.
例如，世界衛(wèi)生組織已開(kāi)始與世界氣象組織合作，以便能夠成功預(yù)測(cè)最佳醫(yī)療物資和人員分配的地點(diǎn)。

[Paragraph 9]
This is just a tiny fraction of the aid that is needed.
這只是所需援助的冰山一角。

Only 1% of disaster funding raised through UN appeals between 2014 and 2017 was allocated in advance, despite one in five events being highly predictable.
在2014年至2017年間，通過(guò)聯(lián)合國(guó)呼吁籌集的賑災(zāi)資金中，盡管1/5的事件高度可預(yù)測(cè)，但僅有1%的資金可提前分配。

Natural disasters were estimated to have affected 185m people worldwide last year, but fewer than 4m were helped through anticipatory measures.
據(jù)估計(jì)，去年全球有 1.85 億人受災(zāi)，但只有不到400萬(wàn)災(zāi)民通過(guò)預(yù)防措施得到了幫助。

[Paragraph 10]
The trouble is that many of the countries which will bear the brunt of the effects of El Ni?o are still reeling from previous disasters.
問(wèn)題在于，許多即將首當(dāng)其沖受到厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象影響的國(guó)家，仍在從之前的災(zāi)難后遺癥中苦苦掙扎。

Some of those are linked to past episodes of extreme droughts and floods, others to the lingering effects of covid-19 and the spike in food prices caused by the war in Ukraine.
其中一些與過(guò)去的特大干旱和洪水有關(guān)，另一些則與新冠疫情的持續(xù)影響以及烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致的糧食價(jià)格上漲有關(guān)。

It is a reminder of the difficulties of dealing with climate change: stresses come thick and fast without giving governments and societies enough time to recover.
這提醒我們應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的困難：?jiǎn)栴}層出不窮，而政府和社會(huì)沒(méi)有足夠的時(shí)間來(lái)恢復(fù)。

Yet that only strengthens the case for helping countries that cannot afford to pay for their own preparations.
然而，這只是增加了“需要幫助那些無(wú)力承擔(dān)自身準(zhǔn)備費(fèi)用的國(guó)家”的理由。

Whoever foots the bill, it is a false economy to skimp on spending today when there is a known chance of disaster tomorrow.
不管由誰(shuí)承擔(dān)費(fèi)用，在已知明天可能發(fā)生災(zāi)害的情況下，今天節(jié)省開(kāi)支是一種錯(cuò)誤的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為。

（恭喜讀完，本篇英語(yǔ)詞匯量825左右）
原文出自：2023年8月26日《The Economist》Leaders版塊

精讀筆記來(lái)源于：自由英語(yǔ)之路

本文翻譯整理: Irene

本文編輯校對(duì): Irene
僅供個(gè)人英語(yǔ)學(xué)習(xí)交流使用。

【補(bǔ)充資料】（來(lái)自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)）
厄爾尼諾El Ni?o一詞來(lái)源于西班牙語(yǔ)，原意為“圣嬰”。19世紀(jì)初，在南美洲的厄瓜多爾、秘魯?shù)任靼嘌勒Z(yǔ)系的國(guó)家，漁民們發(fā)現(xiàn)，每隔幾年，從10月至第二年的3月便會(huì)出現(xiàn)一股沿海岸南移的暖流，使表層海水溫度明顯升高。南美洲的太平洋東岸本來(lái)盛行的是秘魯寒流，隨著寒流移動(dòng)的魚(yú)群使秘魯漁場(chǎng)成為世界三大漁場(chǎng)之一，但這股暖流一出現(xiàn)，性喜冷水的魚(yú)類(lèi)就會(huì)大量死亡，使?jié)O民們?cè)馐軠珥斨疄?zāi)。由于這種現(xiàn)象最嚴(yán)重時(shí)往往在圣誕節(jié)前后，于是遭受天災(zāi)而又無(wú)可奈何的漁民將其稱(chēng)為上帝之子－－圣嬰。

【重點(diǎn)句子】（3個(gè)）
Some tropical regions will suffer damaging floods, and others will suffer droughts, with worrying consequences for food supplies and the spread of disease.
一些熱帶地區(qū)將遭受毀滅性的洪水，而其他地區(qū)將飽受干旱之苦，這將給糧食供應(yīng)和疾病傳播帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重后果。

Frightening as these dangers are, it is possible to prepare for some of them before they strike.
盡管這些危險(xiǎn)令人恐懼，但我們可以在其中一些危險(xiǎn)發(fā)生之前做好準(zhǔn)備。

It is a reminder of the difficulties of dealing with climate change: stresses come thick and fast without giving governments and societies enough time to recover.
這提醒我們應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的困難：?jiǎn)栴}層出不窮，而政府和社會(huì)沒(méi)有足夠的時(shí)間來(lái)恢復(fù)。